China Dependence

If XI Jinping doesn't eat himself to death, he'll be leading China well into the next decade. And as he hosted the APEC meeting, he already tried to pose as a new breed of World leader, some kind of a super-blob absorbing every disturbance:
- Airpocalypse? Suspended for the occasion. It came back with a vengeance afterwards, and Seoul got a mean whiff of it for Suneung.
- Democracy? Distant umbrella clicking sounds muffled by thick red padded walls. Even the World's supposedly ultimate Democratic leader came bruised up (a red-painted America for Obama's last Midterm Elections).
- TPP? Sorry to hear about your China-free Trans-Pacific Partnership struggle. Here's our China-led Free Trade Area of the Asia Pacific (FTAAP). And Vladimir? I'm not forgetting our Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, we'll invite Modi and India soon. Meanwhile, here's another big contract for you...
- Shinzo Abe? The Imperial Japan revivalist thought their handshake would mark a diplomatic victory for him, Xi turned it into a public humiliation (a red face as visible as the dot on the flag for Abe, once again shaming the nation).

Meanwhile, South Korea and Park Geun-hye confirmed their honeymoon with China and Xi Jinping by concluding their FTA deal, a few days after the official launch of clearinghouse services by China’s Bank of Communications branch in Seoul (November 6).

I need a pull

We got a deal

Do you think Vlad the Impaler is coming our way?

Asia Pacific leaders beamed down to the size of blue cells.

If you remember the survey recently led by the Asan Institute on "South Korean Attitudes on China" (20140703) and "South Korean Attitudes on the Korea-US Alliance and Northeast Asia" (20140424), Koreans seem to consider their growing dependence on China as ineluctable, and they don't feel so comfortable about it.

But Koreans are not so comfortable with their economic situation and gloomy demographics either, and many are ready to make a quick buck, whatever the long term consequences. 

Jeju illustrates perfectly the double-edged sword of Korea's growing dependence on China. Local authorities opened Pandora's box in February 2010 by offering F-2 visas to anyone who invests at least KRW 500 m in real estate, and the Chinese jumped in. Mind you: not just as political risk management tools or evasion tactics. As of June 2014, they owned 5.92 million sqm of land worth KRW 580.7 bn, up from 20,000 sqm worth KRW 0.4 bn in 2009. Over the same period, US citizens gained only 4% more land, and Japanese citizens even lost 2% of their total.*

This year, Jeju will welcome over 5M visitors from China. But beyond the construction of hotels and resorts, China doesn't boost local jobs or consumption**. And at this pace, the island could become a Costa del Sol - style environmental + real estate mess. Local authorities are starting to realize the unsoundness of the equation, but Korea opens other regions to similar schemes, to the risk of creating bubbles, and of sucking much needed steam out of nearby projects that are already struggling.

Otherwise, for places like Songdo, bringing China in the equation helps fill existing towers. And speaking of Incheon: look how the city revived its Chinese heritage over the past decades, from one extreme (a community below the radar) to another (a brand new, colorful Chinatown).

In Seoul, Yeonnam-dong (the southern half of Yeonhui-dong until it joined Mapo-gu) enjoys a long history with China too, and it still shows in the architecture, even if you have to dig deeper and deeper to find one of these 'fusion hanok':

Yeonnam-dong hanok tended to have higher ceilings. Fusion architecture for people from Taiwan. (@theseoulvillage 20140815) - twitter.com/theseoulvillage/status/500156842874380288

Restaurant-wise, there are still a few great Chinese institutions in the neighborhood, but for how long? If flocks of Chinese tourists have recently started pouring in, that's to visit the new duty free shops operated by their compatriots in closed touristic circuits that obviously generate a lot of business, but not much for the local economy. Seoulites won't keep coming if they see Yeonnam-dong's charming streets packed with jay-parked tourist buses. Next thing you know, these closed circuits will include big buffets that will further degrade the neighborhood.

Don't get me wrong: of course China is a chance for Korea at all levels, I'm really happy to see two countries I love develop friendly and fruitful relations, and that's perfectly normal that a big chunk of China's touristic bonanza ends up in Chinese hands. 

I'm just worried about the pace and reach of change, and its impacts on Korea's economy, society, and politics.

Not because China's influence is bad in itself, but because massive and rapid changes could trigger anti-Chinese reactions which could not only damage the relations between both nations, but the multicultural fabric of Korea itself.

Likewise, when I mention political issues, that's not only at the national level (typically: okay for outsourcing part of  North Korea control, not okay to subscribe to the Northeast Project's 'Hanschluss' agenda): who and what will certain local authorities ultimately run for?

We're probably not at that stage yet, but I believe that Korean leaders should keep these risks in mind to work on a sustainable partnership. And that since this partnership cannot be balanced, to strengthen other partnerships in parallel.

*

See also:

• all posts related to China.
• my piece "Is Korea really the younger, smarter brother of China?" (The Korea Herald - 20111127)

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* "Chinese snap up real estate on Jeju" (Korea JoongAng Daily - 20141103), "Surge in Chinese investors in South Korea’s Jeju Island since 2009 may be to secure residency" (South China Morning Post - 20140903), "Chinese investment is taking over Jeju Island" (The Hankyoreh - 20141004)
** "Chinese Investment in Jeju Not Bringing Consumption, Employment to Region" (Business Korea - 20140829)

Assessing China's (hard? soft? normative? discursive? pervasive? comprehensive? blocking?...) Power

After "ping-pong diplomacy", China could be associated with "ping-pong academics": on Wednesday, I attended a nice game at the Asan Institute - or rather a whole marathon, featuring CHUNG Jae-ho as The Middle Umpire.

Asan China Conference 2014 aims at producing another stellar scholar bestseller next year, this time under the theme "Assessing China's Power" (14 chapters covering economy and soft power, military power, global, regional, and Chinese perspectives), with a focus on a comparison with the US, and projections for 2025.

Each contributor was asked to present their work (in various stages of progress) and to review / challenge a colleague's chapter, some shots landing on the referee's lap. As the editor, CHUNG Jae-ho welcomed all constructive remarks, but quite rightly declined the suggestion to set common key definitions because precisely, differences in definitions are essential when you want to grasp China's complexity.

This starts, of course, with the definition of "power". We've heard all the classic debates about hard, soft, normative, or comprehensive power, but I liked CHEN Zhimin's reference to a "blocking" power, which could also echo the technical yet crucial veto right at the UN, go game strategies (where blocking paths is as important as crossing bridges), or even inertia inherent to a continent-country where maintaining unity and a pyramidal power in highly evolutive times and networked societies remains a daunting challenge.

In general, CHEN's inputs were among the most stimulating at the strategic level, and like Evelyn GOH, I wish he shared more of his own views. An unleashed Shaun BRESLIN could venture much further into the wilderness, adding a fun factor to the journey (and along with Francois GODEMENT, potential new catchphrases). 

As a 3G War Veteran, I was very interested in Scott KENNEDY's focus on standardization, and I'd like to hear about his predictions for 5G, where I expect China to play a potentially disruptive mode. To remain in go game territories, I don't expect Chinese players to win, but at least to position more than a few stones here and there. And to prevent single rivals from ruling, even if that means destroying the whole revenue model. Which doesn't mean that China can't work hand in hand with the US, particularly within the Internet Engineering Task Force (IETF) - thank Snowden for small mercies?

And beyond standards, I'd like to read more about challenges in Research and Development: China's rise is truly impressive, but many foreign companies are reluctant to build centers there (an opportunity such neighbors are Korea keep leveraging). Right now, China is still more trusted as a collaborator or a competitor than as a coopetitor.

If by (chapter) construction, we lingered more on Northeast Asia and Southeast Asia (or even the Arctic), India was mentioned a couple of times. Yet not necessarily about the potential wake up of that other sleeping beauty. By 2025, China shall remain more populated, but I'm curious to see how both giants will cope with a different, 250 M strong Pakistan. And I'm not just talking about Afghanistan or Jammu and Kashmir...

Naturally, there are no definite answers, and predictions remain very tricky in this transitional period. So making sure that all the right questions are being asked is probably the book's greatest challenge. In any case, CHUNG pledged to avoid the half-full half-empty glass trap, and judging by the work in progress and the remarks raised by reviewers, it will be a very interesting read.

As far as China's own ideation dynamics are concerned, I'm still torn between the opportunities borne by the combination of the end of ideology / rise of pragmatism with China's love for strategy and long term vision, and the risks of the losing nationalism-materialism game.

Around CHUNG Jae-ho: KIM Hankwon, Scott KENNEDY, Francois GODEMENT, Shaun BRESLIN, ZHAO Suisheng, CHEN Zhimin - twitter.com/theseoulvillage/status/451162295398182914

Assessing no China's military capabilities: Andrew ERICKSON, Michael CHASE, Kevin POLLETER - twitter.com/theseoulvillage/status/451209570883338240

Perception of China power at Asan China Conference with Evelyn GOH, David KANG, Shaun BRESLIN - twitter.com/theseoulvillage/status/451242682065514496

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Asan China Conference 2014 - “Assessing China's Power”:

• 09:45 - 10:00 Welcoming Remarks (Hahm Chaibong, The Asan Institute for Policy Studies), Introductory Remarks (Chung Jae-Ho, Seoul National University)

• 10:00 - 11:40 Session I - China's Economic/Soft Power:
• Presenters: Francois Godement (European Council on Foreign Relations), Scott Kennedy (Indiana University), Kim Hankwon (The Asan Institute for Policy Studies)
• Discussants: Shaun Breslin (University of Warwick), Zhao Suisheng (University of Denver), Chen Zhimin (Fudan University)

• 13:00 - 14:40 Session II - China's Military Capabilities:
• Presenters: Andrew Erickson (US Naval War College), Michael Chase (RAND Corporation), Kevin Pollpeter (University of California, San Diego)
• Discussants: Linda Jakobson (University of Sydney), You Ji (East Asian Institute, Singapore)

• 15:00 - 18:00 Session III - Global, Regional and Chinese Perspectives on China's Power:
  
• Session III-1 (15:00-16:35) Global and Regional Contexts: 
• Presenters: Shaun Breslin (University of Warwick), David Kang (University of Southern California), Evelyn Goh (Australian National University)
• Discussants: Francois Godement (European Council on Foreign Relations), Scott Kennedy (Indiana University)

• Session III-2 (16:35-18:00) Chinese Perspectives:
• Presenters: Zhao Suisheng (University of Denver), Chen Zhimin (Fudan University)
• Discussants: David Kang (University of Southern California), Evelyn Goh (Australian National University)

• 18:00 - 18:10 Concluding Remarks (Chung Jae-Ho Seoul National University)

Transit

Sorry for getting back to you so late; I just came back from Incredible India to Intense Korea, and I'll need some time to adjust after 3,000 km on the road (not to mention the planes, buses, trains, cars, cycle rickshaw, elephants...). Yes, I also have over 5,000 pictures to sort, but they're worthless compared to the real thing.

There to, I came across fascinating alleyways, villages, and ghosts. The most haunting one? That tall meditator standing eyes wide open, facing the traffic on the median lane of our side of the highway, somewhere between Jaipur and Agra. He disappeared between two lorries and miraculously emerged alive, the sari violently flapping around his skinny frame. When we passed by him, he didn't even blink.

---
ADDENDUM 201402

My snapshots series from Rajasthan, Delhi, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh:


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Utsav (Seoul)

This promising new place between Hongik University and Sangsu Station proposes an ambitious fusion menu and architecture where patrons can taste various Asian foods around an exotic yet modern patio.

On the verge of pretension, this contrast of subtle flavors and grey concrete succeeds overall because the food is more than ok. No one can get every speciality perfectly right (Thailand, Indonesia, India...), but that's a good moment if you come with friends and zap from one dish to another. Utsav also proposes buffets at a reasonable price (smart launch campaign last year).

Utsav / 웃사브 (restaurant)
93-102 Sangsu-dong, Mapo-gu, Seoul, ROK
Tel: +82.2.334.9189

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In 2050, almost 10% of Korea's population will not be Korean

Not so long ago, Korea celebrated its first millionth foreigner (see "One Million Aliens"). The Korea Research Institute for Human Settlements (KRIHS) expects that number to reach 2.5 M in 2020 and 4 M in 2050*.

We recently learnt that at the same mid-century horizon, and even in spite of the "mixed kids" boom, Korean population will be 13% smaller than now ("The Incredible Shrinking Korea").

The combination of both trend means that in 2050, almost 10% of the people living in Korea will not be Korean.

My guess is that at least one third of these "foreigners" will be Korean. Either ethnic Koreans from China, or North Koreans, or ethnic Koreans from the US and other parts of the diaspora.

One day or the other, tough political choices will have to be made.

I'm not talking about measures to revert birth ratio trends, but about decisions regarding naturalization and rights given to non-nationals.

Many people in their twenties to thirties left the country over the past decades, and their kids may be more prone to choose Korean nationality if the Government understands the need to welcome fresh blood with an international background. Depending on the situation up North, military duties could change dramatically by 2050, facilitating the return of prodigal sons who escaped Korea's tough education and military service systems.

But the most important choices shall regard ethnic Koreans from China and North Korea. How will Korea cope with their increasing number ? After decades of integration, they will necessarily become a political force, even if they don't have the right to vote. You certainly don't want Korea to be demographically "hanschlussed" by China, but you don't want Koreans to treat their brothers like "burakumin" or second-class citizens either.

Tensions are bound to rise over the next decades, and rulers must invest NOW in education and pedagogy if they want to prevent major crises. Korea shouldn't wait until racism and prejudice grow stronger to fight at their roots. Korea should prepare the population for a better and more diverse future : immigration is a chance for Korea and for its identity, not a threat. And in exchange, Korea must provide opportunities for immigrants to contribute more directly as an essential part of the community.

I'm really impressed by all the efforts made to help newcomers, but I'm not sure the Korean population is as well prepared for the changes to come.

Now is the time to decide which path the country will follow for this century.



Seoul Village 2009



ADDENDUM 20090907

An awful racial incident may trigger change. This week-end, an Indian professor was verbally aggressed by a drunk man on a bus in Seoul. The culprit is charged, but people noticed that the law was not adapted for this kind of situations, and something positive could come out of this shameful moment.

SM

KRIHS : krihs.re.kr


* see "Foreigners to make up 10 pct of Korea's population in 2050: report" (Yonhap 20090903)