Trump-Kim II (from a fly on no wall)

So the second Trump-Kim Summit has just been confirmed*, and as expected (see "Seoul Village Season XIII"), many are afraid of the concessions the POTUS is ready to make.

We just intercepted the phone call that settled the meeting between both leaders:

KIM Jong-un: "I accept to meet you if you accept to condition our denuclearization to US withdrawal from the South".

Donald TRUMP: "Whatever you ask. Could you please VX Mueller and pay for my wall?"


Seoul Village 2019
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* Singapore? Danang? Hanoi? End of February? Beginning of March?

Euljiro v. Wide? My Alleyway or the Highway

So the danger seems even more immediate than I feared for old Euljiro eateries (e.g. Eulji Myeonok), as well as for more recent ones (the amazing, booming Euljiro 3-ga nogari alley):

"Restoration project not planning to restore much" (KJD 20190118) - note that Eulji Myeonok was also featured in a Chosun Ilbo article

After decades of neglect, Euljiro is undergoing rapid, radical changes that may save or destroy rare ecosystems, and these are truly critical times for all stakeholders.

If you're not familiar with the area, and the context, we're talking about the bleeding heart of Seoul, serious controversies around how urban regeneration / renewal is being carried out, and manufactured crises hitting an already weakening economy.


1) Why Euljiro matters


'Euljiro' is one of the most defining axes of the original Seoul intra muros - a few weeks ago I posted a short animation explaining that big picture ('Drawing Sadaemun'):





Euljiro is the backbone of what I call "Cheongnam" (by opposition to Cheongbuk*), or the Southern half of Sadaemun, between Cheonggyecheon and Namsan. This very dense urban maze holds countless old neighborhoods ('dong') where small businesses thrived over centuries.

Under Japanese rule, a few streets leading to Cheonggyecheon bridges were widened, and new thick vertical lines cut through the area. On safety grounds (preventing fires from spreading too far, providing landing lanes), but probably also for political reasons, following Haussmann's example in Paris: it's way easier to contain unrest, and way more difficult to erect or hold barricades.

Still, now, along Eulji-ro itself, the horizontal avenue linking basically Deoksugung / City Hall / Seoul Plaza to the DDP and Gwanghuimun, you can find:

• seven verticals (Euljiro 1-ga to 7-ga), 
• series of more or less tiny neighborhoods to the North (Da-dong, Supyo-dong, Ipjeong-dong, Sallim-dong, Jugyo-dong, Bangsan-dong...), and to the South (Sogong-dong, Myeong-dong, Jeo-dong, Inhyeon-dong, Ojang-dong, Chungmuro, Gwanghui-dong...).

Unlike Jong-ro or Yulgok-ro, the more noble horizontals to the North, Eulji-ro doesn't boast royal landmarks. Big companies dot it, particularly along its Western half, closer to the city center (SKT, KEB Hana Bank, IBK, Lotte Hotel and Department Store), but the neighborhood is also known for its myriads of small businesses in printing, lighting, home improvement, its BtoB activities buzzing with rickety motorbike deliveries.

And eateries. A lot of precious holes in the wall, including institutions that have resisted for decades because the food is good and cheap. Here, you simply can't last long if you're not both.

In these tiny alleyways, many people struggle to make a living. If you can't find a store that has everything you need, that's often deliberate: everyone refers to a cluster of providers to make sure each one gets part of whatever meager job passes by. A category killer like Home Depot or Leroy Merlin would instantly put thousands on the dole.

Because land is too expensive for such a famelic ecosystem, Euljiro became this absurd patchwork of touching time capsules, even if it seats in the heart of the city, crisscrossed by the densest network of public transportation, starting with the first five subway lines (thus the powerful Line 2, with no less than 3 stations named after it).

For Seoul's balance and future, Euljiro has to be saved, and to fully embrace the third millenium, but without losing its soul and unique ecosystem... very much like the iconic Seun Sangga, which seats in its very middle (between its Cheonggye Sangga and Sampoong Sangga sections).

That's a very delicate line to walk, and good intentions don't necessarily lead to good results, as we've seen with KIM Swoo-geun's mammoth, from the initial brief ("Revamping Seun Sangga - If Possible Without Vampirizing The Area") to the first results (as revealed during "Seoul Biennale of Architecture and Urbanism 2017").


2) Change is coming at all levels


To me, the turning point could have been 101 Pine Avenue, an ambitious development first positioned as the first luxury residence in the area. But as the post-Lehman slump stretched, it became a more standard office complex. If Jung-gu rejuvenated its business center earlier and faster along Cheonggyecheon, more towers have bloomed over the past few years along Eulji-ro, radically altering an until then relatively low rise cityscape, but also 'sterilizing' an heteroclite street level in the same breath.

"Tightrope walker #construction workers on #Euljiro, #Seoul." (20171031 - www.instagram.com/p/Ba5-1ueFtiZ)

In parallel, Seoul keeps rediscovering its unsung landmarks as part of what could be described as an urban vintage chic trend: all of a sudden, ugly becomes art, obscure alleyways get insta-hyped, and corny eateries fill with young couples roaming until-then-forsaken neighborhoods.

"JungJaeho's facades, familiar #Jongno & #Euljiro unsung landmarks - #KoreaArtistPrize 2018 #exhibition at #MMCASeoul, #Seoul. #architecture" (20181027 - www.instagram.com/p/BpbLFK1lA6a)

As usual, I'm enchanted to see Seoulites, particularly younger generations, eventually embrace their urban heritage, and at the same time, I'm sad to see gentrification at work. And as usual, I have to plead guilty, since I never could resist Euljiro's clumsy, charming time capsules**:

View this post on Instagram

#Euljiro3ga #alleyways, vintage #Jongnogu, #Seoul. #을지로3가 #골목 #종로구 #서울

A post shared by Stephane MOT (@stephanemot) on Dec 16, 2018 at 11:33pm PST

Needless to say, Seoul Metropolitan Government remains a driving force of change. And as it should be, Euljiro is a cornerstone in downtown's urban regeneration, and not just around major renovation projects like Sewoon Sangga or Euljiro underground shopping center, Korea's longest (2.8 km from City Hall to the DDP, built in 1983 at the same time of the Line 2 it follows).

Euljiro 3-ga, in 2016, an area of 40,600 square meters was marked for a mix of redevelopment and conservation. Seoul dumped its initial plans (2010-2011) of demolishing large chunks around Supyo-dong, where 77.4% of the buildings were over 40 year-old, and 82.5% were in such a poor state that they required renovation or reconstruction. In a less radical improvement scenario, several landmarks are spared, like the massive Donghwa Building.

Recent tragedies have pushed local authorities to impose new safety controls for old buildings, which will accelerate Euljiro's transformation.

If so many buildings are crumbling, that's also because rent was relatively cheap compared to land value. Landowners being now compelled to do something, and the area recovering some of its popularity, renovations and new buildings could eventually lead to higher yields, forcing the weaker to move out. 

As that Mullae-dong resident summed up Seoul's real estate curse, 'when everybody's driven out of a neighborhood at once, that's redevelopment. When the same happens one by one, that's urban regeneration':

(20190109 - twitter.com/theseoulvillage/status/1082797035969949696)

 
3) Small businesses in immediate danger


As shown in the KJD article, restaurant owners struggle to distinguish this high speed urban regeneration with classic redevelopment, and they fear for their survival, even if their own building will be spared. 

If we've seen this happen before in countless Seoul neighborhoods, this trauma comes at a critical moment for small businesses, who have to face massive hikes in overtime, and minimum wages, that have already caused so much havoc across Korea's economy (see "Checks and balances"). Jongno's old-style structures are even more vulnerable:

"Not all shops in downtown Seoul are ready for a massive minimum wage hike that already cost many jobs: http://joongangdaily.joins.com/news/article/article.aspx?aid=3057438" (20181228 - twitter.com/theseoulvillage/status/1078472698982875137)

"Hundreds of small businesses at risk. I'm thinking about those small home improvement stores that barely survive by artificially splitting between themselves products and services within tiny clusters #Euljiro #Jongno #Seoul" (20180815 - twitter.com/theseoulvillage/status/1029616527279095808)

Across the nation, many restaurants consider closing at 9 pm instead of 10 because they can't afford new overtime fees. I'm all for protecting employees, but these too sudden, too massive hikes are not only creating more unemployment, but also changing the mood of communities. Euljiro, where the small business / resident ratio is so high, may rapidly lose its charm.


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* south of the stream, not south of the river... let's be clear: Gangnam doesn't belong to my Seoul :)
** and I keep discovering new ones (I'm thinking of another incredible gem - thank you again Jaiho!)

Seoul Village Season XIII

Welcome to the new year, the 13th of this excuse for a blog. 

And so long, 2018.

As usual, it all revolved around my 3 favorite verticals: culture, urbanism, and politics. 

But 2018 was NOT a usual year. And as we shifted from pre-war panic ("Alert!") to post-summit fatigue, we watched KIM Jong-un play MOON Jae-in and Donald TRUMP as easily as an elder statesman would with naive kids... Almost as pathetic as my fake interviews with KJU and DJT (see "Exclusive interview with KIM Jong-un - Season III" and "Trump: The Art of the Dealapidation (Exclusive Interview)")...

2018 was hot, dry, and utterly polluted. And the situation is even worse than advertised, since Seoul moved almost all its air quality monitors far above the recommended limit of 10 m. Coal wins again...

2018 was supposed to be remembered as the year of the Pyeongchang Olympics, but Korea scored too many own goals against its economy and society to celebrate. Just like my other home country, France, is more likely to remember 2018 for that tragic 'Gilets Jaunes' farce than for a second World Cup victory.

So. What does 2019 have in store for us*?

• Another ride on North Korea's emotional roller coaster, of course; yet another make or break or collapse year.
• An anniversary, too: 100 years after the March 1st Movement, Korea-Japan relations are bound to jump back up to the top of mind. Emperor Akihito abdicates only a few weeks later, and any subliminal message from him or / and his successor Naruhito will be closely monitored. Let's hope this great nation will not abdicate to its worst enemies from within, and will preserve the post-war, peaceful Constitution that Shinzo Abe and Nippon Kaigi have pledged to destroy.
• We should also keep an eye on troop levels. They've already seriously melted South of the DMZ, and I wouldn't be surprised to hear more controversial statements from the White House about US presence in the region...
• More changes in Seoul's ever shapeshifting cityscape. Some positive, please, we need them after recent, familiar, distressing news (more greenbelt areas sacrificed, more 'New Towns' planned...).

So I'll keep posting every now and then. Less often than I used to, particularly since I started spilling over Twitter (that's @THEseoulvillage, mind you), but as always with my independent, naturally subjective, and embarrassingly inept points of view.

Happy New Year to you, the ones you care for, and the ones no one care for.

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* beyond my yearly predictions, that is (see "Happy New Year 2020" and "Bonne année 2020")

Huddled masses yearning to breathe free

Seoul is inviting pedestrians to enjoy a break from freezing winds under bus stops wrapped with plastic walls, a Winter equivalent to the wide parasols local authorities positioned at main crossroads last Summer.

Last Summer, #Seoul multiplied wide parasols to protect pedestrians at crossroads. This winter, it dressed bus stations with plastic walls to give them shelter from bitter cold: (20181216 - twitter.com/theseoulvillage/status/1074143256881946624)
Comment by @JeffreyNMeade (20181216): 'I saw parasols in Seocho-gu decorated like Christmas trees. Appreciated them I The summer, and nice that they are being used in the off-season.'

Nice touches, in a city prone to extreme weather (over 40 celsius last July, averages well under 10 below zero in February 2011).

Yes, the shade of a parasol may not be as refreshing as that of a tree, and plastic walls may not be the most eco-friendly material, but that's an improvement from shops leaving the air con on with their doors fully open, or heated benches at outdoor bus stops.

The question is: with what will Seoul come up to cope with bad air quality? For the commoners who dared come out without their 99.999 filter masks?

And even when we think we're protected, how about these nefarious nano-particles we keep carrying on our heads and clothes (when we forgot our space suits complete with helmets and oxygen tanks), before shedding / sharing them wherever we go next (very high concentration in subways)?

Decontamination tents, that's what I bet will come next at a subway entrance near you.

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Checks and balances

Last week's Cheong Wa Dae reshuffle did little to restore MOON Jae-in's momentum.

A few months ago, the President was still enjoying record approval rates (over 80%!): people felt so relieved after bracing for an imminent military conflict, that everything else seemed trivial. Everybody knew that these peaceful summits with North Korea wouldn't lead to denuclearization, that the economy was on the wrong track, that the air we breathe was not tasting any better, but at least apocalypse had been postponed sine die*.

As time passed, survivor's euphoria dissipated, summit fatigue sunk in, and the malaise grew, with criticisms more and more centered around MOON Jae-in's very character, particularly following three disturbingly noxious axes: 

• is he being too much played by KIM Jong-un? 
• is he letting ideology too much undermine the economy? 
• is he taking too much liberty with separation of powers?

Regarding North Korea, this President does go far beyond the good cop routine. Instead of maintaining a friendly pressure, he seems to be all out pushing KIM Jong-un's agenda: the JSA transformed into a welcome mat? a no fly zone over the DMZ? joint inspection of the Hangang? massive diplomatic efforts in favor of lifting sanctions?

If Pope Francis didn't say no to a visit to Pyongyang, Macron, May, and Merkel politely but firmly rejected an Iran deal scenario. At home, the opposition as well as members of MOON's own party were not happy to discover that massive parts of the infrastructure budget had not only remained unspent, but reallocated to a fund for future infrastructure in North Korea, without any notice to the Assembly.

A few days later, MOON Jae-in convened party leaders to ask them to get ready for a KIM Jong-un visit to South Korea... What does he expect? The Liberty Korea Party to send cheerleaders along Sejong-daero and throw petals at the dictator's motorcade?

Regarding the economy, after months of denial that anything was wrong, the President fired his controversial aide JANG Ha-sung, who kept praising the massive minimum wage hike that totally crippled the nation's dynamics at the worst moment, even after KIM Dong-yeon, the Deputy Prime Minister for the Economy, conceded that the unpopular measure could have played a role in higher unemployment and slower growth.

MOON fired KIM at the same time, replacing him with HONG Nam-ki. But to fill JANG's shoes, he picked another controversial figure, KIM Soo-hyun, announcing that the new KIM would have more power than HONG. KIM Soo-hyun later said that he would be a team player, and that HONG was in charge, but the damage was done. 

A former head of the Seoul Institute, KIM Soo-hyun is not an expert in economics, but specializes in urbanism and environment. His name is associated with disastrous policies that were supposed to curb real estate speculation, but fueled it instead; first under ROH Moo-hyun, then under MOON Jae-in (as senior presidential secretary for social affairs). Both JANG and KIM mean well, and both want to help the little guy, but both end up hurting the little guy even more because both tend to puts ideology first, to neglect impact studies, and to refuse to admit mistakes or to learn from them. 

Beyond failed castings and policies, MOON Jae-in is criticized for bypassing institutions. The Deputy PM in charge of Economy is not running the show, but coping with the consequences of JANG and KIM's decisions. And these advisors don't have to be confirmed by the Assembly. So far, MOON Jae-in has imposed seven Ministers that haven't been confirmed, and the last one (CHO Myung-rae - Environment) even failed the legislative vetting.

If people at the Ministry of Economy are not comfortable with owning the failures of a handful of Cheong Wa Dae advisors, what to say of lawmakers from MOON's ruling Democratic Party? For months, they have begged the President to change policies, if he doesn't want his camp to get shellacked at the 2020 elections.

The situation is truly distressing: small businesses are barely surviving, small jobs are suppressed in record numbers, youth unemployment is skyrocketing. For too many, MOON's 'income-led' policy has lead to zero income. And it's only days after growth forecasts have been slashed from 3.1 to 2.7% that we learn that most of the government's investments in infrastructure have been secretly sacrificed for North Korean dreams.

If we're by no means talking separation of power breaches or corruption scandals in the PARK Geun-hye-CHOI Soon-sil-WOO Byung-woo vein, there is a crisis at the executive level, and MOON Jae-in must bring more serious changes to dissipate growing doubts.

ADDENDUM - 20181113 UPDATE
After the minimum wage debacle, the NPS sinking.
Cheong Wa Dae ayatollahs just rejected 3 scenarii from finance ministry to save the National Pension, even adding that they didn't mind depleting the fund to give away more today.
They could and should have given more today, by not reallocating secretly huge parts of the infrastructure budget to future North Korea plans...

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* knock on wood - Trump may still need a diversion from various probes. The only 'red nose' we want for Christmas is Rudolf's.

Invasion of the gimchi snatchers

Two years after "Train to Busan", and a few months before the shooting of "Train to Busan 2" begins, "Rampant" ("창궐") is topping Korea's box office. All three Korean zombie movies, all three backed by Next Entertainment World, who's obviously milking this mad cow to the bone.

If traces of social satire could be found in 'Busan haeng' (by no means in the same proportions as in George A. Romero's 'Night of the living dead'), this period flick set in Joseon era seems purely devoted to action and martial art stunts, with the 'and zombies' suffix that sold 'Pride and prejudice and zombies' or 'Abraham Lincoln vs. Zombies'.

Brace for the next variants. Why not a Juche zombie movie?

Wait... I already wrote the script for that one (see "Rise Of The Nork Zombies").

So maybe they'll try a Yangbanpire movie next...

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Land mining Seoul

Seoul is once again* about to lose more of its ever shrinking greenbelt area. The main difference with last time? Mayor PARK Won-soon is opposing the move, because it might hurt his presidential ambitions: even if acted now, the move wouldn't translate into new dwellings before 6 to 7 years, and trees would be torn down too close to the 2022 elections.

'Shame on #Korea's Ministry of Land and Territory, which is considering reducing even more #Seoul's protected greenbelt areas to provide more #housing. When there's already oversupply, and fewer people living in the capital!' (20180921 - twitter.com/theseoulvillage/status/1042933809820446720)

'This time, #seoul mayor #ParkWonsoon is opposing the move, which may backfire for his presidential bid' (20180921 - twitter.com/theseoulvillage/status/1042948381071630338)

Seoul does want to add 62,000 dwellings, by using idle land and relaxing FAR rules. The Ministry of Land, Transport, and Maritime Affairs targets 50,000, but to achieve that goal, intends to tear down greenbelt areas (300,000 sqm).

This good-cop-bad-cop routine between the government and PARK Won-soon doesn't fool anyone. Particularly the week MOON Jae-in all but knighted him as first in line of succession by inviting him (along with his Gangwon-do rival) to Pyongyang for his third summit with KIM Jong-un, pretexting their first-in-line-when-the-gimchi-hits-the-fan-ness (nevermind Gyeonggi-do).

Anyway, MOON's government doesn't have much to lose in taking the blame for destroying Seoul's last lungs: they're not running in 2022, and they are already under fire for their miserable handling of real estate bubbles: everything they try is fueling them now, in anticipation of their downfall. The intentions are good, but like Paris with environment, they leave it up to an ideological ayatollah with little understanding of environmental and economical collateral damage.

Anyway, speculation keeps ruining Seoul. To the point that in some instances, pools of homeowners bully, boycott, and force into bankruptcy realtors who dare post prices too low for their taste.

One thing is sure: there is already an oversupply of dwellings, and Seoul's population has shrunk under PARK Won-soon's watch. Gaping inequalities remain, and heavy regulation is required, but adding further artificial and counterproductive distortions won't help. New social housing projects should propose prices that are fair and affordable, not cowardly indexed at bubble-level-minus-20%.

An opening of North Korea would definitely change the equation. Co-organizing Olympics with North Korea in 2032? Not so much. And where would they be held, without abandoning the one-city rule? Seoul-Pyongyang? Kaesong? Panmunjom?

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* see "We reject as false the choice between our welfare and our well being", "Tighten your greenbelt"... 
** "풀어도 문제, 놔둬도 고민"…서울 그린벨트 '딜레마' (Chosun Ilbo 20180919)