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Showing posts with label MOON Jae-in. Show all posts
Showing posts with label MOON Jae-in. Show all posts

Saturday, March 8, 2025

Yoon released, level playing field next?

Today, YOON Suk-yeol was released from jail following a ruling exposing his arrest as illegal and the process behind it as questionable. Prosecutor General SHIM Woo-jung refused to appeal this ruling that confirmed the serious doubts surrounding the way justice and democracy were handled following Yoon's stunning martial law declaration (see below 'Korea needs new leadership... on both sides', my article in The Korea Times last month).

If countless legal and constitutional experts have already denounced the abuses committed over the past few months, this is the first official time justice officially rules foul play. And in a striking parallel between two Prosecutor Generals, SHIM Woo-jung took a stand against LEE Jae-myung's abuses of justice similar to YOON's against MOON Jae-in five years ago.

Public opinion has also shifted, younger generations being particularly angered about the unfairness of a system corrupted to an appalling point. Over the past week, we've learned that MOON's controversial reforms didn't stop at creating a constitutional and judicial monster in the CIO (see article below), but also perverted the election commission into another political tool totally exempt from accountability, its top job being even handed down from father to son. Now calls are mounting to investigate the investigation, starting with the CIO. 

LEE Jae-myung himself may face new challenges within his party. In spite of his own legal problems, he's been parading like an acting president, promising everything and its contrary, claiming his DPK is not progressive, courting both TRUMP and XI. The controversial figure has managed to remove all competitors within the DPK, but it's getting every day more obvious that he is the problem. Like TRUMP corrupted Lincoln's GOP from the inside, LEE Jae-myung keeps defacing the party of KIM Dae-jung and ROH Moo-hyun

I've made the parallel between TRUMP and LEE for years, but it's never been more relevant  than today: fundamentally, both are accused of the same attacks on democracy, particularly regarding the separation and balance of powers. The difference is that with DJT the executive is taking over justice and the legislative power, while with LJM the legislative power is taking over the executive and justice. In both cases, a controversial leader struggling with justice puts himself first and last, and doesn't care about the party or the country.

As for YOON Suk-yeol, if he can feel somehow vindicated for his diagnostic (democracy was under threat at many levels), he may still pay for his radical method of raising the alert (declaring martial law).

This watershed moment comes days before the decision of a Constitutional Court itself under scrutiny for obvious bias and for actions that contradicted both law and its own rules. In such a context, ruling YOON guilty of insurrection would cause a major democratic crisis because it would in itself be equivalent to an insurrection or coup d'etat by LEE and friends. On the other hand, no one expect this LEE-friendly body to fully exonerate the impeached president. 

The only decent way out would be to decide not to decide, and to rule that given the doubts surrounding this whole mess, investigation should start from scratch. 

Better get this right this time. 

And make sure that both sides are fully and fairly investigated

History keeps watching. 


Seoul Village 2025
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Korea deserves better leadership . . . on both sides

By Stephane Mot
2025-02-03

The chaotic mess that followed Yoon Suk Yeol’s martial law folly is an embarrassment for Korean politicians who, unlike in 2016, failed to rise to the democratic challenge.

Democracy relies on a very delicate balance of power where the independence of justice remains one of the trickiest goals to achieve, and Korea is by no means an exception. Here, justice plays an even more important role since the balance tilts toward the legislative power in a unicameral system with a single-term limit for presidents.

Following an event as exceptional as a martial law declaration, democracy and justice must work flawlessly: History is watching.

In 2016, Korea experienced a rare moment of grace when, except for a minority of hardcore supporters, the whole nation united to demand and obtain the impeachment of then-President Park Geun-hye. Democracy triumphed and its very fundamentals were at the core of everyday discussions: what is justice, what is the separation of powers, what are checks and balances … This unity was also made possible because, from the beginning, the Ewha Womans University students who started the mobilization around the Park scandal demanded that the movement remained apolitical.

The democratic surge against Yoon’s martial law did start on a bipartisan basis (the move was immediately denounced by leaders from both sides, and swiftly canceled in a unanimous vote), but partisan politics quickly took over.

Yoon’s disastrous move logically resulted in his impeachment, but instead of following the natural process led by the Constitutional Court, the opposition launched parallel investigations to speed up the calendar. Because Yoon was not the only target of justice, and from Dec. 3 the key question has never been whether he will be removed from power (he should and he will), nor even when (in any case by mid-May, or six months after his impeachment), but whether Lee Jae-myung will pull a Trump and elude justice until the presidential elections, which must be held within 60 days following the president’s removal.

Substituting the calendar of justice with the calendar of politics is dangerous for democracy, and when you try to score political goals at all costs, you end up scoring own goals in front of history. As the Republican Party just demonstrated in the U.S., you can at the same time win an election and lose your soul. And just like Lincoln would hardly recognize Trump’s GOP, Kim Dae-jung and Roh Moo-hyun would not necessarily condone this Democratic Party of Korea’s (DPK) handling of justice.

Make no mistake, as president, Yoon himself displayed a very selective vision of justice. And of course, his People Power Party is far closer to Trump’s, particularly with its own "basket of deplorables" (from anti-feminists to ultra-conservative bigots, K-MAGA conspiracy theorists and hardcore history revisionists … ). But it takes two to tango, and there are good and bad guys on both sides of the aisle.

The DPK’s first miscalculation was the express and frankly unnecessary impeachment of then-acting President Han Duck-soo. This manufactured crisis confirmed that party leaders were in a rush and didn’t care about the economic or international consequences of their actions.

But weaponizing the Corruption Investigation Office for High-ranking Officials (CIO) was clearly a moral hazard. Yes, it undoubtedly helped the party achieve its goal of speeding up the judiciary calendar and serving Lee, but at what cost?

With its spectacular strikes, borderline legal tactics and at times comical blunders (not to mention unanswered questions regarding its scope and legitimacy), the CIO drew criticism from both sides and replaced the due process of justice with a tragic circus that not only contaminated a Constitutional Court forced to take sides or to turn a blind eye, but also cast serious doubts about the impartiality of the whole system.

Worse: The CIO’s shortcomings also revived the key controversies that surrounded its creation five years earlier. At the core of justice reforms that disrupted the balance of power and brought confusion between justice and police, undermining the core missions of the latter, the new institution appeared like a special purpose vehicle, a partisan tool tailor-made to "search and kill" any investigation against former President Moon Jae-in’s administration and friends.

So using and abusing this very CIO against Yoon, a liberal darling who before falling down his own rabbit hole became the right wing’s champion precisely because he resisted these controversial reforms as well as abuses reminiscent of the despicable prosecutor Woo Byung-woo ... that's not the smartest message to send if you want to restore trust in the system.

Furthermore, this messy, undignified rush is deliberately depriving Korea of a most vital democratic debate on the core issues raised by Yoon’s folly, in particular the accusations of abuse of power made not only against him, but also against the legislative majority. This general lack of transparency, this confusion, fed feelings of frustration and unfairness, logically contributing to the rise of the disgraced president and his party in opinion polls when Yoon should have remained at rock bottom, like Park before him. As much as wild right-wing conspiracy theories, this certainly fueled Korea’s own Jan. 6 moment (the inexcusable yet fully predictable and preventable Jan. 19 assault on the court that issued Yoon’s arrest warrant).

Between Yoon’s suicidal martial law declaration and the opposition’s counterproductive barrage, Korean politicians from both sides only managed to demonstrate their lack of judgment and their unfitness to lead the nation toward actual justice, fairness and unity.

The failed reforms of 2020 must be fixed, checks and balances restored, and new, moderate leadership must emerge on both sides. If now is certainly not the best time to allow a second term for presidents, implementing a two-round system for the next presidential elections would be the best way to let all voices be heard in the first round, to help more transparent alliances form before the second and to erect an additional hurdle against populism.

Stephane Mot is author of “Seoul Villages - Guisin-dong and other Seoul Villages."




Tuesday, January 4, 2022

Seoul Village Season XVI

Happy New Year of the Tiger! Let's see how this young cub grows and roars.

And let's hope the pandemic will spare us another scary sequel...

As we've known from the start (see "Kudos to Korea's 4 Ts, but please no complacency"), we can never let our guard down while riding such roller coasters. This year, as expected, after failing to secure vaccines as early as other wealthy nations, Korea caught up very quickly once they arrived. But a populist decision to ease restrictions at the worst moment (during a surge and before year end festivities - not to mention an unexpected new variant) led to record cases, hospitalizations, and deaths. Fortunately, the population started to react and the government to backpedal, so the last couple of weeks have seen a steady decline in the number of cases. Keep safe and carry on.
 


This year, barring more surprises (and we've had our share of those lately), the presidential election could be the most defining moment for a country where the balance of powers has been dramatically altered over the past few years.

LEE Jae-myung is now leading in the polls, with the help of YOON Suk-yeol (definitely not a seasoned politician), and of course MOON Jae-in. Interesting contrast: while LEE remains totally protected from any investigation around the Daejang-dong scandal, the controversial CIO has been spying the phones of campaigning opposition members in a local version of the Watergate...

In a brilliant lame duck move, MOON pardoned PARK Geun-hye, the equivalent to throwing an elephant into the opposition's already unstable porcelain store before the elections: now YOON, who investigated the scandals surrounding the former president and CHOI Soon-sil, will have an even tougher time getting votes from hardcore PARK supporters... 

That LEE Jae-myung could envision the White House in spite of his sulfurous reputation and the ruling party's unpopularity speaks volumes about the opposition's ineptitude. Character-wise, LEE is clearly closer to Donald TRUMP than to KIM Dae-jung - but at least, unlike the former POTUS, he's working very hard to change his image during the campaign.

Beyond securing the elections, MOON is focusing his final months on an intense lobbying to formally end the Korean War, which requires an agreement from other stakeholders. But unless Trump returns to power, the US will demand significant concessions from KIM Jong-un, and that is precisely what MOON wants to avoid.

MOON Jae-in's goal is to remove pressure on the North Korean regime and US troops from the Peninsula. South Korea's recent displays of weaponry and hikes in military budgets are supposed to prove that the nation can defend itself (should of course its leaders actually decide to defend it). Needless to say, both China and Russia would also love to see Yankees go home. 

Soft-power-wise, at least, Seoul can count on its Weapons of Mass Distraction, even if topping 2021 will be very hard for 'k-content' providers.

We'll need some cheering up to cope with real life drama (and at the macro level household debt, inflation, rising rates, overdue bubble bursts across the globe...).

Maybe we don't want that tiger to roar, after all. A cute yawn could be a welcome break.


Please be safe, but remain wild and playful. Have a great, full, and happy 2022.


Seoul Village 2022
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Thursday, April 8, 2021

After OH Se-hoon's Hangang Renaissance, Who In 2022?

If both Seoul and Busan delivered landslide victories to PPP candidates, yesterday's by-elections were less a conservative triumph than a crushing defeat for the ruling party, and a double-edged sword win for moderates between two much more consequential votes.

Here's the score:

  • Busan: PARK Hyun-joon (PPP) 63% - KIM Young-choon (DP) 34%
  • Seoul: OH Se-hoon (PPP) 57.5% - PARK Young-sun (DP) 39%
  • Both winners claimed 100% of the districts*.
     

OH Se-hoon campaigning in Sinchon on April 6 (photo S.M.)

PARK and OH offered rather humble acceptance speeches out of respect for the context and the expectations of voters, but also in sharp contrast with the ruling party who, last year, interpreted their landslide win at the 2020 legislative elections as, instead of a referendum on the handling of the pandemic, an absolute mandate for the very reforms that, under normal circumstances, should have led to their defeat:

  • They not only kept undermining the separation of powers in the name of justice reform, but prolonged the CHO Kuk scandals with the CHOO Mi-ae and YOO Mee-yang scandals... They even managed to create, all by themselves, their strongest presidential challenger to date: YOON Suk-yeol.
  • They not only pushed even further suicidal real estate reforms that kept crushing the middle class and leading have-nots to have even less, but also got entangled in the LH scandals.

No wonder even the inept, irrelevant PPP could defeat this embarrassing crew. Yet conservatives shouldn't make the same mistake as the DP, and believe or claim that conservatism won. It's a democratic, centrist alliance that made all the difference. And what Korea wants, what Korea needs now is neither an ideological, stubborn conservative rule, nor a ideological, stubborn left, but a pragmatic, moderate, centrist, uniting leadership**. 

Actually, conservatives lost the PPP primaries when center-right OH Se-hoon defeated NA Kyung-won. And the pact OH cemented with AHN Cheol-soo (who won the centrist primaries against  KEUM Tae-sup) worked perfectly: they wrapped up their poll-based primaries right on time, and campaigned together in a rare display of political fair play.

Centrist leader AHN Cheol-soo and weather vane kingmaker KIM Chong-in on stage in Sinchon, campaigning for OH Se-hoon on the eve of the 4.7 elections (photos S.M.)

When announced the winner yesterday on TV, OH Se-hoon was obviously very moved, and remained seated for a few seconds. Probably thinking about the miscalculation that cost him his job ten years ago, when he put it in the balance for an unnecessary referendum on school lunches (ironically, the left won by campaigning against a measure of social justice usually pushed by socialist parties - only the rich pay for it)***. Maybe remembering his exile in Kingali and Lima, his failed political return five years ago (see "OH Se-hoon returns... but did he ever leave?").  Certainly reflecting about how, just weeks ago, he was still an underdog...

Now OH looks ideally positioned for the 2027 presidential elections, except for the fact that he is once more facing a hostile majority at the Seoul metropolitan council. He only won the job for 15 months (the remainder of PARK Won-soon's mandate), and will have to campaign again next year with little chance to bring significant change in between: even before the elections, LEE Nak-yon let everybody know that his party would obstruct his every move... LEE's dumb statement immediately backfired but anyway, after yesterday's debacle, the ruling party's former front-runner doesn't stand any chance for 2022's main prize: Cheong Wa Dae.

Who will win next year's presidential elections? 

If the PPP learns the lessons from Seoul, they will try to further evolve, and build a big tent reaching for the center and YOON Suk-yeol, whom AHN Cheol-soo has already been rooting for. A PPP momentum means less room for a fully independent candidate. I'm not sure the former top prosecutor will want to run, but this liberal certainly won't do it under a very conservative banner.

The ruling party will probably try to perform some cosmetic changes and bring new faces, but they have to abandon the anti-democracy path they've chosen recently, and preferably with a better candidate than a Trump-style populist like LEE Jae-myung. He could win, but then Korea would lose.

Whatever The Future brings, this being Korea, we shall be hearing some more about real estate during the campaign...

'WTF. Seoul election results by... subway lines and stations!!! Actually quite entertaining. Oh Se-hoon. Park Young-sun' (@theSeoulVillage - 20210407 - twitter.com/theseoulvillage/status/1379795550023774213)


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* Beyond Seoul's 25 'gu', OH even won every single 'dong' / neighborhood, except 3:

  • Seongsan 1-dong (Mapo-gu) by 168 votes
  • Hwagok 8-dong (Gangseo-gu) by 309 votes
  • Guro 3-dong (Guro-gu) by 863 votes. 

** I should add 'inclusive', because that's also what Korea needs. But not yet what Korea wants. OH Tae-yang, the first openly LGBT candidate for Seoul mayor, finished 9th out of 12 with 6,483 votes (0.13%). That's a first step, but Korean politics remain overwhelmingly homophobic.

*** In case you forgot, the referendum that caused OH Se-hoon his job, and the scandal that hit his rival KWAK No-hyun right afterwards, opening a path for a very lucky PARK Won-soon: "Seoul free school lunch referendum (continued)" (20110612), "In memoriam OH Se-hoon" (20110824), "Kwak's "gros couac" (20110830)

Tuesday, January 12, 2021

Seoul Village Season XV

At long last we managed to escape from 2020.


We're certainly not out of the woods yet: the beast is still striking all over the world, our economies have yet to fully experience 'long covid', and vaccination will take much longer than it should (particularly in Korea, where hubris led to an embarrassing failure to secure doses before the second half of 2021).

Beyond this mother of all crises, here's what I liked and didn't like in 2020, what to expect from 2021.

 

A positive cultural leader, a pro yet fun soft power... the new Korean cool!

Korean culture claimed mainstream recognition in 2020. Of course "Gisaengchung - BONG Joon-ho's existenchial Parasite" scored a perfect grand slam, of course BTS dynamited the charts, but Korean series surfed the wave far beyond the usual Korean dramas, and Foreign media started paying more attention to different beats, from indie music to trot to pansori. I just loved to see Leenalchi succeed at home as well as overseas; that's the Korea I love, and these guys brought priceless freshness and fun when they were most needed.


Respect is what this world needs to better heal, and Korean citizens showed the world how caring for each other and respecting the common good was the way to overcome together. Even Korean American Rep. Andy Kim contributed to this positive image when he humbly cleaned up the US Capitol rotunda after the riots. That's the spirit.

Korea acted as a cultural leader also by innovating in the management and the treatment of the pandemic. The country realized unprecedented breakthroughs in research and development, not just, as usual, at the product level, but at the platform level as well, including in medical fields. 

This is not just about a K-pop fad anymore. Korea proved it could be at the same time super-pro, and super-cool... just like SON Heung-min!

 

The Dark Side of the Moon


2020 should have marked MOON Jae-in's triumph, with the ruling party's landslide victory at the elections, surfing on a brilliant success against the first wave of coronavirus... but his handling of three key issues durably tarnished his legacy.  Actually the very same issues I spotted two years ago (see "Moon Landing - The Cheong Wa Dae Curse"):

- Economy: dogmatism over pragmatism, that's certainly not the way to think in this millennium, particularly when small businesses struggle to survive. This pandemic only constituted a second wave after reforms that already claimed a lot of victims among the weakest ones. And what to say of the real estate mess? The ayatollah in charge of the reforms even wrote a book explaining that the aim of the game was precisely to hurt the little guys, because studies show that when the middle class benefits from the market, they tend to vote more conservative... Simply put, this government deliberately betrayed the very ones he pledged to defend.

- North Korea: now the government doesn't even try to pretend anymore. Protecting the KIM Jong-un regime matters more than defending human rights, defectors who criticize him have become the enemy, and KIM Yo-jong all but dictates the laws (see "KIM Yo-jong Crash Landing On You"). Human Rights Watch and other international bodies have denounced this moral failure, but that's not even the worst that has happened last year.

- Justice: if MOON Jae-in's approval rates are nosediving, that's because his administration has betrayed the spirit of 2016, the democratic values they were supposed to herald, and yes, even the memory of ROH Moo-hyun. Now international media are starting to look at MOON through less rose-colored glasses, and even some hardcore stans find that they went too far. Because when it comes to undermining justice and separation of powers, this administration has out-trumped Donald TRUMPCHO Kuk and CHOO Mi-ae have out-williambarred William BARR, and the ruling party has out-GOPed the Republicans. The only person who stands on their path is the incorruptible Eliot NESS MOON Jae-in himself named to lead the prosecution reform. YOON Suk-yeol (YOON Seok-youl) refused to turn a blind eye on the corruption within Cheong Wa Dae and the ruling party, and decided to defend democracy and the Constitution instead of his party. By harassing him and his teams in the most outrageous ways even by trumpian standards, these thugs managed to turn a selfless liberal into a hero even for conservatives. YOON is now leading in the polls for the 2022 presidential election, but like Robert MUELLER, he's more interested in defending the integrity of justice and the soul of the nation than in a political career. 


What does 2021 have in store?


The race for 2022 starts this year, with key mayoral elections in Seoul and Busan. The ruling party should easily keep the control of the capital city, but its leaders lost a lot of credit at the national level (see above) as well as at the local level (between the lack of transparency in the controversial Sejong-daero project and the scandals surrounding PARK Won-soon suicide - see "Mayor Park to ground control"). 

After the moral collapse of the right and left wings, Korea seems ripe for a centrist, uniting figure, but no one emerges there. Because the ruling party betrayed its own values, there's an opportunity at the center right, and OH Se-hoon hasn't given up his grand national ambitions. He proposed AHN Cheol-soo to join the People Power Party and run for Seoul mayor in 2021, which would clear the way for OH in 2022, and for AHN in 2027. To the left, the future could belong to people like GEUM Tae-seop, a moderate who left the ruling party because he felt it lost its moral compass. Yet at this stage, no one is as popular as YOON. 

We will see which welcome pack KIM Jong-un prepared for Joe BIDEN, how long Yoshihide SUGA survives on top (anyway, whoever succeeds him, without or "With Yoshihide Suga, Nippon Kaigi remains in charge of Japan politics"), what kind of pressure China intends to exert on South Korea... 

We will of course keep an eye on the evolution of Seoul's cityscape, the 3rd Seoul Biennale of Architecture and Urbanism, the impact of Sejong-daero revamping. 

And I might have a surprise or two in the fiction department. Thank you again, dear readers, for downloading my collection of short stories, 'Seoul VillageS', from all over the world. Your kind feedback brightened this dark year.

I wish us all a better year 2021, full of health and love. And if this year of the cow brings us another roaring tiger, let's not lose hope and let's not forget the power of laughter.



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PS - ICYMI, the manual to 2020:

Parasite:


Wednesday, June 17, 2020

KIM Yo-jong Crash Landing On You

Within a couple of weeks and with considerable help from the South Korean government, KIM Yo-jong pretty much effortlessly achieved her goals: claiming head of state level, beefing up her military credentials, boosting campaigns against defectors on both sides of the DMZ, paving the way for a conversation with China...



Well that escalated quickly, but without really escalating that badly. Just follow @theSeoulVillage Twitter timeline:

1) KIM Yo-jong's first and decisive victory came within hours, and probably as a surprise to herself: shortly after she asked South Korea to outlaw counter-propaganda leaflets from defectors, Cheong Wa Dae obeyed, and a new law did just that. Regardless of what you think of these leaflets, in a democracy, the executive and the legislative powers simply don't give in that quickly to someone who is not even the head of a dictatorship. Worse, this came as a betrayal to defectors, who got vilified on both sides of the DMZ, ruining overnight decades of efforts to help them overcome discrimination. The move, condemned by Human Rights Watch, echoed last year's appalling surrender of two defectors to North Korean authorities, against all normal procedures.

"MOON Jae-in gives in again. Obeys KIM Yo-jong and bans leaflets..." (@theSeoulVillage - twitter.com/theseoulvillage/status/1268448381019418624)
"A few hours. All it took for the ruling party to come up with a law pleasing #KimYojong. Laws against #discrimination or stalkers? Not a priority. #NorthKorea first it seems" (@theSeoulVillage - twitter.com/theseoulvillage/status/1268692368888225792)
2) In the days that followed, North Korea said they would sever the communications with the South, and refused to answer any call. By anything but a coincidence, and as the DPRK staged demonstrations against defectors, Seoul decided out of the blue (house) to slash their reallocation budgets, effectively stabbing defectors in the back once more:

"Open season for #NorthKorea #defectors, continued: after obeying #KimYojong, #MoonJaein govt keeps destroying decades of work to help them overcome #discrimination in #SouthKorea" (@theSeoulVillage - twitter.com/theseoulvillage/status/1271465125011009538) - Jeongmin Kim @jeongminnkim · Jun 12 - South Korea will cut this year’s budget for North Korean defector resettlement in the South, Seoul’s unification ministry confirmed 
3) Why stop when you're on a roll and everybody's playing your game? The very same day, KIM Yo-jong rewards this new zealous good deed from MOON Jae-in by upping the ante, and to announce that she will 'exercise (her) power authorized by the Supreme Leader':

"#SaturdayNightFever (Will #KimYojong's latest demand/threat pay off as well as the last one?) (@theSeoulVillage - twitter.com/theseoulvillage/status/1271796329316925442)
Laura Bicker @BBCLBicker · Jun 13 North Korea’s Kim Yo Jong tonight. “We will soon take a next action. By exercising my power authorized by the Supreme Leader, our Party and the state, I gave an instruction to the arms of the department in charge of the affairs with enemy to decisively carry out the next action”
"From Photobomb Queen to Bomb Queen, #KimYojong definitely cementing her badass 😎  profile. Note how Kim The Fourth put Military First (and next) in her pocket. Already calling the shots while Bro #KimJongun downs them?"  (@theSeoulVillage - twitter.com/theseoulvillage/status/1271988923904876545)

4) From then on, we knew that she had to walk the talk, and to do very soon something miliary-ish. Something destructive. Something more spectacular than blowing up Punggye-ri's shack outhouse, but something less lethal and war-like than the Yeongpyeong Shelling or the Cheonan Sinking. Something that would reach over the MDL to hit South Korea:


"There's no defusing, #NorthKorea must strike, and that will cement #KimYojong's credentials as Kim The Fourth. The question is less when (soon) than how." (@theSeoulVillage - twitter.com/theseoulvillage/status/1272684122629042176)
"#DPRK must somehow destroy something, but it should be, on Paekdu Richter's scale, more significant than blowing up #Punggyeri shack outhouse, but less lethal than #Yeonpyeong Shelling or #Cheonan Sinking. Across the #DMZ anyway... #baekduology"
(@theSeoulVillage - twitter.com/theseoulvillage/status/1272684124411580416)
"
That, of course, with #NorthKorea's ongoing #hacking campaigns..." ((@theSeoulVillage - twitter.com/theseoulvillage/status/1272684764097462272)

4)  As many predicted, KIM Yo-jong ended up blowing up Kaesong's inter-korean liaison office. No DML crossing, but you could at least see something from the other side. The greyish images from the South failed to make this underwhelming event more impressive. Basically, the North shoots itself in the foot to destroy the shoes offered by the South.... Kim The Fourth? More Baby Shark than Jaws.


"A minima disruption: #NorthKorea eventually blew up the Inter-#Korea liaison office minutes before stock exchange closing. Disappointingly predictable." (@theSeoulVillage - twitter.com/theseoulvillage/status/1272788161467265024)
"Didn't even cross the #MDL" (@theSeoulVillage - twitter.com/theseoulvillage/status/1272844777910726662)
"So for her maiden strike, #KimYojong scored rather low (scare-wise, less Jaws, more #BabyShark-doo-doo-doo). Embarrassing, but #SouthKorea's 'retaliation' is simply laughable: cut the electricity of the just blown up liaison office!" (@theSeoulVillage - twitter.com/theseoulvillage/status/1272852891741483014)
5) The next day, North Korea released their own colorful images, more firework-like, with splinters and debris flying everywhere, damaging nearby buildings. Of course the aim was not to neatly demolish a nondescript low rise building, but to simulate a military attack on a Southern landmark. Barely more impressive than blowing up mock-ups of the Blue House, but from a propaganda point of view, mission accomplished for (future?) Marshalll KIM Yo-jong.

"When #NorthKorea blows up something, sparks have to fly. For the #Kaesong inter-#Korea liaison office, debris flew in every direction, probably causing unnecessary damage. But what counts is the photo op, to help Photobomb Queen #KimYojong become Bomb Queen Kim The Fourth:" (@theSeoulVillage - 20200617)

So basically KIM Yo-jong succeeded beyond her expectations thanks to very complacent partners down South. Unification Minister KIM Yeon-chul resigned, and the two names advanced to succeed him used to be activists in favor of reunification under North Korean rule... doesn't look as if the KIM Dynasty should fear much on that front.

Of course, this is not about North vs South. The KIMs don't expect much from there, and want progress elsewhere. The US? They will put more pressure on Donald TRUMP, but closer to November in order to get the best deal / quid-pro-quo against an October Surprise. Depending on the fallout of John BOLTON bombs, opportunities may rise in the short term. What they seem to be needing urgently is support at home and from China.

As THAE Yong-ho noted, North Korea often bullies South Korea in order to get the US involved, and ultimately China called to the rescue. And nowadays, the situation doesn't seem that rosy inside the hermit kingdom, where coronavirus could well be raging. NK News mentioned embassies abroad trying to collect PPEs and other medical resources. Defectors say support seems to be eroding in Pyeongyang, and the lower middle class took a big hit when scores of pigs where culled (unlike cows, they are private properties).

The focus on defectors struck me as telling of a truly dire situation. Yes the regime needs scapegoats to divert from its failures, but acknowledging the importance of people who fled it clearly feeds THAE Yong-ho's growing aura in the North. That's a risk, but punishing those who spread news of him anywhere (North or South) has obviously become a matter of survival.
"#NorthKorea #propaganda focusing on #defectors, giving them extra visibility. Regime taking all sorts of risks on non-state scapegoats during #pandemic: popularity of #Thaeyongho & co is a systemic risk for them. The message: no mercy for 'traitors' who watch defector materials"  (@theSeoulVillage - twitter.com/theseoulvillage/status/1270526531111014400)

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Sunday, March 29, 2020

Kudos to Korea's 4 Ts, but please no complacency

From pariah in February to role model in March, South Korea illustrates what kind of swings to expect from the roller coaster our species boarded last December. Watch out for Loch-Ness-monster-shaped graphics - there won't be just one curve to flatten, but series of waves that can either be reduced to wavelets by sound leadership and smart citizens, or grown into tsunamis by covidiots of all sizes and shapes. In between, normal people will deliver results that anyway won't belong to normal times.
 
As the 'Spanish Flu' illustrates, fighting pandemics requires whack-a-mole resilience
 
 
As a French Seoulite (right now experiencing the transition between confinement in Paris and quarantine in Seoul*), I can't help but draw parallels between Korea and France, who both saw their first major clusters originate from mass gatherings held by cults in February: Shincheonji in Daegu, Porte Ouverte Chretienne in Mulhouse.
 
As an observer of national politics and international affairs, I can't help but draw parallels between Korea and the US, who both registered their first COVID-19 case on January 20, or between Korea and Japan, who both received international praise for the way they managed to 'flatten the curve'.
 
Of course, as we speak, Korea seems to emerge as the clear winner in all parallels:
  •  Korea better trained and equipped, swifter than France:
    - After posting record numbers of new cases, Korea swiftly implemented containment measures around Daegu and the region, but also at the micro level, around each actual or suspected case, aggressively multiplying tests, treatments, and tracking with as much precision as possible. The population didn't need much pedagogy to put on face masks everybody's already used to wearing in case of flu or bad air quality. For starters, Korea also keeps remarkable track of most of its senior citizens and of their health, and boasts a greater and more modern ICU capacity.
    - France's health system, which was already imploding long before SARS-CoV2 showed up, is now literally choking. Not enough testing material, not enough face masks for a population anyway totally oblivious of their existence, not enough protection gear required for doctors and nurses coping with a pandemic... France even lacks the legal framework to track and monitor as acutely as in Korea, where all members of the cult could be tested: since the Occupation, databases featuring religion are illegal in France, and Korea's amazing(ly intrusive) apps tracking COVID-19 patients wouldn't pass the CNIL cut either. 
    - For a change, France is lagging behind Korea in terms of return on experience. It took us years to find out that the 2003 heatwave killed 20,000 people instead of the 3,500 initially thought, and only a few days ago was it made public that our COVID-19 statistics didn't include cases or fatalities outside of hospital systems. To start with, we can't even keep track of our senior citizens that stay all year round in their retirement homes. During the H5N1 crisis, the French government did create a stockpile of one billion masks, but the country was relatively spared by the virus, and a few years later this safety net was deemed unnecessary and abandoned. Korea took a hit during that crisis, and learned the lesson. The government didn't hesitate too long before containing Daegu while France waited until after the elections to take significant measures.
    
  • Science and facts first, 4Ts for Korea vs only 1T for the States:
    - To the most obvious 3 Ts (Testing, Tracking, Treating), Korea didn't forget to add the fourth one, Transparency. This time, the vaccine came from the Sewol tragedy: MOON Jae-in knows what happens to leaders who fail when their citizens' safety is at stake.
    - Unfortunately, this President Of The United States focused from the start on the only T he cares for: TRUMP. Because he thinks as usual that everything is all about him and his election, and that he can never fail, as usual he rejects science and facts, and everybody pays the price. How many lies, denials, delays? How many weeks wasted, how many lives lost forever? At best tens of thousands, because the US have at long last started to move, and once they do they can move mountains, but Trump's behaviors could well have cost hundreds of thousands of American lives.
     
    "If #Korea has the best protection mask against #AirPollution and #covid19,
    #USA had the best #protectionmask against #Science, facts, and #truth thanks to this #MAGA #Trump #mask:
    http://e-blogules.blogspot.com/2020/03/coronavirus-protect-yourself-100-from.html  @blogules" (@theseoulvillage - 20200309)
     
    "So #DonaldTrump wants to see full #churches on #Easter day. Well that's very easy to do. Even #Italy manages just that right now (see photo below). #COVID19US" (@stephanemot - 20200326)
  • Korea more decisive and transparent than Japan's government**: 
    - when most international media applauded Japan for its remarkably low number of COVID-19 cases and fatalities, only a few observers pointed out the fact that these numbers were not to be trusted, that very few people were tested, and that the government was responsible for many fatalities with its disastrous handling of the outbreak on board of the Princess Diamond cruise ship. Sadly, much more lives will be lost on the archipelago because Shinzo Abe and his team deliberately tried to hide the pandemic under the rug to save face, Tokyo 2020, and their own corrupt regime. The reason why figures were so good and the temperature didn't show? They deliberately got rid of the tests and the thermometer, treating cases as 'pneumonia', and refusing even to release statistics about pneumonia. For many, reality hit home only yesterday, when Dishonest Abe exposed his total lack of visibility and control:
    "After #Trump's #ITakeNoResponsibility, #ShinzoAbe's 'I-dont-have-a-clue-how-deep-I-dug-#Japan-In-but-in-a-fortnight-after-cases-have-multiplied-a-hundredfold-I-might-consider-declaring-a-state-of-emergency (scary quotes via @motokorich):" (@theseoulvillage - 20200328)
Of course, this is certainly not about countries competing against each other, but about mankind vs the invisible enemy, about humans vs their own failures.

Furthermore, Koreans already know how quickly and dramatically situations can evolve for the better and for the worse with this pandemic. And like everybody else, they are not out of the woods yet. Particularly with these recurring stories of churches holding services in spite of the ban, or this handshake-happy covidiot of a politician on the campaign trail:


"If #Korea govt locked up 'religious' leaders who persist in organizing mass 'services', prisons would be packed. Particularly their mass murderer sections." (Quote Tweet Raphael Rashid / @koryodynasty "This at the Yonsei Central Baptist Church today. I wonder how far spit particles can travel.") (20200329)
 
Frederic Ojardias / @fredojardias: "I just saw a campaigning politician (from the majority party) walking in a park in Seoul and shaking the hands of *every people* he met. Seriously, Korea. The #COVID crisis is not over. @moonriver365  @wonsoonpark Seoul Village / @theseoulvillage: "I'd #facepalm if touching one's own face weren't forbidden" (20200329)
So don't count on me to feed the ambient complacency. Or to complain about systematic screenings and tests upon arrival in the country.

One can only be impressed by the attention given to each and every one of us ever since we landed, from the welcome pack (masks, hand sanitizer, disinfectant, disposable thermometers, special trash bags...) to the daily calls from the district office, the neighborhood health center, and even the psychological support provided to anyone in need. Yes, during this quarantine, we're tracked by GPS, we have to report on two different self-quarantine apps every day (ministries of Health and Interior), we have to take our temperature twice a day for good measure, even if we tested negative to the coronavirus after arrival. But in too many countries, too many people would die for - and sadly too many people will die without - such attention.
"Free #protectionMasks, hand gel, disinfection spray, special trash bags for contaminated materials and instructions to handle them... dropped at your home. #Seoul welcomes you back in a country that copes seriously with #covid19." (20200326)
These days, Korea manages to maintain a significant level of economic activity, but that's a very delicate balancing act, and I'd settle for a trade-off where the economy is steadily running at around 85%, instead of 90% for the first week, but 70% afterwards. If we want most restaurants to remain open much longer, maybe limiting their activity (e.g. to take out) could make that more likely.

Avoiding complacency and relapses should be consistent at all levels. And if MOON Jae-in is enjoying a well deserved boost in the polls because of the way he handled the outbreak, that shouldn't be a green light for bringing back such rotten apples as CHO Kuk or SOHN Hye-won.

Seoul Village 2020Welcome to our Korean Errlines! Follow Seoul Village on Facebook and Twitter, follow me on Instagram.
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* see this 20200328 tweet:


** as usual I make clear differences between Japan, Imperial Japan, and the politicians that are now ruining this great nation, betraying this great people.

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