Shinzo Abe: an offensive Defense White Paper ahead of the elections... and Constitutional Revolution

On July 21, 2013, Shinzo Abe will probably win with his LDP the House of Councillors elections, and move closer to his dreams of revising the Constitution, discarding the peaceful nature of Post-War Japan, and restoring the belligerent nature of Imperial Japan (see "ABE forced to back down a bit. For the moment. Next PR stunt: KIM Jong-un").

The "Defense of Japan 2013" annual white paper issued on July 9 by Defense Minister Itsunori Onodera justifies the first increase in Japan's defense budget in 11 years by depicting East Asia as a region on the brink of war, where everybody's beefing up their military capacities: North Korea's nuclear threats got more serious than ever, "China’s activities in the sea/air area surrounding Japan involve its intrusion into Japan’s territorial waters, its violation of Japan's airspace and even dangerous actions that could cause a contingency situation", "Russia continues to intensify its military activities", and even Southeast Asian countries are forced to modernize their military forces.

Diplomacy is not an option. Obviously, Shinzo Abe is not familiar with that weapon, and his arsenal wish list certainly doesn't include it.

Needless to say, Japan's neighbors didn't like the document. Particularly since the Abe government made sure to pour more oil on the fire by reviving, on the side, tensions around Dokdo, Senkaku, or Kuril islands: the expected anger and outrage will once more be used to prove to the quiet Japanese public that indeed, their neighbors are nothing but hot tempered barbarians.

The Chinese did receive a special treatment. Miscellaneous:

• "In regard to the issues of conflicting interests with its surrounding countries, including Japan, China has attempted to change the status quo by force based on its own assertion which is incompatible with the existing order of international law. The attempts have been criticized as assertive and include risky behavior that could cause contingencies"
• "China has been broadly and rapidly modernizing its military forces, and has been rapidly expanding and intensifying its activities in its surrounding waters and airspace. These moves, together with the lack of transparency in its military affairs and security issues, are a matter of concern for the region and the international community, including Japan"
• "Some of China’s activities in the sea/air area surrounding Japan involve its intrusion into Japan’s territorial waters, its violation of Japan's airspace and even dangerous actions that could cause a contingency situation, which are extremely regrettable. China should accept and stick to the international norms."
• "In the South China Sea, there are territorial disputes between Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries and China over the Spratly Islands and the Paracel Islands"
• "In FY2012, the number of scrambles exceeded 500 times for the first time in 22 years. The number of scrambles against Chinese aircraft exceeded the number of those against Russian aircraft for the first time"
• ... and what to make of this surreal pearl?: "the environment surrounding the Xi government would not be rosy."

I find quite interesting the map the MOD chose to represent Japan under China's threat. Look at the vast mass of China on the bottom, hardly contained by the thin archipelago barrier and particularly Okinawa, protecting the US territory of Guam in the distance (Korea almost obliterated by the captions). I love this horizontal view, with these solar eruptions of yellow arrows transpiercing poor Japan... whose leaders would probably love to restore the infamous War Flag of Imperial Japan (Rising Sun Flag):



I'm not saying that imperialism doesn't exist in Beijing, just that it's a "first take the log out of your own eye" situation. Anyway, before their next expedition to Senkaku / Diaoyu, the Chinese will have re-read Tokyo's manual of Self-defense (section "Defense of Japan’s Offshore Islands"):

• "If signs of attack are detected in advance, SDF troops will be concentrated in the area expected to be attacked ahead of the deployment of enemy units, thereby trying to deter attacks by the enemy.
• If the enemy shows no sign of refraining from launching an attack, operations will be conducted to prevent it. If no signs of aggression are detected in advance and islands are occupied, operations will be conducted to regain the islands by defeating the enemy with air-to-ground and ship-to-ground firing and by landing GSDF units."

If this white paper looks a bit whiter than the previous edition, that's only because the text is seldom accompanied with illustrations; last year, for instance, the sections "Effective Deterrence and Response" and "Frameworks for Responses to Armed Attack Situations" looked like GI Joe trailers. As if the editors didn't want to pass too clearly for warmongers.

Many sections didn't change, starting with the core principles Abe wants to change along with the Constitution... even if I doubt he'll drop the controversial "boost nationalism" part in the "Basic Policy for National Defense". The document states that "there is no established definition for the term 'military power'", but be assured he has something in mind, something consistent with the "right of belligerency" he's been advocating.

What we'd like to hear is Shinzo Abe be very specific, loud and clear, ubi et orbi, about his vision and his ultimate goals, how he would rewrite the Constitution, redefine the nation, what would be allowed and not allowed for its defense of the nation (NB: for info, I put below* the DoJ 2013 WP's section "The Constitution and the Right of Self-Defense"). But the National Defense Program Guidelines will only be reviewed after the elections, and to get these specifics we'll have to wait until the end of this year.

Well. According to The Asahi Shimbun (BTW speaking of the Rising Sun flag, I wonder when these guys will change their logo), expected changes include the capacity, for Self Defense Forces, "of striking military targets in enemy countries" ("White paper echoes Abe's plans to strengthen Japan’s defense" - Asahi Shimbun 20130710)

Anyway, unlike Toru Hashimoto, Abe always comes short of speaking his mind out. If he never leaves any room for misinterpretations, he knows how to use symbols and circular references when he's venturing into the most outrageous territories (see exhibit A: "Can't top that? Shinzo Abe posing as Shiro Ishii, the Josef Mengele of Imperial Japan").

Yesterday, The Asahi Shimbun also feigned to point out potential sources of misunderstanding (this time in "EDITORIAL: Defense white paper underlines threats, ignores diplomatic efforts" - Asahi Shimbun 20130710):

• "This is precisely the time for Japan to act responsibly and make its policy clearly understood. In that sense, "Defense of Japan 2013" is hardly lucid.
  For instance, it says the government is not allowed to exercise the right to collective self-defense in line with the existing government view. On the other hand, the white paper refers elsewhere to a government advisory panel set up to review interpretations of the Constitution and notes that "the government will first wait for the conclusion of the panel."
  Taken together, the two statements only serve to muddle the government's position. It is hardly in Japan's interest to invite unnecessary suspicion" (...) "The government must not neglect to explain its position clearly at home as well as to the rest of the world."
  NB: as far as explanations are concerned, the DoJ 2013 WP specifies mere propaganda at the local level: "Regional Defense Bureaus hold seminars on defense issues for local residents and give briefings on the defense white papers to local public entities, with an aim of gaining the understanding of defense policies from the general public".

So will the right for peace triumph over the right for belligerency? The Japanese opposition being not very vocal about the issue, the population remains overwhelmingly unaware of the dangers. But one thing is sure: belligerence being defined as an aggressive or warlike disposition or behavior, Shinzo Abe is already there.

And the main question remains: will the people of Japan keep letting Shinzo Abe say and do what he wants, and follow him along this suicidal path?


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* From "Defense of Japan 2013":

Section 2 The Constitution and the Right of Self-Defense 1 The Constitution and the Right of Self-Defense Since the end of World War II, Japan has worked hard to build a peace-loving nation far from the miseries of war. The Japanese people desire lasting peace, and the principle of pacifism is enshrined in the Constitution, of which Article 9 renounces war, the possession of war potential, and the right of belligerency by the state. Nonetheless, since Japan is an independent nation, these provisions do not deny Japan’s inherent right of self-defense as a sovereign state. Since the right of self-defense is not denied, the Government interprets this to mean that the Constitution allows Japan to possess the minimum level of armed force needed to exercise that right. Therefore, the Government, as part of its exclusively national defense-oriented policy under the Constitution, maintains the Self-Defense Forces (SDF) as an armed organization, and continues to keep it equipped and ready for operations. 2 The Government’s View on Article 9 of the Constitution 1 The Permitted Self-Defense Capability Under the Constitution, Japan is permitted to possess the minimum necessary level of self-defense capability. The specific limit may vary with the prevailing international situation, the technologies available, and various other factors, and it is discussed and decided according to annual budgets and other factors by the Diet on behalf of the people. Whether such capability constitutes a “war potential” that is prohibited by Article 9, Paragraph 2 of the Constitution must be considered within the context of Japan’s overall military strength. Therefore, whether the SDF should be allowed to possess certain armaments depends on whether such possession would cause its total military strength to exceed the constitutional limit. The possession of armaments deemed to be offensive weapons designed to be used only for the mass destruction of another country, which would, by definition, exceed the minimum necessary level, is not permissible under any circumstances. For example, the SDF is not allowed to possess intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM), long-range strategic bombers, or attack aircraft carriers. 2 Requirements for Exercising the Right of Self-Defense The Government interprets Article 9 of the Constitution to mean that armed force can be used to exercise the right of self-defense only when the following three conditions are met: (1) When there is an imminent and illegitimate act of aggression against Japan; (2) When there is no appropriate means to deal with such aggression other than by resorting to the right of self-defense; and (3) When the use of armed force is confined to be the minimum necessary level. 3 Geographic Boundaries within which the Right of Self-Defense may be Exercised The use of the minimum necessary force to defend Japan under the right of self-defense is not necessarily confined to the geographic boundaries of Japanese territory, territorial waters and airspace. However, it is difficult to give a general definition of the actual extent to which it may be used, as this would vary with the situation. Nevertheless, the Government interprets that the Constitution does not permit armed troops to be dispatched to the land, sea, or airspace of other countries with the aim of using force; such overseas deployment of troops would exceed the definition of the minimum necessary level of self-defense. 4 The Right of Collective Self-Defense International law permits a state to have the right of collective self-defense, which is the right to use force to stop an armed attack on a foreign country with which the state has close relations, even if the state itself is not under direct attack. Since Japan is a sovereign state, it naturally has the right of collective self-defense under international law. Nevertheless, the Japanese Government believes that the exercise of the right of collective self-defense exceeds the minimum necessary level of self-defense authorized under Article 9 of the Constitution and is not permissible. 5 The Right of Belligerency Article 9, Paragraph 2 of the Constitution prescribes that “the right of belligerency of the state will not be recognized.” However, the “right of belligerency” does not mean the right to engage in battle; rather, it is a general term for various rights that a belligerent nation has under international law, including the authority to inflict casualties and damage upon the enemy’s military force and to occupy enemy territory. On the other hand, Japan may of course use the minimum level of force necessary to defend itself. For example, if Japan inflicts casualties and damage upon the enemy’s military force in exercising its right of self-defense, this is conceptually distinguished from the exercise of the right of belligerency, even though those actions do not appear to be different. Occupation of enemy territory, however, would exceed the minimum necessary level of self-defense and is not permissible.

PS: on a more "positive" (?) note, activists from Africa and Asia joined the weekly Wednesday Demonstration demanding justice for victims of sexual slavery under Imperial Japan rule ("Comfort Women"), the extremist Nobuyuki Suzuki was convicted for defaming the Pyeonghwabi statue inaugurated during the rally's thousandth edition (see "One Thousand Wednesdays"), and the Seoul High Court ordered Nippon Steel to compensate victims of forced labor during the occupation, since the company "committed crimes against humanity by mobilizing forced labor for the sake of the war of aggression by the Japanese government".

Silver lining, darker clouds

Good news first. US Representative Mike HONDA sent this tweet yesterday: "Just visited nation's 1st comfort women memorial in Palisades Park, NJ. Proud to bring attention to their suffering", along with a picture where, to his right, we recognize Mayor James RETUNDO and Deputy Mayor Jason KIM (we met last year at ASAN Institute - see "We reject as false the choice between revisionism and nationalism - for a Global Truth and Reconciliation Network").



Mike HONDA has been in office since 2001 in the Californian district hosting the Silicon Valley, but his record reaches far beyond the predictable high tech or immigration issues. HONDA was born in Walnut Grove, CA just a few months before the attack on Pearl Harbor, and grew up in a Japanese American internment camp. So he knows a thing or two about Japan history, as well as about unfair discrimination. For instance, in the wake of 9/11, he stood up for American Muslims, who were too often conflated with terrorists. And of all members of the House of Representatives, it was this Japanese American who proposed the Resolution 121 demanding formal apologies from Japan for Imperial Japan's sexual slavery system (reminder: the resolution passed in 2007).

Good news again, but of the lukewarm kind: the Abenomics imposture seems to be wearing off. Don't get me wrong: I'm not happy that Japan's economic revival is weakening, I love Japan, and I want this country to succeed. I'm just satisfied that people start questioning Shinzo Abe's trick: this dangerous leader was not trying to help Japan, but bribing the Japanese people at their own expenses in order to pass anti-democratic reforms (see "ABE forced to back down a bit. For the moment. Next PR stunt: KIM Jong-un").

Now entering bad news territories. I just read a distressing Hankyoreh reportage about "Inside Japan’s growing xenophobic right-wing", where Zaitokukai, a hate group, invited media to feed the buzz. Stopping very very very short of calls for murders, these guys don't hide their hatred of Koreans and Korean Japaneses / Zainichi; they don't hesitate to parade in Tokyo's Koreatown, just like Toru Hashimoto, the Mayor of Osaka, the city that hosts the biggest Korean community, doesn't hesitate to issue the most outrageous provocations about the victims of Imperial Japan's sexual slavery programs (see "So you want to know what is 'necessary', Mr Hashimoto?").
 
And if you browse the web, you can easily find similar nauseous xenophobic stuff. Without leaving the twittersphere, take these pieces of junk for instance:
 

"Japanese beauty VS filthy korean" - note the flags, the pseudo and Twitter handle...

 

"Women who are pretending Japanese" - note the outrage to the memorial statue for the victims of sexual slavery (see "One Thousand Wednesdays")...

 

If Japan doesn't have the exclusivity for extremist minorities, it's high time that authorities did something to outlaw openly racist organizations and individuals.
 
Of course, with "authorities" such as Shinzo Abe, calling for a minimum of decency is just wishful thinking.


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ABE forced to back down a bit. For the moment. Next PR stunt: KIM Jong-un

At long last, Shinzo Abe marked a pause in his outrageous streak of provocations by backpedaling a bit and very evasively on recent comments*:

• "No apology": Abe said that after all, he would not dump Tomiichi Murayama's 1995 statement, the first embryo of official apologies from a Japanese government for the atrocities committed under Imperial Japanese rule. That's a good thing, but not a major surprise: that statement was a red line that many even within his own party thought too risky to cross**.
• "Invasion": Abe said "I never said Japan did not invade other countries". Which is technically true, but technically as well, this man is still refusing to confirm that Japan invaded other countries!
• "Necessary": Abe said that neither he nor his party shared Toru Hashimoto's views on Comfort Women (see "So you want to know what is 'necessary', Mr Hashimoto?"). Here too, Abe doesn't state clearly what his own views are.***

So let's not rejoice too soon. Here, Shinzo Abe is just aknowledging his limits of the day after testing how far he could go without facing any resistance. We've watched him grow bolder and bolder, and now he's simply redeeming a few Godwin Points from his Imperial Japan Airlines mileage program, after collecting a record bonus in his recent infamous Flight 731 (see "Can't top that? Shinzo Abe posing as Shiro Ishii, the Josef Mengele of Imperial Japan").

International pressure definitely played a role, and the Unit 731 provocation backfired, triggering many articles on the very atrocities Abe and his friends try to obliterate from memories, just like the lobby of Japanese lawmakers against memorials for Comfort Women erected in the US backfired last year (see "We reject as false the choice between revisionism and nationalism - for a Global Truth and Reconciliation Network").

But Shinzo Abe doesn't care much about international pressure: I think he was forced to back down a bit by members from his own party, who probably reminded him that the most important for them was to pass the modification of the Article 96 of the Constitution, which makes it difficult to change the Constitution itself. Right now, you need each of the 2 houses to get 2/3 of their members vote the change, then ratify it through a popular vote (referendum). If Shinzo Abe's LDP doesn't have a majority by itself, fellow hardliners Your Party and Hashimoto's Restoration Party share the same goal of destroying the safeguards of Japanese democracy, starting with the fundamental Article 9, which clearly states that Japan is a peaceful nation ("Aspiring sincerely to an international peace based on justice and order, the Japanese people forever renounce war as a sovereign right of the nation and the threat or use of force as means of settling international disputes").

So nothing has changed yesterday. Shinzo Abe has only be reminded by fellow warmongers that he should keep his eyes on the ball: we must first destroy Japan as a democracy.

Yesterday, Shinzo Abe also confirmed that he considered meeting Kim Jong-un. His government sent an envoy to Pyongyang against the strict recommendations of Japan's allies... but maybe Mr Abe sees more kinship in such democracies as North Korea, Russia or Iran, who knows?

Anyway, both "Kim The Third" and "Shiro Abe" badly need a PR stunt to raise their profiles as East Asia's top "diplomats"...


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* see "Abe Bows to Int'l Pressure Over WWII Apology" (Chosun Ilbo 20130516)
** see "Interpretations of Japan's wartime history causing rift in ruling LDP" (Asahi Shimbun 20130514)
*** Note that Japanese voices rose loudly to condemned Hashimoto: Okinawa women's associations (see "Okinawa women’s groups condemn Hashimoto justification of sex slaves" - Japan Times 20130516)... but some may say Okinawa itself is not completely Japan...
*** I wrote something about that episode on my French blog ("L'extreme-droite Japonaise invite Le Pen... et les projecteurs"), and later on Rue89 ("La visite de Le Pen au Japon, coup de com pour l'extrême droite nippone")
*** see "Abe Hints at Meeting Kim Jong-un" (Chosun Ilbo 20130516)

Can't top that? Shinzo Abe posing as Shiro Ishii, the Josef Mengele of Imperial Japan

It didn't take Shinzo Abe long to reply to Toru Hashimoto.

Reminder  (see "So you want to know what is 'necessary', Mr Hashimoto?"): Osaka Mayor just claimed a spectacular warholian moment in the sick race to the most outrageous AbeIGNomics* provocation.

So what did Japan's PM do this time? He posed for a photo op, all smiles and thumb up, in the pilot seat of a war plane with the number "731" painted next to the Japanese flag. To make sure, ubi et orbi, that this number was not unintentional, it was topped by a mention in English: "Leader S. Abe".

The reference to the infamous Unit 731 could hardly be clearer. That's the Harbin-based unit where the Japanese Imperial Army performed atrocious human experimentations during the 1930s and 40s. And who was the "Leader" of Unit 731? Shiro Ishii, a monster who escaped trial for war crimes by sharing his nasty secrets with the US, part of a revolting deal that not only amounted to one of the lowest moments in the history of the great American democracy, but also crippled Japan's nascent democracy, preventing the nation from facing its troubled past, and paving the way for revisionists such as Shinzo Abe.

Yesterday, as Shinzo Abe all but dressed up as Shiro Ishii, the US joined China in a most vehement condemnation.

In the eyes of the international community, Abe made his ultimate coming out as an all-out fascist supporting all the atrocities committed by the Imperial Japanese regime.

Imagine a German Chancelor who would have previously headed a revisionist association, and who would now deny Nazi war crimes, say deportees chose to go to the camps, contest the word "invasion" to qualify the aggression of Poland, and parade as a Josef Mengele fan**. Inimaginable? Welcome to 2013 Japan. 

Again*, the biggest scandal is the deafening silence of Japanese citizens before the political and moral suicide of their great nation.

Even the people who disagree with Abe, know about the darkest moments of Japan history, and know their nation is in great danger remain silent and do nothing.

Wake up! Speak up! Stand up for Japan! 

Or be doomed.

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* see "Dear Japan, Please Say No To Abeignomics" - have your say on Twitter: #abeignomics
** CHUNG Mong-joon compared Shinzo Abe to an Angela Merkel "riding an aircraft with the Nazi swastika", but Abe deliberately reaches as far as possible into that abomination

So you want to know what is 'necessary', Mr Hashimoto?

Osaka Mayor Toru Hashimoto is a young and ambitious far-right politician who struggles to exist in Japan's political landscape, now a foul smelling swamp where even mainstream parties position themselves between ultra-nationalism and hardcore historical revisionism.

This unhealthy marketing niche has become so mainstream and crowded that last year's general elections quickly boiled down to a sick race for the most outrageous provocations. To keep the helm of his Democratic Party of Japan, supposedly a center-left organization, PM Yoshihiko Noda all but provoked a war with China and Korea (see "Japan politics? No to Comfort women, yes to Political whoring"). Of course, Noda was weeks later demolished by experts in the field, Shinzo Abe emerging as the clear winner. This outspoken negationist soon confirmed his priority: the methodical destruction of Japan's democracy.

I always hope that some day, Japanese citizens will refuse to see their country follow this suicidal path (see "Dear Japan, Please Say No To Abeignomics"), but if Shinzo Abe's latest provocations about "the definition of what constitutes aggression" caused a major international uproar, they proved politically correct in today's Japan: his approval rates remain sky high, and Abe even progressed to 72% five months after his inauguration, where his predecessors had already nosedived to 30-45%! Yomiuri Shinbun published the results today, and if the public seems more convinced by Abenomics than by what I called "Abeignomics", only a tiny majority of 51% oppose the constitutional changes that Abe is so desperate to make.

Again, a German Chancelor who'd dare denying Nazi atrocities would be fired on the spot, and that goes without saying. But in Japan, you obviously can't become or remain Prime Minister without proving negationist credentials or bowing in front of the remains of war criminals. And the Mayor of the city boasting Japan's biggest Koreatown can make the most outrageous remarks about "comfort women" without causing major riots in front of his city hall (well aren't Zainichi Koreans treated as sub-citizens anyway*?).

Yesterday, Osaka Mayor's latest provocation was to say that "a comfort women system (was) necessary" during WWII. Of course, what if necessary is apologies, justice, making revisionism and negationism illegal, and banning people like Abe and Hashimoto from East Asian politics.



The things that you're liable to read in future Japanese textbooks, it ain't necessarily so

Mr Hashimoto's party is resolutely right-wing, and its name itself reeks of noxious nostalgy: "Japan Restoration Party" is not just about reducing the US influence in the archipelago. Marketing-wise, it claims a third path distinct from the usual suspects (LDP and DPJ), but as we saw before, issuing that sort of positioning statement isn't that easy. And the young leader had to mark some more or less subtle differences with the "new" Prime Minister, without running the risk of passing for a dove, which resulted in a nauseous collection of comments. In substance: Abe is right when he says that academically, there are no definitions on "aggression"/"invasion", Abe is wrong when he doesn't support Murayama's 1995 apologies, but we probably wouldn't have had to apologise, had we won the war...

As usual in Japan (see previous provocations), international outrages are often driven by the national agenda. Toru Hashimoto probably felt the need to catch some spotlight because he's fighting for survival: his party is on the verge of implosion. Shintaro Ishihara might decide to split again and a much older politician, the former Governor of Tokyo has already proved he could fly with his own far-right wings. Ishihara has the perfect pedigree: he's racist, and considers the "Nanjin Massacre" as a myth.

Barf bag, anyone?


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* see "100 years of Koreans in Japan"
** see "Hashimoto says ‘comfort women’ were necessary part of war" (The Asahi Shimbun 20130513)