A new MOON Jae-in?

As expected, MOON Jae-in claimed Cheong Wa Dae with a very comfortable margin even without gaining ground beyond his base, and AHN Cheol-soo failed to hold the center.

As feared, the embarrassingly extreme HONG Jun-pyo finished second, confirming how the ultra-hardcore-conservative line remains a strong political force in the country. YOO Seong-min fought with honor, but reformers need a more charismatic leader to prevail, and to save the right.

To the left, SIM Sang-jung made her case with brilliance and humor, and her moderate voice is more likely to be heard and to bring positive change in the future than the usual radical activists.

In general and except for HONG, the debate was more gentle. This could continue even further with people like AHN Hee-jung.

Now Korea truly needs to move away from polarized politics, and the new president will have to show the way, to foster innovation across politics, society, and the economy. Dialog and innovation being not MOON's forte, he will have to evolve, and to surround himself with not just the old farts he promised jobs in the administration.

Here's how I concluded a piece I wrote last week for Asialyst ("Corée du Sud : la politique reprend ses vieilles habitudes"):

"The winner of the election will be judged by his capacity to revive the economy and to defend the nation in front of rather peculiar characters (Kim Jong-un, Xi Jinping, Shinzo Abe, Donald Trump, Vladimir Poutine…), but also and mostly to reunify South Korea with itself by leveraging last Winter's formidable democratic movement.

If elected, Moon will have to become the uniter he has yet to prove he can be. This majority-less assembly seems a rather sound base to prevent the usual pendulum swings. After all, this assembly already proved it could successfully work in a president-free nation, reaching consensuses on issues as tricky as budget or the impeachment process.

Which brings us back to the core debate initiated during the 'Miracle of The Han People': we can't wait until the 2020 parlementary elections to advance on key issues demanding cool heads, like the revision of the Constitution, or the eradication of corruption in the judiciary system.

It would also be a good opportunity to push an idea that is not yet on the agenda, but would considerably strenghten democracy and depollute this great quinquennal show: switching to a two-round presidential election."

Last time I saw MOON on Gwanghwamun Square was under sadder circumstances (ROH Moo-hyun funeral in 2009 - "A Yellow Sea for Roh Moo-hyun")

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All options on the table

Many Korean correspondents in DC have recently shared their highest fears ever over risks of war in the Peninsula, and we can only hope that Donald TRUMP's new envoy to Korea, USS Carl Vinson, won't have to grow more talkative than 'Elusivarus Rex' Rex TILLERSON...

All options are on the table

On one hand, it's scary enough to see this short-fused POTUS pull out a new deadly toy in the region just days after striking Syria...

'The Hustler? XI Jinping not comfortable with Trump's 8 ball Syria-North Korea combo (KIM Jong-un unhappy with Syria strikes) - Heng cartoon' (20170410 - twitter.com/theseoulvillage/status/851233905646555140)

... On the other hand, the US can't find comfort in the fact that the DPRK's ICBMs needs some more time to reach its mainland: KIM Jong-un proved that he could already strike with precision all the US bases in the region, giving its forces a decisive head start when the gimchi hits the fan.

And I feel just a bit less worried now that Steve BANNON will get fewer chances to chime in where it matters most:

Steve BANNON can't always control himself. Please don't let him walk again.

Of course, all this happens less than a month before the elections in South Korea, where victory seems granted to either the untested AHN Cheol-soo, or the divisive MOON Jae-in. Can the former resist G2 pressure (Trump-Xi)? Can the latter be harder than tofu against KJU?

For the moment, even if all options are on the table here as well, MOON confirms that he can't build trust beyond his own base, and that his easiest path to victory lies in the emergence of small candidates dividing the votes. 

AHN Hee-jung trapped in unwinnable primaries and refocusing on 2022, and conservatives failing to find a champion, Cheol-soo quickly and effortlessly gathered across the aisle the Anyone-But-Moon front, and toughened up enough to show that this time he will go all the way. Recent polls give him the lead in both 5 and 6 candidates scenarii:

'For the first time, a poll with 6 candidates shows AHN Cheol-soo ahead of MOON Jae-in (Chosun Ilbo). Later still can't reach beyond own base' (20170409 - twitter.com/theseoulvillage/status/851043736951824384)
'Yonhap-KBS poll with 5 candidates confirms AHN Cheol-soo's lead over MOON Jae-in. <20 a="" href="http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/news/2017/04/09/0200000000AEN20170409003900315.html" no="" regional="" rifts="" target="_blank" undecided="">english.yonhapnews.co.kr/news/2017/04/09/0200000000AEN20170409003900315.html' (20170410 - twitter.com/theseoulvillage/status/851227886631624704)

For the moment, HONG Jun-pyo, SIM Sang-jung, and YOO Seong-min don't syphon many votes out of the AHN wave. As he focuses on attacking MOON, KIM Chong-in could become more audible, but he doesn't represent the future either.

Interesting to see the latest poll* in detail:
- the traditional age rifts diminish (the younger generation still favor MOON, but less than before, and 'only' until 50)
- the traditional regional rifts seems less relevant (AHN leads in Jeolla-do - where he claimed many seats - and Gwangju as well as in conservative strongholds - Daegu and Gyeongsang-do rally behind him)
- fewer than 20% remain undecided

It will be more about character and issues than ideology. So get ready for April surprises.

A positive April surprise would be the arrest of WOO Byung-woo. Korean justice needs to be purged from its enemies from within, but compromission is so pervasive that many could fall, and one can wonder if judges and prosecutors will have the courage to open Pandora's box. 

Still better than a nuclear explosion. And as the myth goes, hope appears only after all evils have been released from the box. 

But as the percentage of judges who keep heading for the same friendly structures after retirement tells us, the capacity to achieve total success looks like the ultimate myth.


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* "Ahn beats Moon for first time in hypothetical five-way race: poll" (Yonhap News 20170410)