It's the democracy, stupid

So Japan is in Recession, and Shinzo Abe is expected to call for snap elections to be held mid December, giving Japan a chance to avoid the biggest R: the Restoration of Imperial Japan. For that, beyond Abe, the country must remove from power Nippon Kaigi, the extremist lobby that controls its political system*. Is that possible?

*

1) Are Abenomics at last meeting reality?

From the start, I wrote on this excuse for a blog that Abenomics were just a non-sustainable smokescreen to bribe the population at their own cost, the time for Abe to fulfill his main agenda: AbeIGNomics**. Tax hikes were supposed to make for the further deterioration of the Japanese deficit, but Abe didn't have the time to implement the second wave. Now he's kicking the can down the road, and pledging that he won't raise taxes because he can't win the vote otherwise.

More than ever, the equation can't work. Anyway, economy's never been the aim of Abe's game. But he certainly doesn't want to lose for the second time his PM seat because of the economy and money scandals involving members of his cabinet. Can he scam voters once more with the same tale?


2) Can Abe's pseudo-diplomatic offensive pay?

Ahead of the APEC and G20 meetings, Abe appeared in an international TV campaign promoting the image of Japan as a peaceful nation helping others, and I almost choke each time I see the ad with this impostor shamelessly piggybacking on a NGO's noble deeds... he who pushes so hard for the re-militarization of Japan and the revision of its peaceful constitution! he who maintains that the Imperial army never waged any war of aggression, never committed any war crime!

Shinzo Abe already started his campaign. On international TV. With government money (Japan sharing campaign)! Posing as a peacemaker! #AbeIGNomics - 20141113 twitter.com/theseoulvillage/status/532548828126146561

Shinzo Abe badly needed to raise his international profile ahead of the elections, and he seems to have bagged a trilateral meeting hosted by Japan for next year. I wouldn't be surprised if we heard later that he had given some guarantees to Xi Jinping or Park Geun-hye, something like I won't anymore visit Yasukuni as a Prime Minister. A small price to pay for a man who's already pledged not to attack the Kono statement before going back at it.


3) With or without Abe as PM, will Nippon Kaigi be confirmed as the de facto ruler of Japan?

Abe didn't change. Never did, never will. He'll try whatever it takes to remain at the helm of the nation to pursue his goal of destroying peaceful, post-war Japan. And he wouldn't want to be sidelined by his own majority, and to see the LDP push another candidate. Take Koizumi's former Finance Minister Sadakazu Tanigaki, for instance: that political weasel already proved that he could used leverage Abe's outrageous traits to position himself as a more consensual player (he stopped supporting Yasukuni visits when it helped him gain momentum within the party, then returned to it when it was all the rage). Of course, like most contenders, Tanigaki is tied to Nippon Kaigi... 

Fresh faces keep emerging in a lobby that lost at least 3 old timers over the past few months (Abe advisor Hisahiko Okazaki, the economist Yasuhiko Oishi, and the ultimate die-hard Imperial Japan soldier Hiroo Onoda).


In less than one month, Japan is unlikely to purge its political system from Nippon Kaigi, but if it could make it lose its majority at the Diet (289 of all 480 lawmakers these days), that could be a start, and a positive signal.

A contrario, a confirmation of Abe and his Nippon Kaigi friends would further weaken Japan's endangered democracy.

For the moment, revisionism keeps permeating the society at large: a recent Jiji Press poll showed that already 45% of the Japanese want the Kono Statement about Imperial Japan sexual slavery system reviewed***.

And Abe keeps making the 'best' of his tenure by trying to undermine the nation at all levels, most recently by allowing his government, expert in historical revisionism, to decide which documents to classify as state secrets, and to crucify leakers****.

*

In any case, Japan is deciding its own future, even when it refuses to decide (See "Saving Japan - Let's fall the Indecision Tree"):

Saving Japan - Let's fall the Indecision Tree

And for those of us who refuse to see this beautiful nation (self)destroy, let's remember to always stand for Japan. Never against it, only against its enemies from within:

#YesToJapanNoToNipponKaigi

Seoul Village 2014
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* see "Nippon Kaigi and friends exposed, at last", "'Comfort Women': No Resolution Without Resoluteness. From Everyone, Please".
** see all posts related to Shinzo Abe.
*** even if that embryo of nano-apology only refers to former sex slaves as the euphemistic 'comfort women' label ("45% of Japanese want ‘comfort women’ statement reviewed, survey by Jiji Press suggests" - The Japan Times 20141114)
**** "Prosecutors to be tapped for secrecy panel, in hopes of mollifying law’s opponents" (The Japan Times 20141116)

China Dependence

If XI Jinping doesn't eat himself to death, he'll be leading China well into the next decade. And as he hosted the APEC meeting, he already tried to pose as a new breed of World leader, some kind of a super-blob absorbing every disturbance:
- Airpocalypse? Suspended for the occasion. It came back with a vengeance afterwards, and Seoul got a mean whiff of it for Suneung.
- Democracy? Distant umbrella clicking sounds muffled by thick red padded walls. Even the World's supposedly ultimate Democratic leader came bruised up (a red-painted America for Obama's last Midterm Elections).
- TPP? Sorry to hear about your China-free Trans-Pacific Partnership struggle. Here's our China-led Free Trade Area of the Asia Pacific (FTAAP). And Vladimir? I'm not forgetting our Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, we'll invite Modi and India soon. Meanwhile, here's another big contract for you...
- Shinzo Abe? The Imperial Japan revivalist thought their handshake would mark a diplomatic victory for him, Xi turned it into a public humiliation (a red face as visible as the dot on the flag for Abe, once again shaming the nation).

Meanwhile, South Korea and Park Geun-hye confirmed their honeymoon with China and Xi Jinping by concluding their FTA deal, a few days after the official launch of clearinghouse services by China’s Bank of Communications branch in Seoul (November 6).

I need a pull

We got a deal

Do you think Vlad the Impaler is coming our way?

Asia Pacific leaders beamed down to the size of blue cells.

If you remember the survey recently led by the Asan Institute on "South Korean Attitudes on China" (20140703) and "South Korean Attitudes on the Korea-US Alliance and Northeast Asia" (20140424), Koreans seem to consider their growing dependence on China as ineluctable, and they don't feel so comfortable about it.

But Koreans are not so comfortable with their economic situation and gloomy demographics either, and many are ready to make a quick buck, whatever the long term consequences. 

Jeju illustrates perfectly the double-edged sword of Korea's growing dependence on China. Local authorities opened Pandora's box in February 2010 by offering F-2 visas to anyone who invests at least KRW 500 m in real estate, and the Chinese jumped in. Mind you: not just as political risk management tools or evasion tactics. As of June 2014, they owned 5.92 million sqm of land worth KRW 580.7 bn, up from 20,000 sqm worth KRW 0.4 bn in 2009. Over the same period, US citizens gained only 4% more land, and Japanese citizens even lost 2% of their total.*

This year, Jeju will welcome over 5M visitors from China. But beyond the construction of hotels and resorts, China doesn't boost local jobs or consumption**. And at this pace, the island could become a Costa del Sol - style environmental + real estate mess. Local authorities are starting to realize the unsoundness of the equation, but Korea opens other regions to similar schemes, to the risk of creating bubbles, and of sucking much needed steam out of nearby projects that are already struggling.

Otherwise, for places like Songdo, bringing China in the equation helps fill existing towers. And speaking of Incheon: look how the city revived its Chinese heritage over the past decades, from one extreme (a community below the radar) to another (a brand new, colorful Chinatown).

In Seoul, Yeonnam-dong (the southern half of Yeonhui-dong until it joined Mapo-gu) enjoys a long history with China too, and it still shows in the architecture, even if you have to dig deeper and deeper to find one of these 'fusion hanok':

Yeonnam-dong hanok tended to have higher ceilings. Fusion architecture for people from Taiwan. (@theseoulvillage 20140815) - twitter.com/theseoulvillage/status/500156842874380288

Restaurant-wise, there are still a few great Chinese institutions in the neighborhood, but for how long? If flocks of Chinese tourists have recently started pouring in, that's to visit the new duty free shops operated by their compatriots in closed touristic circuits that obviously generate a lot of business, but not much for the local economy. Seoulites won't keep coming if they see Yeonnam-dong's charming streets packed with jay-parked tourist buses. Next thing you know, these closed circuits will include big buffets that will further degrade the neighborhood.

Don't get me wrong: of course China is a chance for Korea at all levels, I'm really happy to see two countries I love develop friendly and fruitful relations, and that's perfectly normal that a big chunk of China's touristic bonanza ends up in Chinese hands. 

I'm just worried about the pace and reach of change, and its impacts on Korea's economy, society, and politics.

Not because China's influence is bad in itself, but because massive and rapid changes could trigger anti-Chinese reactions which could not only damage the relations between both nations, but the multicultural fabric of Korea itself.

Likewise, when I mention political issues, that's not only at the national level (typically: okay for outsourcing part of  North Korea control, not okay to subscribe to the Northeast Project's 'Hanschluss' agenda): who and what will certain local authorities ultimately run for?

We're probably not at that stage yet, but I believe that Korean leaders should keep these risks in mind to work on a sustainable partnership. And that since this partnership cannot be balanced, to strengthen other partnerships in parallel.

*

See also:

• all posts related to China.
• my piece "Is Korea really the younger, smarter brother of China?" (The Korea Herald - 20111127)

Seoul Village 2014
Welcome to our Korean Errlines! Follow Seoul Village on Facebook and Twitter

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.
* "Chinese snap up real estate on Jeju" (Korea JoongAng Daily - 20141103), "Surge in Chinese investors in South Korea’s Jeju Island since 2009 may be to secure residency" (South China Morning Post - 20140903), "Chinese investment is taking over Jeju Island" (The Hankyoreh - 20141004)
** "Chinese Investment in Jeju Not Bringing Consumption, Employment to Region" (Business Korea - 20140829)