Mayor Park to ground control

Seoul Mayor PARK Won-soon was found dead right after midnight last night in what appears to be a suicide triggered by accusations of sexual assaults. His body was found with the help of police dogs in a park near Sukjeongmun, in the Seongbuk-gu where he resided. The city of Seoul will hold mayoral funerals, and he shall rest in peace on Monday.

Suicide is always a tragedy, and I feel sorry for PARK, but I feel even more sorry for victims who won't get justice, since his death means all cases are now dropped. So it's up to the medias to investigate, or to the victims to come forward if they find enough courage to do so without the full framework of justice.
 
As all mayors, PARK leaves a mixed legacy, and as I did with his predecessors / as I will try to do with his successors, I didn't spare him with praise or criticism. If I welcomed PARK's late conversion to urbanism, and focus on urban regeneration, I disliked his doubletalk in favor of wealthy speculators and neighborhoods (not only in Gangnam and Yongsan), or his recent u-turn to reprioritize high-rise approaches. As I pointed out in the past, where Seoul mayors tend to boast 'hardware' realizations (Cheonggyecheon for LEE Myung-bak, Gwanghwamun Square for OH Se-hoon, Seoullo 7017 for PARK Won-soon), their main achievements may be on a more 'software' side: dedicated bus lanes for LEE, rebalancing budgets from wealthy areas to (re)vitalize the deprived ones for OH, and opening the big data flows for PARK (a sharing approach he prolonged during this coronavirus pandemic).

When I heard that Seoul mayor was missing, as the drama unfolded live on TV, as the rumor mill started to grind, I wondered like everyone what was happening. PARK Won-soon flying away for a scandal, that didn't surprise me at all. But PARK Won-soon perpetrating sordid sex abuses, or committing suicide, I would never have expected that.

While guessing which scandal he was trying to escape, I imagined all potential threads including the wildest conspiracy theories, from another Yonsei story (following the scandal surrounding his son, the prime estate sold by the city to the university for a song...) to a brush with Seoul underworld (suspiciously, seedy businesses were twice overly protected during the pandemic). Yet I would never have pictured him as a sexual predator. As for his disappearance, until the end I thought he planned a Houdini escape, his trek to the mountain a red herring cleverly mirroring ROH Moo-hyun's last moments. I truly believed that PARK Won-soon was too imbued with himself to kill himself. I was totally wrong, and that made me think again about what I thought I knew of the man.

The first time I remember meeting him was in 2009, with other members of the Truth and Reconciliation Commission when they were digging in directions that - to say the least - didn't always make ultra-conservatives very happy. The voices of victims were rising after decades of silence, and not long afterwards, LEE Myung-bak would torpedo the institution, derailing dynamics badly needed for Korea to start its healing. PARK looked focused and a bit shy, probably because the discussions were in English. Anyway, very different from the flamboyant Mayor I'd meet years later in many occasions (of course I don't think he'd remember well this guy among all the faces he came across).

This populist got a lucky break in politics when OH Se-hoon shot himself in the foot, but he was great at campaining, building support from the youth, and making top down initiatives look as if they popped up from citizens.

I remember a man who obviously could not bear not being likable, not looking young (he eventually fixed those recurring complaints about receding hair). Even his irrepressible presidential ambitions, never tamed by mediocre national polls, could become touching, pathetic.

More accessible than his predecessor (a different kind of narcissist), PARK was a genial host, particularly warm with journalists, media, and bloggers. Obsessed with photo ops to the point he created a mock office in city hall, this PR junkie was regularly mocked at by the way he called camera crews ahead of his 'spontaneous', 'selfless' shows. He could be quite direct about what he expected from you (your vote, your public praise), but didn't retaliate if you didn't play the game. Well this kind of games at least... I may be speculating again, but we know insecure narcissists have dark sides.

For sure, if PARK Won-soon often defended very noble causes, he can't and shouldn't be compared to ROH Moo-hyun.

His fall rather echoes that of AHN Hee-jung, and yesterday I couldn't help but remember the 2017 images of MOON Jae-in, PARK Won-soon, and AHN Hee-jung on that Gwanghwamun podium on victory night.

PARK's scandal happens at the very moment MOON is lambasted for sending AHN, for the funerals of his mother, flowers paid with taxpayers money; at the very moment the icon who for decades composed the soundtrack of Korea's democratic movements, AHN Chi-hwan, releases 'Irony', a song criticizing harshly self-proclaimed progressives who have turned not only into conservatives for their own power, but into existential threats to the democracy they are supposed to have fought for as activists (thinking of you, CHO Kuk, YOON Mee-hyang, and even you, at the very top).

We all have our greatnesses, weaknesses, and contradictions, but there are lines not to cross, particularly when you hold power. Even if it ends up with yet another suicide, yet more impunity for sexual abuses, may this tragedy help Korean politicians be less tempted to fail as humans.

"Just a few files to sort before Christmas, and we're back to you! (with @wonsoonpark in #Seoul City Hall)

" (20131224 - twitter.com/theseoulvillage/status/415405587891884032)

"Good!" (20131224 - PWS's answer, from his former Twitter account - @wonsoonpark)

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Exclusive interview with KIM Jong-un - Season III

For the third time*, we've been granted an exclusive interview with KIM Jong-un. If you remember well, the first one followed the medieval execution of Unc' Jang, and the second the putinesque elimination of Bro Jong-nam. This time, I only witnessed North Korea's leader gruesomely murder ten bottles of XI Jinping's Maotai baiju, while we choo-chooed back to Pyongyang in his private train.

Seoul Village: "Hey, that's expensive booze. Don't you want to make them last a bit longer? Or did you get guarantees from XI for a free refill?"

KIM Jong-un: "Don't worry, that's part of the agreement we reached in Beijing: every fortnight, somewhere in the South China Sea, an Eritrean supertanker sailing under Panama flag will transfer its whole shipment to a North Korean fishing boat."

SV: "Wait. You're talking supertanker on one side, and fishing boat on the other... How will that ever fit?"

KJU: "We'll use Russian pipes for the transfer - robust stuff, Made in Rason; I collect 99%, Jinping's family 49%, Vladimir 34%, and the rest naturally trickles down through the usual DPRK black market channels. Of course, Paul Manafort gets his cut, and everybody's happy."

SV: "Sounds legit. You mentioned an agreement with China..."

KJU: "Xi."

SV: "Well that's pretty much the same now. So what's the deal?"

KJU: "Obviously, I had to pledge some sort of allegiance. The trick was to not overdo boot-licking, and to avoid as much ass-kissing as possible - believe me, considering Xi's considerable tummy, that required expert level in circumnavigation."

SV: "I see. I also see that you're circumnavigating my question as well."

KJU: "Don't test me. Remember that when I test something, even mountains can collapse... Well Xi treated me like a kid, but I got a few candies in return - our restaurants in China can operate again, for example. And if the US ever try to strike North Korea, China will step in. So when (if) I meet The Donald in May, sanctions won't bite as much as they do now, and there will be a third 800-pound gorilla in the room. When you think that just weeks ago I was totally cornered, and about to get bombed** right after Pyeongchang... now I'm safe until at least May, and under the protection of The Godfather himself..." 

Ri Sol-ju (in beige), Kim Jong-un (in Mao neck jacket), XI Jinping (in red tie-carpet-vases), Peng Liyuan (in cowhide)

SV: "I presume Xi was not happy to learn that you could meet Trump before himself."

KJU: "Now that one got me flummoxed in the first place. I never imagined that Don would accept that quickly. But then again, our meeting may never happen."

SV: "But you did confirm Xi you were committed to denuclearization, right?"

KJU: "Yup, with the usual caveat: I've always been willing to denuclearize once all the conditions are there: first the US-ROK drills stop, then the US withdraw completely from the peninsula and from Japan (I'll throw the Philippines and Guam in for good measure), then Korea reunites under my rule, and only then I give up all my nukes."

SV: "For good?"

KJU: "Sure, forever. Just like the States and Russia when they pledged to do so."

SV: "So if I get it right, you keep your job, your regime, your nukes. But you return under Beijing's wing, and you have to resist the urge to test new toys for a while."

KJU: "Bah. Anyway, testing nukes in Punggye-ri or what's left of it was getting each time trickier. Xi suggested me to ask some of my customers to test my products for me in their own most deserted wastelands."

SV: "I get the picture. And I bet Bashar has paved the way for many new potential sites. With this new diplomatic frenzy of yours, we may all start from a blank slate."

KJU: "Peace, at last."

SV: "I almost forgot. You'll meet MOON Jae-in pretty soon..."

KJU: "Who?"

SV: "MOON, the South Korean president." 

KJU: "Ah, that guy. Well I have to, haven't I? After all he's done to get me out of this mess. I guess I'll have to find him a job for after the Unification. Not the management of Moranbong, anyway - I already promised that one to the dude who was supposed to succeed him."

SV: "AHN Hee-jung? He's heading for jail, now - Mr Nice Guy turned out to be Weinstein on steroids."

KJU: "Precisely the kind of people I can trust. I also have a job in mind for John Bolton when this is all over."

SV: "Uh... Bolton's American. And not exactly a fan of yours."

KJU: "He's my next Chief of Staff. I need to recruit radical warmongers just like him. Also, people who thrive in corrupt environments, experienced ones like PARK Geun-hye or LEE Myung-bak. Zuck is already helping me source new talents."

SV: "Mark Zuckerberg?!?"

KJU: "Our JV, Kimchi Analytica, has been screening social networks for years. How do you think we selected you for our interviews? And as an expert in Weapons of Mass Disinformation, would you like to head our KCNA?"


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* see "EXCLUSIVE-Second interview with KIM Jong-un", "Exclusive interview with KIM Jong-un" - Agence Fausse Presse.
** see "Alert!"

A new MOON Jae-in?

As expected, MOON Jae-in claimed Cheong Wa Dae with a very comfortable margin even without gaining ground beyond his base, and AHN Cheol-soo failed to hold the center.

As feared, the embarrassingly extreme HONG Jun-pyo finished second, confirming how the ultra-hardcore-conservative line remains a strong political force in the country. YOO Seong-min fought with honor, but reformers need a more charismatic leader to prevail, and to save the right.

To the left, SIM Sang-jung made her case with brilliance and humor, and her moderate voice is more likely to be heard and to bring positive change in the future than the usual radical activists.

In general and except for HONG, the debate was more gentle. This could continue even further with people like AHN Hee-jung.

Now Korea truly needs to move away from polarized politics, and the new president will have to show the way, to foster innovation across politics, society, and the economy. Dialog and innovation being not MOON's forte, he will have to evolve, and to surround himself with not just the old farts he promised jobs in the administration.

Here's how I concluded a piece I wrote last week for Asialyst ("Corée du Sud : la politique reprend ses vieilles habitudes"):

"The winner of the election will be judged by his capacity to revive the economy and to defend the nation in front of rather peculiar characters (Kim Jong-un, Xi Jinping, Shinzo Abe, Donald Trump, Vladimir Poutine…), but also and mostly to reunify South Korea with itself by leveraging last Winter's formidable democratic movement.

If elected, Moon will have to become the uniter he has yet to prove he can be. This majority-less assembly seems a rather sound base to prevent the usual pendulum swings. After all, this assembly already proved it could successfully work in a president-free nation, reaching consensuses on issues as tricky as budget or the impeachment process.

Which brings us back to the core debate initiated during the 'Miracle of The Han People': we can't wait until the 2020 parlementary elections to advance on key issues demanding cool heads, like the revision of the Constitution, or the eradication of corruption in the judiciary system.

It would also be a good opportunity to push an idea that is not yet on the agenda, but would considerably strenghten democracy and depollute this great quinquennal show: switching to a two-round presidential election."

Last time I saw MOON on Gwanghwamun Square was under sadder circumstances (ROH Moo-hyun funeral in 2009 - "A Yellow Sea for Roh Moo-hyun")

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All options on the table

Many Korean correspondents in DC have recently shared their highest fears ever over risks of war in the Peninsula, and we can only hope that Donald TRUMP's new envoy to Korea, USS Carl Vinson, won't have to grow more talkative than 'Elusivarus Rex' Rex TILLERSON...

All options are on the table

On one hand, it's scary enough to see this short-fused POTUS pull out a new deadly toy in the region just days after striking Syria...

'The Hustler? XI Jinping not comfortable with Trump's 8 ball Syria-North Korea combo (KIM Jong-un unhappy with Syria strikes) - Heng cartoon' (20170410 - twitter.com/theseoulvillage/status/851233905646555140)

... On the other hand, the US can't find comfort in the fact that the DPRK's ICBMs needs some more time to reach its mainland: KIM Jong-un proved that he could already strike with precision all the US bases in the region, giving its forces a decisive head start when the gimchi hits the fan.

And I feel just a bit less worried now that Steve BANNON will get fewer chances to chime in where it matters most:

Steve BANNON can't always control himself. Please don't let him walk again.

Of course, all this happens less than a month before the elections in South Korea, where victory seems granted to either the untested AHN Cheol-soo, or the divisive MOON Jae-in. Can the former resist G2 pressure (Trump-Xi)? Can the latter be harder than tofu against KJU?

For the moment, even if all options are on the table here as well, MOON confirms that he can't build trust beyond his own base, and that his easiest path to victory lies in the emergence of small candidates dividing the votes. 

AHN Hee-jung trapped in unwinnable primaries and refocusing on 2022, and conservatives failing to find a champion, Cheol-soo quickly and effortlessly gathered across the aisle the Anyone-But-Moon front, and toughened up enough to show that this time he will go all the way. Recent polls give him the lead in both 5 and 6 candidates scenarii:

'For the first time, a poll with 6 candidates shows AHN Cheol-soo ahead of MOON Jae-in (Chosun Ilbo). Later still can't reach beyond own base' (20170409 - twitter.com/theseoulvillage/status/851043736951824384)
'Yonhap-KBS poll with 5 candidates confirms AHN Cheol-soo's lead over MOON Jae-in. <20 a="" href="http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/news/2017/04/09/0200000000AEN20170409003900315.html" no="" regional="" rifts="" target="_blank" undecided="">english.yonhapnews.co.kr/news/2017/04/09/0200000000AEN20170409003900315.html' (20170410 - twitter.com/theseoulvillage/status/851227886631624704)

For the moment, HONG Jun-pyo, SIM Sang-jung, and YOO Seong-min don't syphon many votes out of the AHN wave. As he focuses on attacking MOON, KIM Chong-in could become more audible, but he doesn't represent the future either.

Interesting to see the latest poll* in detail:
- the traditional age rifts diminish (the younger generation still favor MOON, but less than before, and 'only' until 50)
- the traditional regional rifts seems less relevant (AHN leads in Jeolla-do - where he claimed many seats - and Gwangju as well as in conservative strongholds - Daegu and Gyeongsang-do rally behind him)
- fewer than 20% remain undecided

It will be more about character and issues than ideology. So get ready for April surprises.

A positive April surprise would be the arrest of WOO Byung-woo. Korean justice needs to be purged from its enemies from within, but compromission is so pervasive that many could fall, and one can wonder if judges and prosecutors will have the courage to open Pandora's box. 

Still better than a nuclear explosion. And as the myth goes, hope appears only after all evils have been released from the box. 

But as the percentage of judges who keep heading for the same friendly structures after retirement tells us, the capacity to achieve total success looks like the ultimate myth.


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* "Ahn beats Moon for first time in hypothetical five-way race: poll" (Yonhap News 20170410)

EXCLUSIVE-Second interview with KIM Jong-un

Three years after our groundbreaking "Exclusive interview with KIM Jong-un", we were contacted by his PR manager Kellyanne Conway during the week she was grounded by her other authoritarian client. Turned out the North Korean leader enjoyed our chat following the purge of his uncle JANG Song-thaek, and wanted a similar 'madvertorial' after removing his half-brother KIM Jong-nam.

Seoul Village: "Thanks for having me again, I hope I'll survive this interview as well".

KIM Jong-un: "It's up to you. Go ahead, make my day."

SV: "... well, I'll then start by congratulating you for your amazing foresight: three years ago, you told me you would get rid of Jong-nam, which you just did, and you envisioned the future of governmental relations with the press through your JDIZ concept."

KJU: "Right. See how Sean Spicer implements Donald Trump's new Journalist Defense Identification Zone? Now that's another YUGE wall all Americans will end up paying for."

SV: "What do you expect from the new Administration in Washington?"

KJU: "I see a 'kindread' spirit, another dangerous malignant narcissist with the potential to blow up the planet. The question is: between the two of us, who will be the first to fulfill his Nero destiny?"

SV: "Wait - your nuclear arsenal is already big enough to destroy the whole planet?"

KJU: "Do you really believe everything Don and I say? Don't you know that our propaganda arm KCNA stands for Kellyanne Conway North Korean Agency? Besides, our WMDs reach far beyond nukes. I love the smell of VX in the morning... "

SV: "I was about to get to this issue. Using Weapons of Mass Destruction in a public space in a supposedly friendly country, how is that supposed to help your push for lifting sanctions?"

KJU: "That was a surgical strike. Here, 'mass destruction' only refers to the overweightness of that ENEMY OF THE PEOPLE."

SV: "KIM Jong-nam was a journalist?"

KJU: "Like Donald, by 'enemy of the people' I mean 'anyone who can expose my personal illegitimacy'. Jong-nam not only came before me in the line of succession, but he also tried to grow even fatter than me. WON'T HAPPEN."

SV: "Are you following South Korean politics?"

KJU: "Of course we are! Vladimir and I have hacked all the candidates. BIGLY."

SV: "And who's your favorite to succeed PARK Geun-hye?"

KJU: "Even with the help of WikiLeaks, our dear LEE Jae-myung will have some problem winning in a truly democratic system: unlike America and North Korea, South Korea doesn't have an electoral college. SAD."

SV: "Looks like you'll have to cope with MOON Jae-in, because BAN Ki-moon is out, and AHN Hee-jung seems too far behind now."

KJU: "Whatever. Anyway, NOT A BAN."

SV: "Last but not least topic..."

KJU: "... CHINA!!!"

SV: "... China yes. How can you recover from their recent tightening on coal imports from North Korea?"

KJU: "No sweat! Donald and I have already started working on bringing back jobs in coal mining, as part of the NATO."

SV: "?!?"

KJU: "NATO, the North Korea - America Treaty Organization. It also includes partnerships in internment camps for migrants. GREAT DEAL."

SV: "While we're at it, how's your Make Army Great Again program doing? Do you still have Songun completely under your belt?"

KJU: "As always - the biggest bowel movement the world has ever seen!"

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AHN Hee-jung joins the fray

Frankly, there is no way out of impeachment for PARK Geun-hye - the sole story about that blacklist of artists should suffice to seal her fate. Now she's just trying to delay the process, wishing her judges were about to retire. 

Meanwhile, her partner in crime CHOI Soon-sil keeps denying the obvious, and pushing arrogance to new levels. The way she counterattacked her prosecutors by demanding proofs and testimonies, you'd believe she knows in which Thai river she had KO Young-tae's remains fed to the fishes.

"Dirty sleep", an art work featured in a special 'freedom of expression' exhibition at the National Assembly hall: PARK Geun-hye sleeps as the Sewol sinks, and CHOI Soon-sil provides syringes - 20170123 Chosun Ilbo "국회 의원회관에 '나체 상태의 박근혜 대통령' 그림 논란"

Again, let's hope justice will prevail (see "Of power vacua and excesses").

Now the question remains who's next in South Korea's doomest office (after acting prez HWANG Kyo-ahn), and in that regard, recent days have brought interesting developments: BAN Ki-moon has totally screwed up his return to Korea, LEE Jae-myung confirmed his candidacy, and AHN Hee-jung pulled out a perfect launch. Can MOON Jae-in maintain his lead until late Spring?

To sum it up: 

1) Korea needs a uniting, moderate, ideology-free leader to leverage on the formidable grassroot movement that saw 96% of the population stand up for democracy.

2) The political landscape is ultra-fragmented: Saenuri completely imploded around pro/anti-Park lines, and rivalries mar the opposition.

3) Two heavyweights lead in the polls, but fail to convince a majority. 

4) MOON Jae-in struggles to pass for a uniter after having embodied systematic opposition for years, and bullied AHN Cheol-soo out of the 2012 race. He's in Hillary's position: the best chance to win on paper, but a jaded politician, and a disliked favorite.

5) BAN Ki-moon had the resume: the UN international aura, ROH Moo-hyun-friendly enough to please the Left, conservative and reform-averse enough to please the Right, a soft spoken gentleman old enough to play the role of the benevolent patriarch of the nation..., but if he shined as a minister, BAN never proved his prowess in the driver's seat, and from the start he let his campaign be hijacked by a Dark Side of the Force desperate to find a leader following PGH's collapse. He had the ideal profile to reach from the center across the aisles, but it will be hard for him to claim the 96% after a week where he distinguished himself by calling PARK Geun-hye and meeting LEE Myung-bak.

6) If LEE Jae-myung gained momentum during the mass demonstrations, his controversial, Trump-style temperament undermines his candidacy. Should he leave the leading trio by the end of next month, his chances would be very slim.

7) It seems that whatever PARK Won-soon says or does, he can't rise in the polls. The Seoul mayor positioned himself as a reformer and an innovator, and counts on the inauguration of Seoul Station 7017 to feed the buzz, but his craze for media attention, very efficient at the local and international levels, tends to backfire at the national level.

8) The third man could turn out to be a different AHN than last time: AHN Cheol-soo did build a political base, but the democratic tsunami reshuffled the whole deck, and ACS is not as inspiring as he initially looked. AHN Hee-jung starts apparently without any base, but he's perfectly leveraging that freedom, and judging by its PR campaign and his no-nonsense, anti-populist positions, he can claim both conservatives and reformers. A convincing interview with Chosun Ilbo, followed by a praising editorial from Maeil Business Newspaper the day before he announced, and he put himself at the center of the map, making LEE Jae-myung's announcement almost inaudible.

As MOON Jae-in flies, BAN Ki-moon stagnates, and the LEE Jae-myung bubble deflates, AHN Hee-jung gains positive reviews for his Chosun interview - 20170122 - twitter.com/theseoulvillage/status/822980039536820224)

If by end of February, polls show AHN Hee-jung closer to - or even part of - the top 3, he stands a clear chance. The weeks to come will clearly test MOON's grip on the lead, and BAN's capacity to reset his campaign.


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