South Korea's Super PAC

In the US, politics are a matter of PACs, the Political Action Commitees that make or destroy candidates. But in Korea, the PAC that matters these days is the PARK Won-soon / AHN Cheol-soo / CHUNG Mong-joon trio.

Never mind PARK Geun-hye: Korean presidents tend to turn into lame ducks as soon as they're elected*, because of the one term limit designed to prevent the return of dictatorship.

Before getting back to that Korean PAC, let me finish my point on this safeguard of democracy that (as I last mentioned here in a stateofthedisunionish focus ahead of the 2012 presidential race, when the constitution turned 25 - see "25 years later") contributes to South Korea's very unique imbalance of power.

Again, in this country, the executive branch is almost powerless, the legislative branch utterly divided, the judiciary branch and the media not really independent, and democracy has no control whatsoever over the two forces that actually make and unmake kings: chaebol and netizens.

Some Saenuri lawmakers have been lobbying in favor of a constitutional change allowing a second mandate, but potential successors from all sides are probably not very happy with the timing, particularly since the first beneficiary would ironically be the daughter of PARK Chung-hee, the man who got rid of the two term limit to roll out his own Yushin Constitution.

Personally, I think that South Korea should return to a 2-term system, but also that, ideally and to prevent any misunderstanding, this major constitutional reform should be voted for the following administration, and not benefit any acting president. Furthermore, the impacts on the rest of the political system should be carefully taken into account.

For instance, in France, Jacques Chirac reduced the presidential term from 7 to 5 years, and I supported the move. But he didn't change the term of office for the members of the parliament (for example to 4 years), which I considered a must in order to avoid a major disruption in the dynamics of what passes for my country's democracy: our MPs are also elected for 5 years, and our President has the power to dissolve the parliament... As expected, this new political calendar is crippling France's Fifth Republic. But hopefully, the case for asynchronous elections may soon be raised, now that my fellow citizens have realized that they have to do with President Hollande for 5 years without any chance to make him change

No such problem in Korea, where Presidents are elected for 5 years, and MPs for 4 years. 

Back to South Korea's Super PAC now. In this local election year, the big prize remains Seoul City Hall, the ideal springboard to Cheong Wa Dae, with PARK Won-soon still leading in the most recent polls:

"Poll data shows incumbents leading ahead of local elections" (The Hankyoreh 20140310)

According to The Hankyoreh (progressive), the incumbent would win with a comfortable margin against any of the 3 declared Saenuri candidates: LEE Hye-hoon (56.1 v. 24.7%), KIM Hwang-sik (51.1 v. 31.8%), and CHUNG Mong-joon (47.5 v. 39.2%).

The closest to PGH among the 3, LEE champions the fight against chaebol domination, and caused a splash when she criticized the Lotte World Tower in Jamsil. But for the moment, this positioning as a counterweight within the conservative party doesn't make her very audible against the charismatic liberal incumbent. Serving as Prime Minister under the very divisive LEE Myung-bak doesn't help KIM's cause, even if a former Supreme Court justice from Jeollanam-do sounds like the perfect profile to reach across the aisle.

If CHUNG Mong-joon has got the most to lose in joining the race, he would all but secure a presidential win in 2017 by defeating PARK on June 4th. His main rival would then be AHN Cheol-soo, who would have only 3 years to completely reform Korean politics.

Right now, Saenuri is much more the well oiled machine of a party than a Democratic Party completely split between different currents, and unable to build a common platform beyond opposition and demonstrations. UPP scandals were the perfect opportunity to clarify ideological lines, but the organization keeps piling up electoral losses and postponing long overdue reforms.

If the rapprochement between the DP and AHN Cheol-soo's new party was inevitable (be it only as a non-aggression pact ahead of the upcoming elections), the discussions promise to be as complex as the ones that failed during the autumn 2012 and paved the way for PARK Geun-hye's victory over MOON Jae-in. 

With or without KIM Han-gil's help, AHN has yet to prove he can reform the system from the inside. So far, he managed to recruit more than a few key lawmakers for his "New Politics" party, but disappointed by drafting a veteran politico who worked for CHUN Doo-hwan, PARK Geun-hye and MOON Jae-in (YOON Yeo-jun), and by forgetting to nominate at least one woman in his executive team. 

In any case, this thankless task won't be as glamorous as a tenure as Seoul mayor and come 2017, AHN could find himself in a 2012-like situation, should she man he helped get the job in 2011 get reelected next June.

June 4th really looks like a make-or-break moment for both PARK and CHUNG, to the point the latter may decide to pull out of the race. After all, he already did that during his presidential bid, and in favor of ROH Moo-hyun against LEE Hoi-chang (just a reminder how lines can move here). Besides, CHUNG can do without the prestige of City Hall (cf Hyundai Heavy Industries, ASAN Institute, FIFA, 7 terms as a lawmaker...).

But if "Paris is worth a mass", Seoul is worth a race, and whoever wins, I'm curious to see which vision for the future of Korea emerges.


Seoul Village 2014
Welcome to our Korean Errlines! Follow Seoul Village on Facebook and Twitter

Add this page to your favorites

* a curse that does have its charms, see for instance "Sejong City and the beauty of lameduckhood"

The Anipang Election: Park wins big, but who won?

According to Mayans (solar calendar), the end of the world is for tomorrow, but in Korea (lunar calendar), MOON crashed yesterday.

Actually, MOON Jae-in never had the opportunity to take off*. AHN Cheol-soo did, but he blew it** (yeah, he eventually took off yesterday, but after casting his ballot, and at Incheon Airport, in a plane for the States).

So from the start, it's always been about PARK Geun-hye cruising towards a surprise-less win in a debate-free campaign against non-existent opponents.

Her victory is not a lackluster win, but a very clear democratic triumph. Yet I'm still wondering about who won the elections.



PGH's website this morning

Korean democracy chose an indisputable winner...

- a very strong turnout: 75.80%, the biggest since the 1997 clash between Kim Dae-jung and Lee Hoi-chang
- a clear majority: 51.6% vs 48.0% (NB: small candidates were really garden gnomes this time)
- reaching beyond the usual geographic divides: we didn't skip the traditional strongholds (MOON rocked Honam, scoring 86-89% in Jeolla and 91.97% in Gwangju, PARK claimed Yeongnam, with a 80.4% peak in Daegu), but color-wise, the map is very far from the 1997 or 2002 East v. West split, and much closer to LEE Myung-bak's 2007 landslide victory. MOON claimed Seoul back, but barely. PARK's victory seemed inevitable very early, when the first Sudogwon results showed her ahead in Incheon and Gyeonggi-do, and very close to MOON in the capital city. Note that Korean expats voted 56-42 in favor of MOON.
- and even beyond the expected generational divides: yes, seniors massively voted PARK, but she didn't fare that bad at the other end of the spectrum, with one third of the youngest voters. And who ruled in social networking? The seniors, who literally kakaotalked each other to a whopping 90% participation rate.
 

 

... but who won these elections?...

For international observers, the big news is a combination of two events: a woman becomes President of the Republic of Korea for the first time, and the Korean democracy elects the offspring of a former dictator.

But I don't think the key issue in Korea was gender, or a referendum for or against PARK Chung-hee. And of course, I know constitutional values were not "top of mind". To me, it was about fears, uncertainties, and change.

And conservatism won.

Everybody knew that the situation was bad, and that something needed to be done. Both candidates promised similar reforms (less power for chaebols, more welfare for the powerless), but both inspired doubts: PARK regarding the balance of powers, MOON because his party was not ready to govern. And even when voters projected themselves in a country ruled by their own champion, they felt uncertain for the future. Fear clearly prevailed over hope, and both MOON and PARK spent their time reassuring voters - at this little game, conservatism usually wins.

And PARK followed the script perfectly, positioning herself as a mother for all citizens, softening her stance on reforms (like: yes chaebols have too much power, but in time of crisis, you cannot weaken the drivers of our economy). And as usual, she never gave the impression of speaking her own mind, always calculating her words, always speaking with the voice of the wary, risk-averse but confident ajumma.
 
So Koreans chose change without change, and the ruling party will keep ruling. But the official leader has really changed. LEE Myung-bak received a clear mandate for reforms, and he had credentials as a doer and a leader. PARK Geun-hye's more into backstage politics, and the only reforms she's carried out so far are rebranding her own party, replacing a few extra actors, and wishing very hard that corruption would stop***.

But PARK Geun-hye's been here forever, and everybody knows her story. She didn't chose to be the daughter of a dictator, and you can't expect a kid whose parents got murdered to grow into an adult like all others. She eventually distanced herself from her dad's regime, and she has no risks of favoring kids of her own since she doesn't have any. Bonus: unlike her predecessor, she (officially at least) doesn't run for any religious group. So why not give her a chance? Even if she only criticized her dad indirectly, reluctantly, and faintly. Even if, to this day, we still don't know what she truly thinks. Even if we can't tell if she's running her own show.

Yesterday, when her time to shine came, PARK Geun-hye somehow managed to dodge the call again. She certainly didn't deliver an inspiring acceptance speech: only a few word at her headquarters to announce that she'd go to Gwanghwamun... where she didn't take the stage but received a bouquet before answering a quick victory interview. KIM Yu-na style. The scene should have taken place in Seoul Plaza with the ice rink  in the background instead of King Sejong's statue.

So who stole the TV show yesterday? Gwanghwamun, CHUNG Mong-joon, and Anipang.

. Gwanghwamun? On her way back to Cheong Wa Dae, PARK left her Gangnam base to pause at party HQ, and ultimately Gwanghwamun, the gate to the main palace. All symbols of power were covered, but if anyone doubted it it's now official: Gwanghwamun has reclaimed its status as the ultimate symbol of power for Seoul and Korea. Special mention for King Sejong: his statue seemed to overpower the new president when she made her quick apparition, and his name has also become a political prize in itself (Sejong City, not yet a symbol of power, but the latest province-level, special self-governing city).

. CHUNG Mong-joon? Like King Sejong but sans the smile, he remained seated and silent all the time, yet his giant meditative face dominated the screen. PARK's short presence not even a distraction.

. Anipang? I didn't watch an election night on TV but a silly video game with a screen split between neat rows of Saenuri and DUP characters, and cute PARK and MOON animations reacting to the scores. And when I say "scores", it's just the plain, basic count of votes. The only humans you see are non-expert TV presenters announcing lists of results. Forget about analysis. Forget about pundits and spin rooms. Forget about exit polls telling differences in segments or motivations. It's just a stupid TV show, a countdown where the aim of the game is to guess at what time we have an official winner. I zapped through all the channels and they all did the same, competing only on their 3D animations. They all tried cute things, like that big giant teddy bear walking across Korea (straight from Tottoro), except SBS, which dared a weird concept, travelling through a derelict Korean village abandoned after a war, almost like a shoot'em up scene after all players are gone. Here's newsY's take at Moon discovering his score:




Now what?

In other words: we haven't seen nor learned anything so far. Neither during the campaign, nor afterwards.
 
And we have to give PARK Geun-hye the benefit of the doubt.
 
It's up to her (or to the people who drive the vehicle) to decide where to lead the nation, and what kind of final legacy she wants her family to leave.
 
Let's see how this blank page evolves.

And how history is being written. Including and particularly the past, in school textbooks. 

(ADDENDUM - post egalement repris en Francais sur mes blogules en VF: "De quoi PARK Geun-hye est-elle le nom?" et sur Rue89)
 

Seoul Village 2012
Welcome to our Korean Errlines! Follow Seoul Village on Facebook and Twitter

*  see "Time is up"
** see "Scratch that: Dynasty, Dallas, or the Twilight Zone?"
*** see "25 years later"
****  see "Saenuri, a brand "new" wor(l)d"

Saenuri, a brand "new" wor(l)d

In Korea, the life expectancy of a political party rarely surpasses that of a David Beckham hairdo, and key leaders can change franchises with the swiftness of free agents.

But over the past 15 years, we kind of got used to a classic face off between conservatives (Grand National Party / GNP / 한나라당 / Hannara Dang) and liberals (Democratic Party (DP / 민주당 Minju Dang).

Actually, while the GNP brand survived major losses as well as Lee Myung-bak's 2007 triumph, the DP kept changing names: the Millenium Democratic Party, the Uri Party, the United New Democratic Party, again the Democratic Party, and now, following a recent merger with the Citizens Unity Party, the Democratic United Party (DUP / 민주통합당 / Minju Tonghap Dang).

As a matter of fact, the Korean 'left' has always been a jigsaw puzzle, and only Kim Dae-jung managed to federate all forces behind his own historical figure. Roh Moo-hyun did succeed him as President because of his own qualities, but he also benefited from his former rival's aura, and the conservative candidate, Lee Hoi-chang, was as un-likeable as one could be in those pre-Facebook days. Now Han Myeong-sook claims more than ever the leadership of the opposition: she served Roh as the country's first female PM, was cleared of corruption charges (charges that 'proved' that she was considered a menace for the governing party), and was elected the head of the 'new' united party. Yet she clearly lacks the quiet charisma of Kim and Roh.

And the GNP champion, Park Geun-hye, doesn't fare much better: regardless of her genes (to celebrate the 60th anniversary of the armistice, I don't think a Park dynasty down South would be the best answer to the Kim dynasty up North), Park Chung-hee's daughter is more associated with conservatism and tactics than reform and strategy. Typically, she seized the nth political scandal of the decade to pose as a 'reformer', simply because convicted felons were replaced by the next breed, and because, at long last, the party was rebranded.

Exit the Grand National Party, enter the New World Party (새누리당 / Saenuri Dang). If they forgot to lock the domain name (at least, the 'democratic' minjoo.or.kr remained active after the merger), they kept the tradition of a lyrical, zweideutig brand: the Han of Hannara could also mean One or Korean, and Saenuri almost sounds like a joyful bird.

Anyway, for 2012, both sides want to sell a major league clash between two new and improved parties, and as a bonus between two women. Change! Broken glass ceilings! The rivals even met a couple of weeks ago for a photo op.

Of course, that only stresses their fear of outsider Ahn Cheol-soo. The netco founder hasn't officially declared himself a candidate yet, but he's been pervasively consulting overseas to raise his credentials (much advertized meeting with Bill Gates).


Seoul Village 2012
NEW : follow Seoul Village on Facebook and Twitter