One more job to finish

As expected*, YOON Suk-yeol's suicidal martial law folly resulted in his impeachment, and Korea democracy prevailed. Now the following steps are equally foreseeable: 

• PM HAN Duck-soo will act as interim president the time for the Supreme Court to confirm YOON's ousting**, 
• presidential elections will be held and crown a member of the opposition,
• as one of the only 3 PPP lawmakers who had the decency to take part in the first impeachment vote last Saturday, AHN Cheol-soo will once more run and fail to coalesce around a center that can't emerge in such an utterly divided nation. 
• the PPP itself will once more change names and fail to reform, plagued by self-destructive forces (hardcore ultra-conservatives, anti-feminists, bigots, K-MAGA conspiracy theorists...)
  

The only question that matters now is will LEE Jae-myung manage to pull a Trump and succeed in eluding justice and accountability all the way to the elections?

YOON's political suicide gave him a unique opportunity to pose as a hero and gain global attention, even if few international media mentioned LEE's darker sides (let's put that on the demonstration dopamine and the euphoria of witnessing history, if not on fixers who don't always share the same journalistic standards).

The fact that YOON Suk-yeol deserves impeachment doesn't mean LEE Jae-myung doesn't deserve to be judged.

The fact that the LEE Jun-seok and Co. are appalling anti-feminists doesn't mean LEE Jae-myung shouldn't be criticized for labeling his nephew's double femicide as mere 'dating violence'. 

The fact that the PPP must reform and purge itself of rotten apples doesn't mean the DP doesn't have to do the same.

Korea can't afford yet another disappointment. 

Following PARK Geun-hye's impeachment, we've seen two presidents elected to restore justice but failing on their core mission: MOON Jae-in by betraying the memory of ROH Moo-hyun and perverting the balance of power and justice, and YOON Suk-yeol by betraying his promise through double standards for justice and the nation through an outrageous martial law.

If Korea proved once again that it remains a vibrant democracy, it has at least one more job to finish.

'#YoonSukyeol 2nd #impeachment vote starting with floor leader #ParkChandae's speech.' (seoulvillage.bsky.social/post/3ldaqxeojwc2k - 20241214) - The eventual score was 204 yes, 85 no, 3 abstentions, 8 invalid.

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* see "Double Feature Night: '12.3 The Day' + 'The President's Last (going with a) Bang'"

** the opposition may try to impeach HAN in order to put its assembly speaker WOO Won-sik in his shoes, but shan't get a 2/3 vote. Removing the last resistance to LEE Jae-myung in the justice system could prove much easier, but would retrospectively prove YOON right on one of the justifications he used for his appalling martial law.

YSY does it?

Every five year, I have the same dream: that Korea switches to a two-round system for its presidential elections, which would not only reflect more accurately the diversity of opinions, but also result in mergers much more transparent, fair, and based on policies. But no. As usual, we witnessed last minute, winner-takes-all mergers between individuals. And as usual, the dozen-plus roster boiled down to two heavyweights snatching 95% of the cake. 

I wish SIM Sang-jun had raised the issue during her otherwise perfect concession speech. She did claim 800k votes and AHN Cheol-soo at least one third of that even without running (judging by the 300k invalid votes due to last minute withdrawals), but both would have scored much much higher otherwise, forcing main candidates to move closer to the center before the second round.

If none of the polls that followed the YOON-AHN alliance* were made public because they were too close to the elections, they all put the opposition candidate ahead by two to seven points. Yet YOON eventually finished only less than 250k votes ahead of LEE - less than what he gained in Seoul alone:

The capital city confirmed its 2021 rejection of a ruling party that lost not only key strongholds there, but also 4 of the 5 assembly seats in play nationwide on the same election night (by a much wider margin than for the presidential election).

Absolutely not Trumpian on that one, LEE Jae-myung conceded very gracefully. He would have had a difficult time trying to contest the score after the troubling incidents in Seoul, Gyeonggi-do, or Jeju-do that cast serious doubts about electoral integrity. The nation could even have faced a major crisis if LEE had won very narrowly. MOON Jae-in and the controversial head of the National Election Commission NOH Jeong-hee did apologize for the 'incidents', but they involved officials who had to be more than aware of the existential threat their behavior represented for democracy, and they looked disturbingly consistent with the extreme episodes witnessed during the administration's attacks on justice.

Hopefully, this closer than expected final gap was mainly due to the ruling party's last ditch mobilization of its formidable turnout machine combined with a weakened motivation on the other side: AHN guaranteed YOON's win, why vote for such an uninspiring candidate?

By all means, YOON Suk-yeol, a reluctant politician, was not a good candidate. And he was far from always a candidate for good.

I disagree with many elements of the candidate's program, but I want him to deliver the goods on one key front: democracy, justice, the constitution.

Korea needs the YOON who, as a student under the dictatorship, led a trial of CHUN Doo-hwan.

Korea needs the YOON who, in 2013, was suspended for refusing to stop investigating the meddling of LEE Myung-bak's secret services into the 2012 presidential elections.

Korea needs the YOON who joined the team that prosecuted PARK Geun-hye.

Korea needs the YOON MOON Jae-in handpicked as his Eliot Ness to lead the nation prosecutors and justice reform, and who said no when MOON told him to stop investigating Cho Kuk or Cheong Wa Dae corruption.

Korea needs the YOON whom both the extreme left and the extreme right hate. 

And that YOON would better show up. Five years ago**, Korea needed the MOON who stood for democracy, and ended up with another one who undermined it. This divided nation can't afford another betrayal.

YOON's one mission as a candidate was to kick the ruling party out of Cheong Wa Dae, and that will be done when the transition is over. As a president-elect, his mission will be to gather a team that can inspire voters for the upcoming legislative elections, but also reach across the aisle, to moderates among a hostile assembly. 

Very transparent about his lack of experience as a politician, the man has a reputation to delegate a lot, to let pros do their job, and to take full responsibility. YSY does it. So casting will be key.

Candidate YOON needed the People Power Party to run and AHN Cheol-soo to win, President YOON simply can't succeed with the PPP platform. And clearly, there's no way he can unite the nation if he keeps including LEE Jun-seok's anti-feminist agenda. Ideally, that young lad should be the first one to be shown the door, and AHN Cheol-soo should lead the transition team.

I'm not forgetting another essential role of the President: representing and defending the nation in these very troubled times. And Russia's invasion of Ukraine already impacted the campaign and the region:

• not very good news for a nuclear-free peninsula: another motive for North Korea to keep its weaponry, another motive for South Korea to revive its civil program (MOON Jae-in even had the gall to say the nuclear energy he's been dismantling for years was strategic for the nation's future....)
• not very good news for Yankees-Go-Home cheerleaders: while LEE Jae-myung struggled with his base, YOON Suk-yeol could herald the alliance full throttle. Joe Biden didn't even wait for concession or acceptance speeches to congratulate his preferred (and fellow gaffe-a-day) candidate.
• not very good news for XI Jinping's plans to invade Taiwan. And now he knows bullies can be bullied. XI has yet to congratulate a man who made no mystery about where he stands between the US and China.
• good news for the Korea-Japan dialog: YOON sent clear, positive signals. Let's hope his sense of justice will make him nonetheless stand for the last survivors of Imperial Japan's sexual slavery system, who can't wait for another term.
  

Tensions are likely to exacerbate in the region because of Putin's war, but much of the ambiguity will be gone, which may paradoxically be helpful for some meaningful diplomacy (including why not with North Korea). Interesting to see how existing and new alliances evolve or take shape.

On all fronts, please, more pragmatism and common sense, less ideology (yes, that includes you, Milton Friedman).

Please, more transparency, more accountability.

As usual, I'll be keeping a critical eye on the rulers. With cautious hope.

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* see "AHN Cheol-soo joins YOON Suk-yeol"

** see "A new MOON Jae-in?"  

AHN Cheol-soo joins YOON Suk-yeol

Last night, following the last presidential debate, AHN Cheol-soo decided to stop his campaign and give his full support to YOON Suk-yeol. Expected almost from the start*, this move was postponed until the last possible moment to mark AHN's ballot papers, even if voting has already started overseas.

"Ahn Cheol-soo and Yoon Seok-youl in joint presser to announce campaign merger" (20220303 - twitter.com/theseoulvillage/status/1499159949062017025 @theSeoulVillage)

AhnLab founder lifts YOON's candidacy on such key issues as innovation, economy, education, or health. Mostly, he brings guarantees about his capacity to unite around the center, and to mobilize younger generations.

A reluctant candidate and a mediocre campaigner, YOON hesitated a long time before joining the PPP, an irrelevant opposition party where he had to compose with obsolete paleo-conservatives on one extreme and aggressive young anti-feminists on the other: PARK Geun-hye supporters never forgave him his role in her imprisonment, and LEE Jun-seok excels at dragging his candidacy down. Today, YOON was obviously relieved to see AHN unlock the shackles and help him focus on what matters most to him: healing Korean democracy, starting with justice.

The first mission of the united ticket is to prevent LEE Jae-myung from reaching power. Protected by the government, the controversial populist was able to cruise during the campaign without fear of being investigated in the Daejang-dong scandal. And if the family of the women murdered by his nephew (whom he defended during the trial) sued him for dismissing the double murder as 'dating violence', this most Trumpian character played the clock by delaying his answers to the judge beyond the legal limits, pushing the next steps until after the elections. 

Imagine what this man could do if he reached presidency and enjoyed the total impunity created by the ruling party's most outrageous reform: the de facto end of oversight of the executive power and the creation of the highly controversial Corruption Investigation Office, which was instantly weaponized to harass YOON and to protect Cheong Wa Dae from embarrassing scandals.

On that one, MOON clearly insulted ROH Moo-hyun's memory: the late president, a man who genuinely cared for democracy and justice, would have been appalled by a move that also betrayed the spirit of 2016, when the population overwhelmingly called for a defense of both, and the respect of separation of powers.

Beyond LEE and Trump, I often make a parallel between Korea's ruling party and the US Republican party. Both have lost their way on what used to make them most respectable. Both need to lose in 2022 if they don't want to lose their souls. And both need to humbly return to the drawing board (preferably not to push for more gerrymandering or deceitful schemes).

It may sound indecent to talk about existential threat when thousands die in Ukraine under Russian aggression, but this time, Korea must get it right, and heal from its core. And its center.

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* and not even one year after AHN's merger with OH Se-hoon ("After OH Se-hoon's Hangang Renaissance, Who In 2022?")

After OH Se-hoon's Hangang Renaissance, Who In 2022?

If both Seoul and Busan delivered landslide victories to PPP candidates, yesterday's by-elections were less a conservative triumph than a crushing defeat for the ruling party, and a double-edged sword win for moderates between two much more consequential votes.

Here's the score:

• Busan: PARK Hyun-joon (PPP) 63% - KIM Young-choon (DP) 34%
• Seoul: OH Se-hoon (PPP) 57.5% - PARK Young-sun (DP) 39%
• Both winners claimed 100% of the districts*.
   
  

OH Se-hoon campaigning in Sinchon on April 6 (photo S.M.)

PARK and OH offered rather humble acceptance speeches out of respect for the context and the expectations of voters, but also in sharp contrast with the ruling party who, last year, interpreted their landslide win at the 2020 legislative elections as, instead of a referendum on the handling of the pandemic, an absolute mandate for the very reforms that, under normal circumstances, should have led to their defeat:

• They not only kept undermining the separation of powers in the name of justice reform, but prolonged the CHO Kuk scandals with the CHOO Mi-ae and YOO Mee-yang scandals... They even managed to create, all by themselves, their strongest presidential challenger to date: YOON Suk-yeol.
• They not only pushed even further suicidal real estate reforms that kept crushing the middle class and leading have-nots to have even less, but also got entangled in the LH scandals.
  

No wonder even the inept, irrelevant PPP could defeat this embarrassing crew. Yet conservatives shouldn't make the same mistake as the DP, and believe or claim that conservatism won. It's a democratic, centrist alliance that made all the difference. And what Korea wants, what Korea needs now is neither an ideological, stubborn conservative rule, nor a ideological, stubborn left, but a pragmatic, moderate, centrist, uniting leadership**. 

Actually, conservatives lost the PPP primaries when center-right OH Se-hoon defeated NA Kyung-won. And the pact OH cemented with AHN Cheol-soo (who won the centrist primaries against  KEUM Tae-sup) worked perfectly: they wrapped up their poll-based primaries right on time, and campaigned together in a rare display of political fair play.

Centrist leader AHN Cheol-soo and weather vane kingmaker KIM Chong-in on stage in Sinchon, campaigning for OH Se-hoon on the eve of the 4.7 elections (photos S.M.)

When announced the winner yesterday on TV, OH Se-hoon was obviously very moved, and remained seated for a few seconds. Probably thinking about the miscalculation that cost him his job ten years ago, when he put it in the balance for an unnecessary referendum on school lunches (ironically, the left won by campaigning against a measure of social justice usually pushed by socialist parties - only the rich pay for it)***. Maybe remembering his exile in Kingali and Lima, his failed political return five years ago (see "OH Se-hoon returns... but did he ever leave?").  Certainly reflecting about how, just weeks ago, he was still an underdog...

Bumped into #Seoul candidate #OhSehoon in #Sinchon...#서울 #신촌 #오세훈 pic.twitter.com/aXHzXLSCzw

— Seoul Village (@theseoulvillage) April 6, 2021

Now OH looks ideally positioned for the 2027 presidential elections, except for the fact that he is once more facing a hostile majority at the Seoul metropolitan council. He only won the job for 15 months (the remainder of PARK Won-soon's mandate), and will have to campaign again next year with little chance to bring significant change in between: even before the elections, LEE Nak-yon let everybody know that his party would obstruct his every move... LEE's dumb statement immediately backfired but anyway, after yesterday's debacle, the ruling party's former front-runner doesn't stand any chance for 2022's main prize: Cheong Wa Dae.

Who will win next year's presidential elections? 

If the PPP learns the lessons from Seoul, they will try to further evolve, and build a big tent reaching for the center and YOON Suk-yeol, whom AHN Cheol-soo has already been rooting for. A PPP momentum means less room for a fully independent candidate. I'm not sure the former top prosecutor will want to run, but this liberal certainly won't do it under a very conservative banner.

The ruling party will probably try to perform some cosmetic changes and bring new faces, but they have to abandon the anti-democracy path they've chosen recently, and preferably with a better candidate than a Trump-style populist like LEE Jae-myung. He could win, but then Korea would lose.

Whatever The Future brings, this being Korea, we shall be hearing some more about real estate during the campaign...

'WTF. Seoul election results by... subway lines and stations!!! Actually quite entertaining. Oh Se-hoon. Park Young-sun' (@theSeoulVillage - 20210407 - twitter.com/theseoulvillage/status/1379795550023774213)

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* Beyond Seoul's 25 'gu', OH even won every single 'dong' / neighborhood, except 3:

• Seongsan 1-dong (Mapo-gu) by 168 votes
  
• Hwagok 8-dong (Gangseo-gu) by 309 votes
  
• Guro 3-dong (Guro-gu) by 863 votes. 

** I should add 'inclusive', because that's also what Korea needs. But not yet what Korea wants. OH Tae-yang, the first openly LGBT candidate for Seoul mayor, finished 9th out of 12 with 6,483 votes (0.13%). That's a first step, but Korean politics remain overwhelmingly homophobic.

*** In case you forgot, the referendum that caused OH Se-hoon his job, and the scandal that hit his rival KWAK No-hyun right afterwards, opening a path for a very lucky PARK Won-soon: "Seoul free school lunch referendum (continued)" (20110612), "In memoriam OH Se-hoon" (20110824), "Kwak's "gros couac" (20110830)

Chaebolplex v. Indie Movies - The Sequel

According to KOFIC / KOBIZ, Korea's 2,870 movie screens recorded almost 220 M admissions last year, a 49% increase in ten years. That's enough to take over (30% more populated) France, where admissions gained only 11% over the same period, from 190 to 209 M. Korean and Foreign films have basically maintained their positions on the market: around 50/50 for the number of admissions, 28/72 for the number of films released, knowing that the biggest blockbusters tend to be local (only Avatar appears in the all time top ten, as #3).

The number of movies released exploded (from 380 to 1,765), which is not a guarantee for quality, but an encouraging sign for culture diversity*. Indeed, the big 'chaebolplexes' that control the market have at long last started to propose independent movies.

Which doesn't mean that Korea's indie movie ecosystem is better off.

When six years ago, chaebolplexes were forced to feature them following the 'Pieta' scandal, I worried that they would struggle to kick their bad, closed circuit habits (see "Saving Korean cinema... and even Chaebolplex"), and that's pretty much what happened.

Just a few significant events that followed the 2012 'Pieta Law':
- 2013: ten indie movie producers pool their efforts to create Little Big Pictures
- 2014: CJ Group launches CGV Arthouse (chaebolplexes create their own 'indie' theaters)
- 2015: it gets political when AHN Cheol-soo brings the spotlight on the cause, and indies push for laws similar to the 1948 Paramount Decree (the "antitrust case that ruled against big movie studios operating their own movie theaters"**)
- 2016: Netflix launches in Korea
- 2017: produced by Netflix, BONG Joon-ho's 'Okja' is boycotted by Korea's biggest theater operators
- 2018: IPTV takes over cable TV as main provider, controlled by the Big 3 (KT, SKT, LGU+), and 'chaebolplex' snatch exclusivities for indie movies away from 'independent art houses', even for re-runs.***

How can indie theaters survive, or compete with lavish complexes that in terms of diversity, contribute essentially to one of chaebolplex's core business models: real estate. There are so much new complexes Seoul can host, and the 'art house' alibi provides a perfect 'alternative' offer to developments that target culture-friendly elites.

Institutions like Seoul Cinema or Indie Space embody the resistance, but for how long?

'Smells like Seoul Cinema spirit' (20180517 - www.instagram.com/p/Bi4AYl9ll7H/?taken-by=stephanemot)

'not sure the one in the middle will be featured in a chaebolplex' (20121213 - twitter.com/theseoulvillage/status/279079561419960320)

• follow our #chaebolplex hashtag on Twitter

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* on this issue, read " Heralding cultural diversity - a stronger and more sustainable Korean wave" (2013)
** "South Korea’s Chaebol-sized Movie Problem"  (WSJ 20150130)
*** "Art house cinemas lose their exclusivity : As more indie films are screened at theater chains, smaller venues suffer losses" (KJD 20180706)

Gwanghwamun Square Enters Third Dimension

Seoul Metropolitan Government and the Cultural Heritage Administration unveiled yesterday their plans for a 'New Gwanghwamun Square' by 2021, and they came up with a weird 'solution' for the potential traffic conundrum I mentioned four years ago, when the project started taking a clearer shape (see "Gwanghwamun, Donhwamun, and the Tale of two Royal Roads").

Gwanghwamun Square 3.0 - the royal Sejongno-Gwanghwamun-Gyeongbokgung-Cheong Wa Dae-Bugaksan-Bukhansan perspective

This modification of Seoul's most defining center has potentially even greater consequences than the previous one, which we followed step by step a decade ago. I will as usual focus on the urbanistic impacts (passing by many familiar spots), but since this is also about Korea's center of power ever since its capital was founded, I'd better start with some political context.

It's the politics, stupid?

Such a project deserves to be carried by both the local (SMG) and national (CHA) governments, and PARK Won-soon as well as MOON Jae-in happen to have a special bond with a site where PARK Geun-hye started and ended her presidency.

Started? If we all remember the massive, peaceful demonstrations that led to PGH's destitution, who could possibly forget that kitschissime wishtree** on Gwanghwamun Square, her first symbolic stop on her way to Cheong Wa Dae?

During his own campaign, MOON Jae-in pledged to move the presidential offices from Cheong Wa Dae to Sejongno, and the presidential residence closer to Gwanghwamun, in order to cleanse the feet of Bugaksan, and to honor the place where democracy took a stand and won. MOON also picked Gwanghwamun Square to celebrate his victory.

Retrospectively, I shudder when I remember AHN Hee-jung's over-the-top cheering that night - back then, I didn't know he couldn't even control his darkest pulsions... anyway, his DSK / #metoo moment completely revived the ambitions of a man who tried to steal the show on the very same night.

Only weeks ago, PARK Won-soon was clearly out of the game for the 2022 presidential elections, and about to be dumped by his own party for the upcoming mayoral elections (June 2018). Now he's leading the polls by far (against WOO Sang-ho and PARK Young-sun for the primaries, and against AHN Cheol-soo and KIM Moon-soo beyond), and this new project looks like the ideal platform for both ballots: he can make a splash in 2018 on the very site that boosted his predecessor's reelection***, and deliver the goods just months before 2022. Of course, PWS already combined a major urban project with a major political event before, but PGH's impeachment derailed Seoullo 7017's perfect timing ahead of the 2017 elections (see "Seoullo 7017, and more roads to Seoul").

Now is the right moment to communicate a grand scheme and vision, big enough to mask PARK's most recent shortcomings: he barely managed to avoid criticism for Seoul's waste management crisis by sending deputies to face the media, and he let his rival WOO preempt the usually well coveted 'public transportation' territory by campaigning on a new metropolitan authority, including yet another revival of the key Seobuseon project (after 2013, when "Seobu Line confirmed as Seoul's LRT top priority", the city dropped the ball once again).

So yes, it's about politics. But regardless of this context, Gwanghwamun Square and its surroundings needed a fix.

3.7 times bigger, 3.7 times better?

So what's the plan? Basically, the pedestrian zone grows not only, as expected, to the West and along nearby streets, but also right in front of the gate, making the road map much more complex, what I dubbed Seoul's 'Royal T'**** turning into a Y:

Seoul also revived its old ambition to restore Baekundongcheon, Cheonggyecheon's main source, the diagonal still visible on today's map (see "Baekundongcheon / Gwanghwamun-gil - A River Runs Through It"*****).

Seoul city advertises about the 3.7 factor by which pedestrian surface booms from 18,840 m2 to 69,300 m2, the reduction of traffic lanes to 6 along Sejong-daero, and its renewed demands to the State for a GTX extension to Gwanghwamun.

All this sounds very positive and environment friendly, but no really new green spaces are planned, and the extended square might make Summers and Winters even more merciless in what looks more like Tiananmen Square, or the barren landing site that preceded Yeouido Park.

There are still no dedicated lanes for buses or bicycles, and buses shall be redirected South, which seems recipe for disaster for public transportation around downtown Seoul, particularly since the new road map deprives Sajik-ro 8-gil (formerly Naejadong-gil) from its role of main NS/EW dispatcher.

Compared to Gwanghwamun 2.0, the 2009 revolution that brought pedestrians back to the heart of the capital, this Gwanghwamun 3.0 adds only marginal change to their experience. I like the idea of restoring the 'parvis' in front of Gwanghwamun, the Eastern pavillions and hanok around a 'History Square' that could liven up the walk from Seochon to Bukchon... but pushing traffic further downtown, and adding new bottlenecks to already saturated axes does seem like a big price to pay. 

Unfortunately, like with Seoullo, impact surveys have obviously been eluded in a race to meet electoral deadlines, and authorities chose to worsen traffic situations by not tackling them. Even the curve of the new road following the back of the central government building (that by the way shouldn't be on that History Square) tells about quick and dirty fixes without consideration for the big picture.

What Seoul needed was a consistent vision and plan to prepare its whole historic center Sadeamun (intra muros) for a driverless future. What Seoul delivered was a dangerously incomplete, short-sighted, ill-prepared PR stunt.

The city will take one year to select a proposal, start work in January 2020, and finish by EOY 2021. Mayor PARK missed by a few months last time, and 2021 seems safe enough a goal for him to inauguration the new (if not improved) Gwanghwamun Square. 

I sincerely hope he'll reconsider this plan, and grow some ambition for our city.

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* see "The Anipang Election: Park wins big, but who won?"
** see "Park 2 Day 1 in pictures"
*** will OH Se-hoon rise again (on billboards, at least - see "OH Se-hoon returns... but did he ever leave?")
**** see "Inwangsan's Great Wall and Seoul's Royal "T" Time"
***** note that since my 2009 focus, the streets West of Sejong-daero have been renamed Saemunan-ro 9-gil and Saemunan-ro 5ga-gil. Seoul also renewed the project of highlighting walls around Sajik-dan and Sajik-park.

A new MOON Jae-in?

As expected, MOON Jae-in claimed Cheong Wa Dae with a very comfortable margin even without gaining ground beyond his base, and AHN Cheol-soo failed to hold the center.

As feared, the embarrassingly extreme HONG Jun-pyo finished second, confirming how the ultra-hardcore-conservative line remains a strong political force in the country. YOO Seong-min fought with honor, but reformers need a more charismatic leader to prevail, and to save the right.

To the left, SIM Sang-jung made her case with brilliance and humor, and her moderate voice is more likely to be heard and to bring positive change in the future than the usual radical activists.

In general and except for HONG, the debate was more gentle. This could continue even further with people like AHN Hee-jung.

Now Korea truly needs to move away from polarized politics, and the new president will have to show the way, to foster innovation across politics, society, and the economy. Dialog and innovation being not MOON's forte, he will have to evolve, and to surround himself with not just the old farts he promised jobs in the administration.

Here's how I concluded a piece I wrote last week for Asialyst ("Corée du Sud : la politique reprend ses vieilles habitudes"):

"The winner of the election will be judged by his capacity to revive the economy and to defend the nation in front of rather peculiar characters (Kim Jong-un, Xi Jinping, Shinzo Abe, Donald Trump, Vladimir Poutine…), but also and mostly to reunify South Korea with itself by leveraging last Winter's formidable democratic movement.

If elected, Moon will have to become the uniter he has yet to prove he can be. This majority-less assembly seems a rather sound base to prevent the usual pendulum swings. After all, this assembly already proved it could successfully work in a president-free nation, reaching consensuses on issues as tricky as budget or the impeachment process.

Which brings us back to the core debate initiated during the 'Miracle of The Han People': we can't wait until the 2020 parlementary elections to advance on key issues demanding cool heads, like the revision of the Constitution, or the eradication of corruption in the judiciary system.

It would also be a good opportunity to push an idea that is not yet on the agenda, but would considerably strenghten democracy and depollute this great quinquennal show: switching to a two-round presidential election."

Last time I saw MOON on Gwanghwamun Square was under sadder circumstances (ROH Moo-hyun funeral in 2009 - "A Yellow Sea for Roh Moo-hyun")

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All options on the table

Many Korean correspondents in DC have recently shared their highest fears ever over risks of war in the Peninsula, and we can only hope that Donald TRUMP's new envoy to Korea, USS Carl Vinson, won't have to grow more talkative than 'Elusivarus Rex' Rex TILLERSON...

All options are on the table

On one hand, it's scary enough to see this short-fused POTUS pull out a new deadly toy in the region just days after striking Syria...

'The Hustler? XI Jinping not comfortable with Trump's 8 ball Syria-North Korea combo (KIM Jong-un unhappy with Syria strikes) - Heng cartoon' (20170410 - twitter.com/theseoulvillage/status/851233905646555140)

... On the other hand, the US can't find comfort in the fact that the DPRK's ICBMs needs some more time to reach its mainland: KIM Jong-un proved that he could already strike with precision all the US bases in the region, giving its forces a decisive head start when the gimchi hits the fan.

And I feel just a bit less worried now that Steve BANNON will get fewer chances to chime in where it matters most:

Steve BANNON can't always control himself. Please don't let him walk again.

Of course, all this happens less than a month before the elections in South Korea, where victory seems granted to either the untested AHN Cheol-soo, or the divisive MOON Jae-in. Can the former resist G2 pressure (Trump-Xi)? Can the latter be harder than tofu against KJU?

For the moment, even if all options are on the table here as well, MOON confirms that he can't build trust beyond his own base, and that his easiest path to victory lies in the emergence of small candidates dividing the votes. 

AHN Hee-jung trapped in unwinnable primaries and refocusing on 2022, and conservatives failing to find a champion, Cheol-soo quickly and effortlessly gathered across the aisle the Anyone-But-Moon front, and toughened up enough to show that this time he will go all the way. Recent polls give him the lead in both 5 and 6 candidates scenarii:

'For the first time, a poll with 6 candidates shows AHN Cheol-soo ahead of MOON Jae-in (Chosun Ilbo). Later still can't reach beyond own base' (20170409 - twitter.com/theseoulvillage/status/851043736951824384)
'Yonhap-KBS poll with 5 candidates confirms AHN Cheol-soo's lead over MOON Jae-in. <20 a="" href="http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/news/2017/04/09/0200000000AEN20170409003900315.html" no="" regional="" rifts="" target="_blank" undecided="">english.yonhapnews.co.kr/news/2017/04/09/0200000000AEN20170409003900315.html' (20170410 - twitter.com/theseoulvillage/status/851227886631624704)

For the moment, HONG Jun-pyo, SIM Sang-jung, and YOO Seong-min don't syphon many votes out of the AHN wave. As he focuses on attacking MOON, KIM Chong-in could become more audible, but he doesn't represent the future either.

Interesting to see the latest poll* in detail:
- the traditional age rifts diminish (the younger generation still favor MOON, but less than before, and 'only' until 50)
- the traditional regional rifts seems less relevant (AHN leads in Jeolla-do - where he claimed many seats - and Gwangju as well as in conservative strongholds - Daegu and Gyeongsang-do rally behind him)
- fewer than 20% remain undecided

It will be more about character and issues than ideology. So get ready for April surprises.

A positive April surprise would be the arrest of WOO Byung-woo. Korean justice needs to be purged from its enemies from within, but compromission is so pervasive that many could fall, and one can wonder if judges and prosecutors will have the courage to open Pandora's box. 

Still better than a nuclear explosion. And as the myth goes, hope appears only after all evils have been released from the box. 

But as the percentage of judges who keep heading for the same friendly structures after retirement tells us, the capacity to achieve total success looks like the ultimate myth.


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* "Ahn beats Moon for first time in hypothetical five-way race: poll" (Yonhap News 20170410)

AHN Hee-jung joins the fray

Frankly, there is no way out of impeachment for PARK Geun-hye - the sole story about that blacklist of artists should suffice to seal her fate. Now she's just trying to delay the process, wishing her judges were about to retire. 

Meanwhile, her partner in crime CHOI Soon-sil keeps denying the obvious, and pushing arrogance to new levels. The way she counterattacked her prosecutors by demanding proofs and testimonies, you'd believe she knows in which Thai river she had KO Young-tae's remains fed to the fishes.

"Dirty sleep", an art work featured in a special 'freedom of expression' exhibition at the National Assembly hall: PARK Geun-hye sleeps as the Sewol sinks, and CHOI Soon-sil provides syringes - 20170123 Chosun Ilbo "국회 의원회관에 '나체 상태의 박근혜 대통령' 그림 논란"

Again, let's hope justice will prevail (see "Of power vacua and excesses").

Now the question remains who's next in South Korea's doomest office (after acting prez HWANG Kyo-ahn), and in that regard, recent days have brought interesting developments: BAN Ki-moon has totally screwed up his return to Korea, LEE Jae-myung confirmed his candidacy, and AHN Hee-jung pulled out a perfect launch. Can MOON Jae-in maintain his lead until late Spring?

To sum it up: 

1) Korea needs a uniting, moderate, ideology-free leader to leverage on the formidable grassroot movement that saw 96% of the population stand up for democracy.

2) The political landscape is ultra-fragmented: Saenuri completely imploded around pro/anti-Park lines, and rivalries mar the opposition.

3) Two heavyweights lead in the polls, but fail to convince a majority. 

4) MOON Jae-in struggles to pass for a uniter after having embodied systematic opposition for years, and bullied AHN Cheol-soo out of the 2012 race. He's in Hillary's position: the best chance to win on paper, but a jaded politician, and a disliked favorite.

5) BAN Ki-moon had the resume: the UN international aura, ROH Moo-hyun-friendly enough to please the Left, conservative and reform-averse enough to please the Right, a soft spoken gentleman old enough to play the role of the benevolent patriarch of the nation..., but if he shined as a minister, BAN never proved his prowess in the driver's seat, and from the start he let his campaign be hijacked by a Dark Side of the Force desperate to find a leader following PGH's collapse. He had the ideal profile to reach from the center across the aisles, but it will be hard for him to claim the 96% after a week where he distinguished himself by calling PARK Geun-hye and meeting LEE Myung-bak.

6) If LEE Jae-myung gained momentum during the mass demonstrations, his controversial, Trump-style temperament undermines his candidacy. Should he leave the leading trio by the end of next month, his chances would be very slim.

7) It seems that whatever PARK Won-soon says or does, he can't rise in the polls. The Seoul mayor positioned himself as a reformer and an innovator, and counts on the inauguration of Seoul Station 7017 to feed the buzz, but his craze for media attention, very efficient at the local and international levels, tends to backfire at the national level.

8) The third man could turn out to be a different AHN than last time: AHN Cheol-soo did build a political base, but the democratic tsunami reshuffled the whole deck, and ACS is not as inspiring as he initially looked. AHN Hee-jung starts apparently without any base, but he's perfectly leveraging that freedom, and judging by its PR campaign and his no-nonsense, anti-populist positions, he can claim both conservatives and reformers. A convincing interview with Chosun Ilbo, followed by a praising editorial from Maeil Business Newspaper the day before he announced, and he put himself at the center of the map, making LEE Jae-myung's announcement almost inaudible.

As MOON Jae-in flies, BAN Ki-moon stagnates, and the LEE Jae-myung bubble deflates, AHN Hee-jung gains positive reviews for his Chosun interview - 20170122 - twitter.com/theseoulvillage/status/822980039536820224)

If by end of February, polls show AHN Hee-jung closer to - or even part of - the top 3, he stands a clear chance. The weeks to come will clearly test MOON's grip on the lead, and BAN's capacity to reset his campaign.


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