On Korea's Jigsaw, Urban Footprint, and Urban Replanning

If you're a frequent flyer on my Korean errlines, you've had your fill of rants about recurring blunders in urban planning, the persistence of obsolete visions of urbanism, or (re)development equations that totally ignore plummeting demographics.

Well criticizing is easy. Urban harmony is like life or democracy: a very delicate, dynamic balance of power, a complex, evolutive system of checks and balances. No one will ever achieve perfection, and that's the beauty of it.

Besides, I see some glimmers of hope. Korea has eventually started worrying seriously about its shrinking population, seeking more inter-regional solidarity and cooperation, thinking about reviving ailing city centers in smarter ways... 

Korea is starting to realize that the real estate paradigm it's been addicted to for decades has become a Ponzi scheme, a sub-zero sum game where eventually everybody loses, even the wealthy ones who won't be able to resell their 'luxury condos' with a profit after paying much more for them than they would have for the most outrageous Manhattan penthouses.

Korea is starting to realize that it can't afford 'affordable housing' if that means building apartment blocks in greenbelt areas, that when a 'new town' succeeds somewhere, it means that somewhere else, an older town in depleting.

Korea is starting to realize that it can't keep adding new non-matching pieces to an ever growing jigsaw puzzle on an ever shrinking table, that these absurd urban footprint dynamics can't be sustained any longer.

The 5th Comprehensive National Territorial Plan, which covers the most critical 2020-2040 period, already mentions sustainability and other sound principles, but all is not set in marble and a lot has happened since it was released 5 years ago: rural desertification and fertility rate diminution accelerated dramatically, the GTX and other projects reshuffled whole decks... So a revised version is expected next year, for the 2026-2040 period.

Improving inter-regional solidarity and cooperation remains a key goal, particularly where they prove already challenging at the intra-regional level because of political divisions or fierce city rivalries. 

In addition to their autonomy, such special self-governing provinces as Jeollabuk-do or the recently upgraded 'Gangwon State' don't have to deal with special cities punching holes in their maps. In comparison, Gyeonggi-do must cope not only with giant neighbors nesting in its midst (Seoul and Incheon*), but also with a complex history of city creation explaining odd administrative shapes, or new towns stretching over different cities (e.g. Dongtan).

Granting a special status to a local government was generally done without much concern for the impacts around, which prevented all parties from reaching their full potential.

Wherever you stand on the fierce political fight over the creation of Sejong City (the left wanted to move the capital city to a new, central location to balance development across South Korea - the right refused to undermine Seoul and maintained part of the government there), you have to admit that from an urbanism point of view, things could have been done a bit better.

We're not talking Brasilia or Nusantara, a new capital erected far away from existing hubs: Sejong City seats right* next to the metropolitan city of Daejeon, South Korea's 5th largest cit, its central hub, and already the seat of several  central administrations, and right next to Cheongju, Chungcheongnam-do's capital.

Daejeon lies less than one hour away from Seoul via KTX but no, Sejong City must not enjoy express connectivity with the 'old' capital because then civil servants would commute instead of moving to Sejong**. And no, Daejeon's subway shouldn't come all the way to Sejong's vital parts. At its inception, it's almost as if Sejong City was designed as a local competitor instead of a national facilitator.

17 years after its creation, Sejong claims 400k souls, Daejeon remains around 1.5M, and Cheongju inched up from 650 to 720k. Common sense would have led to something more  rational, even simply two cities instead of three: the regional capital Cheongju and a-name-it-whatever-you-fancy-as-long-as-you-spare-local-susceptibilities national capital bis. If arranged harmoniously, I bet the latter would be today a thriving 2.5-3M strong metropolis.

Mind you, both Daejeon and Sejong are faring relatively well nowadays, but I'm not surprised to see the Sejong City - Daejeon - Chungnam - Chungbuk ensemble included in the potential revisions to Korea's 5th CNTP. Some consistency would clearly make the meta-region more competitive internationally - with the caveat that it wouldn't present an official one-stop front. 

Same with 'sudogwon', the capital region (Seoul-Incheon-Gyeonggi-do): unlike say the Ile de France region that encompasses Paris and its surroundings, it doesn't really exist as an official entity with representatives. It does make sense for the national government to be directly involved in an area representing half the nation's population and GDP, but the World's 4th metropolitan bloc can't fully leverage its potential. Of course, adding another administrative layer and the tensions that go with them, particularly with dwindling resources, may not necessarily be the panacea. Some even envision Daejeon + Sejong + Chungnam + Chungbuk as an 'ultra-wide megacity' - at least that would avoid the ego problem of who gets to be granted the regional capital status...

The debates promise to be complex and animated, but it's important to get every stakeholder involved, to identify all the impacts of each option, to learn from past mistakes, to minimize / optimize the urban footprint, to think urbanism beyond cities, towns, and other labels, wherever humans decided to settle or to build (be it a road, a remote factory, a farm, or even a field), and not to build for builders' sake.

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* If the cities are administratively continuous, there's no actual urban continuum... but then again, few cities in Korea excel at urban continuity.

** Likewise, I still can't stomach the fact that the railway from Seoul to Incheon Airport was deliberately delayed until a few years after inauguration because that would have hurt taxi businesses. Or that Songdo didn't have a subway from day one (hello? a ginormous polder built from scratch?). At least nowadays, if new big fat greenfield 'new towns' keep popping up, most of them include a railway connection.

GTXtension(s) - fast transit rather than mass commuting?

In case you missed it, three new projects of GTX (Great Train eXpress) lines were announced earlier this year. Since we're getting closer to the inauguration of the first section on March 30 (GTX-A from Suseo to Dongtan), but also to key elections on April 10, I'll spare you all the wonderful urban development pledges that have popped up from all sides (I guess merging Gimpo with Seoul was one of the most radical), and talk a bit more about these Great Train extensions and GTX-tensions.

By stretching ABC and adding DEF, the network reaches further North, South, West, and East, and draws a first ring around Seoul and across Gyeonggi-do (GTX-F):

If GTX clearly brings places closer together, dividing by 3 the time to join Suseo and Dongtan, and if it reaches relatively fast speeds (105 km/h in its inaugural section, with peaks at 180 km/h), the system is 'express' in the sense that it makes few stops. And so far, it has more or less managed to resist intense pressure to add intermediary stations, particularly within Seoul. 

Which makes the success of seamless multimodal transport hubs even more critical, and I'm not sure that will be the case from day one. 'Luckily', the traffic shall not be too massive, because as it is conceived now, GTX can't really handle mass commuting. 

Beyond the limited number of trains per hour, their shortness is an issue, and commuters may struggle to find a spot to hop in, particularly in intermediary stations. I've experienced rush hour on Paris region's RER, with its long, double-decker trains, and that's not always pleasant... We may not see scenes similar to Line 9 saturation on steroids, but expect at least significant frustration from a lot of people who were expecting GTX as the instant panacea.

GTX provides fast transit before mass transit, it shortens connections before coping with mass commuting, and that's already something big. Even if you won't commute to work there, simply knowing that you can go to Seoul very quickly for lunch, dinner, or on a weekend can make moving far away less alienating. 

These massive and costly extensions do add Gangwon-do (Chuncheon and Wonju) and Chungcheongnam-do (Cheonan) to the equation, but also risk of further widening the gaps between sudogwon (Seoul-Incheon-Gyeonggi) and the rest of Korea as well as within the capital region and within the capital itself. With its relatively cheap fees (KRW 3.2K + 250 per 5 km), GTX may even cannibalize such alternatives as KTX.

The choices of routes and stations is always debatable and many areas within and beyond Seoul will remain underserved, but I always welcome transversal approaches in transport, and cooperation within the capital region. Nowadays, Seoul is collaborating much closer with Gyeonggi-do, including for its Climate Card now, and a ring bringing Gyeonggi closer together and bypassing the capital altogether marks a significant step.

Somehow, GTX is forcing the emergenceof  the grand vision, the great debate that's always been lacking. The way this whole region keeps developing remains a litany of missed opportunities, particularly since most of this urban and transport development (or lack of) relied on new towns built from scratch. And you know how often I complain about so much urban planning without urbanism or planning.

Now we're hearing about covering the Gyeongin Expressway and the rift between the Eastern and Western sides of Dongtan new town, and both will cost a fortune, but the Seoul-Inchon axis dates from ages ago, and that rift should have been solved from Dongtan's very conception. As demographics plummet and finances shrink, Korea can't afford not to get it right from the beginning. 

This nation is so great at alphabets, it should contemplate beyond ABCDEF.

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Yeongdong-daero Underground City, Korea (YUCK?)

Last March, KEPCO surpassed Hyundai Motor in market capitalization (KRW 37 tn vs 34). Ironically, since Hyundai's financial trouble have something to do with their purchase from KEPCO, in September 2014, of prime land along Yeongdong-daero, for a whopping USD 10 bn.

As you know (e.g. Yeongdongwon focus in last year's "Diagonal crossings, High Lines, and Business Verticals (how pedestrians and businesses remodel Seoul... and vice-versa)"), that site will host the group's future HQ - Hyundai Motor Global Business Center - at the core of a redesigned COEX-Jamsil business district that will stretch over both sides of Tancheon stream (Samseong-dong and Daechi-dong in Gangnam-gu, Jamsil-dong in Songpa-gu), and grow what is already a significant transportation hub into a gigantic one.

Yesterday, Seoul Metropolitan Government released more details about that part of the puzzle, an 'underground city' to be delivered by 2021:

• A big whale: 160,000 square meters under Yeongdong-daero (6 underground floors, 630 m long, 70 wide, 51 deep). Cost: KRW 1.169 tn
• A multimodal hub: subway (Samseong Station on Line 2, Bongeunsa on Line 9), bus (including the City Air Terminal), express railways (GTX-A Samseong-Dongtan, GTX-C Uijeongbu-Samseong-Gunpo, KTX Northeast extension), LRT (Wirye-Sinsa Line - see "Seoul LRT Projects Update (Part 2/2)"). Expected gains in commuting times to Dongtan and City Hall: from respectively 41 and 29 mn by car, to 20 and 5 mn by rail

Views presented last year

The hub will also include various culture and service facilities, and a shopping area complementing the COEX Mall. Pedestrians shall have a better time navigating a space until now devoted to Car Almighty.

With its countless traffic lanes, Yeondong-daero looks like a pre-Gwanghwamun-plaza Sejongno on steroids, and this project seems to consider a similar, tree-less, tip-of-the-iceberg central walkway. But it's not as if masses will roam the surface like downtown: distances are even greater, and most of the fun will remain indoor. As nice as Bongeunsa is, it doesn't rival with Jongno landmarks and Bugaksan.

Still, this transport hub certainly looks less nightmarish than Banpo's Express Bus Terminal, because the Yeongdong-daero / Teheran-ro intersection is far less messy, and because you don't have 'apateu' blocks the scale of say a Banpo Xi. One can also hope that the user experience will be better thought through, more seamless.

How much this will cannibalize business from COEX Mall or Lotte World remains to be seen. But it's already adding trouble to the old business center of Gangnamistan: vacancy rates are expected to keep growing in Gangnam Business District (around Gangnamdae-ro and Teheran-ro at Gangnam Station), even if Hyundai Motor is moving in the time to build its new extravaganza.
Common sense, demographic and economic trends tend to make us think that a success story here would mean a failure somewhere else. And this zero-sum game leaves us every year with more infrastructures to fill.

Let's hope that this 'underground city', which unlike many pharaonic projects does have a purpose, won't be the vast magma chamber of a supervolcano bubble, but at least a successful transport hub.


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If you ain't broke, fix it: Seoul, Welfare and Railways Deficits

I wanted to say a thing or two* about welfare and railway projects in Seoul following these two articles in Monday's Korea Herald:

• In "[Editorial] Seoul’s rail project" (subtitled "Debacles in other cities should serve as lesson"), the editors accuse PARK Won-soon of pushing a pharaonic and ill-financed program of 10 new light railway lines in the capital (including new tributaries to the ones listed earlier this month, see "Seoul Light Rapid Transit Back On Tracks"), which would cost KRW 3.5 tn to a city already KRW 26 tn in the red (the government would foot 1.1 tn of the bill, leaving 3.9 tn to private investors), not counting yearly compensations for the operators. The Seoul Mayor is also suspected of outrageously flip-flopping on the issue in order to boost his ratings ahead of next year's elections: he cancelled 6 of the 7 lines initiated by his predecessor OH Se-hoon, and now he's pushing even further.

• In "Seoul City may halt free child care", we learn how Seoul Metropolitan City criticizes PARK Geun-hye's government for promoting a non-sustainable free child care program for all kids under 5. PARK Won-soon asks the government to raise its subsidies from 20 to 40% because unlike more demographically challenged regions, his financially challenged city has to cope with 408,000 of these little citizens. If he mentions the fact that 42% of them are raised in wealthy households (top 30% bracket), PARK Won-soon doesn't go all the way and say that 42% of these kids may not necessarily need a $180 check every month, because he himself was elected on a non-sustainable free meal program that contributes to the said deficit (reminder: ironically, OH Se-hoon was the one proposing the "leftist" model where the rich would pay for the poor - see "Welfare in Korea: the debate (or lack of)" 2012 and "Seoul free school lunch referendum (continued)" 2011).

But there's an awful lot to say about Seoul's new railway projects. We're Thursday and, as I just wrote this morning*, I haven't finished yet. So I'll post today the part about the big picture, and the one about the 10 Light Rail Transit projects will follow as soon as I can.

But first, my two cents about welfare.

*

1) On welfare:


Of course, that's just politics as usual. The Saenuri Party wants to claim back Seoul, and this free child care for all almost sounds like an ironic joke ("so you fancy universal freebies, uh?") at the expense of a man who could also become a serious menace for the 2017 presidential elections: elected as an independent, PARK Won-soon is now running for the DP, and leveraging Korea's most powerful local authority to multiply popular/populist initiatives, leaving his only potential rival to date AHN Cheol-soo very much isolated, with little political machinery around him, and little media coverage.

I already made my point about welfare state, the state of welfare, and the state of the debate on welfare in Korea. Again, PARK Won-soon must give up ideology and populism, embrace pragmatism, and among other things stop offering free meals to the wealthiest. And again, Saenuri and the governement must also give up their own ideology, populism and pharaonic pork-barrel projects, and among other things promote a sound and sustainable welfare system, and carry out the structural reforms needed to revive Korean demography (including in the education system...).

Unfortunately, reason remains most of the time a foreign word in Korean politics nowadays.

Significantly, in its revised Seoul Metropolitan Rapid Transit Master Plan**, the city is using the word "welfare" to qualify new railway projects. That's typical PARK Won-soon "human-centric-on-the-fringe-of-populism" lingua, but I do believe in public service, and in public transports as a fundamental right for metropolitan citizens. Besides, "welfare" and "fare well" are akin.

I'm not for or against anyone. I want Seoul, the region, and Korea as a whole to succeed and to invest wisely when it's still possible. And when I say "Korea as a whole", I mean both Koreas: the frontier is very close, and it won't remain closed forever.

At this moment, just like Korea has a welfare deficit, Seoul has a railway deficit, so if you ain't broke, fix it.

*

2) On the revised Seoul Metropolitan Rapid Transit Master Plan: yes, Seoul needs more railways...


10 years from now, all Seoulites shall live within a 10 min walk from a subway station. Or rather the overwhelming majority of Seoul citizens: the most remote parts of this mountainous city are not solely populated with Steve Austins, Jaime Sommerses, and other Usain Bolts.

The biggest gaping holes in the grid shall be significantly reduced (e.g. Seodaemun-gu, Geumcheon-gu, Northeast)

That's the ambitious target fixed in the revised Seoul Metropolitan Rapid Transit Master Plan** expected (in whose dreams?) to be validated next year by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport. Seoul will officially submit the plan in September.

Compared to earlier versions, the vision has been a bit simplified at the macro level and complexified at the micro level. I'll get into the details for the suggested improvements to the "broadband" backbone and Light Rail Transit projects, but one thing is sure: Seoul does need more railways.

If I already questioned the economic viability of the new light rail lines, I disagree with those who think that buses will solve everything. Even if the Seoul bus network is very efficient, railways mean high capacity and consistency, and they represent the main backbone for any metropolis, a core element of multimodal transportation systems aiming at reducing the use of cars and promoting public services and greener individual modes (pedestrians, cyclists...).

Clearly, Seoul is still lagging behind key rival capitals. Subways carry only 36% of Seoul passengers (28% take buses / 31% cars or taxis / 5% other), compared to 86% in Tokyo (1 / 11 / 2%), 65% in London (8 / 25 / 2%), and 58% in Paris (9 / 28 / 5%).

By extending its rail network to 441 km, Seoul expects to raise the share of public transport from 64 to 75%. Today, its 327 km-long network is only 15% longer than that of Paris, a city six times smaller:

City	Daily users (M)	Tot. rail netwk (km)	Subway (km)	Light Rail (km)	Street-car (km)	Mono-rail (km)	Netwk per citizen (km / M)
LONDON	3.210	464	402	34	28	-	67
PARIS	4.180	283	218	-	65	-	43
TOKYO	8.500	354	306	16	17	18	40
SEOUL	7.010	327	327	-	-	-	31

3) ... but the big picture could be improved


At the macro level, Seoul wants to beef up its "broadband" backbone, and to strengthten the 'Hanyang-Gangnam-Yeouido' triangle. "Hanyang", that's the original name of Seoul, a more poetic word than "downtown", and a wide area encompassing a significant number stations... except the one supposed to be Seoul's main hub: sorry, but Seoul Station is not located within fortress walls!

Anyway, here's the big picture:

This map shows us the three above mentioned hubs, and four colorful axes:

• The blue axis refers to the future Sinansan Line (Seoul Station-Ansan Jungang): Phase 1 (Yeouido-Gwangmyeong) is expected by 2019, and the rest (Seoul Station-Yeouido + Gwangmyeong-Jungang) by 2022. Seoul city doesn't need to change the program.

• The purple axis refers to the Sinbundang Line, which Seoul would like to extend all the way to the new Samsong District in Goyang via Gwanghwamun, a project that would also alleviate traffic congestion on Subway Line 3 and Tongil-ro. For the moment, only the Gangnam-Yongsan section of the extension is scheduled (Phase 3 - 2018, via Sinnonhyeon, Nonhyeon, Sinsa, Dongbinggo or Seobinggo, and Ichon). Where would they pass by after that? Seoul mentions a 19.7 km extension between Donbinggo and Samsong, and we've seen similar projects before (see for instance "3 subway lines projects revived ?", 2 years ago), but this time Pyeongchang-dong could be in the loop: both sides of Jahamun tunnel seem to be awarded a dot in the above "before-after" map, and the other day I saw banners urging local authorities to keep their promises and to deliver the long expected subway... Anyway, intense lobbying should rage everywhere and at all levels until the elections.

• The pink axis refers to the Suseo High Speed Railway (Suseo-Dongtan KTX - see "New KTX vertical to Gangnam by 2015" - NB: Suseo also in a Korea Train eXpress project to Pyeongtaek). Seoul wants a 30.4 km-long extension between Suseo and Uijeongbu via Cheongnyangni to create a Dongtan-Uijeongbu line. Note that this pink axis doesn't pass by any of the three hubs, which proves that the presentation needs some fixing.

• The green axis refers to the GTX Line B. Expected for September 2016, the Great Train eXpress project consists of 3 lines, each one about 45-50 km-long:
  - GTX Line A is in the general direction of the "purple axis" (Sinbundang): initially from KINTEX (Ilsan/Goyang) to Dongtan New Town (Hwaseong) via Daegok, Yeonsinnae, Seoul Station, Gangnam Station, and Suseo (NB: the Suseo-Dongtan part corresponds to the KTX, stretching the line to 74.8 km overall).
  - GTX Line C is in the general direction of the "pink axis" (KTX): from Geumjeong to Uijeongbu via Gwacheon, Yangjae, Gangnam, Cheongnyangni, and Changdong/Sanggye.
  - Seoul city focuses on the GTX Line B, initially planned from Cheongnyangni to Songdo via Seoul Station, Yongsan, Yeouido, Sindorim, Dangarae, Bupyeong, and Incheon City Hall. But only the Songdo-Dangarae-or-Sindorim section seemed secured. Seoul suggests to change course, and to draw a southern express line across Seoul from Dangarae to Jamsil (30.3 km), via Gangnam of course. Note that GTX is not just 3 times faster than a standard subway, it also has fewer stations, which would shrink a trip from the COEX to Ilsan from 83 to 22 min in case of Line A, or a Songdo-Jamsil from 112 to 39 min according to this newly suggested route.

Frankly, I'd like to see a different presentation. If we want to improve the whole system, we need to understand the situation and the dynamics, the challenges. We need to see several maps of Seoul and its sudogweon region with all existing road and railway networks, all the projects already in the pipe, the ones already in discussion, but also the mountains and valleys, the demographics, the fluxes by transportation modes, the hubs and nodes, the bottlenecks of today and tomorrow (e.g. New Towns)... We need to visualize the present and the future.

Before getting the recos for the rapid transit, we want a big picture of the dynamics, regardless of the transportation networks that enable them. There are too few elements in the document released last month about transports (Vision 2030), and not many maps, let alone relevant ones. If the  previous administration can be blamed for many things, it was much better at communicating a strategic vision and at drawing maps, for instance in this slide from the 2006-2010 plan (Vision 2020):

Of course this map is debatable too. But here, we know much more what's going on, and what the city has in mind. We also know that before thinking Songdo, Dongtan or Uijeongbu, Seoul thinks - as it should - Incheon, Daejeon, Chuncheon, or Pyeongyang (talking about the big picture and tomorrow challenges!). Furthermore, we visualize a much more relevant selection of main hubs: we're neither forgetting Yongsan, nor neglecting the considerable effort around Sangam-Susaek and Cheongnyangni-Wangsimni to boost Northwest and Northwest Seoul and relieve downtown bottlenecks at the same time.

So back to the drawing board. And more maps, please. I love maps.

*

See also the following 2 focus on all LRT projects:
"Seoul LRT Projects Update (Part 1/2)"
(the full list of 7+3+3 projects, the "3-Tailed Dragon")
"Seoul LRT Projects Update (Part 2/2)"
(all other projects)


*

* Well, I already did that Monday on Twitter, but with a constraint of 2x140 characters:



#ParkWonsoon wants fair free child care (same as what #OhSehoon wanted for free meal program ^^!)
(9:55 PM - 29 Jul 13 - twitter.com/theseoulvillage/status/361832451628216321)
#Seoul mayor #ParkWonsoon also flip-flopping regarding #OhSehoon's railway projects, according to @TheKoreaHerald
(9:58 PM - 29 Jul 13 - twitter.com/theseoulvillage/status/361833197744562177)

 

*

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* if writing "Yonsei-ro the first street in Seoul to ban cars in its transportation mix" contributed to the delay, it also paved some of the way ahead
** see "'서울 어디서나 도시철도 10분' - 철도 중심시대가 열립니다" (seoul.go.kr 20130725)

Sudogwon New Town Blues

I've not always been kind to Korean New Towns in general, and to doomed "greenfield" projects in the Incheon - Gyeonggi area in particular (see for instance "From urban mirages to urban decay", or "Wet eyes for wetlands and urban mirages"*), but today Korea JoongAng Daily didn't mince their words in this title: "Collapse of Incheon new town is end of era" (Korea JoongAng Daily 20130308).

The article was triggered by a decision from the Korean Ministry of Land, Transport and Maritime Affairs to strip part of Geomdan New Town from its New Town status, consequently allowing residents to follow new projects of their own. The journalist mentions other new towns struggling in the capital region (a.k.a Sudogwon = Seoul + Incheon + Gyeonggi-do): new ones - such as in Dongtan or Paju - as well as old darlings - Yongin and Bundang lost 22 and 25% of their value over the past 5 years.

The 10 projects listed in the article** are expected to deliver 613,000 apartments for 1.6 million people between 2001 and 2020. I think most dwellings have already been completed, but they only represent a portion of all Sudogwon new towns - the ones with national government support (for instance not a single one in Seoul, not Incheon's Songdo and Cheongna, not Gyeonggi-do's Namyangju and co...). And of course there's the competition from yet other new towns: property value in Sejong City jumped by almost 22% last year, compared to a disappointing 2.18% for Sudogwon, and net migration into Sudogwon nosedived from 209,000 people in 2002 to 8,000 in 2012. And of course, new towns themselves represent only a portion of all urban developments***.

By 2020, the population of Seoul Capital Area is expected to be the same as it is today, about 25.5 million souls. Of course, household structures do evolve, and change in North Korea could radically modify the equation, but again, you can't beat demographics, and this is a non-zero-sum game: even if, by miracle, all these New Towns were to succeed, some Older Towns would necessarily fail.

And again, this is "the end of an era, but not yet the end of the real estate dream"*. The "apateu = guaranteed jackpot" illusion is not completely dead, and new mirages keep popping up.

From the start, Geomdan New Town was not the sexiest project. And even downsized, it will struggle next to Gimpo New Town, a huge bed town recently delivered, and not very far from Magok District (see "Magok District: SIM City as in "Seoul Intra Muros"? Alleyways as in "Seoul Inter Muros"?"). Something's gotta give between all the residential projects, but also between their industrial sidekicks (over 2.2 M square meters for the new and improved Incheon Geomdan General Industrial Complex). Geomdan's New Town status was granted in October 2006, at the peak of the bubble, and many projects have been reconsidered in the years that followed, but I don't remember seing any strategic vision laid out regarding the big picture following the big collapse. Only more denial, and new non-vital projects specially designed to help friendly constructors keep busy and afloat.

Today's KJD article

At a time when financial products propose yields barely superior to inflation rates, Sejong City's +22% could sound sexy, but this project was a walking dead not so long ago, and remains subject to political hiccups. Furthermore, Sejong City demonstrated once more the limits of urban planning in Korean new towns: after lobbying against a KTX station that would have allowed many civil servants to commute to Seoul instead of settling down in the new adminstrative center, authorities are now complaining about the lack of connections with the capital.

Nothing new under the sun: I was flabbergasted to learn that the subway between the future Incheon International Airport and Seoul would be on purpose delayed until years after ICN's inauguration, just to spare cab drivers. And outraged to see how Pangyo had been designed against all elementary rules of urbanism****. I once discussed with Seoul urban planners about the need to take into account all the impacts of a new town (for instance on traffic) from the earliest stages of the conception of a project, instead of trying to catch up and fix things after the delivery, and they said it would be nice if directions could work together to make that happen... When they do exist, impact studies are seldom comprehensive, which shouldn't come as a surprise when structural decisions regarding pharaonic projects can be made and unmade on impulse, ahead of a last minute press conference.

Yesterday, George W. Bush was invited for a few hours in Seoul to boost some real estate project. One could have expected a more relevant anti-real-estate-bubble lucky charm for Korea.

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* I didn't spare Seoul new towns either, including in my 2011 essay "Inhuman, all too human Seoul":
One megapolis, a hundred villages, a thousand faces
1)The industry of a dream - the ideal city
- Industrial revolution of housing: from the virtuous cycle to the bubble
- From mass market products to fashion and services, from utopia to dystopia
2) Humans in transit
- Communities and shared spaces
- Life and survival of Seoul villages
3) The Ideal City 2.0 and new utopias
- The end of an era, but not yet the end of the real estate dream
- From "hard city" to "soft city"
- From New Town to Human Town, villages are back in favour
Conclusion

** Geomdan, Gimpo Hangang, Dongtan 1, Dongtan 2, Pyeongtaek Godeok, Gwanggyo, Pangyo, Wirye, Yangju, Paju Unjeong

*** Sign of the times: today, in the paper, there was a leaflet for an apartment block from the "premium" brand everybody fought for just years ago. Now the sales pitch highlights the fact that the price tag is KRW 250 M below that of the neighborhood, and there's even a coupon to claim a gift if you visit the model house...

**** see "Pangyo from scratch to crash". Note that even if Pangyo New Town is becoming a laughingstock for urbanists, wealthy investors keep purchasing land around it to build their private mansions, the latest fad for a flock that previously migrated from Hannam-dong to Apgujeong-dong to Bundang. They'll probably join the lobby pushing for a new airport East of Seoul, the perfect vehicle to boost land value back to pre-bubble levels in a distressed area.

New KTX vertical to Gangnam by 2015

Suseo Station has been confirmed as the terminus of the Suseo High Speed Railway (Suseo HSR), a KTX vertical line connecting Southwest Seoul with the main axis Seoul-Busan (Gyeongbu HSR) at Pyeongtaek.

Looking at this old map, covering the Northeastern quarter of the country seemed a priority, but Korail has recently improved the Gyeongchun Line (ITX connecting Chuncheon with Cheongnyangni, Seoul Station), and the Pyeongchang 2018 Olympics will KTXize and extend this horizontal axis ("KTX coast to coast Incheon-Gangneung"), even if it may not reach the East Sea for budgetary reasons. Furthermore, 40% of South Koreans live in Seoul or Gyeonggi-do.

So. Again. Ultraprivileged Gangnam-Bundang areas are blessed with major transport infrastructures: Suseo Station, which already connects Line 3 with Bundang Line, will become one of the Capital's biggest hubs.

Express Bus Terminal (Lines 3, 7, 9) may have to balance between the KTX stations of Yeongdeungpo (Line 9) and Suseo, whereas north of the Han river, the Seoul Station - Cheongnyangni horizontal axis looks much more simple, with both centers directly connected via Line 1.

Suseo HSR will connect with Gyeongbu HSR at a future Pyeongtaek Junction, north of Cheonan-Asan Station, with two stations in between:
- Jije Station in Jije-dong, Pyeongtaek (Line 1)
- Dongtan Station (New Dongtan City in Hwaseong)

Let's focus more on the other two winners of the deal:

• Dongtan new town is to cover about 24,000 square meters, and to propose 40,000 dwellings to an expected population of 120,000. But today, it is not directly on the subway map: Seodongtan Station is the sole station on a branchlet of Line 1.
• Among South Korea's biggest harbors and industrial complexes Pyeongtaek will soon add the US troops leaving Yongsan, Uijeongbu, and Dongducheon to an already impressive military hub comprising two USFK facilities.

The 61 km stretch will be inaugurated in 2015. 

Seoul Village 2012
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