Seoul Village Season XVIII

(*NB I was finishing this post when I learned about the Assassination attempt on LEE Jae-myung in Busan - I decided not to alter what I wrote below)

Even if it will only start on February 10 with the lunar new year, happy Year of the Blue Dragon.

We can't tell which flames 2024 will throw at us, but let's wish we won't get too much sabre-rattling from the North (3G KIM Jong-un? 4G KIM Ju-ae a.k.a. Joseon's Morning Star General?), the South (Taiwan strait, East China Sea?). the West (a third front after Eastern Europe and the Middle East?). or even the East (so far, Fumio KISHIDA plays it much smarter and more efficiently than fellow Nippon Kaigi predecessor Shinzo ABE to restore the lobby's Imperial Japan revival dreams).

We know for sure that the new year will bring us critical elections in Korea (April 10) and the US (November 5), and that in both cases, the key issue remains 'will moderate at last manage to get rid of controversial figures that have been undermining democracy and their own parties for years?'

A return of Donald TRUMP would undoubtedly weaken US presence in the region and jeopardize South Korea's security. The lack of courage of moderates within GOP ranks leaves the job of removing this cancer to judges, and should TRUMP make it all the way to the RNC, he would face a struggling Joe BIDEN and get the support of a third candidate likely to siphon a lot of ballots off the incumbent (the inept Robert F. KENNEDY Jr only runs on his name and Republican funds).

Korea can't seem to remove its own destructive cells from both ends of the spectrum, but at least there are signs that moderates are starting to realize that their parties have no future with people like LEE Jun-seok on the right and LEE Jae-myung on the left*. 

Toxic anti-feminist LEE Jun-seok is threatening to found his own party ahead of the elections, and contributed to discourage IHN Yohan/ John LINTON and his short-lived innovation committee supposed to reform an irrelevant PPP.

Korea's own TRUMP, LEE Jae-myung, resists all demands to quit as DP head - like the 45th US president, he only cares about himself and eluding jail. His party courageously accepted to end his impunity but justice, crippled as much as the police by the controversial reforms of YOON Suk-yeol's predecessor, can't reach him, even as deaths linked to the scandals surrounding him keep piling up.

At least, moderates seem to have been gaining some momentum lately. LEE Nak-yon to the left and HAN Dong-hoon to the right, far from being the divisive figures painted as devils by radical media from the opposite sides, are taking the right steps for the future; LEE by taking a moral stand against the DP's controversial leader (at last some hope to restore the values of KIM Dae-jung and ROH Moo-hyuns within the party), HAN by forming a dream team of advisors ticking at least on paper all the relevant boxes to fix the nation's structural divides.

But even before considering any potential presidential face-off for 2017, the unproductive stalemate between an often self-destructive executive power and an assembly controlled by an almost always obstructive opposition must end this coming April. Of course, that may not happen...

Another thing we already know about 2024: Korea will smash its own infamous record low fertility rate, now expected to nosedive down to .62.

A toxic global and local political climate, a toxic climate, period, and toxic tensions at all levels certainly don't help young Koreans (who already struggle to purchase a home) prioritize babies. For the first time this year, more strollers were sold for pets than for kids...

Mainstream media start paying attention to the not so long term consequences for the nation at the economic, social, but also political level - even a stronger than ever K9 unit won't stop tanks at the DMZ.

On one hand, ever more pressure on young Koreans, on the other, already less competition for decent universities... If that could mean down the road less hagwon - budongsan rat race insanity...

Let's talk about mental health, precisely. And not just because the suicide of Parasite actor LEE Sun-kyun ended an already far too tragic year 2023. 'It's okay not to be okay', and to talk about it. So reach out, don't let yourself and others slip down any kind of rabbit hole. And don't judge yourself or them if you or they do. It's a beautiful sign of strength to make a call that can save a life (Korea Suicide Prevention Center: 1393 - Life Line Korea: 1588.9191); it's a sign of great character to keep reading opinions you disagree with. 

We all know peace and love are hard to find, but we all can start by stopping making war at ourselves and each other. And yes, even in the darkest times, we must never forget to laugh. Because humor is all about facing tragedy. And yes again, we must never lose our sense of wonder, because for better or  for worse, life is full of wonder.

Have, literally, a wonderful new year.

UPDATE 202402

Scratch part of that. Days after I wrote these lines, LEE Nak-yon disgraced himself by palling around with the very noxious LEE Jun-seok. A short-lived but damning bromance...

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Justice under the rug

Unsurprisingly disappointed by politicians of both sides who decided to sweep justice under the rug: the Democratic Party by failing to deliver LEE Jae-myung to justice, YOON Suk-yeol by chosing closer ties with Tokyo over justice for the victims of Imperial Japan's forced labor.

At least, a higher proportion of Korea's Democratic lawmakers chose the high road than their American Republican counterparts: whereas the GOP overwhelmingly supported Trump when he faced a well deserved impeachment. only a tiny majority helped the Korean Trump preserve his immunity. Across the country, a vast majority was in favor of LEE's arrest, but the party made the wrong decision, and had the gall to pretend that democracy was under attack because for the first time, an opposition leader was investigated and issued an arrest warrant, whilst LEE precisely seeked party leadership for the sole purpose of eluding justice one more time! LEE even selfishly stole the safest seat of an incumbent in Incheon to guarantee his personal survival, letting the rest of the ship sink during the elections... 

As we've already seen, this is clearly not the party of KIM Dae-jung and ROH Moo-hyun anymore, but a group controlled by a clique that betrayed their ideals of justice and democracy, and only care about their own interests. I wish the party had seized the opportunity to cleanse their ranks from these thugs. Now lets hope the truly progressive side, that proved it still existed during this vote, will gain enough momentum to reform the party, restore decency, and build a more sustainable, inclusive platform.

Of course, Korea's right remains another kind of mess, but internal debates are a bit more public, even if YOON Suk-yeol managed to get his guy on top for next year's election (not sure KIM Gi-hyeon is a future-proof leader, but the selection of THAE Yong-ho in the Supreme Council sends an interesting message to Pyongyang elites: you can make it in the South if you reject the North Korean regime). If YOON decided to make the most of his lameduckhood to push for reforms that are not necessarily popular, he just played a very risky and unpopular card on the forced labor issue: the victims will receive a financial compensation, but paid by Korean companies that benefited from the controversial 1965 treaty, and without any apology from Japan.

From the start, YOON's eagerness to appease Tokyo seemed heading in this kind of direction. I'm all for diplomacy and warming ties with our neighbors, but I'm not okay with eluding key issues. Again, the victims of Imperial Japan's institutional Forced labor and sexual slavery never received any official apologies from any Japanese government (non binding declarations by individuals? yes, but that's not the same, and I'm not even talking about Shinzo Abe's anti-apologies - see "Decoding the Abe Statement: "why apologize for crimes Japan never committed?"). 

 YOON Suk-yeol was not elected for his obsolete Miltonfriedmanian program but to restore some sense of justice, particularly following the PARK Geun-hye scandals and the MOON Jae-in betrayals. Eluding resolution can't be the solution.

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Asymetric War (Laissez-)Faire - Crouching Doves, Hidden Hawks

Hard to get some attention in 2022. North Korea's testing frenzy (over 40 missile launches so far) eventually paid off, but with another dictator with a bigger button, an itchy finger, and an actual, ultra violent war raging, KIM Jong-un and the KCNA had to beef up their storytelling.

Look what you've done

So as Putin shot missiles all over Ukraine in retaliation for the incident on his controversial bridge to Crimea, KIM had to mansplain that his recent shots were a simulation of tactical nuclear strikes, and a rehearsal for the wiping out of key infrastructures across South Korea. If no mock up Blue Houses were harmed during the shooting, that was clearly a few notches higher than the usual reactions to joint KOR-US drills, or VIP visits (VP Kamala Harris the other day).

Furthermore, the DPRK demonstrated yet new levels of readiness and stealth, making South Korea's failed test even more embarrassing. YOON Suk-yeol can say the neighbors upstairs have 'nothing to gain from nuclear weapons', calls for nuclear deterrence South of the DMZ keep getting louder.

There's always Uncle Sam's 'ironclad' support, and including on the ground, at a time when Joe Biden can't set foot in Ukraine, or even say what he wants about Taiwan. Besides, hawks are getting a little more subtle across the East Sea, and coordination becomes possible (though whatever LEE Jae-myung may say, the ROK is not heading for a 'pro-Japan defense'). Fumio Kishida and friends even received some help from Kyiv, where Zelenskyy declared that the Kuril Islands belonged to Japan, not Russia...

All eyes should be on a key player: after circumnavigating unusual unrest at home, and Putin's most urgent demands overseas, XI Jinping is about to become more officially ruler for life (at the XXth Congress of the Chinese Communist Party).

(Seoul Village on Facebook - 20221001) "China's 'Panda Diplomacy' in 2022 according to 阿塗 (IG @ah_to_hk). With North Korea supporting Russia's massacres in Ukraine, South Korea (NB Yoon?!?) composing with Xi Jinping Imperator, Japan restoring Imperial Japan, the mighty USA eagle a distant observer, one feather brushing Taiwan... Among countless details, China's Pandamic SNAFUs, its support of autocrat neighbors, South China Sea's floating borders, a few birds that managed to escaped post-democracy Hong Kong, or those powerless doves (EU / OZ / UK / CAN) in the corner..."

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Two Murders and a Funeral - The Abe Legacy

Today, private funerals will be held for Shinzo Abe, whose assassination shocked Japan and the whole world. 

In Zojo-ji.

So the man who so heavily promoted the restoration of State Shinto will be honored in a Buddhist temple. The man who campaigned so hard for the return of Imperial Japan's militarism was murdered by a former member of the navy. And the man whom Korea loved to hate for his negation of war crimes died because that madman believed the former PM's family supported Reverend Moon's cult.

Ultimate paradox? This tragedy may help Abe fulfill his lifelong dream of destroying Japan's peaceful postwar constitution: his LDP won in the landslide he always needed but never quite achieved. 

Now the murder of peaceful, postwar Japan shall be quietly performed by lawmakers following his brainchild Nippon Kaigi. Let's see if Fumio Kishida will forever taint his name by pulling the trigger.

20220708 thread @theSeoulVillage:

"1) Fmr Japan PM in cardiac arrest, suspect arrested. Shinzo Abe was shot during speech (Reuters). Lunatic? Political? His Yakuza pals? As much as I hate his Nippon Kaigi AbeIGNomics, I wish him well.
2) Shinzo Abe died. Killer a former member of the SDF.
3) This is clearly a tragedy, but Shinzo Abe was neither a Muhammad Anwar el Sadat nor a Yitzhak Rabin. #AbeIGNomics"

=> My 2019 fake interview of Abe Shinzo: "Make Imperial Japan Great Again - an exclusive (fake) tell-all interview with Shinzo ABE"

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Miracle?!?

Frankly, I didn't expect any breakthrough for this nth Japan-Korea meeting on the 'Comfort Women' issue.

It seems that this time, Japan is getting it right: the government takes responsibility, including for the payment of reparations (unlike the fund set up two decades ago).


In a nutshell:
- Japan apologizes, confirms the government and the military had a role in the Imperial Japan sexual slavery system, pay 1 bn yen in compensations
- Korea pledges to stop criticizing Japan on the issue. 
- both have made concessions to leave the political impasse and move on

Curious to read the fine print (particularly with Abe!*), and to see what forced Abe's hand, and how hardliners on both sides will try and spoil this beautiful day.

"Shinzoexpresses 'apology, repentance from heart' to 'comfort women' I need to check the wording (twitter.com/theseoulvillage/status/681364764052725761) "Yonhap: "(URGENT) Abe expresses 'apology, repentance from heart' to 'comfort women': Japan FM ""

I lived to see the day Nippon Kaigi member Fumio Kishida say "Japanese government acutely feels responsible"(twitter.com/theseoulvillage/status/681366460363493376)
Yonhap: "(LEAD) S. Korea, Japan strike deal on 'comfort women'"

---
UPDATE20151228
---

Shinzo Abe's move on 'Comfort Women' reminds me of Ariel Sharon's move on Gaza: let's see how this hardliner's 'concession' goes. (twitter.com/theseoulvillage/status/681380220620771329)

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* remember his (in)famous statement last Summer: "Decoding the Abe Statement: "why apologize for crimes Japan never committed?"
"

"History is harsh" and other sick jokes

As expected (see "Sweeping History Under The Red Carpet"), Shinzo Abe delivered, under one of his trademark smokescreens, an unapologetic speech to the joint session of the US Congress.

The controversial Japanese PM took no chances ahead of the event:
- press muzzled at home (e.g. "Effort by Japan to Stifle News Media Is Working" by Martin Fackler - NYT 20150426)
- USA bribed with sweeteners (no to AIIB, yes to TPP), and of course the promise to D.C. hawks that the region will be over-militarized for the decades to come (Collective Self Defense)
- public opinion fooled with symbolic visits (ah, the irony of watching a war crime negationist visit a Holocaust museum, a sex slavery denier tour the Lincoln Memorial...)
- ...

So let's listen to his messages.

Video and transcript of Shinzo Abe's speech in US Congress. Needed big font to deliver his fine print revisionism (twitter.com/theseoulvillage/status/593598281965441024)

Following his new mantra, Abe repeats that he "will uphold the views expressed by the previous prime ministers", but he never voices them, precisely because they include the closest thing to personal apologies ever uttered by past Japanese leaders.

Typically, where Murayama stated his personal remorse and apology ("my feelings of deep remorse and state my heartfelt apology"*) over 'tremendous damage and suffering' caused to many nations by Japan's 'mistaken national policy', 'colonial rule and aggression', Abe keeps his distances and discards the key words 'apology', 'colonial rule' or 'aggression', and of course 'irrefutable facts of history' (see transcript). Even the 'human trafficking' tested on the way to D.C. disappeared. 

Fundamentally, Abe only refers to standard war casualties and collateral damage that occur in any kind of conflict: "History is harsh", people died on both sides, and Japan has not done anything worse than other belligerents. Again, you couldn't expect formal apologies from a man who devoted his whole life to the negation of war crimes and the destruction of post-war Japan (see Nippon Kaigi agenda). 

Abe can allow himself to get personal for the US victims of WWII ("with deep repentance in my heart"), but always remains distant from past embryos of apologies ("Post-war, we started out on our path bearing in mind feelings of deep remorse over the war") that are now restricted to the paragraph on Asian nations.

Abe's difference in treatment between the US and Asian nations reaches deeper than the need to tailor his speech for the US Congress: Abe clearly poses at the same level as the former (we fought each other, we're now friends, it was a good game, fair play, all is well), and leagues over the latter (the condescending "We must all the more contribute in every respect to the development of Asia. We must spare no effort in working for the peace and prosperity of the region").

In his speech, Abe mentions a couple of people present in the gallery, but of course not LEE Yong-soo halmoni, one of the last survivors of Imperial Japan's sexual slavery system. She came with Mike HONDA, who along with Steve Israel, Bill Pascrell, and Charles Rangell, took yet another stand at the Congress ahead of Abe's visit. GOP lawmakers were M.I.A. except Marco Rubio, who asked Shinzo Abe to cope with the issue... two days before licking his boots in a Wall Street Journal oped**. Some hawks / lobbyists / fundraisers must have reminded him that he could not say whatever he wanted during his presidential campaign.

Speaking of hawks: Shinzo Abe mentioned at least 3 fellow Nippon Kaigi followers in his speech: Yoshitaka Shindo, Fumio Kishida, and Gen Nakatani. The last two worked with John Kerry and Ashton Carter on a framework to push Abe and Nippon Kaigi's key reform, deliciously hyped as "a sweeping one in our post-war history".

If "the darkest night fell upon Japan" on March 11, 2011, history will also remember as a national tragedy the date Abe starts his destruction of post-war Japan by tearing down its peaceful constitution. A national tragedy except of course in the textbooks monitored by this jaded revisionist...

Gladly hiding behind Abe's smokescreen to push their own, more short-sighted agenda, the US clearly don't end up looking like the world's only hyperpower. And even if Abe didn't expose the triumphant body language of Netanyahu on the same soapbox a few weeks earlier, he clearly looks closer to his lifetime dream (Japan's nightmare) than ever.

Yesterday, at the Asan Plenum, Alexis Dudden distributed this Asahi Shimbun cartoon showing the leaders of the trilateral alliance (then LBJ, Park Chung-hee, Eisatu Sako) two days after the June 22, 1965 pact between Japan and Korea. Carrying the diminutive Park on his back, a towering Johnson says 'now I can rest easy, too' while his Asian partners shake hands:

twitter.com/theseoulvillage/status/593276051041554432

The day after Shinzo Abe's speech in Congress, I guess it could show the US thanking Japan before leaving: 'thanks for taking care of the region, they need me somewhere else'. As they shake hands, the US and Japan seem to be of the same height, because the latter is standing on Korea's corpse.


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* key paragraph in Tomiichi Murayama's 1995 statement: "During a certain period in the not too distant past, Japan, following a mistaken national policy, advanced along the road to war, only to ensnare the Japanese people in a fateful crisis, and, through its colonial rule and aggression, caused tremendous damage and suffering to the people of many countries, particularly to those of Asian nations. In the hope that no such mistake be made in the future, I regard, in a spirit of humility, these irrefutable facts of history, and express here once again my feelings of deep remorse and state my heartfelt apology. Allow me also to express my feelings of profound mourning for all victims, both at home and abroad, of that history"

** "Sen. Marco Rubio takes on Japanese prime minister over 'comfort women'" (L.A. Times 20150428) followed by "Asia Needs a Strong U.S.-Japan Alliance" (WSJ 20150430)