4th exclusive interview with KIM Jong-un - Chollyu time!

Even if eight years have passed since our last meeting*, the Beer Leader remembers me all right, almost choking me with a long, nicotine-laden bear hug. His daughter KIM Ju-ae opts for a quick high-five before returning to her smartphone - probably posting ahout the event on KCNA's latest app Instagrim.

KIM Jong-un: "Welcome back to my lair! See how my beloved daughter, the Morning Star of Korea, has grown into a perfect heir? You know she's already become a Missile General Director? Well from day one I've trained her so well.... she executed her first traitors before she could even walk."

Seoul Village: "How cute... a chip off the old block indeed. Your dynasty's 4G is enjoying a great coverage from your propaganda machine, but I can't see KIM Yo-jong today, and she's always photobombing our interviews from the background... Is she jealous because her niece got the leather jacket she always dreamed of?"

KJU: "Ju-ae wouldn't fit, fat chance.... No, Yo-jong's mission is over: we had to get our people used to a potential leading female figure from the divine bloodline, the time for 4G to grow out of her diapers."

Birds of a leather rule together - KIM 4G with her high fructose sugar daddy

SV: "Ever the gentleman... I also noted how you're trying to counter illegal Hallyu content by developing series shot in a more Hollywood fashion."

KJU: "Yup. We call that Chollyu. We produced very popular series, like 'Camp 14', which I'm sure inspired Squid Game. You know, our whole nation is a big survival game. BTS is also drawing huge crowds here."

SV: "BTS?!?"

KJU: "Yeah. 'Behind The Scenes' is a reality show devoted to torture techniques. Our domestic audiences are literally hooked to it."

SV: "You've also been exporting such niceties as cannon fodder to Russia or missile technologies to Iran."

KJU: "Among others, got that right. And business has been booming even more since the US have embraced the dark side of the force."

SV: "Wow wow, not so fast, the Midterms might put the brakes on your friend Donnie." 

KJU: "Yes, Donald is on the right track, except of course when he's unfairly competing with us. By the way did you see how his dynasty's raking in cryptocurrencies? And they're not even hiding behind hackers and aliases when they demand bribes or ransom or anything. But Trump is not the guy in charge of America. Pete will make sure November will come out just fine."

SV: "Pete? Not Vlad?"

KJU: "Putin showed the way, Thiel perfected it. With this guy, Trump won't even need redistricting. They've got all the data they want on every single citizen, they know what they're thinking because they shape it. Actually I asked him to upgrade our rusty software - can you believe we're still running on Kimchi Analytica 1.0?".  

SV: "So no need for another Trump-Kim summit then?"

KJU: "Not officially. Of course Donald will visit, but essentially on a benchmark tour of our regime: for his ICE facilities naturally, but also for his ballroom, his military parades, his monuments, his dynastic trickle-down economics, and of course his cult of personality..Trump is tired of the French model - doesn't feel personal enough. I was touched by his Trump pin initiative, a nice tribute to our tradition. I also loved his giant portrait on the Department of Justice HQ, a perfect symbol of the abolition of the separation of powers, but Don wants something more long-lasting than a banner."

'#TrumpPresidentialLibrary obviously designed to host a #NorthKorea plenum. #Trump #architecture' (20260331 - @theseoulvillage)

'#MAGA goes #KCNA:' (20250804 - @theseoulvillage)

 

'OMG #KarolineLeavitt is actually going full #RiChunhee!!!' (20260108 - @theseoulvillage)

 SV: "No summit with South Korea either?" 

KJU: "I don't need puppets down South anymore, now that I've got the perfect love triangle around me. When Trump pulls out the troops, Vlad and Jinping will maintain some Mexican standoff. Could get trickier when Putin kicks the bucket though. Russian mobster succession wars can get messy." 

SV: "You're distancing yourself from South Korea at the very moment a good friend rules supreme. LEE Jae-myung sent you money, legalized your propaganda, his unification minister leaked essential intel from the States... and you're still snubbing him?"

KJU: "The more I wait, the more he'll send my way. Besides, he's also busy with his own takeover of justice. Plus I have tests to run and he doesn't like that."

SV: "Nukes?"

KJU: "Our pyrotechnics shows will depend on which part of our catalogue our clients are interested it. It won't be as spectacular, but I'm also developing a lovely new weapon with Pete, Elon, and Vlad: swarms of nano drones. We all need them for our core surveillance and spying activities, but also for surgical removal of political opponents. Much more efficient and discreet than VX or Novichok."

SV: "Are Thiel and Musk also considering this kind of applications?"

KJU: "Which verses of Project 2025 and Dark Enlightenment did you skip?" 

Seoul Village 2026
Welcome to our Korean Errlines! Follow Seoul Village on Facebook, Bluesky, Threads, Substack, and X/Twitter, follow me on Instagram.
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* see previous episodes: "Exclusive interview with KIM Jong-un" , "EXCLUSIVE-Second interview with KIM Jong-un", "Exclusive interview with KIM Jong-un - Season III"- Agence Fausse Presse.

Seoul Village Season XIX

At long last, Korea's miserable month of December 2024 is over. You'd think it'd be hard to top two presidential impeachments sandwiched between two major disasters (YOON Suk-yeol's short-lived martial law and Jeju Air's tragic plane crash), but 2025 doesn't bode very well either for a nation on the ropes. 

Whoever is the next president will have a hard time rebuilding hope and trust at home as well as overseas, provided that's on their menu.

In the short term, acting president CHOI Sang-mok is unlikely to achieve anything significant and until the elections at least, the opposition is unlikely to contribute to reviving an anemic economy it's been undermining for years. As for the long term. this Dark December most probably annihilated that recent, timid demographic uptick (belated COVID rebound?) as radically as those politically motivated budget cuts sacrificing Korea's future growth engines (goodbye innovation and quantum computing).

Korea's competitive edge and survival are also at risk with the return of Trump to the White House.

In the 1991 blockbuster Terminator 2: Judgement Day, Arnold Schwarzenegger returned as a force of good in total contrast with a first opus where he pretty much destroyed everything. But that's fiction and in Trump's T2, The Donald is unlikely to fundamentally change characters. Actually, DJT already hired 'Dark MAGA' Elon Musk for the role of Robert Patrick: T-!000, a fitter, slicker, updated version of the bulletproof killing machine programmed to help Skynet / Space X control the World. Anyway, doomsday scenario or not, this sequel promises to be less boring than Kamala Harris' short-lived B2: Statu Quo.

Both sides of the DMZ are watching closely.

KIM Jong-un knows he can't trust Trump, and he's already busy with another transactional buddy, Vladimir Putin. With his 'Juche Line' and 'Sunshine Line' in tatters, KIM somehow balances the 'Beijing Line' with a 'Kremlin Line' that provides oil, currencies, and statesman credentials against disposables (weapons and cannon fodder). 

Whoever is in charge in Seoul, lines will change and the US military presence of South Korea will be reevaluated by a man who already proved he could betray and abandon brothers in arms (ask the Kurds and Afghans if they believe one second Trump's commitment to Koreans is ironclad). We know Trump wants to withdraw, and that Mike Pompeo advised him (as Mark Esper revealed) to delay such a risky move to his second term. We know that this time he'll be surrounded by incompetent yes-men in the White House and in a greater section of Congress. We also know that Marco Rubio wouldn't be okay with abandoning Asia to China, but that he won't be calling the shots...

Should LEE Jae-myeong become the next president, he could even accelerate the withdrawal process. And he certainly wouldn't compensate with a NATO style alliance with Japan and Taiwan, like the one floated here and there as a second Trump mandate looked inevitable.

But LEE himself is a very transactional guy, and he could sing Trump a different kind of serenade than the one YOON sang to Biden. 

Besides, Korea Inc have more than a few chips on the table. Samsung, SK Hynix and Co. also fear another kind of withdrawal: the subsidies guaranteed under Joe Bden's CHIPS act. CHEY Tae-won already warned SK might reconsider its massive investment in Indiana, where both senators are Republicans... like in Texas, where Samsung extends its Austin plant and builds a new one in Taylor...

At worst very conflictual, at best very transactional, this year of the blue snake looks pretty sneaky. 

Nonetheless, let's wish ourselves a happy new year 2025.

"#Trump returns. To #KyoboBookstore, #Seoul:" (20241129 post by Seoul Village on Bluesky)

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Asymetric War (Laissez-)Faire - Crouching Doves, Hidden Hawks

Hard to get some attention in 2022. North Korea's testing frenzy (over 40 missile launches so far) eventually paid off, but with another dictator with a bigger button, an itchy finger, and an actual, ultra violent war raging, KIM Jong-un and the KCNA had to beef up their storytelling.

Look what you've done

So as Putin shot missiles all over Ukraine in retaliation for the incident on his controversial bridge to Crimea, KIM had to mansplain that his recent shots were a simulation of tactical nuclear strikes, and a rehearsal for the wiping out of key infrastructures across South Korea. If no mock up Blue Houses were harmed during the shooting, that was clearly a few notches higher than the usual reactions to joint KOR-US drills, or VIP visits (VP Kamala Harris the other day).

Furthermore, the DPRK demonstrated yet new levels of readiness and stealth, making South Korea's failed test even more embarrassing. YOON Suk-yeol can say the neighbors upstairs have 'nothing to gain from nuclear weapons', calls for nuclear deterrence South of the DMZ keep getting louder.

There's always Uncle Sam's 'ironclad' support, and including on the ground, at a time when Joe Biden can't set foot in Ukraine, or even say what he wants about Taiwan. Besides, hawks are getting a little more subtle across the East Sea, and coordination becomes possible (though whatever LEE Jae-myung may say, the ROK is not heading for a 'pro-Japan defense'). Fumio Kishida and friends even received some help from Kyiv, where Zelenskyy declared that the Kuril Islands belonged to Japan, not Russia...

All eyes should be on a key player: after circumnavigating unusual unrest at home, and Putin's most urgent demands overseas, XI Jinping is about to become more officially ruler for life (at the XXth Congress of the Chinese Communist Party).

(Seoul Village on Facebook - 20221001) "China's 'Panda Diplomacy' in 2022 according to 阿塗 (IG @ah_to_hk). With North Korea supporting Russia's massacres in Ukraine, South Korea (NB Yoon?!?) composing with Xi Jinping Imperator, Japan restoring Imperial Japan, the mighty USA eagle a distant observer, one feather brushing Taiwan... Among countless details, China's Pandamic SNAFUs, its support of autocrat neighbors, South China Sea's floating borders, a few birds that managed to escaped post-democracy Hong Kong, or those powerless doves (EU / OZ / UK / CAN) in the corner..."

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No Collision?

Last year, KIM Jong-un was about to perform historic walks across the demarcation line with MOON Jae-in (see "Chirps vs Tweets"). This time, he was hours away from boarding a train to Vladivostok, and Putin. But where will he be heading for, right after the 2020 Asan Plenum: Japan? Switzerland? NYC? The ICC? And if KJU ends up six feet under, will it be because of a collision with the US? an obstruction of his windpipe? a Saturday Night Massacre caused by the big bang of Mount Paekdu's supervolcano? Who knows?

"#KimJongun: "Vladimir Vladimirovich, can you help me lift #sanctions against #NorthKorea?" Putin: ..." (20190424 - https://twitter.com/theseoulvillage/status/1120932441219145730)

We do know one thing: in these tricky and uncertain times, the Asan Plenum is always a very special moment to better feel the pulse of our very special peninsula, our very special region, and our very only planet. This year felt even more complete with much more female voices among the experts invited on stage*, and a most powerful, liberated North Korean voice: THAE Yong-ho's.

Here was someone who illustrated admirably this year's theme, 'Korea's Choice'. THAE risked his life, and chose Korea. Not North Korea, not South Korea, but as a true patriot, the Korea that he believes all Koreans should aim for.

⚡️ “Asan Plenum 2019 - Korea's Choice” in tweets:https://t.co/lUPXmlByTj #AsanPlenum @asaninst #Korea #ThaeYeongho

— Seoul Village (@theseoulvillage) April 25, 2019

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* see Asan Institute's Asan Plenum 2019 program. If you don't see Trump and China on the menu, they are of course all over the map.

Day 1 (April 23, 2019):
Welcoming Remarks: HAHM Chaibong
Keynote Address: James B. Steinberg
Plenary Session I (G1 or G2?): Choi Kang, Evelyn Goh, Douglas H. Paal, James B. Steinberg, Zhang Tuosheng, Zhao Xiaozhuo
Session 1:
- ROK-U.S. Alliance: Sue Mi Terry, Kim Sung-han, Marc Knapper, Sydney A. Seiler, Soeya Yoshihide, Zhu Feng.
- U.S.-Japan Alliance: Park Cheol hee, Kent E. Calder, Richard McGregor, Tokuchi Hideshi, Wang Dong.
- NATO: Choi Jinwoo, Ian Anthony, Pascal Boniface, Kestutis Paulauskas, Brooke A. Smith-Windsor, Alexander Vershbow.
Plenary Session II (Collective Memory or Collective Future?): Philip Stephens, Hahm Chaibong, David Harris, Aleksandra Gliszczynska-Grabias, Volker Stanzel.
Book Launch (Asan CHUNG Ju-yung's Autobiography 'Born of This Land: My Life Story'): Hahm Chaibong, Chung Mong-joon, Edwin J. Feulner, Karen E. House, Lee Hong Koo, Paul D. Wolfowitz.
Night Sessions:
- North Korea’s Choice: Nuclear Issue: Jung H. Pak, Chun Yungwoo, Bruce Klingner, Nishino Junya, Jonathan Pollack, Scott A. Snyder.
- North Korea’s Choice: Economic Reform: Go Myong-hyun, Thomas Byrne, Furukawa Katsuhisa, John Park (and Hazel A. Smith).

Day 2 (April 24, 2019):
Plenary Session III (Nationalism or Internationalism?): Lee Chung Min, Pascal Boniface, Edwin J. Feulner, G. John Ikenberry, Yuli Tamir, Paul D. Wolfowitz.
Session 2:
- Is Democracy in Crisis?: Gilbert Rozman, Ladan Bouroumand, Chu Yun-han, Martin Fackler, Karen E. House, Philip Stephens.
- Immigrants or Refugees?: Marie McAuliffe, Mely Caballero-Anthony, Gordon Flake, Lee Jasmine, Neil G. Ruiz, Jay Song.
- Values or Interests?: J. James Kim, Kent E. Calder, Fujisaki Ichiro, Gao Fei, Linda Jakobson, T. J. Pempel.
Session 3:
- Free Trade or Fair Trade?: Asif Hasan Qureshi, Ahn Dukgeun, Fukagawa Yukiko, Patrick Messerlin, Tami E. Overby.
- Arms Control: Kato Yoichi, Abe Nobuyasu, Alexander Gabuev, Park Jiyoung, Nicolas Regaud.
- Technology Competition or Cooperation?: Lee Dongmin, Tai Ming Cheung, Min Eun Joo, Michael Sulmeyer, Yaacob Bin Ibrahim.
Plenary Session IV (CVID or “Peaceful” co-existence?): Choi Kang, Evans J. R. Revere, Yamaguchi Noboru, Yao Yunzhu, Thae Yong-ho.

Exclusive interview with KIM Jong-un - Season III

For the third time*, we've been granted an exclusive interview with KIM Jong-un. If you remember well, the first one followed the medieval execution of Unc' Jang, and the second the putinesque elimination of Bro Jong-nam. This time, I only witnessed North Korea's leader gruesomely murder ten bottles of XI Jinping's Maotai baiju, while we choo-chooed back to Pyongyang in his private train.

Seoul Village: "Hey, that's expensive booze. Don't you want to make them last a bit longer? Or did you get guarantees from XI for a free refill?"

KIM Jong-un: "Don't worry, that's part of the agreement we reached in Beijing: every fortnight, somewhere in the South China Sea, an Eritrean supertanker sailing under Panama flag will transfer its whole shipment to a North Korean fishing boat."

SV: "Wait. You're talking supertanker on one side, and fishing boat on the other... How will that ever fit?"

KJU: "We'll use Russian pipes for the transfer - robust stuff, Made in Rason; I collect 99%, Jinping's family 49%, Vladimir 34%, and the rest naturally trickles down through the usual DPRK black market channels. Of course, Paul Manafort gets his cut, and everybody's happy."

SV: "Sounds legit. You mentioned an agreement with China..."

KJU: "Xi."

SV: "Well that's pretty much the same now. So what's the deal?"

KJU: "Obviously, I had to pledge some sort of allegiance. The trick was to not overdo boot-licking, and to avoid as much ass-kissing as possible - believe me, considering Xi's considerable tummy, that required expert level in circumnavigation."

SV: "I see. I also see that you're circumnavigating my question as well."

KJU: "Don't test me. Remember that when I test something, even mountains can collapse... Well Xi treated me like a kid, but I got a few candies in return - our restaurants in China can operate again, for example. And if the US ever try to strike North Korea, China will step in. So when (if) I meet The Donald in May, sanctions won't bite as much as they do now, and there will be a third 800-pound gorilla in the room. When you think that just weeks ago I was totally cornered, and about to get bombed** right after Pyeongchang... now I'm safe until at least May, and under the protection of The Godfather himself..." 

Ri Sol-ju (in beige), Kim Jong-un (in Mao neck jacket), XI Jinping (in red tie-carpet-vases), Peng Liyuan (in cowhide)

SV: "I presume Xi was not happy to learn that you could meet Trump before himself."

KJU: "Now that one got me flummoxed in the first place. I never imagined that Don would accept that quickly. But then again, our meeting may never happen."

SV: "But you did confirm Xi you were committed to denuclearization, right?"

KJU: "Yup, with the usual caveat: I've always been willing to denuclearize once all the conditions are there: first the US-ROK drills stop, then the US withdraw completely from the peninsula and from Japan (I'll throw the Philippines and Guam in for good measure), then Korea reunites under my rule, and only then I give up all my nukes."

SV: "For good?"

KJU: "Sure, forever. Just like the States and Russia when they pledged to do so."

SV: "So if I get it right, you keep your job, your regime, your nukes. But you return under Beijing's wing, and you have to resist the urge to test new toys for a while."

KJU: "Bah. Anyway, testing nukes in Punggye-ri or what's left of it was getting each time trickier. Xi suggested me to ask some of my customers to test my products for me in their own most deserted wastelands."

SV: "I get the picture. And I bet Bashar has paved the way for many new potential sites. With this new diplomatic frenzy of yours, we may all start from a blank slate."

KJU: "Peace, at last."

SV: "I almost forgot. You'll meet MOON Jae-in pretty soon..."

KJU: "Who?"

SV: "MOON, the South Korean president." 

KJU: "Ah, that guy. Well I have to, haven't I? After all he's done to get me out of this mess. I guess I'll have to find him a job for after the Unification. Not the management of Moranbong, anyway - I already promised that one to the dude who was supposed to succeed him."

SV: "AHN Hee-jung? He's heading for jail, now - Mr Nice Guy turned out to be Weinstein on steroids."

KJU: "Precisely the kind of people I can trust. I also have a job in mind for John Bolton when this is all over."

SV: "Uh... Bolton's American. And not exactly a fan of yours."

KJU: "He's my next Chief of Staff. I need to recruit radical warmongers just like him. Also, people who thrive in corrupt environments, experienced ones like PARK Geun-hye or LEE Myung-bak. Zuck is already helping me source new talents."

SV: "Mark Zuckerberg?!?"

KJU: "Our JV, Kimchi Analytica, has been screening social networks for years. How do you think we selected you for our interviews? And as an expert in Weapons of Mass Disinformation, would you like to head our KCNA?"


Seoul Village 2018
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* see "EXCLUSIVE-Second interview with KIM Jong-un", "Exclusive interview with KIM Jong-un" - Agence Fausse Presse.
** see "Alert!"

Year of the Underdog

This is, so far, the image I'd keep from the Pyeongchang Olympics: Lee Sang-hwa and Nao Kodaira enjoying a victory lap together*. Beyond the victory of the Japanese underdog over the Korean double olympic champion, the victory of fair-play and mutual respect, timeless values in sport, even more admirable for a decade-old rivalry in uber-competitive speed-skating. 

'Even more than the joint North Korea - South Korea ice hockey team forced down a coach's throat, the genuine mutual respect between Nao Kodaira and Lee Sang-hwa in speed skating short track can help bring two people together' (20180219 - twitter.com/theseoulvillage/status/965479212130893827)

So in the land of bballi-bballi, in times of over-speeding news cycles, I'd like to pause and enjoy olympics as they were meant to be. And I sincerely hope that Olympic Athletes from Russia will not be allowed to parade under their national flag for the closing ceremony, particularly after the latest doping scandal (in curling, of all sports!).

And don't forget your gift for the new year: the free ebook of my 2007 short story "Year Of The Dog".



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* no, not that obvious one (see "Closing doors at Pyeongchang's Opening Ceremony")

China Dependence

If XI Jinping doesn't eat himself to death, he'll be leading China well into the next decade. And as he hosted the APEC meeting, he already tried to pose as a new breed of World leader, some kind of a super-blob absorbing every disturbance:
- Airpocalypse? Suspended for the occasion. It came back with a vengeance afterwards, and Seoul got a mean whiff of it for Suneung.
- Democracy? Distant umbrella clicking sounds muffled by thick red padded walls. Even the World's supposedly ultimate Democratic leader came bruised up (a red-painted America for Obama's last Midterm Elections).
- TPP? Sorry to hear about your China-free Trans-Pacific Partnership struggle. Here's our China-led Free Trade Area of the Asia Pacific (FTAAP). And Vladimir? I'm not forgetting our Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, we'll invite Modi and India soon. Meanwhile, here's another big contract for you...
- Shinzo Abe? The Imperial Japan revivalist thought their handshake would mark a diplomatic victory for him, Xi turned it into a public humiliation (a red face as visible as the dot on the flag for Abe, once again shaming the nation).

Meanwhile, South Korea and Park Geun-hye confirmed their honeymoon with China and Xi Jinping by concluding their FTA deal, a few days after the official launch of clearinghouse services by China’s Bank of Communications branch in Seoul (November 6).

I need a pull

We got a deal

Do you think Vlad the Impaler is coming our way?

Asia Pacific leaders beamed down to the size of blue cells.

If you remember the survey recently led by the Asan Institute on "South Korean Attitudes on China" (20140703) and "South Korean Attitudes on the Korea-US Alliance and Northeast Asia" (20140424), Koreans seem to consider their growing dependence on China as ineluctable, and they don't feel so comfortable about it.

But Koreans are not so comfortable with their economic situation and gloomy demographics either, and many are ready to make a quick buck, whatever the long term consequences. 

Jeju illustrates perfectly the double-edged sword of Korea's growing dependence on China. Local authorities opened Pandora's box in February 2010 by offering F-2 visas to anyone who invests at least KRW 500 m in real estate, and the Chinese jumped in. Mind you: not just as political risk management tools or evasion tactics. As of June 2014, they owned 5.92 million sqm of land worth KRW 580.7 bn, up from 20,000 sqm worth KRW 0.4 bn in 2009. Over the same period, US citizens gained only 4% more land, and Japanese citizens even lost 2% of their total.*

This year, Jeju will welcome over 5M visitors from China. But beyond the construction of hotels and resorts, China doesn't boost local jobs or consumption**. And at this pace, the island could become a Costa del Sol - style environmental + real estate mess. Local authorities are starting to realize the unsoundness of the equation, but Korea opens other regions to similar schemes, to the risk of creating bubbles, and of sucking much needed steam out of nearby projects that are already struggling.

Otherwise, for places like Songdo, bringing China in the equation helps fill existing towers. And speaking of Incheon: look how the city revived its Chinese heritage over the past decades, from one extreme (a community below the radar) to another (a brand new, colorful Chinatown).

In Seoul, Yeonnam-dong (the southern half of Yeonhui-dong until it joined Mapo-gu) enjoys a long history with China too, and it still shows in the architecture, even if you have to dig deeper and deeper to find one of these 'fusion hanok':

Yeonnam-dong hanok tended to have higher ceilings. Fusion architecture for people from Taiwan. (@theseoulvillage 20140815) - twitter.com/theseoulvillage/status/500156842874380288

Restaurant-wise, there are still a few great Chinese institutions in the neighborhood, but for how long? If flocks of Chinese tourists have recently started pouring in, that's to visit the new duty free shops operated by their compatriots in closed touristic circuits that obviously generate a lot of business, but not much for the local economy. Seoulites won't keep coming if they see Yeonnam-dong's charming streets packed with jay-parked tourist buses. Next thing you know, these closed circuits will include big buffets that will further degrade the neighborhood.

Don't get me wrong: of course China is a chance for Korea at all levels, I'm really happy to see two countries I love develop friendly and fruitful relations, and that's perfectly normal that a big chunk of China's touristic bonanza ends up in Chinese hands. 

I'm just worried about the pace and reach of change, and its impacts on Korea's economy, society, and politics.

Not because China's influence is bad in itself, but because massive and rapid changes could trigger anti-Chinese reactions which could not only damage the relations between both nations, but the multicultural fabric of Korea itself.

Likewise, when I mention political issues, that's not only at the national level (typically: okay for outsourcing part of  North Korea control, not okay to subscribe to the Northeast Project's 'Hanschluss' agenda): who and what will certain local authorities ultimately run for?

We're probably not at that stage yet, but I believe that Korean leaders should keep these risks in mind to work on a sustainable partnership. And that since this partnership cannot be balanced, to strengthen other partnerships in parallel.

*

See also:

• all posts related to China.
• my piece "Is Korea really the younger, smarter brother of China?" (The Korea Herald - 20111127)

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* "Chinese snap up real estate on Jeju" (Korea JoongAng Daily - 20141103), "Surge in Chinese investors in South Korea’s Jeju Island since 2009 may be to secure residency" (South China Morning Post - 20140903), "Chinese investment is taking over Jeju Island" (The Hankyoreh - 20141004)
** "Chinese Investment in Jeju Not Bringing Consumption, Employment to Region" (Business Korea - 20140829)

... Et Spiritu Sanctiones

Pope Francis* gone, Korea is left with its multiple divisions: North v. South, Right v. Left, East v. West, Gangnam v. Gangbuk, Have mores v. Have nots, Tradition v. Blingbling, Kennip/ddeok v. Nip/tuck...

Starting from the most obvious divide, could inter-Korean relations be revived?

As we've seen before, PARK Geun-hye is definitely more open to engagement than her predecessor LEE Myung-bak, who all but offered North Korea to the advocates of 'Hanschluss'** in Beijing. On Liberation Day***, she renewed her proposal to collaborate on the protection of DMZ ecosystems, but her government is considering taking part to more ambitious projects, particularly in transport infrastructure (see "Seoul mulls helping NK transport system" - Korea Times 20140818).

Seoul decently couldn't let much longer China, Russia, or even Japan**** control all key entry points to the northern half of the peninsula. Particularly along that most vital Kaesong-Pyongyang-Sinuiju backbone, about which China and the DPRK signed a railway MOU a couple of months ago (see "China reaches high speed into North Korea... and post-Juche East Asia").

But Seoul decently can't appear to support the North Korean regime either. Even neutered by China (no more nuclear trials, we tolerate your series of rocket launches as long as they remain C.P.C.-P.C.), DPRK remains an abominable dictatorship with an awful human rights record*****. And now, only brain dead NBA / JWA veterans like Dennis Rodman or Antonio Inoki accept to pose all smiles with local leaders.

Hard to develop activities without some level of cooperation, a word that immediately brings to certain minds the spectre of LEE Seok-ki-style, hardcore collabos. And the legal framework makes it even harder, with an increasing number of sanctions. The U.N. Security Council passed series of them, the latest batch in 2013 (UNSCR 2087), but South Korea is even more blocked by its own 'May 24 Sanctions' implemented in the wake of the Cheonan sinking in 2010, and the US may well pass their "North Korea Sanctions Enforcement Act of 2013" by the end of this year. It passed the Senate and should get a nod from the House (see below House Resolution 1771 below, the full text submitted last April).

As we go to e-print, HR 1771 only passed the first hurdle (Senate)
beta.congress.gov/bill/113th-congress/house-bill/1771 (full text at the end of this post)

Sanctions against North Korea are typically the kind of issues a divided Congress can easily agree upon, and for the House an opportunity to prove it can pass something. Even if the DPRK dropped beneath US radar over the past few months (courtesy ISIS and friends), it remains a prestigious trophy for the bill sponsors, starting with Rep. Edward R. Royce (R-CA), chair of the Committee on Foreign Affairs.

The bill was drafted by Joshua Stanton, founder of OneFreeKorea, and heralded by NK pundit Lee Sung-yoon, who was invited to present HR 1771 last week at the ASAN Institute ("To change Pyongyang: North Korea Sanctions Enforcement Act 2013") where, the day before, John S. Park. Lee exposed his new research on the secondary effects of sanctions ("Targeted Sanctions and the Counterproliferation Puzzle: The Case of North Korea"). 

Stimulating talks. If Sung-yoon Lee implacably defends sanctions, John S. Park wants to make sure we know what we're doing:

• Lee advocates targeted sanctions to limit collateral damage, but accepts them as inevitable. If the regime collapses brutally, 'so be it'. Gaesong Industrial Complex? 'Futile'. Let's put back DPRK on the list of terror-sponsoring states, and let's force the POTUS to enforce sanctions that may not all bear fruits, but can't work at all as long as there's no mechanism to implement them. No compromise, except maybe to preserve useful contacts between the Superhermit Kingdom and the outside - typically, I asked him if tourism, a field connected to luxury goods, could become a target at the service level, and he answered that no, tourism has to remain an exception (as long as the luxury goods line is not crossed, but where to draw it? ask Kempinski for Ryugyong, or the Swiss manufacturers of ski equipments for Masikryong). Even NGOs are expected to put more pressure on Pyongyang, to ask for more transparency if they want to keep operating.
• Park compares sanctions to antibiotics, which can cure but also help an organism develop some resistance. He wants to know more about the unintended consequences of sanctions, particularly by interviewing refugees and defectors who have worked in State corporations. What kind of Plan Bs were designed? What kind of legal loopholes were explored? What kind of illegal routes were taken? For instance, he knows that takes 15 mn to wire money to North Korea via China (the cash is ready, and the middlemen take a 25% cut), but he'd love to know how DPRK manages to 'hide in the open', how it can apparently reduce its energy shortages and at the same time receive officially less oil from China. I asked him about potential new players. From a Darwinian point of view, we are helping a dinosaur evolve into a much more complex, diverse, agile, and somehow future-proof creature. We may be at the same time weakening the regime as a monolith, and strengthening North Korea as an ecosystem (does what doesn't kill Kim Jong-un make DPRK stronger?). And like we've been training terrorists during our wars in the Middle East, aren't we training a new breed of 'guerilla capitalists', thriving in the underground DPRK-China trade, but eager to explore new territories? For the moment, Park answered, we see the same faces on the North Korean side. But he fears some sanctions may maximize risks of proliferation or illegal trade by generating more entry points, more sophisticated, and less detectable.

By nature, I'm drawn to non-black-v.-white positions, and North Korea happens to be all about grey zones, so I felt more comfortable with John S. Park's approach. On the other hand, passing a bill in DC will certainly make existing sanctions more efficient, particularly as a deterrent for third parties: no one wants to be the next BNP Paribas - the French bank was fined $8.9 bn for dealing with nations blacklisted by the US.

Since it's all about securing entry points to North Korea and building legal frameworks, working on including new entry points to new legal frameworks seems to make sense. Not as in making pacts with the Devil, but as in monitoring the Gateways to Hell.

Seoul Village 2014
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* see "K-Pope mania hits Seoul, Jongno-style"
** on the 'Hanschluss Scenario', see among others "Game over for the 'Hanschluss' scenario?" and "Re-engaging North Korea - A Four Party Talk"
*** BTW since last year ("The Elusive Independence Day - When will Japan officially proclaim its Independence from Imperial Japan?"), Japan is still not liberated from Imperial Japan: 80 MPs and cabinet members visited Yasukuni on August 15th. Note that Summus pontifex eventually met with 7 survivors of Imperial Japan sexual slavery system for his final mass in Myeongdong Cathedral yesterday.
**** if Shinzo Abe keeps palling around with Kim Jong-un: "Abductors talking abductions - Revisionists talking revisions"
***** see "North Korea, Beware - Rest Of The World, Be Aware"

--- HR 1771 at this stage ---

beta.congress.gov/bill/113th-congress/house-bill/1771 

H.R.1771 - North Korea Sanctions Enforcement Act of 2013113th Congress (2013-2014)
Sponsor: Rep. Royce, Edward R. [R-CA-39] (Introduced 04/26/2013)
Committees: House - Financial Services; Foreign Affairs; Homeland Security; Judiciary; Oversight and Government Reform; Ways and Means | Senate - Foreign Relations
Committee Reports: H. Rept. 113-560
Latest Action: 07/29/2014 Received in the Senate and Read twice and referred to the Committee on Foreign Relations.
Summary (as introduced in House 04/26/2013):

North Korea Sanctions Enforcement Act of 2013 - Directs the President to investigate credible information of sanctionable activities involving North Korea and to designate and apply sanctions with respect to any person (referred to as a "designated person" and includes business entities, nongovernmental organizations, and governmental entities operating as business enterprises) the President determines is knowingly:
. contributing, through the export to or import from North Korea of any goods or technology, to the use, development, production, stockpiling, or acquisition of nuclear, radiological, chemical, or biological weapons, or any device or system designed to deliver such weapons;
. exporting, or facilitating the export of, defense articles and services to North Korea, or from North Korea to any other country;
. exporting, or facilitating the export of, any luxury goods to North Korea;
. providing, selling, leasing, registering, or reflagging a vessel, aircraft, or other conveyance, or providing insurance or any other shipping or transportation service used to transport goods to or from North Korea, for purposes of facilitating a specified unlawful activity or evading a regulation established under this Act or the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA);
. transferring, paying, exporting, withdrawing, or otherwise dealing with any property or interest in property of the government of North Korea for purposes of facilitating such unlawful activity or evading such regulations;
. engaging in or facilitating censorship by North Korea; or
. committing or facilitating a serious human rights abuse by North Korea. 

Directs the President to designate and exercise IEEPA authorities with respect to the government of North Korea as well as any person or foreign government the President determines has been:
. listed or sanctioned under any regulation, specified executive order, or the IEEPA for illicit activities or activities concerning North Korea's proliferation of weapons of mass destruction;
. sanctioned under U.N. Security Council resolutions concerning North Korea's proliferation of weapons of mass destruction; or
. convicted of a criminal offense for engaging in sanctionable activities. 

Authorizes the President to exercise IEEPA authorities with respect to any foreign government or financial institution the President determines to be:
. engaging in sanctionable activities involving North Korea;
. failing to freeze funds, assets, or economic resources of a person designated pursuant to the requirements above or that could be used to facilitate sanctionable activities relating to imports or exports;
. failing to monitor import and export transactions appropriately;
. permitting any North Korean financial institution to open any new branches, offices, or joint ventures within its jurisdiction, or to take an ownership interest in, or establish or maintain a correspondent relationship with any bank in its jurisdiction, if it could be used to facilitate sanctionable import or export activities;
. failing to prohibit transfers of bulk cash to and from North Korea in facilitation of sanctionable import or export activities;
. providing public financial support for trade with North Korea to facilitate such import or export activities; or
. facilitating the use of any proceeds of the bribery of North Korean government officials, or the misappropriation, theft, or embezzlement of public funds by, or for the benefit of, such officials.

Sets forth civil and criminal penalties under the IEEPA.

Establishes the North Korea Enforcement and Humanitarian Fund in which assets subject to criminal, civil, or administrative forfeiture or penalties are to be deposited for the enforcement of this Act and to carry out humanitarian activities under the North Korea Human Rights Act of 2004.

Expresses the sense of Congress that the government of North Korea should be treated as a primary money laundering concern that may be required to undertake special measures with respect to the recordkeeping and reporting of certain financial transactions as well as the identification of customers or retention of information relating to certain beneficial ownership, payable-through, or correspondent accounts. Directs the Secretary of the Treasury to require domestic financial institutions to apply special measures to certain designated entities. 

Directs domestic financial institutions to terminate various accounts maintained for persons, foreign governments, or financial institutions required to be designated as engaging in sanctionable activity under this Act and for foreign financial institutions providing services to such designated entities.
Prohibits a designated person that is a domestic financial institution from serving as a primary dealer in U.S. debt instruments or as a repository for U.S. funds. 

Sets forth authority for the President to prohibit certain foreign exchange and banking transactions, revoke transaction licenses, and direct the Secretary of State to deny visas to designated aliens.
Permits the President to impose sanctions against persons providing specialized financial messaging services to designated North Korean financial institutions. 

Requires a validated license for exports to North Korea under the Export Administration Act of 1979. Prohibits munitions and defense articles from being provided to North Korea under the Arms Export Control Act regardless of whether it is designated as a state sponsor of terrorism. 

Bars U.S. government contracts from being provided to designated persons. 

Authorizes the seizure or forfeiture of vessels or aircraft used to facilitate sanctionable activities. 

Directs the President to withhold assistance to the governments of countries providing defense articles or services to North Korea or receiving such articles or services from North Korea. 

Sets forth exceptions to designations under this Act and authorizes the President to waive designations and sanctions, for a period of up to one year, upon the President's submission to Congress of a determination that the waiver:
. protects vital U.S. economic and national security interests,
. benefits entities cooperating with investigations, and
. addresses humanitarian aid considerations while meeting other specified standards. Permits the President to temporarily suspend sanctions with a certification to Congress under specified circumstances and to prescribe rules for removing sanctions. 

Directs issuers of financial securities regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to disclose activities relating to North Korea in annual and quarterly reports. 

Authorizes state and local governments to divest assets and prohibit investments in companies that invest in North Korea. 

Exempts North Korea from the jurisdictional immunity of foreign states, thereby enabling plaintiffs to seek certain damages against North Korea regardless of whether it is designated as a state sponsor of terrorism.