No Collision?

Last year, KIM Jong-un was about to perform historic walks across the demarcation line with MOON Jae-in (see "Chirps vs Tweets"). This time, he was hours away from boarding a train to Vladivostok, and Putin. But where will he be heading for, right after the 2020 Asan Plenum: Japan? Switzerland? NYC? The ICC? And if KJU ends up six feet under, will it be because of a collision with the US? an obstruction of his windpipe? a Saturday Night Massacre caused by the big bang of Mount Paekdu's supervolcano? Who knows?

"#KimJongun: "Vladimir Vladimirovich, can you help me lift #sanctions against #NorthKorea?" Putin: ..." (20190424 - https://twitter.com/theseoulvillage/status/1120932441219145730)

We do know one thing: in these tricky and uncertain times, the Asan Plenum is always a very special moment to better feel the pulse of our very special peninsula, our very special region, and our very only planet. This year felt even more complete with much more female voices among the experts invited on stage*, and a most powerful, liberated North Korean voice: THAE Yong-ho's.

Here was someone who illustrated admirably this year's theme, 'Korea's Choice'. THAE risked his life, and chose Korea. Not North Korea, not South Korea, but as a true patriot, the Korea that he believes all Koreans should aim for.

⚡️ “Asan Plenum 2019 - Korea's Choice” in tweets:https://t.co/lUPXmlByTj #AsanPlenum @asaninst #Korea #ThaeYeongho

— Seoul Village (@theseoulvillage) April 25, 2019

Seoul Village 2019
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* see Asan Institute's Asan Plenum 2019 program. If you don't see Trump and China on the menu, they are of course all over the map.

Day 1 (April 23, 2019):
Welcoming Remarks: HAHM Chaibong
Keynote Address: James B. Steinberg
Plenary Session I (G1 or G2?): Choi Kang, Evelyn Goh, Douglas H. Paal, James B. Steinberg, Zhang Tuosheng, Zhao Xiaozhuo
Session 1:
- ROK-U.S. Alliance: Sue Mi Terry, Kim Sung-han, Marc Knapper, Sydney A. Seiler, Soeya Yoshihide, Zhu Feng.
- U.S.-Japan Alliance: Park Cheol hee, Kent E. Calder, Richard McGregor, Tokuchi Hideshi, Wang Dong.
- NATO: Choi Jinwoo, Ian Anthony, Pascal Boniface, Kestutis Paulauskas, Brooke A. Smith-Windsor, Alexander Vershbow.
Plenary Session II (Collective Memory or Collective Future?): Philip Stephens, Hahm Chaibong, David Harris, Aleksandra Gliszczynska-Grabias, Volker Stanzel.
Book Launch (Asan CHUNG Ju-yung's Autobiography 'Born of This Land: My Life Story'): Hahm Chaibong, Chung Mong-joon, Edwin J. Feulner, Karen E. House, Lee Hong Koo, Paul D. Wolfowitz.
Night Sessions:
- North Korea’s Choice: Nuclear Issue: Jung H. Pak, Chun Yungwoo, Bruce Klingner, Nishino Junya, Jonathan Pollack, Scott A. Snyder.
- North Korea’s Choice: Economic Reform: Go Myong-hyun, Thomas Byrne, Furukawa Katsuhisa, John Park (and Hazel A. Smith).

Day 2 (April 24, 2019):
Plenary Session III (Nationalism or Internationalism?): Lee Chung Min, Pascal Boniface, Edwin J. Feulner, G. John Ikenberry, Yuli Tamir, Paul D. Wolfowitz.
Session 2:
- Is Democracy in Crisis?: Gilbert Rozman, Ladan Bouroumand, Chu Yun-han, Martin Fackler, Karen E. House, Philip Stephens.
- Immigrants or Refugees?: Marie McAuliffe, Mely Caballero-Anthony, Gordon Flake, Lee Jasmine, Neil G. Ruiz, Jay Song.
- Values or Interests?: J. James Kim, Kent E. Calder, Fujisaki Ichiro, Gao Fei, Linda Jakobson, T. J. Pempel.
Session 3:
- Free Trade or Fair Trade?: Asif Hasan Qureshi, Ahn Dukgeun, Fukagawa Yukiko, Patrick Messerlin, Tami E. Overby.
- Arms Control: Kato Yoichi, Abe Nobuyasu, Alexander Gabuev, Park Jiyoung, Nicolas Regaud.
- Technology Competition or Cooperation?: Lee Dongmin, Tai Ming Cheung, Min Eun Joo, Michael Sulmeyer, Yaacob Bin Ibrahim.
Plenary Session IV (CVID or “Peaceful” co-existence?): Choi Kang, Evans J. R. Revere, Yamaguchi Noboru, Yao Yunzhu, Thae Yong-ho.

Exclusive interview with KIM Jong-un - Season III

For the third time*, we've been granted an exclusive interview with KIM Jong-un. If you remember well, the first one followed the medieval execution of Unc' Jang, and the second the putinesque elimination of Bro Jong-nam. This time, I only witnessed North Korea's leader gruesomely murder ten bottles of XI Jinping's Maotai baiju, while we choo-chooed back to Pyongyang in his private train.

Seoul Village: "Hey, that's expensive booze. Don't you want to make them last a bit longer? Or did you get guarantees from XI for a free refill?"

KIM Jong-un: "Don't worry, that's part of the agreement we reached in Beijing: every fortnight, somewhere in the South China Sea, an Eritrean supertanker sailing under Panama flag will transfer its whole shipment to a North Korean fishing boat."

SV: "Wait. You're talking supertanker on one side, and fishing boat on the other... How will that ever fit?"

KJU: "We'll use Russian pipes for the transfer - robust stuff, Made in Rason; I collect 99%, Jinping's family 49%, Vladimir 34%, and the rest naturally trickles down through the usual DPRK black market channels. Of course, Paul Manafort gets his cut, and everybody's happy."

SV: "Sounds legit. You mentioned an agreement with China..."

KJU: "Xi."

SV: "Well that's pretty much the same now. So what's the deal?"

KJU: "Obviously, I had to pledge some sort of allegiance. The trick was to not overdo boot-licking, and to avoid as much ass-kissing as possible - believe me, considering Xi's considerable tummy, that required expert level in circumnavigation."

SV: "I see. I also see that you're circumnavigating my question as well."

KJU: "Don't test me. Remember that when I test something, even mountains can collapse... Well Xi treated me like a kid, but I got a few candies in return - our restaurants in China can operate again, for example. And if the US ever try to strike North Korea, China will step in. So when (if) I meet The Donald in May, sanctions won't bite as much as they do now, and there will be a third 800-pound gorilla in the room. When you think that just weeks ago I was totally cornered, and about to get bombed** right after Pyeongchang... now I'm safe until at least May, and under the protection of The Godfather himself..." 

Ri Sol-ju (in beige), Kim Jong-un (in Mao neck jacket), XI Jinping (in red tie-carpet-vases), Peng Liyuan (in cowhide)

SV: "I presume Xi was not happy to learn that you could meet Trump before himself."

KJU: "Now that one got me flummoxed in the first place. I never imagined that Don would accept that quickly. But then again, our meeting may never happen."

SV: "But you did confirm Xi you were committed to denuclearization, right?"

KJU: "Yup, with the usual caveat: I've always been willing to denuclearize once all the conditions are there: first the US-ROK drills stop, then the US withdraw completely from the peninsula and from Japan (I'll throw the Philippines and Guam in for good measure), then Korea reunites under my rule, and only then I give up all my nukes."

SV: "For good?"

KJU: "Sure, forever. Just like the States and Russia when they pledged to do so."

SV: "So if I get it right, you keep your job, your regime, your nukes. But you return under Beijing's wing, and you have to resist the urge to test new toys for a while."

KJU: "Bah. Anyway, testing nukes in Punggye-ri or what's left of it was getting each time trickier. Xi suggested me to ask some of my customers to test my products for me in their own most deserted wastelands."

SV: "I get the picture. And I bet Bashar has paved the way for many new potential sites. With this new diplomatic frenzy of yours, we may all start from a blank slate."

KJU: "Peace, at last."

SV: "I almost forgot. You'll meet MOON Jae-in pretty soon..."

KJU: "Who?"

SV: "MOON, the South Korean president." 

KJU: "Ah, that guy. Well I have to, haven't I? After all he's done to get me out of this mess. I guess I'll have to find him a job for after the Unification. Not the management of Moranbong, anyway - I already promised that one to the dude who was supposed to succeed him."

SV: "AHN Hee-jung? He's heading for jail, now - Mr Nice Guy turned out to be Weinstein on steroids."

KJU: "Precisely the kind of people I can trust. I also have a job in mind for John Bolton when this is all over."

SV: "Uh... Bolton's American. And not exactly a fan of yours."

KJU: "He's my next Chief of Staff. I need to recruit radical warmongers just like him. Also, people who thrive in corrupt environments, experienced ones like PARK Geun-hye or LEE Myung-bak. Zuck is already helping me source new talents."

SV: "Mark Zuckerberg?!?"

KJU: "Our JV, Kimchi Analytica, has been screening social networks for years. How do you think we selected you for our interviews? And as an expert in Weapons of Mass Disinformation, would you like to head our KCNA?"


Seoul Village 2018
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* see "EXCLUSIVE-Second interview with KIM Jong-un", "Exclusive interview with KIM Jong-un" - Agence Fausse Presse.
** see "Alert!"

Which model for Korea tomorrow?

(Translation of an article I recently published - in French - on the Korean paradox: "Quel modele pour la Coree demain?" - Asialyst - 20151001)

Which model for Korea tomorrow?

Seventy years after its liberation, Korea seems at the same time more present than ever on the global stage, and full of doubts. This nation has countless times proved its capacity to bounce back and to surprise, but today does it have to reinvent itself?

Diplomacy: can yesterday's weakest link become tomorrow's keystone?

With such neighbors as China, Russia, and Japan, plus an unruly (to say the least) brother up North, South Korea would have had a tough time surviving without the support of the United States. Yet as much as her spectacular economic boom (now a major contributor to world institutions, then at the other end of the charity chain), her opening to China helped her become a key diplomatic power: a UN secretary general, the first G20 host in Asia, and even for a moment the quasi-pivot to the G2, thanks to the good fit between Park Geun-hye and Xi Jinping..., and Shinzo Abe's irresistible urge to undo the democratic progresses of postwar Japan.

While waiting for an elusive reunification that would help her claim yet another dimension, Korea could benefit from perfecting her diplomatic distinctiveness. But this delicate exercise is under a double threat: between their increasing economic dependence to China, and the unconditional support of the USA to Abe's restoration of militarism in Japan, Koreans fear they might end up in the sphere of influence of the former, as hinted by Asan Institute polls.

Politics: can the democracy in the South overcome its own divisions?

If South Korea put an end to dictatorship over a quarter of a century ago, presidencies remain limited to one single term, which contributes to an unbalance of powers; between presidents gone lame duck as soon as they're elected, lawmakers plagued by scandales, and not so independent justice and media, two powers emerge: the almighty familial conglomerates (chaebol), and netizens very motivated to defend democracy, but trusting only the web... which sometimes means spinning the wildest rumor or hoax.

Adding to the traditional geographic divisions (particularly those opposing the conservative South East to the progressive South West), deep generational gaps appear between left-leaning youth and right-leaning seniors. The political debate is at best absent, at worst very contentious or polluted by extreme minorities from both sides (ultraconservatives on one, supporters of the North Korean regime on the other).

Even if they are divided, South Koreans long for reconciliation, and even reunification, a prospect as problematic as ever, but again wished by a majority. The pure, joyful communion of the 2002 World Cup seems far away, and to this day, no one has managed to reunite the South by leveraging this positive energy.

The democratically elected daughter of a dictator, Park Geun-hye had the unique opportunity to set up a new deal and to show the example across the region, but she didn't chose the path of truth and reconciliation. Meanwhile, the opposition is stuck in the quagmire of its own contradictions, and under the influence of leaders trained to resist dictatorship, feels more comfort in organizing permanent demonstrations that in building a sustainable government platform.

As her neighbors opt for ever harder lines (Xi, Putin, Abe, Kim), Korea must avoid the return of ideology, the temptation of populism, and above all the trap of nationalism fueled by Japan's unleashed revisionists.

Economy: can the XXth century's « best follower » become a « leader » in the XXIth?

From state dirigisme to ultra-capitalism, the country went from one extreme to another without reforming its main structural hurdles: its hyper-competitive education system chain produces top performers, but destroys innovators and creative rule changers; its chaebol are unable to share value or to evolve in open ecosystems, and suck up the potential for SMEs and start-ups; and social dialogue is at a standstill (like France, Korea is blocked because she bought trade unions for social peace). Besides, even as it multiplies FTAs across the World, the nation knows how to deter major international players who want to succeed in its service sectors - after Walmart and Carrefour, Tesco just called it quits.

Avis' old « we try harder » campaign against Hertz remains a textbook marketing case where #2 outdoes itself to become #1, but once at the top struggles to take on true leadership. For Korea, who built her success by always doing better than others, the toughest part is now to make her own way. If she perfectly manages to do it in certain markets such as cosmetics, she has trouble in others, like a Samsung failing to succeed beyond hardware, in software and international platforms - what Apple did with iTunes and iOS. Korea doesn't always seem to leverage as well as she should her formidable window of opportunity vis-a-vis China, who uses her as a model while catching up in the technological race.

If Korea is less exposed to speculators since she's sitting on record currency reserves, her dependence on exports persists, her middle class suffer, her growth slows down, and her short-term stimulus policies further weaken her: regarding housing, protecting constructors comes before urban planning common sense and long-term needs, and regarding household consumption, debt levels break records among OECD members

With ever sinking birth rates, some Koreans fear a Japan-style 'lost decade'. Even their legendary capacity to bounce back seems dulled, like during these never ending post-Sewol doldrums. To face the challenges of this young millenium, the Korean model must evolve, and preferably without more crises. 

The wind of change and innovation seems to be - timidly - starting to blow. The best students are not anymore following the golden path of the day (engineering, law,...), but making their own combo program by picking from the different faculties of their universities. And when they graduate, they are not anymore rushing to guaranteed chaebol careers, but ready to take risks in start-ups. If the arrival of Google Campus and other foreign players and VCs contribute to a new techno bubble, it also opened new horizons to entrepreneurs in a market previously locked by local conglomerates.

Society: can Koreans rediscover the joys of community in times of diversity?

So today, leaving the system of accepting failure is not a taboo anymore. A little bit like after the IMF Crisis of 1997-98, which came as a wake up call after a century plagued by colonization, war, and the sacrifices of development: all of a sudden, life was about more than fighting for surviving or winning more, and Korea started gearing up for leisure, family life, and culture. Seoul quickly became that city more open to its citizens and to the World, at long last a popular tourist destination.

But infrastructures can't bring all answers to the challenges of today and tomorrow. You can't pretend you can tackle upcoming demographic shocks when you boast such suicide or youth unemployment rates, when you're struggling to get mixed children accepted, when you let three hundred kids drown, or a teenager join ISIS...

Humans are back at the center of the society, and the priority goes to sharing a better life in existing living environments: instead of erasing a whole neighborhood to build a New Town, authorities involve populations in micro urban regeneration projects, and instead of adding lifesavers to Suicide Bridge, they try to revive inter-generational dialogue. Korea invests massively in human resources and pedagogy to prepare for the demographic boom of multicultural families, and for the community to give its best in times of diversity.

This can't happen overnight in a country that already struggles to promote its cultural diversity beyond extremes (e.g. gugak vs k-pop), but the political will is there, and shared across the aisle.

*

Korea is neither booming nor declining, but in transit between a model on its last legs and new, more agile dynamics. She can make it faster than her neighbors, and her small size represents as much an asset as a handicap. She can always count on her formidable ability to evolve, digest, try, customize, 'bibimize', as well as on the intensity she gives to everything she dares, for worse or better.

Stephane MOT 2015


Seoul Village 2015
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China Dependence

If XI Jinping doesn't eat himself to death, he'll be leading China well into the next decade. And as he hosted the APEC meeting, he already tried to pose as a new breed of World leader, some kind of a super-blob absorbing every disturbance:
- Airpocalypse? Suspended for the occasion. It came back with a vengeance afterwards, and Seoul got a mean whiff of it for Suneung.
- Democracy? Distant umbrella clicking sounds muffled by thick red padded walls. Even the World's supposedly ultimate Democratic leader came bruised up (a red-painted America for Obama's last Midterm Elections).
- TPP? Sorry to hear about your China-free Trans-Pacific Partnership struggle. Here's our China-led Free Trade Area of the Asia Pacific (FTAAP). And Vladimir? I'm not forgetting our Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, we'll invite Modi and India soon. Meanwhile, here's another big contract for you...
- Shinzo Abe? The Imperial Japan revivalist thought their handshake would mark a diplomatic victory for him, Xi turned it into a public humiliation (a red face as visible as the dot on the flag for Abe, once again shaming the nation).

Meanwhile, South Korea and Park Geun-hye confirmed their honeymoon with China and Xi Jinping by concluding their FTA deal, a few days after the official launch of clearinghouse services by China’s Bank of Communications branch in Seoul (November 6).

I need a pull

We got a deal

Do you think Vlad the Impaler is coming our way?

Asia Pacific leaders beamed down to the size of blue cells.

If you remember the survey recently led by the Asan Institute on "South Korean Attitudes on China" (20140703) and "South Korean Attitudes on the Korea-US Alliance and Northeast Asia" (20140424), Koreans seem to consider their growing dependence on China as ineluctable, and they don't feel so comfortable about it.

But Koreans are not so comfortable with their economic situation and gloomy demographics either, and many are ready to make a quick buck, whatever the long term consequences. 

Jeju illustrates perfectly the double-edged sword of Korea's growing dependence on China. Local authorities opened Pandora's box in February 2010 by offering F-2 visas to anyone who invests at least KRW 500 m in real estate, and the Chinese jumped in. Mind you: not just as political risk management tools or evasion tactics. As of June 2014, they owned 5.92 million sqm of land worth KRW 580.7 bn, up from 20,000 sqm worth KRW 0.4 bn in 2009. Over the same period, US citizens gained only 4% more land, and Japanese citizens even lost 2% of their total.*

This year, Jeju will welcome over 5M visitors from China. But beyond the construction of hotels and resorts, China doesn't boost local jobs or consumption**. And at this pace, the island could become a Costa del Sol - style environmental + real estate mess. Local authorities are starting to realize the unsoundness of the equation, but Korea opens other regions to similar schemes, to the risk of creating bubbles, and of sucking much needed steam out of nearby projects that are already struggling.

Otherwise, for places like Songdo, bringing China in the equation helps fill existing towers. And speaking of Incheon: look how the city revived its Chinese heritage over the past decades, from one extreme (a community below the radar) to another (a brand new, colorful Chinatown).

In Seoul, Yeonnam-dong (the southern half of Yeonhui-dong until it joined Mapo-gu) enjoys a long history with China too, and it still shows in the architecture, even if you have to dig deeper and deeper to find one of these 'fusion hanok':

Yeonnam-dong hanok tended to have higher ceilings. Fusion architecture for people from Taiwan. (@theseoulvillage 20140815) - twitter.com/theseoulvillage/status/500156842874380288

Restaurant-wise, there are still a few great Chinese institutions in the neighborhood, but for how long? If flocks of Chinese tourists have recently started pouring in, that's to visit the new duty free shops operated by their compatriots in closed touristic circuits that obviously generate a lot of business, but not much for the local economy. Seoulites won't keep coming if they see Yeonnam-dong's charming streets packed with jay-parked tourist buses. Next thing you know, these closed circuits will include big buffets that will further degrade the neighborhood.

Don't get me wrong: of course China is a chance for Korea at all levels, I'm really happy to see two countries I love develop friendly and fruitful relations, and that's perfectly normal that a big chunk of China's touristic bonanza ends up in Chinese hands. 

I'm just worried about the pace and reach of change, and its impacts on Korea's economy, society, and politics.

Not because China's influence is bad in itself, but because massive and rapid changes could trigger anti-Chinese reactions which could not only damage the relations between both nations, but the multicultural fabric of Korea itself.

Likewise, when I mention political issues, that's not only at the national level (typically: okay for outsourcing part of  North Korea control, not okay to subscribe to the Northeast Project's 'Hanschluss' agenda): who and what will certain local authorities ultimately run for?

We're probably not at that stage yet, but I believe that Korean leaders should keep these risks in mind to work on a sustainable partnership. And that since this partnership cannot be balanced, to strengthen other partnerships in parallel.

*

See also:

• all posts related to China.
• my piece "Is Korea really the younger, smarter brother of China?" (The Korea Herald - 20111127)

Seoul Village 2014
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* "Chinese snap up real estate on Jeju" (Korea JoongAng Daily - 20141103), "Surge in Chinese investors in South Korea’s Jeju Island since 2009 may be to secure residency" (South China Morning Post - 20140903), "Chinese investment is taking over Jeju Island" (The Hankyoreh - 20141004)
** "Chinese Investment in Jeju Not Bringing Consumption, Employment to Region" (Business Korea - 20140829)

Once upon a time in the East

So Vladimir Putin eventually passed by Seoul yesterday. His truncated meeting with PARK Geun-hye culminated in a MOU where a South Korean consortium (Hyundai Merchant Marine, POSCO, Korail) shall take almost half of Russia's 70% stake in RasonKonTrans. 

POSCO and Hyundai eye the port activities, Korail the DPRK-Russia railway between Rason/Rajin and Khasan, just across Tumangang, where the Chinese enclave along the Tumen River stops, an entry point to the Russian network and Vladivostok. This move could boost the projects, but at the same time synchronize them with the Kaesong clock, as a mainly intra-Korean affair. So from a Chinese point of view, more threats and opportunities... But if Russia manages to maintain the line with both Koreas on this one, hats off!

What suprises me most here is the fact that Russia could sell its stakes in a JV with North Korea. Didn't they need their consent, or was the initial DPRK-Russia agreement signed under the influence of vodka-soju poktanju? Or was the abandon of 5.24 measures the prerequisite?

"What, me worry?" - XXth Century Autocrats

Note that Russia and the ROK also signed an agreement on visas, which won't be needed for short term visits between both nations. Excellent for tourism (and certainly a boost for the future Incheon Vegas - see "Paradise City v. Sin City"), and all forms of business (mob-wise, Russia has some catching up to do with China). Expect more menus in Russian and Chinese in the Korean Riviera - Jeju.

Seoul Village 2013
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