Korea revives the project of a fourth mobile license

According to The Korea Herald (May 29), the Korean government is considering reviving the project of a fourth Mobile Network Operator license as part of a plan to stimulate the market.

Is there a need for another 4G network? Korea is well covered with LTE to LTE-A, beefed-up locally through pervasive femtocells and WiFi. And the three incumbents don't want to sit on their laurels: Korea Telecom promised 5G trials for the 2018 Pyeongchang Olympics, and SK Telecom announced a partnership with Google on augmented reality ("T-AR for Project Tango").

Is there a need for more competition? It depends on the profile of the new player, and the impacts on a M-VNO ecosystem that, at long last, is biting into a pie still dominated by SK Telecom, Korea Telecom, and LG U+.

According to the Ministry of Science, ICT and Future Planning (MSIP), Mobile Virtual Network Operators were claiming a 8.8% market share as of April 21 (up from 2.9% in June 2012), thanks to prices on average 57% cheaper than the MNOs.

But it's not as if you had one fourth player with a 8.8% market share, big enough to contest the leaders on more profitable segments. Today, Korea has 27 M-VNOs, most struggling to make their first profit, and likely to never see it. Significantly, their number of subscribers started to explode when they targeted more discount-seeking audiences (the youth, Chinese migrant workers...).

A perennial candidate for the 4th spot is actually a consortium of M-VNOs: KMI (Korea Mobile Internet) revived their candidacy in October 2013, and defending the existing M-VNO ecosystem could be a stronger argument today. In December 2011, the Korea Communications Commission not only rejected KMI's bid, but also that of IST (Internet Space Time lost the backing of Hyundai Group at a critical moment). Note that the KCC also canceled the auction for the WiBro spectrum. I explained a few months earlier ("A Kbiz MNO ? SMEs vs Korea Inc") how the attempt by the Korea Federation of Small and Medium Businesses (Kbiz) to enter the market looked more like a lobbying stunt to push WiBro.

A much bigger fish could also seek the fourth license, with more brand power. Typically, CJ Group is already a major player in telecom, IPTV, or multimedia contents. It has the money to invest on new networks (Daum Kakao or Naver would need serious backing), the customer bases to leverage, and the contents to fill the pipes..., but don't bet on price wars with fellow chaebol on the juiciest segments. 
 
A true new entrant from overseas? Global MNOs know how difficult it would be in a country where foreign majors are seldom allowed to take or maintain leading positions (see retail for example: Carrefour and Wal-Mart already gone, Tesco on the back seat). But joining a consortium, or creating one remains a rare opportunity for international platforms to push their solutions in an otherwise locked Korean market. And nowadays, the dominant platforms do not necessarily belong to telecom operators...

Anyway, expect more lobbying ahead of the government's guidelines, expected by the end of June.

• Initially published on mot-bile ("Korea's fourth license reload"). 
• See also "Daum Kakao, Google Campus... Korean platforms on steroids", other posts related to innovation in Korea.

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* "Consortium to bid for 4th mobile carrier in S. Korea" (Yonhap News - 2013/10/08)

If you ain't broke, fix it: Seoul, Welfare and Railways Deficits

I wanted to say a thing or two* about welfare and railway projects in Seoul following these two articles in Monday's Korea Herald:

• In "[Editorial] Seoul’s rail project" (subtitled "Debacles in other cities should serve as lesson"), the editors accuse PARK Won-soon of pushing a pharaonic and ill-financed program of 10 new light railway lines in the capital (including new tributaries to the ones listed earlier this month, see "Seoul Light Rapid Transit Back On Tracks"), which would cost KRW 3.5 tn to a city already KRW 26 tn in the red (the government would foot 1.1 tn of the bill, leaving 3.9 tn to private investors), not counting yearly compensations for the operators. The Seoul Mayor is also suspected of outrageously flip-flopping on the issue in order to boost his ratings ahead of next year's elections: he cancelled 6 of the 7 lines initiated by his predecessor OH Se-hoon, and now he's pushing even further.

• In "Seoul City may halt free child care", we learn how Seoul Metropolitan City criticizes PARK Geun-hye's government for promoting a non-sustainable free child care program for all kids under 5. PARK Won-soon asks the government to raise its subsidies from 20 to 40% because unlike more demographically challenged regions, his financially challenged city has to cope with 408,000 of these little citizens. If he mentions the fact that 42% of them are raised in wealthy households (top 30% bracket), PARK Won-soon doesn't go all the way and say that 42% of these kids may not necessarily need a $180 check every month, because he himself was elected on a non-sustainable free meal program that contributes to the said deficit (reminder: ironically, OH Se-hoon was the one proposing the "leftist" model where the rich would pay for the poor - see "Welfare in Korea: the debate (or lack of)" 2012 and "Seoul free school lunch referendum (continued)" 2011).

But there's an awful lot to say about Seoul's new railway projects. We're Thursday and, as I just wrote this morning*, I haven't finished yet. So I'll post today the part about the big picture, and the one about the 10 Light Rail Transit projects will follow as soon as I can.

But first, my two cents about welfare.

*

1) On welfare:


Of course, that's just politics as usual. The Saenuri Party wants to claim back Seoul, and this free child care for all almost sounds like an ironic joke ("so you fancy universal freebies, uh?") at the expense of a man who could also become a serious menace for the 2017 presidential elections: elected as an independent, PARK Won-soon is now running for the DP, and leveraging Korea's most powerful local authority to multiply popular/populist initiatives, leaving his only potential rival to date AHN Cheol-soo very much isolated, with little political machinery around him, and little media coverage.

I already made my point about welfare state, the state of welfare, and the state of the debate on welfare in Korea. Again, PARK Won-soon must give up ideology and populism, embrace pragmatism, and among other things stop offering free meals to the wealthiest. And again, Saenuri and the governement must also give up their own ideology, populism and pharaonic pork-barrel projects, and among other things promote a sound and sustainable welfare system, and carry out the structural reforms needed to revive Korean demography (including in the education system...).

Unfortunately, reason remains most of the time a foreign word in Korean politics nowadays.

Significantly, in its revised Seoul Metropolitan Rapid Transit Master Plan**, the city is using the word "welfare" to qualify new railway projects. That's typical PARK Won-soon "human-centric-on-the-fringe-of-populism" lingua, but I do believe in public service, and in public transports as a fundamental right for metropolitan citizens. Besides, "welfare" and "fare well" are akin.

I'm not for or against anyone. I want Seoul, the region, and Korea as a whole to succeed and to invest wisely when it's still possible. And when I say "Korea as a whole", I mean both Koreas: the frontier is very close, and it won't remain closed forever.

At this moment, just like Korea has a welfare deficit, Seoul has a railway deficit, so if you ain't broke, fix it.

*

2) On the revised Seoul Metropolitan Rapid Transit Master Plan: yes, Seoul needs more railways...


10 years from now, all Seoulites shall live within a 10 min walk from a subway station. Or rather the overwhelming majority of Seoul citizens: the most remote parts of this mountainous city are not solely populated with Steve Austins, Jaime Sommerses, and other Usain Bolts.

The biggest gaping holes in the grid shall be significantly reduced (e.g. Seodaemun-gu, Geumcheon-gu, Northeast)

That's the ambitious target fixed in the revised Seoul Metropolitan Rapid Transit Master Plan** expected (in whose dreams?) to be validated next year by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport. Seoul will officially submit the plan in September.

Compared to earlier versions, the vision has been a bit simplified at the macro level and complexified at the micro level. I'll get into the details for the suggested improvements to the "broadband" backbone and Light Rail Transit projects, but one thing is sure: Seoul does need more railways.

If I already questioned the economic viability of the new light rail lines, I disagree with those who think that buses will solve everything. Even if the Seoul bus network is very efficient, railways mean high capacity and consistency, and they represent the main backbone for any metropolis, a core element of multimodal transportation systems aiming at reducing the use of cars and promoting public services and greener individual modes (pedestrians, cyclists...).

Clearly, Seoul is still lagging behind key rival capitals. Subways carry only 36% of Seoul passengers (28% take buses / 31% cars or taxis / 5% other), compared to 86% in Tokyo (1 / 11 / 2%), 65% in London (8 / 25 / 2%), and 58% in Paris (9 / 28 / 5%).

By extending its rail network to 441 km, Seoul expects to raise the share of public transport from 64 to 75%. Today, its 327 km-long network is only 15% longer than that of Paris, a city six times smaller:

City	Daily users (M)	Tot. rail netwk (km)	Subway (km)	Light Rail (km)	Street-car (km)	Mono-rail (km)	Netwk per citizen (km / M)
LONDON	3.210	464	402	34	28	-	67
PARIS	4.180	283	218	-	65	-	43
TOKYO	8.500	354	306	16	17	18	40
SEOUL	7.010	327	327	-	-	-	31

3) ... but the big picture could be improved


At the macro level, Seoul wants to beef up its "broadband" backbone, and to strengthten the 'Hanyang-Gangnam-Yeouido' triangle. "Hanyang", that's the original name of Seoul, a more poetic word than "downtown", and a wide area encompassing a significant number stations... except the one supposed to be Seoul's main hub: sorry, but Seoul Station is not located within fortress walls!

Anyway, here's the big picture:

This map shows us the three above mentioned hubs, and four colorful axes:

• The blue axis refers to the future Sinansan Line (Seoul Station-Ansan Jungang): Phase 1 (Yeouido-Gwangmyeong) is expected by 2019, and the rest (Seoul Station-Yeouido + Gwangmyeong-Jungang) by 2022. Seoul city doesn't need to change the program.

• The purple axis refers to the Sinbundang Line, which Seoul would like to extend all the way to the new Samsong District in Goyang via Gwanghwamun, a project that would also alleviate traffic congestion on Subway Line 3 and Tongil-ro. For the moment, only the Gangnam-Yongsan section of the extension is scheduled (Phase 3 - 2018, via Sinnonhyeon, Nonhyeon, Sinsa, Dongbinggo or Seobinggo, and Ichon). Where would they pass by after that? Seoul mentions a 19.7 km extension between Donbinggo and Samsong, and we've seen similar projects before (see for instance "3 subway lines projects revived ?", 2 years ago), but this time Pyeongchang-dong could be in the loop: both sides of Jahamun tunnel seem to be awarded a dot in the above "before-after" map, and the other day I saw banners urging local authorities to keep their promises and to deliver the long expected subway... Anyway, intense lobbying should rage everywhere and at all levels until the elections.

• The pink axis refers to the Suseo High Speed Railway (Suseo-Dongtan KTX - see "New KTX vertical to Gangnam by 2015" - NB: Suseo also in a Korea Train eXpress project to Pyeongtaek). Seoul wants a 30.4 km-long extension between Suseo and Uijeongbu via Cheongnyangni to create a Dongtan-Uijeongbu line. Note that this pink axis doesn't pass by any of the three hubs, which proves that the presentation needs some fixing.

• The green axis refers to the GTX Line B. Expected for September 2016, the Great Train eXpress project consists of 3 lines, each one about 45-50 km-long:
  - GTX Line A is in the general direction of the "purple axis" (Sinbundang): initially from KINTEX (Ilsan/Goyang) to Dongtan New Town (Hwaseong) via Daegok, Yeonsinnae, Seoul Station, Gangnam Station, and Suseo (NB: the Suseo-Dongtan part corresponds to the KTX, stretching the line to 74.8 km overall).
  - GTX Line C is in the general direction of the "pink axis" (KTX): from Geumjeong to Uijeongbu via Gwacheon, Yangjae, Gangnam, Cheongnyangni, and Changdong/Sanggye.
  - Seoul city focuses on the GTX Line B, initially planned from Cheongnyangni to Songdo via Seoul Station, Yongsan, Yeouido, Sindorim, Dangarae, Bupyeong, and Incheon City Hall. But only the Songdo-Dangarae-or-Sindorim section seemed secured. Seoul suggests to change course, and to draw a southern express line across Seoul from Dangarae to Jamsil (30.3 km), via Gangnam of course. Note that GTX is not just 3 times faster than a standard subway, it also has fewer stations, which would shrink a trip from the COEX to Ilsan from 83 to 22 min in case of Line A, or a Songdo-Jamsil from 112 to 39 min according to this newly suggested route.

Frankly, I'd like to see a different presentation. If we want to improve the whole system, we need to understand the situation and the dynamics, the challenges. We need to see several maps of Seoul and its sudogweon region with all existing road and railway networks, all the projects already in the pipe, the ones already in discussion, but also the mountains and valleys, the demographics, the fluxes by transportation modes, the hubs and nodes, the bottlenecks of today and tomorrow (e.g. New Towns)... We need to visualize the present and the future.

Before getting the recos for the rapid transit, we want a big picture of the dynamics, regardless of the transportation networks that enable them. There are too few elements in the document released last month about transports (Vision 2030), and not many maps, let alone relevant ones. If the  previous administration can be blamed for many things, it was much better at communicating a strategic vision and at drawing maps, for instance in this slide from the 2006-2010 plan (Vision 2020):

Of course this map is debatable too. But here, we know much more what's going on, and what the city has in mind. We also know that before thinking Songdo, Dongtan or Uijeongbu, Seoul thinks - as it should - Incheon, Daejeon, Chuncheon, or Pyeongyang (talking about the big picture and tomorrow challenges!). Furthermore, we visualize a much more relevant selection of main hubs: we're neither forgetting Yongsan, nor neglecting the considerable effort around Sangam-Susaek and Cheongnyangni-Wangsimni to boost Northwest and Northwest Seoul and relieve downtown bottlenecks at the same time.

So back to the drawing board. And more maps, please. I love maps.

*

See also the following 2 focus on all LRT projects:
"Seoul LRT Projects Update (Part 1/2)"
(the full list of 7+3+3 projects, the "3-Tailed Dragon")
"Seoul LRT Projects Update (Part 2/2)"
(all other projects)


*

* Well, I already did that Monday on Twitter, but with a constraint of 2x140 characters:



#ParkWonsoon wants fair free child care (same as what #OhSehoon wanted for free meal program ^^!)
(9:55 PM - 29 Jul 13 - twitter.com/theseoulvillage/status/361832451628216321)
#Seoul mayor #ParkWonsoon also flip-flopping regarding #OhSehoon's railway projects, according to @TheKoreaHerald
(9:58 PM - 29 Jul 13 - twitter.com/theseoulvillage/status/361833197744562177)

 

*

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* if writing "Yonsei-ro the first street in Seoul to ban cars in its transportation mix" contributed to the delay, it also paved some of the way ahead
** see "'서울 어디서나 도시철도 10분' - 철도 중심시대가 열립니다" (seoul.go.kr 20130725)

Ad Nauseam: about Dark Tourism, the Blind Spots of Memory, and Free Thrashing Agreements

Yesterday, I survived my first shaky landing in 20 years of Korea and 10 years of Incheon International Airport, courtesy typhoon Bolaven.

We'd knowingly left Seoul's hell (29+ degrees, 90%+ humidity, heavy rain) for a paradise called Cambodia (35+ degrees, 92%+ humidity, pouring rain), prefering the country's rainy season to its touristic rush hour. And we were rewarded with a wonderful trip between Siem Reap - Angkor and Phnom Penh, enjoying the marvels of the Khmer civilizations, the kindness of the people, great culinar experiences, incredibly lively markets and villages....

I'll spare you the 1500+ pixes I took, except these 3 sad ones. It's very unfair for such a beautiful country, but I had to make a few points.

The first picture was taken in Choeung Ek, better known as the "Killing Fields" of Phnom Penh, one of the main sites where the infamous Khmer Rouge regime mass murdered between one and two million innocent citizens.



Many Choeung Ek victims passed by Security Prison 21 (S-21), the symbol of Pol Pot's torture system, and now Tuol Sleng Genocide Museum. Here too, the unbearable stare of thousands of victims. Worse, you meet pupils instead of empty sockets:



Visiting such sites is always an upsetting experience, even more now that dark tourism has become so pervasive, and often associated with schadenfreude if not voyeurism. But what to make of this? At the top floor of the S-21 museum, an exhibition about the "Cambodia-Okinawa 'Peace Museum' Cooperation Project" was putting at the same level the civilian victims of the battle of Okinawa and the victims of the Cambodian genocide:




Till the end, this visit of Tuol Sleng exposed the worst of human nature. Of course, I feel deep empathy for innocent victims, and between 40 and 150,000 Japanese civilians died during that battle. But exactly like in the touching "Grave of the fireflies" animation movie, the audience is never told the whole story, the responsibilities of the Imperial regime are never mentioned, it's just a sad story about the absurdity of war and destruction, about remembering only one side of history, about painting Japan as a pure victim of World War II.

Putting at the same level the Cambodian genocide and this tragedy, which happened during a battle that also saw about 120,000 soldiers die (mostly within Japanese ranks), is as shocking as putting at the same level victims of the Holocaust and the civilian victims of say WWII Berlin.

This outrageous propaganda is also an insult to the memory of Okinawa victims, who do owe their fate to the madness of war, but also and firstly to the fascist regime that led their country to war crimes and crimes against humanity across the region.

The Japanese who initiated and financed this tasteless 'Peace Project' are deliberately fueling the "selective memory" imposture that obliterates the inconvenient truths of this great nation's history. It took almost 30 years for Cambodians to start prosecuting their war criminals, but over 65 years after WWII, Japan is still eluding its most essential duties as a democracy. Worse: as late as in 1978, when up to 300 innocents were butchered every day in Choeung Ek, Japan decided to enshrine 14 more of its own war criminals in Yasukuni. Still today, ministers keep honoring these war criminals in public.

As if maintaining the Japanese people in ignorance regarding the darkest sides of the Empire wasn't enough, impostors are now purchasing ad space abroad in the name of a caricature of peace that negates history and its lessons. They are shamelessly piggybacking on the Pol Pot franchise, using foreign war criminals to cover up their own war criminals.

Again, I love Japan, but these impostors have to be exposed, and this great country cannot keep eluding its past if it wants to have a sound future. The same can be said about most countries, including mine*, and of course Korea, a country where a former dictator walks free (Chun Doo-hwan), and another is adulated**, a country where the government decided to stop its truth and reconciliation process because it was seeking too much truth and too much reconciliation.

Actually, while reading the "Peace Museum" propaganda in S-21, I was reminded of my visit to another jail where history was not told very fairly: in Seodaemun Prison, you learn a lot about the atrocities committed under the Japanese occupation, but nothing about who was jailed there for which reason in the decades that followed.

History is like a parking lot: crimes are more likely to rehappen wherever you forget to put light, and even more likely where you decide to do so.

There is no other way of defusing the rising tensions across Asia, and particularly between Japan, Korea, and China, three countries about to officialize their FTA (Free Thrashing Agreement). And I seize the opportunity to thank the Korea Herald for publishing my answer to the recent Herald Voice question "How can N.E. Asia improve relations?" (20120827):

"Expose the imposters: hate mongers who feed upon each other, pseudo-nationalists who actually undermine their own nations, people who demand justice abroad but deny it at home. How can Japanese extremists at the same time suggest the ICJ for Dokdo and elude justice for comfort women? How can Chinese extremists at the same time claim islands and distort the whole region’s history and geography? How can Korean extremists demand justice from Japan and deny justice to their own people by terminating the Truth and Reconciliation Commission and revising dictatorship eras?"

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* among other French 'niceties' in Cambodia: the country used to be a French protectorate until 1953 (except between 1941 and 1945, when it was occupied by... Japan!), and Pol Pot received his ideological training in Paris.

** Park Chung-hee's regime has been repainted pink ever since his daughter entered the presidential race as "the best possible choice".

Welfare in Korea: the debate (or lack of)

In today's Korea Herald: "Should Korea adopt a welfare state?", and my take on the issue ("On welfare...", and below):

Welfare will probably be a key issue in this year's elections in Korea, and it should: particularly in these extremely challenging times, it's not only a matter of social security, but a matter of national security, about the social and financial sustainability of a nation.

If Korea is not the only country facing similar challenges in this electoral year, it must also cope with rather depressing demographic trends, and an utterly polarized political landscape. Last year, even the tragicomic budget debate in the States paled in comparison with Seoul's surreal war about free lunches at school. I can't even use the word "debate", which implies the existence of a two-way communication, for a farce that resulted in the ultimate denial of democracy: the boycott of a referendum intended to settle the case.

All parties share the blame, but the irony of it is that Oh Se-hoon lost his seat with the support of conservatives for a cause that would have been carried by the left in such welfare states as France. I supported Oh Se-hoon on this very cause because it was just, and truly progressive.

And I bet that his successor Park Won-soon, also a good person who genuinely cares for the community, will eventually realize that he'll be able to do much more if he drops the free-for-all system he fought for. Anyway, both shared a sensible vision: Korea needs to do more, and better for welfare.

"More and better" requires common sense as much as good will. Regardless of which areas and how deep it reaches, a good welfare system is a sustainable welfare system. And since it's designed to fix complex problems that constantly evolve, it must always remain fit and reactive. Thus, a good welfare system should be both transparent and fair.

Transparency? A lot of money is at stake, and the system should be closely but openly monitored. In every country, billions are lost in corruption, abuse, waste or fraud from all areas of the spectrum. They cripple the system, and even when they represent only a tiny fraction of the total, they undermine the cause.

Transparency also allows the detection of early signals, the anticipation of disruptions in the environment, the adjustment of policies ahead of troubles.

Fairness? "Universal coverage", "equal rights" or "equal access" doesn't mean everybody should pay the same. No welfare system is sustainable if the richer don't pay for the poorer.

That's not socialism but good governance, and history teaches us all too often what happens when governments fail to accept this evidence.

In Korea like everywhere, the time has come for politicians to do their job. To govern is to foresee, and politics is not about partisanship but about reaching for the best common good with ambitious but wise policies.

More common sense and less ideology in 2012? A rather long shot, judging by the US primaries.

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