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Tuesday, October 21, 2008

China ready to bail out North Korea

The Chinese are rumored to be piling up troops on the North Korean border.

Observers are expecting major announcements from North Korea regarding their Dear Leader.

John McCain* is dreaming of an October surprise that could put economy behind security in voters minds.


Whatever happens or does not happen, I'm afraid the base case scenario for North Korea remains gloomy :

. Even if Kim Jong-il is not dead yet, the Kim dynasty is obviously already over
. Only China can bail out both politically and economically the North Korean regime in the long run, and I'm quite sure NK leaders are already negociating some kind of partial handover
. Beijing leaders want Korea, and they mean to "liberate" the North one way or another as the first step towards a "Reunification of Goguryeo"under the Chinese umbrella.
. For years, China has been preparing for a(n ideally) soft Anschluss, leveraging on both its Korean minority, and an army of revisionist pseudo-historians. Thus the importance of the big lie about Goguryeo presented as a Chinese civilization born on Chinese soil).

. The survival of NK regime is a matter of years, Chinese strategists think in centuries... and like in Tibet, pervasive sinicization (中国化) will only take decades.
. Even in case of a sudden collapse of the North (particularily in this case), the "Korean Chinese" would be there first, their arms full of Beijing gold, and any self determination system would lead to a vote in favor of China.
The reunification with South Korea becomes impossible outside of the Chinese authority.
. The South cannot move by itself, and don't count on NATO for that one. The UN ? Considering how easily Russia could invade Georgia, how could the Security Council, which includes China, criticize a "peaceful" Chinese Anschluss presented as a friendly gathering of North Koreans ?

In a nutshell : Dear Leader KIM Jong-il out of the picture ? No problemo : a Juche v2 miraculously starts, Korean Chinese are invited to "come back" to North Korea (at that point, the Anschluss is already done), Uncle Sam uses his right to remain silent, BAN Ki-moon chokes on a NYC pretzel on his way to the UN, and Korea as a nation is history.

One must definitely speak up before it's too late.

* btw : Gallup released yesterday a poll on the perception of US elections across 70 nations. Overall, Obama leads by a 4 to 1 ratio (2 to 1 in South Korea), and only two countries would prefer McCain as the next president : Philippines and Georgia.

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