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Showing posts with label economy. Show all posts
Showing posts with label economy. Show all posts

Friday, January 2, 2026

Seoul Village Season XX

Welcome to 2026, the year of the Red Horse! I know, technically, we have to wait for the lunar new year and some may prefer the Fire Horse moniker but anyway, here's an AI generated beast for all of you:


Change, bold choices, that's what's supposedly in store for the new year.

Korea experienced its share of changes in 2025, but they were expected:

  • YOON Suk-yeol's impeachment was confirmed
  • LEE Jae-myung managed to elude justice and get elected
  • Korea has de facto become a single-party nation, and not the party the disgraced president wanted 

A single party nation?

YOON's party - which never really was his - is in shambles. And that's not the first time: the PPP failed to truly reform itself (beyond rebranding) after PARK Geun-hye's impeachment, and it doesn't seem willing to evolve following YOON's either. In fact, this election losing machine succeeded only in 2022, when the DPK led the national shoot-yourself-in-the-foot contest with a LEE Jae-myung ensnared in scandals and a then highly unpopular president MOON Jae-in creating a most unlikely candidate (YOON) that had no choice but to join the other side... Today, this party doesn't seem to have any future.

Meanwhile, to secure his own future, LEE Jae-myung managed to seize both the stick (full control of justice) and the carrot (direct control of finance). In the most Trumpian fashion, he's now enjoying the retribution time of his life, siccing justice even at OH Se-hoon, who had no involvement whatsoever in YOON's martial law disaster, but remains his number one target for the 2026 local elections. DP candidate CHONG Won-o is already catching up with the Seoul mayor.

On the diplomatic front, LEE has been very active and well beyond the long planned APEC 2025 summit in Gwangju. As expected, he reconnected with North Korea and China. He's visiting XI Jinping very soon, but KIM Jong-un is not as responsive as planned - probably vaxxed by earlier disillusions from the TRUMP I era, and most certainly not thrilled by the new POTROK's surprising request for a nuclear submarine from Uncle Sam (on the other hand, that OPCON transfer...). Also surprising: LEE cozying up with Japan. XI might ask him to chose sides wisely.

On the domestic front, a few good news: the demographic uptick started 16 months ago has not been disturbed by the domestic turmoil, the presidency returned to Cheong Wa Dae, and exports rebounded (Korean cosmetics rule, semiconductors had a good year...). But the Korean Won nosedived, protectionism returned, the household and national debts kept creeping up, costly gifts to stimulate consumption further damaged the balance, and Korea can't afford a Japan-style headlong flight.

But at least, Korea beat another Netflix record with Kedeheon / 케데헌*.


As much as I enjoyed K-Pop Demon Hunters' catchy OST and many references to the Korean culture, it felt visually closer to a manga or anime than to a manhwa. Even that big cat seemed to come straight from Studio Ghibli. But K-pop itself stole from all over the map, so let's not bicker and enjoy while it lasts.

 

Because the billions Netflix poured in Korea following Squid Game are coming to an end, and the platform is diversifying its sources across the region - expect a lot of BL from Thailand.

So yes, BTS will drop a new album in March, but other pillars of the creative industry are struggling (see "A Fade Out - Not 'The End'"), and the world will also want new stuff. If it wants to remain a cultural leader**, Korea will need to once more reinvent itself, to move out of its creative comfort zone. 


Seoul Village 2026
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* over 325M views for the first 91 days vs over 265M for Squid Game in 2021 (+22%, but the number of Netflix subs grew by 36% in the meantime).

** see "Can Korea sustain its cultural leadership?"

Wednesday, January 1, 2025

Seoul Village Season XIX

At long last, Korea's miserable month of December 2024 is over. You'd think it'd be hard to top two presidential impeachments sandwiched between two major disasters (YOON Suk-yeol's short-lived martial law and Jeju Air's tragic plane crash), but 2025 doesn't bode very well either for a nation on the ropes. 

Whoever is the next president will have a hard time rebuilding hope and trust at home as well as overseas, provided that's on their menu.

In the short term, acting president CHOI Sang-mok is unlikely to achieve anything significant and until the elections at least, the opposition is unlikely to contribute to reviving an anemic economy it's been undermining for years. As for the long term. this Dark December most probably annihilated that recent, timid demographic uptick (belated COVID rebound?) as radically as those politically motivated budget cuts sacrificing Korea's future growth engines (goodbye innovation and quantum computing).

Korea's competitive edge and survival are also at risk with the return of Trump to the White House.

In the 1991 blockbuster Terminator 2: Judgement Day, Arnold Schwarzenegger returned as a force of good in total contrast with a first opus where he pretty much destroyed everything. But that's fiction and in Trump's T2, The Donald is unlikely to fundamentally change characters. Actually, DJT already hired 'Dark MAGA' Elon Musk for the role of Robert Patrick: T-!000, a fitter, slicker, updated version of the bulletproof killing machine programmed to help Skynet / Space X control the World. Anyway, doomsday scenario or not, this sequel promises to be less boring than Kamala Harris' short-lived B2: Statu Quo.

Both sides of the DMZ are watching closely.

KIM Jong-un knows he can't trust Trump, and he's already busy with another transactional buddy, Vladimir Putin. With his 'Juche Line' and 'Sunshine Line' in tatters, KIM somehow balances the 'Beijing Line' with a 'Kremlin Line' that provides oil, currencies, and statesman credentials against disposables (weapons and cannon fodder). 

Whoever is in charge in Seoul, lines will change and the US military presence of South Korea will be reevaluated by a man who already proved he could betray and abandon brothers in arms (ask the Kurds and Afghans if they believe one second Trump's commitment to Koreans is ironclad). We know Trump wants to withdraw, and that Mike Pompeo advised him (as Mark Esper revealed) to delay such a risky move to his second term. We know that this time he'll be surrounded by incompetent yes-men in the White House and in a greater section of Congress. We also know that Marco Rubio wouldn't be okay with abandoning Asia to China, but that he won't be calling the shots...

Should LEE Jae-myeong become the next president, he could even accelerate the withdrawal process. And he certainly wouldn't compensate with a NATO style alliance with Japan and Taiwan, like the one floated here and there as a second Trump mandate looked inevitable.

But LEE himself is a very transactional guy, and he could sing Trump a different kind of serenade than the one YOON sang to Biden. 

Besides, Korea Inc have more than a few chips on the table. Samsung, SK Hynix and Co. also fear another kind of withdrawal: the subsidies guaranteed under Joe Bden's CHIPS act. CHEY Tae-won already warned SK might reconsider its massive investment in Indiana, where both senators are Republicans... like in Texas, where Samsung extends its Austin plant and builds a new one in Taylor...

At worst very conflictual, at best very transactional, this year of the blue snake looks pretty sneaky. 

Nonetheless, let's wish ourselves a happy new year 2025.

"#Trump returns. To #KyoboBookstore, #Seoul:" (20241129 post by Seoul Village on Bluesky)


Seoul Village 2025
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Tuesday, December 12, 2023

Can Korea sustain its cultural leadership?

Has Korea become a cultural leader and if so, what kind of leadership are we talking about, what drove this change, and can this momentum last?

In 'Can Korea sustain its cultural leadership?', an article published by the think tank 'Korea Europe & You' (20231111), I suggest a few threads.

---

Can Korea Sustain its Cultural Leadership?
Beyond the Korean waves, a vast ocean and growing expectations

At this moment in time, Korea can be considered as if not the, at least a cultural leader. But what kind of leadership are we talking about, and can this momentum last?

For now, Korea’s cultural leadership is recognized by the masses as well as by experts and elites:

  • Popular leadership? A legitimate claim when you produce such global phenomena as (yes, them again) PSY, Squid Game, or BTS.

  • Cutting edge leadership? Impossible to top the technical and visual perfection of K-pop groups developed like high tech products over years of intense training by ultra-pro entertainment companies; hard to rival with a creative ecosystem that churns out every year scores of One Source Multi Use or transmedia hits (webnovel-webtoon-seriesgames-OST…).

  • Avant-garde leadership? Elites consider the nation as a whole as the ultimate influencer and trendsetter. This is where you post your observers and researchers if you want to detect the next big thing; this is where you scout your curator if you want your art institution to shine; this is where you let your kid study for one semester even if you know they just come to live the Hallyu life – who knows, some of that magic could rub off on them...

If Korea’s cultural leadership translates into considerable economic impacts, and not just for Korea Inc, the nation as a whole is not perceived as an overpowering or threatening leader. Unlike the United States, China, or Japan in the late 80s, Korea has never been a contender for the World’s biggest economy. This tiny peninsula (de facto an island) surrounded by bullies and hosting only 0.6% of mankind is more a David than a Goliath. Korea didn’t force respect by the scale of its market; rather through repeated over-performances. Even Korea’s soft power heroes look pretty soft: a buffoon performing a silly horse dance, losers trapped in a survival game, cute youngsters heralding love and compassion… not really Rambo material.

Without dictating anything, Korea somehow manages to set the tone, the pace, the rhythm. This strange leader is more inspirational than visionary, more praised for its way of sorting things out than for its charisma or authority. Clearly, this is not the kind of leader you fear, rather the kind you enjoy being around, the kind you like to follow.

Quite a quantum leap from Korea the ultimate best follower, the ‘we try harder’ Korea, the benchmark fanatic always eager to close the gap with unattainable role models. Yes, Korea has long been a role model for developing countries, but being looked up to by cultural superpowers, that’s a completely different game.

Korea couldn’t have reached the top by just following others. It took a cultural change to become a cultural leader. In turn, this leadership is now changing the very way Koreans see themselves.

Good artists copy, great artists steal’, and Korea didn’t hesitate to source creative talents overseas, particularly from Europe. For instance, many K-pop hits were made with the help of Swedish music producers, and Hyundai Motor Group owes in part its cultural revolution to Peter Schreyer, the German designer recruited in 2006 (a model recently followed by Korea’s fashion industry with Belgian designers). Yet opening up the creative pool or attracting the best talents shouldn’t be seen as a sign of weakness, rather as smart decisions to lead a group to the next level.

Protecting the local creative ecosystem when it was too weak was also good leadership because it was designed to help it grow stronger, not just curl up defensively. A few decades after Hollywood threatened to overwhelm Korea’s movie industry, a subtitled Korean movie triumphed at the Oscars, and Busan International Film Festival has become a locomotive for all Asian cinemas. If France inspired Korea to take action (screen quotas in 1995, BIFF in 1996), now the former is more trying to learn from the latter, and the recently created Academie France Coree du Cinema puts both nations on the same footing.

Korea’s startup scene wasn’t weak to start with, but it became even more competitive after Google, Facebook, or big international VCs barged in, offering new alternatives and global perspectives: local players upped their game, and young talents became less reluctant to start their own business or to join a startup instead of aiming for the usual conglomerate. A lot of them fail, but the local ecosystem needed talents who accept failure and risks as part of the creative process and their own training. Even beyond tech sectors, the lack of perspectives in the job market also forced many to try and create their own niches, to seek different approaches. Now Korea’s young leaders in tech are not chaebol heirs anymore, but successful entrepreneurs – a genuine cultural revolution.

If external influences did contribute to Korea’s cultural change, that’s only in supporting roles, as accelerators or catalysts for a country that still depends a lot on others for its survival (food, energy, raw materials, exports, security…). The nation’s fabled resilience became universally acknowledged during the pandemic: when other nations were at a standstill, Korea kept producing series and movies or holding art exhibitions, catching all the spotlight and drawing all media attention (coincidentally, the New York Times chose Seoul to move its Hong Kong hub in 2020). More eyes on the nation, more stories exposing all sides, even the dark ones (after all, isn’t that what many ‘k-contents’ are about?)... for better or worse, Korea was in the news, Korea became the news.

Now it’s not just the core K-drama fans that are familiar with how Koreans live, eat, love, work, or struggle; everybody knows what’s happening here, and many have realized that beyond Hallyu and K-pop, beyond these repeated Korean waves, a vast and diverse cultural ocean waited to be discovered.

Of course, Korea has brilliant creators, top notch players, and a (sometimes too) proactive government, but as always, its most precious natural resource remains its people. Many have in mind the usual cliché of the ever resilient, hard-working Korean that helped the nation become the best follower of the pack, but the shift to leadership was made possible by the growing influence of different profiles: not just these elites of young risk takers with innovative mindsets, but also masses of merciless ubersumers.

Korean ubersumers want everything now and exactly as they want it. They may not have much money or power as individuals, but collectively their reviews can make or break everything they touch. They’re the ones who force webtoonists and webnovelists to fine tune their series in real time and improve their stories after each episode, they’re the ones who make Korean cosmetics so competitive (and they already have to be to resit such extreme winters and summers), they’re the ones who push customer and after sales services to their extreme limits, demanding absurd delivery delays or return rates.

Of course, companies have learned how to tame, cajole, or manipulate macro and even micro influencers, but netizens have also learned how to cut through corporate storytelling and to expose any weakness or wrongdoing. From product quality to food safety to abuses in the workplace, once something pops up somewhere, the culprits have no choice but to fix things or to go bust.

In a nation where one-term presidents become lame ducks as soon as they’re elected and where chaebols are losing some their overpowering grip, netizens have also become the only unchecked political power. This formidable force showed its most positive side during the unprecedented democratic movement that united the nation towards Park Geun-hye’s impeachment in 2017. But these crowd dynamics also have less positive effects: disinformation can spread like wildfire on both sides of the aisle, and ever-growing consumer demands can lead to non-sustainable standards (Korea’s excellence in last mile economics does have a social cost).

For better or worse, internet and mobility were from the beginning meant for such a reactive, swift, and (literally) interactive people. Here, User Generated Contents were harnessed much earlier than anywhere else in the World: the first social network service, Cyworld (1999), was launched long before MySpace (2003), and OhMyNews (2000) predated all other citizen journalism platforms. At the turn of the millennium, when all eyes were on Scandinavia or Japan, SK Telecom was the World’s most innovative operator but back then, only experts knew about what was going on in Korea, and language barriers prevented a global success, delaying at the same time the emergence of truly open and competitive models. Now Korea’s webtoon and webnovel platforms aim at global domination.

The key factors of success had been there for a long while, but the mirror effect from the rest of the World proved crucial for cultural changes to overcome certain inertia, for a people of great achievers to get used to being on top, to gain the confidence of leaders. Accolades for Bong Joon-ho’s ‘Parasite’ were less perceived as a surprise than as a long overdue recognition for Korean cinema. Cannes and Hollywood knew this movie was not a flash in the pan because they had already been impacted before by movies like Park Chan-wook’s ‘Old Boy’. And now even subtitles aren’t an obstacle for generations used to surfing videos full of captions and comments.

Can this momentum last? Momentum means mass in motion, and Korea’s challenge is getting at the same time tougher and easier: on one hand, this mass is growing and requires less effort to move, on the other, it’s getting harder to surprise audiences expecting more, to make a bigger splash than past giga-hits. Yet even if Korea can’t pull out another tsunami, a great part of the public is now aware of its ocean, its smaller waves get easily noticed, and even its wavelets enjoy a greater visibility and impact than before.

The pedagogy is done. A lot more dimensions of Korean culture have been exposed than the usual suspects (K-pop and Korean drama), and the classic pushing forces (Korean companies and authorities promoting k-content from home, ecstatic fans from overseas) have been joined by millions of people boasting a more direct contact to Korean culture after visiting the country and/or learning the language in record numbers. Foreign companies and institutions follow the demand and add their own pulling forces when they opt for Korean brand ambassadors, when they seek Korean contents for their cultural events.

The risk of K-fatigue remains, of course, particularly with that pervasive, heavy ‘K’ branding. But now that the World’s cultural taste buds have been trained to Korean contents, more people know about Korean music beyond K-pop, Korean series beyond K-drama, Korean food beyond K-food. More people appreciate good music, good series, good food that happen to be Korean or to have some Korean touch; and they don’t need all that branding anymore. Inviting top European chefs to Korea to discover, taste, and test Korean dishes and ingredients over a decade ago had probably much deeper and longer lasting effects than all these costly advertising campaigns for ‘K-food’.

One can also wonder if the recent boom in tourism can last, but even now that top destinations have reopened in the region following the pandemic, and even after such dramatic failures as the tragic Halloween 2022 Itaewon stampede or the embarrassing Jamboree 2023 meltdown, tourists keep coming in record numbers. And in spite of a tendency to disgrace each new popular spot with architecturally debatable landmarks, Korea has become an expert at turning its assets into sustainable magnets, proposing such unique experiences as hanok stay or temple stay, and boasting 16 sites and 22 intangible assets on the UNESCO World Heritage list today compared to zero until 1995.

Is there a risk of hubris, then, with Koreans basking in global recognition, and younger generations far less prone than their elders to an inferiority complex towards Foreigners? Well to start with, Koreans never had doubts about a culture they struggled to defend when it was under existential threat during the Japanese occupation. And their new confidence makes them more daring than arrogant: after overprotecting their traditional arts, they are now much more open to mix them with modern influences. Pansori became a rock opera at the Jeonju Sori Festival with Miyeon and Park Jechun, or a madcap pop performance with Leenalchi and Ambiguous Dance Company.

Korean culture is here to stay, but in order to maintain global relevance, embracing cultural diversity and crossfertilization will be key. Korea’s main cultural challenge will be to overcome persisting discrimination towards certain minorities, to remain a leader who opens doors for others as well, to succeed its evolution into a more multicultural society. This aging nation will lose 40% of its population by the end of the century, and can’t afford to waste the endless potential of future growth drivers: Korean diasporas, Foreign Koreanophiles, and most existentially multicultural nationals.


Seoul Village 2023
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Monday, July 4, 2022

Fire, fury, and de-escalation

As Seoul experiences its first tropical nights of the year, we're all wondering even more acutely how climate change will affect our daily lives in the peninsula.

First, climate change is already happening, and we already know for sure that global temperatures will rise higher than targeted during the Paris Agreement. Key tipping points have already been passed, from the ever-shrinking Amazon rain forest, now emitting more CO2 than it absorbs, to the vanishing glaciers and polar caps, to the geographically closer permafrost collapse.

Permafrost covers a quarter of exposed land surfaces on the Northern Hemisphere, releasing as it melts frightening volumes of methane in our atmosphere already saturated with greenhouse gases. If scientists have already estimated the ginormous volumes to come, it's very hard to predict how, at the local level, they will directly and indirectly disrupt currents that structurally impact (e.g. North Korea's colder seas, the Siberian air masses...). 

After a 20th century where Korea already underwent a rise of +1.8 Celsius in average temperature (more than the rest of the World), this one promises to go medieval: the 2020 South Korea Climate Change Assessment Report (Ministry of Environment and Korea Meteorological Administration) announced that by 2100, the number of heatwave days (over 33 celsius) would more than triple from 10.1 to 35.5 per year. Winters will be shortened by one whole month, and we'll experience more precipitations and extreme episodes.

 

Rise in numbers of heatwave days (business as usual scenario)

Over the past 30 years, I've seen Winters become not only less cold (e.g. the Han River seldom freezes beyond smaller patches), but also much drier, which probably contributes to wildfires that are more violent and difficult to tame (58% of them happen during the Spring, when the nation is at its driest). Mountain soils get washed away at the first rain, landslides and floods multiply, and as seas rise, whole ecosystems are bound to disappear (tidal flats, wetlands)...

Korea wildfires on March 5, 2022 (NASA)

The social, economic, political impacts of climate change can't be underestimated. Beyond competitiveness, that's a matter of survival, sometimes literally: the number of heat-related fatalities is expected to more than double by the end of the century, and diseases or pests that used to be contained to warmer climates are becoming endemic*.

Food security, highlighted by the war in Ukraine that exposed Korea's over-dependence on China for its sustenance, will become even more critical: by 2100, the production of rice will have dwindled by 25%. The stakes are even higher in North Korea, which relies much more on its own, ailing agricultural sector. In the region, logistics and geopolitics are already impacted by warmer seas (East Russia enjoys its own sea ports that don't freeze during the winters, new arctic routes emerge...). 

Korea destroyed its greenbelts, boosted its coal power, and crippled its nuclear power at the worst moment. In spite of a few significant projects, it's nowhere near it should be in renewables. Logically, the country scores very poorly when it should be setting the example:

Climate Action Tracker, Mars 2022

Water, biomass, and forest management is already a strategic challenge, particularly in a country where a lot of the trees share the same age thanks to the massive tree-planting campaign of the 60s. It would be nice to involve, once again, all the population in a collective effort that would benefit generations to come. 

Big cities, starting with Seoul, are already experimenting and benchmarking best practices, because everybody knows that when cities become the solution, differences can be made much faster. Obviously, a lot remains to be done. Making sure every new project should contribute to improving natural temperature control or water collection / management could help.

Korea tends to forget that its landscapes have been degraded far beyond urban environments, and again (see "From zombie maeul to seed village - from fake startup communities to real Communities-as-a-Startup"), the country must start reconsidering and rethinking its rural world as a key asset for the future.


Seoul Village 2022
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* BTW bad news on the pandemic front: experts expect a second massive wave of coronavirus cases from August as people will gather in confined, air conditioned area, and most of them will have lost a lot of resistance to the virus (most received their last dose of vaccine last year). 


Wednesday, September 22, 2021

Seoul 2030 - a software update

Mayor OH Se-hoon unveiled the 'Seoul Vision 2030' he announced on his inaugural address last April*, an occasion to highlight differences with his 'predesuccessor' PARK Won-soon.

By picking the slogan 'Seoul, a fair city that runs again', ever the ambitious OH delivers two not so subliminal political messages:

  • I want to rally all citizens who want an end to the unfair system that's controlling local and national politics, and 
  • it's not just Seoul that's moving again: I'm running again, with 2027 in sight.

The goal remains the same as a few months before he left office: to lift the capital into the World's top 5 cities. The difference is that since then, under PARK, Seoul has lost its momentum and regressed from 10th in 2010 to 17th last year, which makes the task all the more daunting. To foot the KRW 48 tn bill (USD 41 bn), OH bets on a surge in real estate revenues as well as on undisclosed budget trade-offs. Not sure the equation stands, but Seoul must do something to stop the bleeding as its population shrinks and its businesses struggle.

This 'Seoul Vision 2030' is more about software than about hardware. Typically, it doesn't challenge the urban planning part of 'Seoul Master Plan 2030' laid out in 2015, with its triangle of international hubs (historic center / Yeouido-Yeungdeungpo / Gangnam) and its 7 metropolitan hubs (Yongsan, Sangam-DMC-Susaek, Cheongnyangni-Wangsimni, Jamsil, Magok, Gasan-Daerim, Changdong-Sanggye). Such macro projects are freight trains that can't be rerouted at will. OH can't even stop lighter projects such as the controversial Gwanghwamun Square revamping**; only pause to adjust and adapt in order to limit the negative impacts and to improve urban continuity.

But of course, this being Seoul, a lot of real estate remains on the menu. And hundreds of thousands of new dwellings will be added to the existing oversupply.

The bad news is that redevelopment is unleashed on a large scale, with significant deregulation and the removal of key constraints (F.A.R.), and that a lot of the few remaining Seoul villages could suffer.

"Old #Seoul neighborhoods potentially open for redevelopment jumps from 14 to 50% through #Seoul's new #urbanism guidelines... brace for the worst." (20210527 - twitter.com/theseoulvillage/status/1397728062775513090)

Focusing around certain subway stations may help spare some of them, and result in Hapjeong-izing more neighborhoods (no mentions about new subway projects, but that could come, as usual, closer to next year's elections...):

"#Seoul confirms plan to 'revitalize' #subway station areas (250m radius around stations), starting with 13 pilot projects. Higher rise allowed, mixed uses residential / commercial / offices / services. Will #Hapjeong-style clusters multiply? I'd prefer more stations. #urbanism" (20210705 - twitter.com/theseoulvillage/status/1411963191089721346)
On the upside (literally), new neighborhood parks are planned in proto-urban limbos around Seoul mountains. If done properly (that's a big if), it could paradoxically protect the mountains themselves by creating sanitized but green buffer leisure spaces in stead of unlimited, littered gateways that push unruly crowds deeper into the wild. Most visitors would enjoy a pleasant moment without needing to reach any further, leaving more space to wildlife and respectful mountain lovers.
"#Seoul creates new neighborhood parks in decrepit mountainous areas where development projects have failed for 20 years, starting this year in #Cheonwangsan (#Cheongwandong and #Hangdong, #Gurogu) and #Choasan (#Changdong, #Dobonggu and later #Wolgyedong, #Nowongu). #urbanism"
(@theSeoulVillage 20210910 - twitter.com/theseoulvillage/status/1436132137258795017)

Seoul targets a 40% greenhouse gas reduction by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2050, but to achieve that, will it continue to outsource part of the dirty job to Gyeonggi-do (see "Seoul Power Play: One Less Nuclear Plant, One More Coal Plant")?

Obsessed with Seoul's business competitiveness, OH Se-hoon wants to seize a momentum and snatch as much of the Hong Kong exodus away from Singapore as possible, and to attract FDIs getting cautious about Korea's neighbors Japan (who wants to be the next Carlos GHOSN?) and China (hard-soft power supremacy challenged worldwide, investors wary of XI Jinping's authoritarian moves). Foreign media were already flocking in before South Korea's government pushed its own laws stiffling press freedom.  In that context, the creation of an agency modeled after Singapore's EDB makes perfect sense. How it articulates with existing entities (SBA etc) remains to be seen.

How Yeouido can turn into an international finance magnet without structural reforms at the national level also puzzles me.

Like during his first mandate, OH wants to boost international tourism, this time up to 20M visitors a year. He insists on culture which is of course essential, but that will take more than a 'Seoul Festa' and kpop events.

I'm more interested in how Seoul intends to nurture and boost the local startup ecosystem, deep and wide. Hosting 40 unicorns by 2030? that's mostly for the show. Building new clusters? as if there weren't enough already... I prefer the concept of mentoring programs for seniors: recent trends already show more 50-year+ executives joining previously almost exclusively young crews, but there's a need for a much broader-reaching, more inclusive approach. 

The 5 pillars of 'Seoul Vision 2030' are "fairness, coexistence, safety***, future sensitivity, global leadership", and 'future sensitivity' is a nice way of saying the whole population should be involved, innovation requires pedagogy and respect for everyone.

"Fairness", and "coexistence" are the most beautiful and difficult challenges. Seoul aims at equal opportunity, fostering women activity and youth employment, seniors access to lifelong learning programs, Seoul Learn online education platform for underprivileged students... Basic income will even be tested. Ending the gender war among younger generations should be added as a core Seoul Development Goal.

By the way, on Thursday, the 3rd SBAU (Seoul Biennale of Architecture and Urbanism) kicked off. An anticlimatic event in a most complex climate, but always the opportunity to connect a few new dots and to confront different visions of different cities:


Seoul Village 2021
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* The launch of a Seoul Vision 2030 Committee was the 5th pledged made by the new Seoul Mayor:

"
The 5 pledges of #Seoul mayor #OhSehoon (NB: good luck with that):" (@theSeoulVillage 20210428 - twitter.com/theseoulvillage/status/1387308187209015300)


** see among others "Gwanghwamun Square 3.0 re-Deep-Surfaces"

*** mostly in a pandemic context.

Tuesday, April 20, 2021

From zombie maeul to seed village - from fake startup communities to real Communities-as-a-Startup

As far as train wrecks go, the demographic ones are the easiest to predict. And Korea's bullet train is not exactly slowing down.

Last year, the nation officially posted its first negative growth on record, but COVID-19 had little to do with it. Yes, the pandemic claimed over one thousand lives and that's far too many, but that's also only a fraction of what most countries experienced. Yes, it hindered Foreign influx, but it also drew many members of the Korean diaspora back to the motherland. Yes, it will also impact future births, but last year only prolonged distressing trends: 2020's record low fertility rate (0.84) was preceded by an already scary one (0.92 in 2019).

If you think 2020 was bad, 2021 starts even worse...

... and the previous years already showed how bballi bballi Korea was aging even before the pandemic

In this sub-zero-sum game, the only regions that progressed spectacularly, Sejong and Gyeonggi-do, did it often at the expense of Seoul: the former benefiting from the transfer of governmental administrations, the latter from suicidal real estate policies that further accelerated the capital's decline (now well below the 10 M threshold it passed for the first time in 1988). Yet in March 2021, even Gyeonggi-do posted its first population decrease since the 1980s.

All over the nation, more rural localities are facing extinction*, and Korea continues its urbanistic nonsense, adding more dwellings to an already overflowing market because decision makers don't know any other translation of 'make homes more affordable' (what it needs) than 'build new homes' (which it doesn't need). I'll just repost below part of the rant I wrote five years ago (see "Seoul summerscapes: death, taxes, and budongsan" - 20160917, and all previous posts related to demography):

Now, the pandemic did act a bit like a catalyst at some level. If, so far, the nation hasn't implemented a real lockdown (except for Daegu), many have experienced remote working or remote learning at home in confined conditions. Like everywhere, many are dreaming of individual homes, more private space, a greener environment, many are reassessing their priorities, the rat race. And like everywhere, more city dwellers are considering rural lives. 

Of course, if there's always been a market for the Larzac / flower power fringes, most people wouldn't give up a certain level of services. And the 'winning' regions end up losing their souls when they pour concrete over their pristine shores to lure more city slickers (e.g. Jeju).

Can and should all rural communities be saved? I don't think so. But rural desertification can and should be prevented where it makes sense in a sustainable way.

Spontaneous grassroots initiatives can work, but local authorities can also play a role. What matters is that no one should play it selfishly, or with a short-term vision. Regional and national authorities an also help, particularly in order to mutualize and share resources and to make sure that as few people as possible fall out of the grid on key services and infrastructures.

Take the digital divide, for instance. Broadband coverage being strategic, it has become rather common for regulators and local authorities to push for network sharing schemes between operators, just like SK Telecom, KT Mobile, and LG U+ did last week: the government selected 131 rural and coastal areas which will then be covered by all 3 players, even if it wouldn't have made economic sense for any of them otherwise.

That's a good example on how a macro approach can help prioritize and focus the efforts. Local authorities should also pool to help prevent the closure of such essential infrastructures as hospitals or schools, which often accelerate the down spiral and seal the fate of several localities.

Education is paramount, and recent innovations and changes of habits could help change the equation for endangered institutions. We know that remote learning can become part of the mix, but also that some level of physical presence is essential for pupils. In order to maintain schools with a good level of education, why not have for instance confirmed teachers teach in parallel in different classrooms, with a junior assistant in each? 

Some worry about the absence of cultural life, but in Korea, I've already seen artists move their studios to very rural settings, or an old, remote industrial site converted into an art residence. And more fundamentally, there is no such thing as a cultural desert where a community is alive. Involving existing communities guarantees a cultural continuum, a transmission of the knowledge of the land and its history, but this is the ideal opportunity to bring more diversity. In Europe, quite a few rural communities have been revived by Foreigners who came to love them, and felt the love in return. A dying Italian village was repopulated with refugees and there as well, essential services could reopen. 

To help tilt the balance in the right direction, authorities can subsidize essential services. It's good to make sure that within a certain radius there's at least one store that can also provide basic postal / logistical services (not just a mini local platform for the pervasive delivery services). Once you enter a virtuous cycle of organic revival, other infrastructures can be envisioned - e.v. charging station, mini shuttle operations...

You don't want to build something as artificial as these cult-like life-on-Mars simulator bubbles, but grow reasonably ambitious, sustainable, local, impact projects. Transform zombie villages into seed villages where you want to enjoy life and why not, have kids. 

I realize that the concept of 'seed village' is already used for something very different, less inclusive. I was also into startup references. When I observe Korea's and not just Seoul's startup ecosystem, I see a lot of zombie startups that don't make sense, have no business model or future, and only exist and survive because they know how to milk the blind cows of public subsidies (and more than a few private funds, mind you).

I strongly believe that every region claiming to be the next startup magnet (in other words, this being Korea, all regions) should devote a portion of its startup budget to not-necessarily-tech, communities-as-startups approaches. If they manage to build clusters that's great, but in parallel it would be nice for Korea to build a grid of such CaaS (not Containers as a Service but Communities as a Startup). A human network, a community of communities sharing best practices instead of local authorities competing with each others.

It shouldn't be just a Bring-your-own-job party for young entrepreneurs, but an attractive alternative for people of all backgrounds and vocations. And the perfect occasion to fulfill overlooked yet strategic land-oriented missions: for instance, Korea needs to improve its forest maintenance, and to reduce its agricultural goods / food dependency through a more sustainable farming.

Now seems the time to seriously give it a try.


Seoul Village 2021
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* see interesting data about the local extinction risk index in "Korea Is Aging Rapidly" (The Dongguk Post 20210412)

Tuesday, January 12, 2021

Seoul Village Season XV

At long last we managed to escape from 2020.


We're certainly not out of the woods yet: the beast is still striking all over the world, our economies have yet to fully experience 'long covid', and vaccination will take much longer than it should (particularly in Korea, where hubris led to an embarrassing failure to secure doses before the second half of 2021).

Beyond this mother of all crises, here's what I liked and didn't like in 2020, what to expect from 2021.

 

A positive cultural leader, a pro yet fun soft power... the new Korean cool!

Korean culture claimed mainstream recognition in 2020. Of course "Gisaengchung - BONG Joon-ho's existenchial Parasite" scored a perfect grand slam, of course BTS dynamited the charts, but Korean series surfed the wave far beyond the usual Korean dramas, and Foreign media started paying more attention to different beats, from indie music to trot to pansori. I just loved to see Leenalchi succeed at home as well as overseas; that's the Korea I love, and these guys brought priceless freshness and fun when they were most needed.


Respect is what this world needs to better heal, and Korean citizens showed the world how caring for each other and respecting the common good was the way to overcome together. Even Korean American Rep. Andy Kim contributed to this positive image when he humbly cleaned up the US Capitol rotunda after the riots. That's the spirit.

Korea acted as a cultural leader also by innovating in the management and the treatment of the pandemic. The country realized unprecedented breakthroughs in research and development, not just, as usual, at the product level, but at the platform level as well, including in medical fields. 

This is not just about a K-pop fad anymore. Korea proved it could be at the same time super-pro, and super-cool... just like SON Heung-min!

 

The Dark Side of the Moon


2020 should have marked MOON Jae-in's triumph, with the ruling party's landslide victory at the elections, surfing on a brilliant success against the first wave of coronavirus... but his handling of three key issues durably tarnished his legacy.  Actually the very same issues I spotted two years ago (see "Moon Landing - The Cheong Wa Dae Curse"):

- Economy: dogmatism over pragmatism, that's certainly not the way to think in this millennium, particularly when small businesses struggle to survive. This pandemic only constituted a second wave after reforms that already claimed a lot of victims among the weakest ones. And what to say of the real estate mess? The ayatollah in charge of the reforms even wrote a book explaining that the aim of the game was precisely to hurt the little guys, because studies show that when the middle class benefits from the market, they tend to vote more conservative... Simply put, this government deliberately betrayed the very ones he pledged to defend.

- North Korea: now the government doesn't even try to pretend anymore. Protecting the KIM Jong-un regime matters more than defending human rights, defectors who criticize him have become the enemy, and KIM Yo-jong all but dictates the laws (see "KIM Yo-jong Crash Landing On You"). Human Rights Watch and other international bodies have denounced this moral failure, but that's not even the worst that has happened last year.

- Justice: if MOON Jae-in's approval rates are nosediving, that's because his administration has betrayed the spirit of 2016, the democratic values they were supposed to herald, and yes, even the memory of ROH Moo-hyun. Now international media are starting to look at MOON through less rose-colored glasses, and even some hardcore stans find that they went too far. Because when it comes to undermining justice and separation of powers, this administration has out-trumped Donald TRUMPCHO Kuk and CHOO Mi-ae have out-williambarred William BARR, and the ruling party has out-GOPed the Republicans. The only person who stands on their path is the incorruptible Eliot NESS MOON Jae-in himself named to lead the prosecution reform. YOON Suk-yeol (YOON Seok-youl) refused to turn a blind eye on the corruption within Cheong Wa Dae and the ruling party, and decided to defend democracy and the Constitution instead of his party. By harassing him and his teams in the most outrageous ways even by trumpian standards, these thugs managed to turn a selfless liberal into a hero even for conservatives. YOON is now leading in the polls for the 2022 presidential election, but like Robert MUELLER, he's more interested in defending the integrity of justice and the soul of the nation than in a political career. 


What does 2021 have in store?


The race for 2022 starts this year, with key mayoral elections in Seoul and Busan. The ruling party should easily keep the control of the capital city, but its leaders lost a lot of credit at the national level (see above) as well as at the local level (between the lack of transparency in the controversial Sejong-daero project and the scandals surrounding PARK Won-soon suicide - see "Mayor Park to ground control"). 

After the moral collapse of the right and left wings, Korea seems ripe for a centrist, uniting figure, but no one emerges there. Because the ruling party betrayed its own values, there's an opportunity at the center right, and OH Se-hoon hasn't given up his grand national ambitions. He proposed AHN Cheol-soo to join the People Power Party and run for Seoul mayor in 2021, which would clear the way for OH in 2022, and for AHN in 2027. To the left, the future could belong to people like GEUM Tae-seop, a moderate who left the ruling party because he felt it lost its moral compass. Yet at this stage, no one is as popular as YOON. 

We will see which welcome pack KIM Jong-un prepared for Joe BIDEN, how long Yoshihide SUGA survives on top (anyway, whoever succeeds him, without or "With Yoshihide Suga, Nippon Kaigi remains in charge of Japan politics"), what kind of pressure China intends to exert on South Korea... 

We will of course keep an eye on the evolution of Seoul's cityscape, the 3rd Seoul Biennale of Architecture and Urbanism, the impact of Sejong-daero revamping. 

And I might have a surprise or two in the fiction department. Thank you again, dear readers, for downloading my collection of short stories, 'Seoul VillageS', from all over the world. Your kind feedback brightened this dark year.

I wish us all a better year 2021, full of health and love. And if this year of the cow brings us another roaring tiger, let's not lose hope and let's not forget the power of laughter.



Seoul Village 2021
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Download 'Seoul VillageS', the free ebook.
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PS - ICYMI, the manual to 2020:

Parasite: