After OH Se-hoon's Hangang Renaissance, Who In 2022?

If both Seoul and Busan delivered landslide victories to PPP candidates, yesterday's by-elections were less a conservative triumph than a crushing defeat for the ruling party, and a double-edged sword win for moderates between two much more consequential votes.

Here's the score:

• Busan: PARK Hyun-joon (PPP) 63% - KIM Young-choon (DP) 34%
• Seoul: OH Se-hoon (PPP) 57.5% - PARK Young-sun (DP) 39%
• Both winners claimed 100% of the districts*.
   
  

OH Se-hoon campaigning in Sinchon on April 6 (photo S.M.)

PARK and OH offered rather humble acceptance speeches out of respect for the context and the expectations of voters, but also in sharp contrast with the ruling party who, last year, interpreted their landslide win at the 2020 legislative elections as, instead of a referendum on the handling of the pandemic, an absolute mandate for the very reforms that, under normal circumstances, should have led to their defeat:

• They not only kept undermining the separation of powers in the name of justice reform, but prolonged the CHO Kuk scandals with the CHOO Mi-ae and YOO Mee-yang scandals... They even managed to create, all by themselves, their strongest presidential challenger to date: YOON Suk-yeol.
• They not only pushed even further suicidal real estate reforms that kept crushing the middle class and leading have-nots to have even less, but also got entangled in the LH scandals.
  

No wonder even the inept, irrelevant PPP could defeat this embarrassing crew. Yet conservatives shouldn't make the same mistake as the DP, and believe or claim that conservatism won. It's a democratic, centrist alliance that made all the difference. And what Korea wants, what Korea needs now is neither an ideological, stubborn conservative rule, nor a ideological, stubborn left, but a pragmatic, moderate, centrist, uniting leadership**. 

Actually, conservatives lost the PPP primaries when center-right OH Se-hoon defeated NA Kyung-won. And the pact OH cemented with AHN Cheol-soo (who won the centrist primaries against  KEUM Tae-sup) worked perfectly: they wrapped up their poll-based primaries right on time, and campaigned together in a rare display of political fair play.

Centrist leader AHN Cheol-soo and weather vane kingmaker KIM Chong-in on stage in Sinchon, campaigning for OH Se-hoon on the eve of the 4.7 elections (photos S.M.)

When announced the winner yesterday on TV, OH Se-hoon was obviously very moved, and remained seated for a few seconds. Probably thinking about the miscalculation that cost him his job ten years ago, when he put it in the balance for an unnecessary referendum on school lunches (ironically, the left won by campaigning against a measure of social justice usually pushed by socialist parties - only the rich pay for it)***. Maybe remembering his exile in Kingali and Lima, his failed political return five years ago (see "OH Se-hoon returns... but did he ever leave?").  Certainly reflecting about how, just weeks ago, he was still an underdog...

Bumped into #Seoul candidate #OhSehoon in #Sinchon...#서울 #신촌 #오세훈 pic.twitter.com/aXHzXLSCzw

— Seoul Village (@theseoulvillage) April 6, 2021

Now OH looks ideally positioned for the 2027 presidential elections, except for the fact that he is once more facing a hostile majority at the Seoul metropolitan council. He only won the job for 15 months (the remainder of PARK Won-soon's mandate), and will have to campaign again next year with little chance to bring significant change in between: even before the elections, LEE Nak-yon let everybody know that his party would obstruct his every move... LEE's dumb statement immediately backfired but anyway, after yesterday's debacle, the ruling party's former front-runner doesn't stand any chance for 2022's main prize: Cheong Wa Dae.

Who will win next year's presidential elections? 

If the PPP learns the lessons from Seoul, they will try to further evolve, and build a big tent reaching for the center and YOON Suk-yeol, whom AHN Cheol-soo has already been rooting for. A PPP momentum means less room for a fully independent candidate. I'm not sure the former top prosecutor will want to run, but this liberal certainly won't do it under a very conservative banner.

The ruling party will probably try to perform some cosmetic changes and bring new faces, but they have to abandon the anti-democracy path they've chosen recently, and preferably with a better candidate than a Trump-style populist like LEE Jae-myung. He could win, but then Korea would lose.

Whatever The Future brings, this being Korea, we shall be hearing some more about real estate during the campaign...

'WTF. Seoul election results by... subway lines and stations!!! Actually quite entertaining. Oh Se-hoon. Park Young-sun' (@theSeoulVillage - 20210407 - twitter.com/theseoulvillage/status/1379795550023774213)

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* Beyond Seoul's 25 'gu', OH even won every single 'dong' / neighborhood, except 3:

• Seongsan 1-dong (Mapo-gu) by 168 votes
  
• Hwagok 8-dong (Gangseo-gu) by 309 votes
  
• Guro 3-dong (Guro-gu) by 863 votes. 

** I should add 'inclusive', because that's also what Korea needs. But not yet what Korea wants. OH Tae-yang, the first openly LGBT candidate for Seoul mayor, finished 9th out of 12 with 6,483 votes (0.13%). That's a first step, but Korean politics remain overwhelmingly homophobic.

*** In case you forgot, the referendum that caused OH Se-hoon his job, and the scandal that hit his rival KWAK No-hyun right afterwards, opening a path for a very lucky PARK Won-soon: "Seoul free school lunch referendum (continued)" (20110612), "In memoriam OH Se-hoon" (20110824), "Kwak's "gros couac" (20110830)

A new mayor for Seoul, a new landscape for 2012

As expected, PARK Won-Soon won the 10.26 mayoral elections by a wide margin (53+/46+). Rival NA Kyung-won did close the gap following successful TV debates (see "Park-Na debate on KBS"), and she even took the lead in polls, but a scandal involving president LEE Myung-bak (suspicious conditions for land acquisition regarding his future residence and police staff) spectacularly inverted the trend, and a final push from PARK's sponsor AHN Cheol-soo buried all remaining hopes for NA, for whom PARK Geun-hye proved more a drag than a boost.

With both local candidates lacking OH Se-hoon's charisma and reach, Seoul served more than ever as a national test, the results confirming structural political divides between rich and poor districts, and between younger generations and older citizens.

At the national level, PARK Geun-hye definitely took her first major blow since the GNP leader and the founder of AhnLab are supposed to face each other for next year's presidential elections. A symbol of paleo-conservatism, PARK Chung-hee's daughter has been around for years without disclosing any sign of appetence for reform. A total newcomer in politics, AHN Cheol-soo has yet to prove his capacity to manage and reform an administration. His best card remains his Independant label : traditional parties have lost all appeal and particularly to the country's middle class and younger generations.

PARK Won-Soon won with the support of a liberal coalition but as an Independent. Focusing on the demolition of his predecessor's heritage or sterile witch huntings following the absurd battle for free lunches at school (see previous episodes) would pave the way for a noxious presidential campaign next year.

Seoul must remain on the positive path set by OH, who boosted the city's attractiveness at the global as well as at the local level : 78% of Seoulites feel they belong to the capital compared to only 65% in 2006.

The new mayor must now work on bringing all Seoulites together, confirming the city's positive evolutions, a setting an ambitious but sustainable vision for the future.


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Park-Na debate on KBS

The October 26 Seoul Mayoral race (and the traditional mudslinging contest that comes with it) is raging between GNP nominee NA Kyung-won and AHN Cheol-Soo's protégé PARK Won-soon, the independent who defeated the DP favorite PARK Young-sun in the liberal primaries.

Both candidates debated yesterday on KBS, and it's hard to tell who will prevail.

NA looked definitely more ready for the job, the former lawyer exposing a clear vision and a perfect understanding of all key challenges and issues when PARK remained at the principles level, refusing to enter into any details, even regarding his strategy*. Oddly, the representant of the opposition looked on the defensive against the "incumbent", who seeked a positive approach reminiscent of OH Se-hoon's.

PARK struck exclusively the emotional chord, putting sometimes too much emphasis on his Beautiful Foundation (half of his final one-minute pitch !), and I guess he appealed better to the older segment of the audience. But frankly, from what I saw yesterday, this man doesn't seem to understand what the job is all about, what's at stake for the future of Seoul. He did enter the race quite late as a total outsider, but a minimum of preparation was expected.

PARK also exposed a suicidal stubbornness regarding the "Younghwa Bridge" episode : 30 of the 40 bn KRW needed for the renovation have already been invested, but he said he would leave it like that, just to illustrate the waste of money caused by previous administration (OH Se-hoon). PARK confirmed that yesterday, even when reminded that it would mean more hassles and traffic jams for Seoulites (if you take this bridge one of these days you understand the statu quo is not an option, and the bridge had to be renovated because it had caused many accidents in the past). Needless to say, NA pointed out his irresponsible attitude and the fact that he was, again, more into criticizing than proposing.

Still, NA remains behind in the polls. And a NA win would mean more months of cohabitation around City Hall...

Either way, let's hope Seoul will not lose its momentum.

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Kwak's "gros couac"

The ultimate loser in last week's school lunch referendum* may not necessarily be OH Se-hoon.

The man who fought him on the issue, Seoul Education Superintendent KWAK No-hyun, will probably have to resign as well... but for a much less honorable reason : bribery. If corruption is unfortunately pandemic in Korean politics, the role of the corruptor even less glamourous.

KWAK admitted to giving KRW 200 M to a rival following last year's elections, but out of pity because the man was suicidal. Prosecutors believe it was the price for his withdrawal from the race.

Even before the elections, KWAK was criticized for blaming foreign schools and sending his kid to one at the same time. And I've already made my case* against his free lunch program, which is already very much contested as schools face the financial consequences of its implementation. But he promoted a very positive reform : making physical punishment illegal in Seoul schools.

This embarrassing case surfaced on August 24, the very day of the referendum, but only became public the next day : evidences arrived too late, and the risk to change unfairly the outcome of the vote was too big.

OH Se-hoon would have probably mobilized enough voters to pass the referendum. Now he's licking his wounds and looking for a new home, preferably in Gangbuk. Maybe he'll end up renting a hanok, who knows ?

After allowing the destruction of too many hanoks or such assets as Pimatgol, OH embraced preservation (ie for Seochon). And as expected, Seoulites start to realize the importance of this Mayor's legacy, particularly in the transformation of Seoul from a hard city to a soft city (ie neighborhood parks, human towns, redistribution of budgets from rich to poor districts, pedestrian areas, Gwanghwamun Square, art and design centers, global centers...).

As expected too, some of OH's more controversial pet projects will not survive his resignation : the three floating islands are already completed, but some parts of Hangnang Renaissance shall be abandoned, as well as his dream of a highway for tourist boats...

His successor will be elected on October 26, and a few candidates have already declared themselves. Han Myeong-sook (DP), who lost by a thin margin last time, was not among them but she leads the polls... even if she herself is being investigated for corruption. A duel with Na Kyung-won (GDP) would ensure a first female Mayor for the Korean capital.

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* see "In memoriam OH Se-hoon", "Seoul free school lunch referendum (continued)"...
** see "Seoul-Incheon canal"