Moon Landing - The Cheong Wa Dae Curse

Is MOON Jae-in losing it? Is the Cheong Wa Dae curse eventually catching up with him? How much is this weird leadership crisis affecting Korea's future? And to start with, am I sounding a bit too dramatic?

Last year (see "Checks and balances"), I singled out "three disturbingly noxious axes" around which MOON's very character was being questioned:

• is he being too much played by KIM Jong-un? 
• is he letting ideology too much undermine the economy? 
• is he taking too much liberty with separation of powers?

Since then, the least one could say is that MJI did nothing to clear mounting fears around these axes. Worse, the way he's coping with CHO Kuk scandals is now threatening his whole presidency to its very core.

MOON's controversial decision to stop sharing intelligence with Japan as a retaliation to Shinzo Abe's trade war on Korea perfectly illustrates the malaise around all three axes:

• North Korea? Clearly the biggest winner of this decision (not to mention China or Russia, also pleased to see the ROK-US-Japan tripartite alliance weakened in a most sensible part). South Korea has the most to lose as KIM Jong-un's most exposed neighbor, and MOON appears once more as someone eager to seize any alibi to undermine his own country's security in favor of the North.
• The economy? By retaliating on political and military dimensions, MOON plays ABE's hand, and makes it even more difficult to quickly solve an already tricky trade conflict that impacts key parts of Korea's badly weakened economy. If ABE started the trade war as the one shooting himself in the foot ("Japan v. Japan - Artificial Belligerence v. Artificial Intelligence"), MOON not only follows suit, but does so with a bazooka.
• Democracy? Pulling out of 'GSOMIA'* grabs all headlines when MOON needs a diversion from the CHO Kuk scandal. The decision came out of the blue (house), without a proper debate on the impacts.

If this looks bad, what to say of MOON's obstination to support CHO Kuk, his Justice minister nominee?

Every day brings new revelations about CHO's misdeeds. The man who posed as a champion against corruption managed to bring back memories of the two most corrupt characters in the saga that led to PARK Geun-hye's impeachment: like him, CHOI Soon-sil erected an outrageous system to illegally favor her daughter's studies and career, and like him, WOO Byung-woo brought shame on SNU Law School by bending law to destroy justice.

The controversial CHO Kuk

CHO's nomination for justice seems doomed, yet MOON Jae-in keeps supporting him as stubbornly as he does for economic advisers that have like himself no clues about economics, and accelerate a downward spiral ahead of the upcoming global downturn.

The case of CHO is much more serious, and existential for MOON, but all in denial, he doesn't seem to realize what's at stake. Everybody knew he was weak on North Korea and the economy, but failing on the very values that brought him there, on justice, on fairness, on transparency... this is the ultimate betrayal, and the president is already losing his base: recent polls show that a majority of youth have now a negative opinion of him. And Korea University students as well as Seoul National University students are starting to demonstrate following the footsteps of Ewha students, who started the movement that brought down PARK, and set the tone with apolitical approaches, focusing on wrongs to be fixed (CHOI Soon-sil's daughter benefited from illegal support at Ewha, CHO's daughter at KU).


The onus is also on lawmakers from the ruling party, who will have to face the consequences of enabling this mess (if not to face history the way GOP congressmen will for enabling Trump)... but no one wants to be the catalyst before the elections, and the scapegoat for the rout. 

No political leader, left, center, or right, seems to stand out as a credible solution for the future. Could a dangerous populist emerge from the ashes of burned illusions? Korea deserves so much better. It proved so beautifully that it could rise to the highest ideals of democracy.

Of course MOON Jae-in doesn't risk impeachment for defending one rotten apple, but his capacity to run the country could be seriously challenged if he loses all support, further undermining an already weakened nation. So let's hope the President sees reason before it's too late.

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* General Security Of Military Information Agreement

All options on the table

Many Korean correspondents in DC have recently shared their highest fears ever over risks of war in the Peninsula, and we can only hope that Donald TRUMP's new envoy to Korea, USS Carl Vinson, won't have to grow more talkative than 'Elusivarus Rex' Rex TILLERSON...

All options are on the table

On one hand, it's scary enough to see this short-fused POTUS pull out a new deadly toy in the region just days after striking Syria...

'The Hustler? XI Jinping not comfortable with Trump's 8 ball Syria-North Korea combo (KIM Jong-un unhappy with Syria strikes) - Heng cartoon' (20170410 - twitter.com/theseoulvillage/status/851233905646555140)

... On the other hand, the US can't find comfort in the fact that the DPRK's ICBMs needs some more time to reach its mainland: KIM Jong-un proved that he could already strike with precision all the US bases in the region, giving its forces a decisive head start when the gimchi hits the fan.

And I feel just a bit less worried now that Steve BANNON will get fewer chances to chime in where it matters most:

Steve BANNON can't always control himself. Please don't let him walk again.

Of course, all this happens less than a month before the elections in South Korea, where victory seems granted to either the untested AHN Cheol-soo, or the divisive MOON Jae-in. Can the former resist G2 pressure (Trump-Xi)? Can the latter be harder than tofu against KJU?

For the moment, even if all options are on the table here as well, MOON confirms that he can't build trust beyond his own base, and that his easiest path to victory lies in the emergence of small candidates dividing the votes. 

AHN Hee-jung trapped in unwinnable primaries and refocusing on 2022, and conservatives failing to find a champion, Cheol-soo quickly and effortlessly gathered across the aisle the Anyone-But-Moon front, and toughened up enough to show that this time he will go all the way. Recent polls give him the lead in both 5 and 6 candidates scenarii:

'For the first time, a poll with 6 candidates shows AHN Cheol-soo ahead of MOON Jae-in (Chosun Ilbo). Later still can't reach beyond own base' (20170409 - twitter.com/theseoulvillage/status/851043736951824384)
'Yonhap-KBS poll with 5 candidates confirms AHN Cheol-soo's lead over MOON Jae-in. <20 a="" href="http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/news/2017/04/09/0200000000AEN20170409003900315.html" no="" regional="" rifts="" target="_blank" undecided="">english.yonhapnews.co.kr/news/2017/04/09/0200000000AEN20170409003900315.html' (20170410 - twitter.com/theseoulvillage/status/851227886631624704)

For the moment, HONG Jun-pyo, SIM Sang-jung, and YOO Seong-min don't syphon many votes out of the AHN wave. As he focuses on attacking MOON, KIM Chong-in could become more audible, but he doesn't represent the future either.

Interesting to see the latest poll* in detail:
- the traditional age rifts diminish (the younger generation still favor MOON, but less than before, and 'only' until 50)
- the traditional regional rifts seems less relevant (AHN leads in Jeolla-do - where he claimed many seats - and Gwangju as well as in conservative strongholds - Daegu and Gyeongsang-do rally behind him)
- fewer than 20% remain undecided

It will be more about character and issues than ideology. So get ready for April surprises.

A positive April surprise would be the arrest of WOO Byung-woo. Korean justice needs to be purged from its enemies from within, but compromission is so pervasive that many could fall, and one can wonder if judges and prosecutors will have the courage to open Pandora's box. 

Still better than a nuclear explosion. And as the myth goes, hope appears only after all evils have been released from the box. 

But as the percentage of judges who keep heading for the same friendly structures after retirement tells us, the capacity to achieve total success looks like the ultimate myth.


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* "Ahn beats Moon for first time in hypothetical five-way race: poll" (Yonhap News 20170410)

Of power vacua and excesses

As expected (see "The Fall Of The House Of Park"), there's a de facto power vacuum in South Korea, where President PARK Geun-hye, plagued by the CHOI Soon-sil scandal, is every day more unlikely to finish her mandate.

The Korean people is quasi unanimous, and honored this nation's democracy through the most massive and perfect demonstration in the heart of Seoul.

If ever the stubborn PGH doesn't seem ready to step down, it's basically a matter of how and when. The opposition demands an immediate resignation, which would allow MOON Jae-in, AHN Cheol-soo, and PARK Won-soon to run, and what's left of the ruling party would prefer an impeachment that would take much more time, and allow BAN Ki-moon to join the race. 

The Saenuri implosion was already acted when the pro-Park faction confirmed its lock on the party, months ago. And such conservative media as Chosun Ilbo and Joongang Ilbo / JTBC are playing active roles in exposing scandals as they come.

Beyond CHOI Soon-sil and PARK Geun-hye, the case of WOO Byung-woo could turn out to be the most crucial for the future of South Korea democracy, because it exposes corruption at the core of justice. Judging by the doubts surrounding the former prosecutor's own prosecutors, it won't be easily done.

I often worry about the fragile balance of powers in South Korea (for instance in 2012 - see "25 years later"). And that essential dimension of democracy must be reaffirmed now that democracy itself is struggling across the globe.

Without waiting for the next lame duck to claim Cheong Wa Dae, the Asia Pacific region is celebrating the arrival of yet another controversial leader with a questionable vision of democracy: this scary motley crew (KIM Jong-un, Vladimir PUTIN, Shinzo ABE, Narendra MODI, XI Jinping, Rodrigo DUTERTE...) welcomes Donald TRUMP, who will soon have an access to both the nuclear and the POTUS twitter account codes. 

What could possibly go wrong?

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