Weapons of Mass Distraction

If Robert Kelly's adorable kids crashed his BBC interview, their cute videobombing provided a welcomed distraction from KIM Jong-un's WMDs, Cheon Wa Dae's implosion, or China's nuclear reaction to THAAD.

Korea definitely needs to embrace this joyful, multicultural youth coming in peace, but, like Kelly, we also need to keep our eye on the ball. Or rather on juggling balls that tend to multiply and to become highly explosive.

On one hand, many uncertainties seem to have been lifted: PARK Geun-hye's impeachment succeeded brilliantly, she meets her prosecutors tomorrow, a date has been set for the presidential election, conservatives all but gave up 2017*, and MOON Jae-in doesn't appear to lose ground in the polls (this morning RealMeter added 1.5 pts to both him and his main rival AHN Hee-jung, but fifty days before May 9, and even less before party primaries, the latter lags 21 points behind the former).

On the other hand, Korea's beautiful political moment and national unity receded as the old political barnum returned. Pro-PARK factions hijacked the Taegukgi, PARK herself formed a shadow cabinet of fellow hardcore deniers, and MOON tried to revive the Sewol's instrumentalization by tying it to the impeachment the very day the Constitutional Court explicitely confirmed that April 16 couldn't be used to justify PGH's eviction. Still struggling to pass for a uniter, the front runner has yet to reassure many voters about his positions regarding North Korea and national security.

BTW if the Trump Administration were clear enough to say that strategic patience was BAD and OVER, they have yet to say what they will replace it with. I guess something between Elusivarus Rex (Rex Tillerson's No Presser Mode), and Twitterrence (Trump's Twitter Deterrence). 

Anyway, South Korea's subtle balancing act between the US and China has been shaken and stirred by the THAAD crisis, whose impacts went from political to economic to social: in Korean minds, the favorability of China has now fallen even behind Japan's (see this excellent report from the Asan Institute: "Changing Tides: THAAD and Shifting Korean Public Opinion toward the United States and China"). China's retaliation came on top of an already weakened economy, which may face further shocks following the Fed's rate hikes (e.g. something's gotta give with this massive household debt).

As questions of survival reclaim the top of our agendas, can the great promises of last Fall survive this Spring? That hope for a reunited society, that hope for a deep and sound debate about the constitution, that hope for an eradication of corruption, that hope for a 'mani pulite' operation liberating justice from WOO Byung-woo and his friends...?


Yes let's keep our eye on the ball, and yes let's also let the kids roll in. In the end, it's all about them.


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* HWANG Kyo-ahn withdrew his candidacy (... and HONG Seok-hyeon from JoongAng Ilbo - could he be considering a bid in 2022?) 

AHN Hee-jung joins the fray

Frankly, there is no way out of impeachment for PARK Geun-hye - the sole story about that blacklist of artists should suffice to seal her fate. Now she's just trying to delay the process, wishing her judges were about to retire. 

Meanwhile, her partner in crime CHOI Soon-sil keeps denying the obvious, and pushing arrogance to new levels. The way she counterattacked her prosecutors by demanding proofs and testimonies, you'd believe she knows in which Thai river she had KO Young-tae's remains fed to the fishes.

"Dirty sleep", an art work featured in a special 'freedom of expression' exhibition at the National Assembly hall: PARK Geun-hye sleeps as the Sewol sinks, and CHOI Soon-sil provides syringes - 20170123 Chosun Ilbo "국회 의원회관에 '나체 상태의 박근혜 대통령' 그림 논란"

Again, let's hope justice will prevail (see "Of power vacua and excesses").

Now the question remains who's next in South Korea's doomest office (after acting prez HWANG Kyo-ahn), and in that regard, recent days have brought interesting developments: BAN Ki-moon has totally screwed up his return to Korea, LEE Jae-myung confirmed his candidacy, and AHN Hee-jung pulled out a perfect launch. Can MOON Jae-in maintain his lead until late Spring?

To sum it up: 

1) Korea needs a uniting, moderate, ideology-free leader to leverage on the formidable grassroot movement that saw 96% of the population stand up for democracy.

2) The political landscape is ultra-fragmented: Saenuri completely imploded around pro/anti-Park lines, and rivalries mar the opposition.

3) Two heavyweights lead in the polls, but fail to convince a majority. 

4) MOON Jae-in struggles to pass for a uniter after having embodied systematic opposition for years, and bullied AHN Cheol-soo out of the 2012 race. He's in Hillary's position: the best chance to win on paper, but a jaded politician, and a disliked favorite.

5) BAN Ki-moon had the resume: the UN international aura, ROH Moo-hyun-friendly enough to please the Left, conservative and reform-averse enough to please the Right, a soft spoken gentleman old enough to play the role of the benevolent patriarch of the nation..., but if he shined as a minister, BAN never proved his prowess in the driver's seat, and from the start he let his campaign be hijacked by a Dark Side of the Force desperate to find a leader following PGH's collapse. He had the ideal profile to reach from the center across the aisles, but it will be hard for him to claim the 96% after a week where he distinguished himself by calling PARK Geun-hye and meeting LEE Myung-bak.

6) If LEE Jae-myung gained momentum during the mass demonstrations, his controversial, Trump-style temperament undermines his candidacy. Should he leave the leading trio by the end of next month, his chances would be very slim.

7) It seems that whatever PARK Won-soon says or does, he can't rise in the polls. The Seoul mayor positioned himself as a reformer and an innovator, and counts on the inauguration of Seoul Station 7017 to feed the buzz, but his craze for media attention, very efficient at the local and international levels, tends to backfire at the national level.

8) The third man could turn out to be a different AHN than last time: AHN Cheol-soo did build a political base, but the democratic tsunami reshuffled the whole deck, and ACS is not as inspiring as he initially looked. AHN Hee-jung starts apparently without any base, but he's perfectly leveraging that freedom, and judging by its PR campaign and his no-nonsense, anti-populist positions, he can claim both conservatives and reformers. A convincing interview with Chosun Ilbo, followed by a praising editorial from Maeil Business Newspaper the day before he announced, and he put himself at the center of the map, making LEE Jae-myung's announcement almost inaudible.

As MOON Jae-in flies, BAN Ki-moon stagnates, and the LEE Jae-myung bubble deflates, AHN Hee-jung gains positive reviews for his Chosun interview - 20170122 - twitter.com/theseoulvillage/status/822980039536820224)

If by end of February, polls show AHN Hee-jung closer to - or even part of - the top 3, he stands a clear chance. The weeks to come will clearly test MOON's grip on the lead, and BAN's capacity to reset his campaign.


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