EXCLUSIVE-Second interview with KIM Jong-un

Three years after our groundbreaking "Exclusive interview with KIM Jong-un", we were contacted by his PR manager Kellyanne Conway during the week she was grounded by her other authoritarian client. Turned out the North Korean leader enjoyed our chat following the purge of his uncle JANG Song-thaek, and wanted a similar 'madvertorial' after removing his half-brother KIM Jong-nam.

Seoul Village: "Thanks for having me again, I hope I'll survive this interview as well".

KIM Jong-un: "It's up to you. Go ahead, make my day."

SV: "... well, I'll then start by congratulating you for your amazing foresight: three years ago, you told me you would get rid of Jong-nam, which you just did, and you envisioned the future of governmental relations with the press through your JDIZ concept."

KJU: "Right. See how Sean Spicer implements Donald Trump's new Journalist Defense Identification Zone? Now that's another YUGE wall all Americans will end up paying for."

SV: "What do you expect from the new Administration in Washington?"

KJU: "I see a 'kindread' spirit, another dangerous malignant narcissist with the potential to blow up the planet. The question is: between the two of us, who will be the first to fulfill his Nero destiny?"

SV: "Wait - your nuclear arsenal is already big enough to destroy the whole planet?"

KJU: "Do you really believe everything Don and I say? Don't you know that our propaganda arm KCNA stands for Kellyanne Conway North Korean Agency? Besides, our WMDs reach far beyond nukes. I love the smell of VX in the morning... "

SV: "I was about to get to this issue. Using Weapons of Mass Destruction in a public space in a supposedly friendly country, how is that supposed to help your push for lifting sanctions?"

KJU: "That was a surgical strike. Here, 'mass destruction' only refers to the overweightness of that ENEMY OF THE PEOPLE."

SV: "KIM Jong-nam was a journalist?"

KJU: "Like Donald, by 'enemy of the people' I mean 'anyone who can expose my personal illegitimacy'. Jong-nam not only came before me in the line of succession, but he also tried to grow even fatter than me. WON'T HAPPEN."

SV: "Are you following South Korean politics?"

KJU: "Of course we are! Vladimir and I have hacked all the candidates. BIGLY."

SV: "And who's your favorite to succeed PARK Geun-hye?"

KJU: "Even with the help of WikiLeaks, our dear LEE Jae-myung will have some problem winning in a truly democratic system: unlike America and North Korea, South Korea doesn't have an electoral college. SAD."

SV: "Looks like you'll have to cope with MOON Jae-in, because BAN Ki-moon is out, and AHN Hee-jung seems too far behind now."

KJU: "Whatever. Anyway, NOT A BAN."

SV: "Last but not least topic..."

KJU: "... CHINA!!!"

SV: "... China yes. How can you recover from their recent tightening on coal imports from North Korea?"

KJU: "No sweat! Donald and I have already started working on bringing back jobs in coal mining, as part of the NATO."

SV: "?!?"

KJU: "NATO, the North Korea - America Treaty Organization. It also includes partnerships in internment camps for migrants. GREAT DEAL."

SV: "While we're at it, how's your Make Army Great Again program doing? Do you still have Songun completely under your belt?"

KJU: "As always - the biggest bowel movement the world has ever seen!"

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China reaches high speed into North Korea... and post-Juche East Asia

KBS detailed yesterday* a high speed line to be built by China across North Korea. It would follow the Pyongui Line (Pyongyang-Dandong), and furthermore the Gyeongui Line that connected Seoul with Pyongyang.

According to KBS, the DPRK Economic Development Commission confirmed in February a December 2013 agreement that would change the whole region, even if in the short to medium term only a minority were to use the infrastructure.

If the line falls short of reaching into China and the DMZ by stopping at Sinuiju and Kaesong, it gives a clear advantage for China and its technology in post-Juche Korea. South Korea will have little choice but to connect - or to try the alternate Rason route with Russia.

Construction would last 6 years, with two waves that have not been fully detailed yet:

• 1st stretches: 80 km
• From the North: Sinuiju Station - Tongrim Station (Sinuiju-Dongnim, 40 km)
• From the South: Kaesong - Yonan (Gaesong-Yeonan, 40 km)
• 2nd stretches: 296 km
• From the North: Tongrim - Chongju - Sinanju - Pyongyang (Dongnim-Jeongju-Sinanju-Pyongyang, 147 km)
• From the South: Yonan - Haeju - Sariwon - Pyongyang (Yeonan-Haeju-Sariwon-Pyongyang, 149 km)

It also mean that Chinese executives and engineers will roam the country for a long while, including at the doorsteps of Kaesong Industrial Complex. China will operate for 30 years on a BOT basis (Build Operate Transfer), likely into post-Juche DPRK. 

Note that this agreement happened around the JANG Sung-taek purge, and that over the past few months, China also gained long term concessions to use North Korean land.

The silent "Hanschluss"* seems well under way. And this Northeast Project of a railway doesn't even need to rewrite history: it's the economy, stupid.

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*  "개성~신의주 고속철 북중 계약 체결" (KBS News 20140407) - NB: thanks Nikola "Kojects" Medimorec for the link!
** see "Game over for the 'Hanschluss' scenario?", "Re-engaging North Korea - A Four Party Talk"(on blogules: "China-North Korea : the Great Hanschluss still the base case scenario")... 

20140409 addendum (remarks and reminders):
. This KBS story has not yet been confirmed by any other media, and a MOU is by no means the final deal. We learn how long the construction would take (6 years), but not when it would start, if it does. What matters here is the nature of the concessions made by the DPRK as they (re)negociate with China.
. Note that the Shenyang-Dandong high speed section will be inaugurated in 2015 ("China to open high speed rail link to North Korean border in 2015"). Dandong and Sinuiju are separated by the Yalu River, but I don't know if, among the many new bridges planned by China between both nations, some are already planned as rail-friendly. Shenyang shall also be connected with Beijing, Harbin, and Dalian.  

North Korea Academy Award Nominees

It's awards season again, and here are the favorites for this year's Scars:

Best Actor: KIM Jong-un as "Despicable Me 3"

Best Supporting Actor: The North Korean people for "61 years a slave"

Best Actress: KIM Kyong-hui as Sue-Ellen EWING in "Who Shot J.T.?"

Best Foreign Language Film: "Marilyn RODMAN's Happy Birthday, Mr Dictator"

Best Original Score: 120 dogs in "Cloudy with a chance of meatballs 2"

Best Animated Feature: KIM Jong-un's hairdo

Best Visual Effects: Ministry of Propaganda for "Photoshopped Missiles"

Best Picture: JANG Song-taek in handcuffs

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KIM Jong-un's Movember Selfie

Now we know why JANG Song-taek was purged: he tried to shave KIM Jong-un:

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JANG Sung-taek "sledge-hammered" out (tu quoque, patrui mi?)

No textbook purge would skip the trial part. And here's how, in KCNA words*, the old "despicable human scum Jang, who was worse than a dog" ended:

"The special military tribunal of the Ministry of State Security of the DPRK confirmed that the state subversion attempted by the accused Jang with an aim to overthrow the people’s power of the DPRK by ideologically aligning himself with enemies is a crime punishable by Article 60 of the DPRK Criminal Code, vehemently condemned him as a wicked political careerist, trickster and traitor for all ages in the name of the revolution and the people and ruled that he would be sentenced to death according to it. The decision was immediately executed."

Blaming JANG for every crime except Kennedy's murder and the NY Mets' latest losing streak, KCNA nailed his coffin with the finesse of a car crusher:

"Every sentence of the decision served as sledge-hammer blow brought down by our angry service personnel and people on the head of Jang, an anti-party, counter-revolutionary factional element and despicable political careerist and trickster." (...)

JANG's execution was very much expected, and not only because KIM Jong-un spilled the beans the other day (see "Exclusive interview with KIM Jong-un"): there was no other issue for this purge, and in the 'random' interviews of 'people on the street' spread over the past few days by North Korean media, each citizen gave their own preference for the mode of execution of the abominable traitor for all ages.

Propaganda displayed two key sets of images: the official - theatrical - arrest in front of unshaken apparatchiks, and the presentation to the judge. Two soldiers have replaced the two upper-grade officers, and Judas keeps his low profile all the way:

Brass to pick up the 'traitor'...

... low rank staff to bring him to the military tribunal

No drama: the system is discarding a rotten apple at its pace, by the rule of law - or what passes for it that side of the DMZ. The system also acknowledges dissent at the top, but leaves no room for misinterpretation about how it intends to cope with it.

Adding more material to a future Scorcese-style biopic, JANG's wife KIM Kyong-hui is rumored to have okayed the purge, and KIM Jong-chul to have acted as a true brother in arms for KIM Jong-un, holding his uncle's guards with a gun. 

You'll have to wait for the next episode of "The Prisoner" to know if he's the next Number 2, and whom the giant white balloon will get next.



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* see "North Korea executes 'traitor' Jang Song-taek" (NKnews.org 20131213)

Exclusive interview with KIM Jong-un

Earlier this week, I was granted an exclusive interview with North Korean leader KIM Jong-un in one of his luxurious residences. I'll skip the details about how I landed there, but to get the exclusivity, significant money transfers were required. I also had to ship three million Choco Pie packs to the Cayman Islands, along with an undisclosed number of NBA autographs to grease top wheels.

Seoul Village: "Since I'm not coming out alive from this meeting, I might as well cut the ceremonial crap and go for a first-name basis. So thanks for accepting this interview, Jong-un."

Kim Jong-un: "I should make your death even more painful for that but actually, it's a nice break from the bootlickers' routine, so let's keep it informal. Cigar, Coke?"

SV: "No thanks, I don't smoke, and coffee will do. So you're drinking that imperialist brand?"

KJU: "I was not talking drinks - our elites are growing tired of meth, and our labs working on new lines of products (no pun intended). North Korea must target markets with higher margins."

SV: "I see... You're starting to integrate step by step capitalist notions into the system."

KJU: "Exactly: myself, I indulge in free market all the time - I seize, and no one objects."

SV: "Certainly not JANG Sung-taek, now..."

KJU: "No one was taking me seriously, see? I detonated a frigging nuclear bomb, and all I got was a slap on the wrist - as if I were just a brat playing with firecrackers! The other day I asked China if I could visit, and they wouldn't talk to me, even after I threatened to have another nuclear test. So I discarded the old fart, and the next day they asked me if I wanted an unlimited visa."

SV: "Speaking of China, the way you humiliated your uncle in public was not very Confucian".

KJU: "But in the end, he was the one crying uncle! And you want to talk about Confucianism? From the start, this guy was impervious to the "rectification of names" - look how you Westerners CHANG Sung-taeked, JANG Seong-taeked, or JANG Sung-thaeked him depending on where the wind blew from, when you were not Chang Sŏngt'aeking in the pure McMuffin Whatever tradition."

SV: "McCune-Reischauer".

KJU: "Bless you. So I rectified his name alright. He thought he was the big boss, the one granting favors and pulling strings, but I showed them all that no one was above me, that any head could roll anytime. Read that KCNA news flash? Watched that video? Boy we performed a textbook purge to make Uncle Joe proud. I even had my Minister of Photoshop re-read 'Darkness at noon' before airbrushing the old geezer out from all the documents."

SV: "You read Koestler?"

KJU: "Nah, my nanny read me the story when I was a kid. Dad wanted me to know the ropes, and a lot of our technology transfer came from people like Uxley, Koestler, or Solzhenitsyn. Myself, I don't read books, and my favorite theoreticians are Al and Bob."

SV: "...?"

KJU: "Pacino's Scarface, de Niro's Capone. Now these guys knew how to make a splash with a purge. Straight to the point, you know, unlike them 'car accidents' - you'd be amazed to learn how much they cost us in spare parts."

What, Me Worry? - JANG Sung-taek

SV: "After the purge, you republished scores of dad-and-son pictures of the 3 generations of KIM to reassert your legitimacy. Now that you've cut a whole branch from the family tree, it's between you and your bros for the 'royal' bloodline. I presume you took care of your aunt as well."

KJU: "No sweat, man. Last year, I had KIM Kyong-hui stuffed by a taxidermist, and her husband never saw the difference. My brothers? Jong-chul's a sissy, and Jong-nam's softer than tofu. And he likes casinos - actually, the thing we wrote about JANG and casinos? I was also sending a message to Mickey Mouse: 'stay put, bro, don't take your chances, or I'll get you'. I'll get him anyway: Beijing's able to use him as a puppet 'Last Emperor', should anything happen to me."

SV: "Do you think Beijing will dump you?"

KJU: "Right now, we're talking the same language. See how hardliners tightened the screws around their last Plenum? New ADIZ, new JDIZ..."

SV: "JDIZ?"

KJU: "Journalist Defense Identification Zone: if foreign journos get too nosy, they're out of the game. Anyway, regarding North Korea, Beijing was more than happy to have one interlocutor instead of one and a half: it's already complicated for them to cope with different currents at home."

SV: "But one of the key factors of success of your dictatorship was the improbable balance of power you've been brutalizing ever since you got the job."

KJU: "Look. Politics and court intrigues have never been my thing, and long talks give me headaches. During my first meeting as the new boss, I kept expecting the five minute break, but it never came and it almost drove me crazy."

SV: "The five minute break?"

KJU: "You know, usually, when big guys meet, like in the NBA or the NFL, they cut every five minutes so you can get some popcorn or go to the johns. Here, I had to pee in my glass and to kill three people to get some attention. No, I really don't care about politics, and I'll outsource in China if needed - actually, the decision to remove uncle ST was taken during their Plenum. Military first, party first, Pyongyang first, entrepreneurs first... my job is not to make other people happy, you know? The way I see things is simpler: I decide, they execute, and sometimes I decide to execute them."

SV: "After all these purges, you're bound to face some HR challenges, and by that I mean Human Resources, not Human Rights. Do you trust your new guys?"

KJU: "I'm sick and tired of posing with a background of old garden gnomes in uniform with overgrown hats. During his first visit, Dennis Rodman didn't even notice that he'd stepped on four of them - he confused the poor guys with the garden step stones, with their round hats and all. No, I don't trust my new guys, but at least when I invite them to ski or to ride horses, they don't drop dead after two minutes."

KIM Jong-un the Mirimboro man, showing horse power.

SV: "Masikryong ski resort, Mirim horse riding club, Munsu water park... what next?"

KJU: "We count a lot on tourism to bring cash. Our infrastructures suck, but people are ready to pay a premium for the thrill of visiting a real life dictatorship. Why wait for the end of the regime to cash on dark tourism? Our next project is an extension of Camp 14, and we're considering adding public executions to our Mass Games shows."

SV: "Any plan for reunification?"

KJU: "The question of leadership remains the main issue, but yes, talks are well under way with Bashar al Assad."

SV: "Thank you, Jong-un, for this rare glimpse into your troubled mind."

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Pyongyang's Fairy Tales

North Korean military chief RI Yong-ho has just been officially removed from all official positions. He'd been placed by KIM Jong-il to facilitate the transition of power to KIM Jong-un, but that doesn't mean KIM The Third made the call.

Lately, KIM Jong-un has seemed more focused on entertainment, attending a show featuring Disney characters (without Burbank approval, of course) with a mysterious young lady rumored to be his wife.

RI Yong-ho was supposed to be suffering from illness, but I guess his main problem was to represent the "Juche line". Anyway, his removal seems to strengthen Junior's main chaperone, JANG Sung-taek, whom I strongly suspect of representing the "Beijing Line" (see "Re-engaging North Korea - A Four Party Talk").

And Beijing keeps moving its pawns around North Korea. Last week, more roads and railways were announced at the border, fueling speculation of future massive movements of troops.

Again, what I call the "Hanschluss" of Korea by China doesn't require necessarily a military invasion: the Chinese are simply showing basic strategic skills by covering, step by step, all potential entry points at all levels (politic, economic, social, cultural, historical...).
 
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KIM Jong-il passes. To KIM Jong-un. Presumably.

So as expected, KIM Jong-il died. A bit early to secure the transition with KIM Jong-un, who might be tempted to show his skills to those who doubt he's got whatever that is North Korean leaders are supposed to have.

Physically, Junior already used plastic surgery to improve his Kimilsungist looks, let's hope he won't try to sport his dad's weirdo hairdo now.

Character-wise, Jong-un is rumored to be more ill-tempered than his brothers Jong-nam and Jong-chol, respectively a Disneyland and an Eric Clapton fan. But compared to the Late Dear Leader, he's more permeated with such capitalist perversions as burgers. And it starts showing, particularly in a country where the population is maintained in a constant state of starvation.

As far as leadership is concerned, Jong-un didn't quite pass the cut last year: the young lad has been credited with the latest attack on South Korean soil but doesn't seem much of an expert, judging by the way he uses binoculars...

So we'll follow KIM Jong-il's funerals (after four weddings, Hugh can grant him that*). And eminent Pyeongyangologists will watch closely: who will keep a seat when the music stops? Isn't CHANG Sung-taek a trifle too old for musical chairs? Will Beijing-friendly people get promoted in the army**?

In South Korea, a North Korean Spring or Winter would have consequences for the 2012 elections: more tensions could become a problem for AHN Cheol-soo (commander in chief beyond cyberwars?), and boost conservatives, but not necessarily PARK Geun-hye (would Koreans vote for a woman in times of crisis, and one used to operating only behind the scenes at that?).

By the way. This week-end, LEE Myung-bak visited Japan, and devoted the bulk of his talks with Yoshihiko Noda to the issue of Japanese military sexual slavery, following Wednesday's successful demonstration (see "One Thousand Wednesdays"). But if he's consistent, the President must also reactivate the Truth and Reconciliation Commission: every country must face its own past, particularly when it expects the same from its neighbors.


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* the movie was released in 1994, the year KIM The First died

**... and the invisible 'hanschluss' continue? see "Re-engaging North Korea - A Four Party Talk", and previous posts about NK

Re-engaging North Korea - A Four Party Talk

Very interesting conference yesterday at The Plaza Hotel* : "Responding to the Consolidation of Economic Cooperation between North Korea and China" was sponsored by the Korea Finance Corporation (KoFC, the State-run investment arm), and Maeil Business Newspaper (mbn).

For its 18th edition, this North Korea Policy Forum conference became an international seminar, with China, Japan, and the USA providing keynote speakers (bonus: an opening remark - in Korean - by US Ambassador Kathleen STEPHENS, ahead of Hillary CLINTON's visit later this week). Unfortunately, neither Russia (definitely below the radar regarding the issue), nor DPRK (for obvious reasons) were represented.

This Four Party Talk was followed by a captive audience (see exhibit B**), in spite of a very dense agenda (see full program below***) which didn't leave much time for Q&A nor discussions.

What made this conference really exciting were the differences in appreciation of a definitely complex and tricky situation. And at this game, US players spoke their minds out quite freely, even if some Koreans expressed very clearly their concerns to "Mr China" a.k.a. Professor Zhu Feng, absolutely brilliant in his good cop routine : what engagement ? we're not engaged to North Korea, just good neighbors tired of your family affairs - yes, KIM Jong-il is a bad guy and a headache for us as well, but he's your brother, and brothers don't kill each other - yes, these days, our Chinese government is rather conservative, and is pervasively locking key entry points across North Korea, but the colonization of NK by China is a ludicrous conspiration theory - yes, we're doing every day more business here, but as Pr KIM Chul noticed, our entrepreneurs are so much struggling with their local partners that most are curbing their enthusiasm...

Of course, no one mentioned the Northeast Project of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences : this was about business, with politics clearly off-limits. As if PRC-DPRK relations were apolitical. As if policies had nothing to do with politics...

Anyway, I had fun and would very much like to attend the next edition - maybe in a different order (first the historical background, then the trends, and finally the various scenarii / recos), and in a different format (e.g. three panelists max for each topic ? a lunch between two power sessions instead of a dinner after a marathon ?).

By then, chances are many more fundamental changes will have happened. If not the end of North Korea, at least a re-engagement by the South, and potentially a summit (consider the past year : Cheonan sinking and Yeonpyeong-do shelling, KIM Jong-un's promotions, Middle East uprisings, NK reviving its nuke program, Japan spicing North East Asia nuclear nightmares with a new flavor, or the day before the conference a mini-crisis over Mt Gumgang tours...).

If you're familiar with this excuse for a blog, you already know my opinion on North Korea**** :

1) Technically, the North Korean regime is already dead. It only relied on ideology and propaganda, the first lost its substance and the second its efficiency in the eyes of a growing proportion of the population. A little bit like in Iran, ailing and corrupt leaders progressively outsource the power to brutal military forces. At this stage, masses remain overwhelmed and change remains driven by State leaders, but popular rebellions are getting bolder every year, and 450,000 North Koreans have now a mobile phone (reaching far beyond the first nomenklatura circles).

2) The statu quo, or what I called the "Juche line" is not an option - change is coming. For the official end, my base case scenario evolved over time : until the late nineties I believed in an "Albania scenario" (brutal collapse, masses fleeing the country, cult of personality victims abused by con people and more or less religious cults...), but spectacular initiatives from China followed by the highly controversial Northeast Project led me to believe in the more subtle, progressive, and pervasive "Hanschluss scenario". A scenario confirmed by the ambitious developments announced over the following 2-3 years for North East China (on schedule, as we saw yesterday during the conference) : once again, whatever the motives and whatever North Korean leaders do, they also result in artificially relocating the epicenter of Koreanity on Chinese soil, and more physically than intense revisionism about Korean history (ie Goguryo). A scenario sealed by LEE Myung-bak in 2007 : South Korea's disengagement precipitated further the North towards China, leaving no dovish alternative.

3) Of course, China doesn't need to politically integrate North Korea as another province : an unofficial vassal status easy does it, and the process seems very well engaged. Reminder : the Cheonan aggression was about internal affairs, but not between both Koreas. KIM Jong-il had first to reassess his friendship with the army, and second to get some leverage ahead of the "negociations" with the PRC. Chaperoned by CHANG Sung-taek, KIM Jong-un got the nod from Beijing : KJI's brother in law later developped a parallel FDI tool, more China-friendly than the official one. He also lost a rival in a convenient car accident... No need to read fortune cookies to understand that more high ranking officials will join the collaborators to push their luck. With the Yeonpyeong island shelling, Junior assessed his own friendship with the army (nevermind those darn binoculars). Father and son completed the pledge of allegiance with a familial pilgrimage in China, where Grand Dad KIM Il-sung himself got his education, an other way of accepting the only filiation that counts : NK's Motherland is China.

4) The Great Hanschluss is not completed yet. Both China and South Korea are also experiencing ideology crisis at home between conservatism, progressivism, and agnostic pragmatism / reform. South Korea and North Korea share more common ground than survivors of a lost era. They still share an identity and a destiny. And this is not about rejecting China, but about embracing themselves.

Seoul Village 2011

* now it's simply "The Plaza", to mark the difference with the Seoul Plaza in front. That was my first visit there since the renovation (see "Seoul Plaza Hotel joins the renovation frenzy"). If the outer shell didn't change spectacularly, the inside looks much classier: an Italian designer added a European boutique hotel flavor.

** including yours truly (exhibit B: Paris, Texas alias Stephane and Steven - photo by KIM Jae-hun, Maeil Business Newspaper - "北·中 교류, 일방적 원조서 시장원리로 전환") :

*** Full program:
- Opening remarks : RYU Jae-han (President, KoFC), CHANG Dae-hwan (CEO, Maeil Business Newspaper), Kathleen STEPHENS (US Ambassador to South Korea)
- Panel One ("East Asian Regional Cooperation and North Korea-China Relations" and "China's Approach to North Korea: National Interests and Strategy") :
. moderator : HONG Yang-ho (former Vice-Minister of Unification)
. presenters : Matsuno SHUJI (Ritsumeikan University), John Delury (Yonsei University), Zhu Feng (Beijing University)
. panelists : LEE Chan-woo (Tokyo International University - NB: the first to entertain the audience with maps), Edward REED (from The Asia Foundation - NB : only had time to phrase the key questions, but it was worth the trip), LEE Hui-ok (Sungkyunkwan University), KIM Heung-kyu (Sungshin Women's University), KIM Yong-hyun (Dongguk University)
- Panel Two ("The Present and Future of Economic Cooperation Between North Korea and China" and "China's Growing Influence on North Korea and How South Korea Should Respond") :
. moderator : LEE Sang-man (Chairman, the Steering Committee for the North Korea Policy Forum)
. presenters : YOON Seung-hyun (Yanbian University, NEA Research Institute), Scott SNYDER (Center for US-Korea Policy), PARK Gun-il (Chinese Academy of Social Sciences)
. panelists : OH Seung-ryul (Hankuk University of Foreign Studies - NB: the first to mention the obvious limits of official statistics, which capture only part of exchanges between DPRK and PRC), KIM Chul (Liaoning Academy of Social Sciences), CHEONG Seong-chang (Sejong Institute), CHU Suk-yong (KoFC - Ministry of Unification), KIM Se-hyung (Chief Editor, Maeil Business Newspaper)
**** see previous posts on NK, and in particular the focus on the "Great Hanschluss" ("Great Wall of China - Anschlussing Korea (continued)" - also on blogules in English "a greater wall of china - bonus, korea inside (the great hanschluss)" and in French "La Grande Muraille de Chine à l'assaut de la Corée (l'ultime Hanschluss)")

After the Cheonan Tragedy : the Juche, Sunshine, or China Line ?

I've been often asked what I thought about the sinking of Cheonan, a South Korean navy ship, presumably by a North Korean torpedo.

The Cheonan tragedy logically raised the issue of succession wars around the ailing KIM Jong-il, who himself played similar nasty tricks to secure his daddy's job (back then, a commercial plane destroyed).

Actually, I mostly consider it as collateral damage from internal tensions within North Korea, between the usual 3 main local lobbies, and particularly the first two :
- what I call the "Juche Line" : die-hard partisans of independence from China, Russia, and of course Western powers starting with the "puppet regimes" down South. From KIM Il-sung to KIM Jong-il, the path has narrowed to a dead end and the position is absolutely not sustainable. The "strategy" or lack of can be summed up as "tricks and treats" : show me the money / dough / rice or else...
- the "China Line" : collaborators for whom the only sustainable way for NK regime is to sell the country to China, play their infamous Northeastern Project, accept their Hanschluss (see for instance "Great Wall of China - Anschlussing Korea (continued)")
- the (shrinking) "Sunshine Line" : "doves" (or the closest breed you can find that side of the DMZ) for whom the best case scenario would be a reunification with the South in the long term, with small and careful steps on the way, and a progressive evolution of NK politics, economics, and society.

Over the past few years, the change has been spectacular : the LEE Myung-bak government put an end to the Sunshine Policy, putting Jucheists off balance, but precipitating North Korea altogether into the arms of Beijing.

The Cheonan incident confirmed the trend, with very significant changes :
- new tone in Beijing, new vocabulary : a cold reception for KIM Jong-il, and a way of presenting North Korean issues as internal affairs. De facto, North Korea is now considered as a part of China, its rulers must report to Beijing, Beijing is legitimate for everything regarding national politics and security.
- tighter economic ties have been knotted between Beijing and Pyeongyang to compensate for the ones severed with the South.
- the trip of CHANG Sung-taek and KIM Jong-un one year ago in China was obviously very profitable for Beijing : KIM Jong-il's brother in law and son apparently joined the "China Line", isolating more than ever the ailing dictator. CHANG lost a rival in a convenient car accident and created an alternate FDI agency visibly very pro-China, and the now official heir apparent seems to be willing to play the role the big neighbor expected him to play : a DENG Xiaoping-like reformer moving the country (sorry : "the region") closer to "motherland" China.

Meanwhile, in the South, ultra-conservatives fuel mutual hatred on which they thrive, misusing the 60th anniversary of the war and the 100th anniversary of the Japanese rule to actually undermine the nation and help their counterparts in China and Japan. Uncle Sam ? The US want "no drama" in the area, and some would almost be glad to leave it up to China instead of risking more commercial skirmishes. The US-SK joint navy operations, initially planned in the Yellow Sea, have been diplomatically moved to the other side of the peninsula. Gates and Clinton are to visit the DMZ today.

Sadly, the Cheonan tragedy is about North Korean internal politics or, as seen from China, Chinese internal politics.

I don't think now is the time to reactivate the Sunshine Policy as it was, but severing the few positive links was definitely an ideal gift to China.

Seoul Village 2010

KIM Jong-nam, Beijing's puppet ?

Persistent rumors* have Kim Jong-il's eldest son, nowadays in Macau, defect to China.

This wouldn't come as a surprise : Kim Jong-nam, a compulsive gambler, knows perfectly where the odds for him not only to survive**, but to lead North Korea would be the highest.

Daddy officially picked Jong-nam's younger brother Kim Jong-un as his successor, and China literally enrages at this official declaration of independence*** : Kim Jong-nam could become Beijing's ideal puppet to prepare a coup against the ageing leader or rather his younger son.

Kim Il-sung's and Kim Jong-il's blood runs through Kim Jong-nam's veins, which could grant him legitimacy to rule. Beijing could try to discredit the Pyeongyang regime and host a "resistance" movement home. After all, the Provisional Government of the Republic of Korea was in exile in Shanghai.

But here, you would expect some location more consistent with the infamous Northeastern Project : according to this official revisionist propaganda, such a puppet resistance government would not be in exile but reside in the Chinese part of Korea, because Korea could only reunite as a Chinese province****.

Not The Last Emperor, but the first governor.


* and the Shankei Shimbun (May 1, 2009 edition), mentioning sometimes inebriated phone conversations between Kim Jong-nam and Kim Jong-il's sister, Kim Kyung-hee. The rehabilitation of her husband Chang Sung-taek by Pyeongyang could further isolate Kim Jong-nam.

** rumor has also it that Kim Jong-nam, confused with another man, escaped from an abduction attempt

*** see on blogules V.F. "Kim Jong-Un Deux Trois" (20090602)

**** see "the great Hanschluss"

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20090617 update : in an informal interview (NHK), Kim Jong-nam played a very low profile, distancing himself from politics and confirming his little brother must have received the paternal benediction. Time for appeasement from Pyeongyang as well : Kim Jong-eun paid a visit to Hu Jintao. Rattle can only last for a limited period of time when pressure mounts from everywhere... Rumor has it the attempted assassination of Jong-nam originated from Jong-il's sister, and that China prevented it... Ever wondered why dramas were so popular here ?