Seongdong v. Seongdong

The race for Seoul mayor got a bit tighter lately: longtime Seongdong-gu mayor JUNG Won-oh seemed to be cruising towards an easy victory, but longtime incumbent OH Se-hoon is now within striking distance.

If JUNG's DPK and OH's PPP have become caricature parties in a deeply divided nation, the two leading candidates are not that radically opposed, and not just because OH was born in Seongdong-gu*. Both have had their share of controversies during their long tenures**, both are more pragmatists than populists, both have implemented policies that could have come from across the aisle, both have increased their territory's global attractiveness (Seoul back in the game and for the first time among the World's top 10 startup hubs, Seongsu-dong a magnet for influencers), and both pledge to build more dwellings to meet the demand from low income citizens.

Nevermind those decreasing populations in Seoul and Korea, and forget about making existing homes more affordable... build and they will come. Yes, their programs differ significantly (big, tall, top-down projects for OH, 'chak chak', district-level affairs for JUNG), but you can expect more concrete after this epic, vegetal-free 'Garden of Gratitude' erected on Gwanghwamun Square to honor Korean war veterans. 

Seoul's new Garden of Gratitude

 

One garden of gratitude for Seoul? One fortress of solitude for the winner? One hundred years of solitude for the loser?  

JUNG Won-oh - OH Se-hoon

Whoever wins, we'll keep an eye on him, for better or for worse.

Seongsu me.

 --- UPDATE 20260609 ---

OH Se-hoon eventually won by a slim margin, but another troubling scandal plagued the National Election Commission, who obviously caused a printed ballot shortage in key polling stations where OH was bound to score high. Like in 2022, a major crisis was avoided by the final outcome, apologies were issued, and the SNAFU fueled K-MAGA's 'stop the steal' conspiracy theories. But this time, Foreign media (including the FT) seem to be paying more attention to the ruling party's controversial reforms undermining separation of powers, particularly around justice.

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*  the only Seoul mayor to be born in the capital city BTW. JUNG was born in Jeollanam-do (Yeosu)

** or even before when it comes to JUNG, still haunted by a 1995 incident involving the assault of police force 

4th exclusive interview with KIM Jong-un - Chollyu time!

Even if eight years have passed since our last meeting*, the Beer Leader remembers me all right, almost choking me with a long, nicotine-laden bear hug. His daughter KIM Ju-ae opts for a quick high-five before returning to her smartphone - probably posting ahout the event on KCNA's latest app Instagrim.

KIM Jong-un: "Welcome back to my lair! See how my beloved daughter, the Morning Star of Korea, has grown into a perfect heir? You know she's already become a Missile General Director? Well from day one I've trained her so well.... she executed her first traitors before she could even walk."

Seoul Village: "How cute... a chip off the old block indeed. Your dynasty's 4G is enjoying a great coverage from your propaganda machine, but I can't see KIM Yo-jong today, and she's always photobombing our interviews from the background... Is she jealous because her niece got the leather jacket she always dreamed of?"

KJU: "Ju-ae wouldn't fit, fat chance.... No, Yo-jong's mission is over: we had to get our people used to a potential leading female figure from the divine bloodline, the time for 4G to grow out of her diapers."

Birds of a leather rule together - KIM 4G with her high fructose sugar daddy

SV: "Ever the gentleman... I also noted how you're trying to counter illegal Hallyu content by developing series shot in a more Hollywood fashion."

KJU: "Yup. We call that Chollyu. We produced very popular series, like 'Camp 14', which I'm sure inspired Squid Game. You know, our whole nation is a big survival game. BTS is also drawing huge crowds here."

SV: "BTS?!?"

KJU: "Yeah. 'Behind The Scenes' is a reality show devoted to torture techniques. Our domestic audiences are literally hooked to it."

SV: "You've also been exporting such niceties as cannon fodder to Russia or missile technologies to Iran."

KJU: "Among others, got that right. And business has been booming even more since the US have embraced the dark side of the force."

SV: "Wow wow, not so fast, the Midterms might put the brakes on your friend Donnie." 

KJU: "Yes, Donald is on the right track, except of course when he's unfairly competing with us. By the way did you see how his dynasty's raking in cryptocurrencies? And they're not even hiding behind hackers and aliases when they demand bribes or ransom or anything. But Trump is not the guy in charge of America. Pete will make sure November will come out just fine."

SV: "Pete? Not Vlad?"

KJU: "Putin showed the way, Thiel perfected it. With this guy, Trump won't even need redistricting. They've got all the data they want on every single citizen, they know what they're thinking because they shape it. Actually I asked him to upgrade our rusty software - can you believe we're still running on Kimchi Analytica 1.0?".  

SV: "So no need for another Trump-Kim summit then?"

KJU: "Not officially. Of course Donald will visit, but essentially on a benchmark tour of our regime: for his ICE facilities naturally, but also for his ballroom, his military parades, his monuments, his dynastic trickle-down economics, and of course his cult of personality..Trump is tired of the French model - doesn't feel personal enough. I was touched by his Trump pin initiative, a nice tribute to our tradition. I also loved his giant portrait on the Department of Justice HQ, a perfect symbol of the abolition of the separation of powers, but Don wants something more long-lasting than a banner."

'#TrumpPresidentialLibrary obviously designed to host a #NorthKorea plenum. #Trump #architecture' (20260331 - @theseoulvillage)

'#MAGA goes #KCNA:' (20250804 - @theseoulvillage)

 

'OMG #KarolineLeavitt is actually going full #RiChunhee!!!' (20260108 - @theseoulvillage)

 SV: "No summit with South Korea either?" 

KJU: "I don't need puppets down South anymore, now that I've got the perfect love triangle around me. When Trump pulls out the troops, Vlad and Jinping will maintain some Mexican standoff. Could get trickier when Putin kicks the bucket though. Russian mobster succession wars can get messy." 

SV: "You're distancing yourself from South Korea at the very moment a good friend rules supreme. LEE Jae-myung sent you money, legalized your propaganda, his unification minister leaked essential intel from the States... and you're still snubbing him?"

KJU: "The more I wait, the more he'll send my way. Besides, he's also busy with his own takeover of justice. Plus I have tests to run and he doesn't like that."

SV: "Nukes?"

KJU: "Our pyrotechnics shows will depend on which part of our catalogue our clients are interested it. It won't be as spectacular, but I'm also developing a lovely new weapon with Pete, Elon, and Vlad: swarms of nano drones. We all need them for our core surveillance and spying activities, but also for surgical removal of political opponents. Much more efficient and discreet than VX or Novichok."

SV: "Are Thiel and Musk also considering this kind of applications?"

KJU: "Which verses of Project 2025 and Dark Enlightenment did you skip?" 

Seoul Village 2026
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* see previous episodes: "Exclusive interview with KIM Jong-un" , "EXCLUSIVE-Second interview with KIM Jong-un", "Exclusive interview with KIM Jong-un - Season III"- Agence Fausse Presse.

Seoul Village Season XX

Welcome to 2026, the year of the Red Horse! I know, technically, we have to wait for the lunar new year and some may prefer the Fire Horse moniker but anyway, here's an AI generated beast for all of you:

Change, bold choices, that's what's supposedly in store for the new year.

Korea experienced its share of changes in 2025, but they were expected:

• YOON Suk-yeol's impeachment was confirmed
• LEE Jae-myung managed to elude justice and get elected
• Korea has de facto become a single-party nation, and not the party the disgraced president wanted 

A single party nation?

YOON's party - which never really was his - is in shambles. And that's not the first time: the PPP failed to truly reform itself (beyond rebranding) after PARK Geun-hye's impeachment, and it doesn't seem willing to evolve following YOON's either. In fact, this election losing machine succeeded only in 2022, when the DPK led the national shoot-yourself-in-the-foot contest with a LEE Jae-myung ensnared in scandals and a then highly unpopular president MOON Jae-in creating a most unlikely candidate (YOON) that had no choice but to join the other side... Today, this party doesn't seem to have any future.

Meanwhile, to secure his own future, LEE Jae-myung managed to seize both the stick (full control of justice) and the carrot (direct control of finance). In the most Trumpian fashion, he's now enjoying the retribution time of his life, siccing justice even at OH Se-hoon, who had no involvement whatsoever in YOON's martial law disaster, but remains his number one target for the 2026 local elections. DP candidate CHONG Won-o is already catching up with the Seoul mayor.

On the diplomatic front, LEE has been very active and well beyond the long planned APEC 2025 summit in Gwangju. As expected, he reconnected with North Korea and China. He's visiting XI Jinping very soon, but KIM Jong-un is not as responsive as planned - probably vaxxed by earlier disillusions from the TRUMP I era, and most certainly not thrilled by the new POTROK's surprising request for a nuclear submarine from Uncle Sam (on the other hand, that OPCON transfer...). Also surprising: LEE cozying up with Japan. XI might ask him to chose sides wisely.

On the domestic front, a few good news: the demographic uptick started 16 months ago has not been disturbed by the domestic turmoil, the presidency returned to Cheong Wa Dae, and exports rebounded (Korean cosmetics rule, semiconductors had a good year...). But the Korean Won nosedived, protectionism returned, the household and national debts kept creeping up, costly gifts to stimulate consumption further damaged the balance, and Korea can't afford a Japan-style headlong flight.

But at least, Korea beat another Netflix record with Kedeheon / 케데헌*.

As much as I enjoyed K-Pop Demon Hunters' catchy OST and many references to the Korean culture, it felt visually closer to a manga or anime than to a manhwa. Even that big cat seemed to come straight from Studio Ghibli. But K-pop itself stole from all over the map, so let's not bicker and enjoy while it lasts.

 

Because the billions Netflix poured in Korea following Squid Game are coming to an end, and the platform is diversifying its sources across the region - expect a lot of BL from Thailand.

So yes, BTS will drop a new album in March, but other pillars of the creative industry are struggling (see "A Fade Out - Not 'The End'"), and the world will also want new stuff. If it wants to remain a cultural leader**, Korea will need to once more reinvent itself, to move out of its creative comfort zone. 

Seoul Village 2026
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* over 325M views for the first 91 days vs over 265M for Squid Game in 2021 (+22%, but the number of Netflix subs grew by 36% in the meantime).

** see "Can Korea sustain its cultural leadership?"

Teflon

On June 3, Korea will pick its next president. We already know that this president won't be a woman, because the nation returned to its usual 'manel' mode:

'Cherchez la femme'... 8 candidates, 8 men.

We also already know that this president will be LEE Jae-myung, bar some last minute surprise. LEE is not running any risks, behind a bulletproof jacket that has become a marketing gimmick ever since he wore one when summoned to court (look, I'm not a bad guy, I survived an assassination attempt, remember*?). 

There is no way PPP candidate KIM Moon-soo can catch up with his rival. Not because he failed to unite with LEE Jun-seop (a blessing in disguise: that toxic mysoginist would have torpedoed him like he almost sunk YOON Suk-yeol three years ago), but because he refused to unite with HAN Duck-soo, which doesn't look good when you aim at uniting a nation.

HAN Duck-soo could have defeated LEE. Like YOON in 2022, less for his own qualities than for the defaults of his rival. HAN would have easily collected the votes of never-LJM democrats: he wasn't the power hungry extremist LEE tried to depict; just a dull civil servant who put country over party, and also worked for KIM Dae-jung and ROH Moo-hyun.

Come to think of it, neither of the two leading candidates should be in this race today. KIM because HAN was not a political animal but a reluctant, suicidal candidate, and LEE because he was ruled guilty of an offense that should prevent him from running for five years, but the Supreme Court didn't go all the way and declare him ineligible. 

The institution simply stated that LEE was guilty and that the Seoul court had to change its ruling accordingly, blaming it on the way for many irregularities. Of course, that partisan court, which already drew criticism and an overrule for the way it dealt with YOON, postponed its own decision until the last moment, did nothing to fix its own misdeeds before the election. 

So just like TRUMP, Teflon LEE will survive a major judicial blow and cruise to victory. But this taint remains particularly embarrassing, and his teams already suggested a few extreme ways of removing it. Among others:

• create a new law to cancel ongoing cases against a newly elected president (his legislative majority already carved many exotic laws over the past years, but even TRUMP 1.0 couldn't pull that one)
• impeach the head of the Supreme Court
• double the number of Supreme Court justices (!)
• ending the Separation of Powers, a keystone of democracy 
• ... 

Not the best way to mend a nation traumatized by 'Martial Law' YOON Suk-yeol... The word 'dictatorship' has even been used to describe what Korea could become under an almighty LEE, should he prolong his legislative overreach of the past few years. Once elected, will he let bygones be bygones, or will he double down and go full TRUMP? Of course, LJM is much smarter and less egotistical than DJT, but there's little chance he will reduce a grip on justice he's been trying to strengthen for years. Korea has been in a constitutional crisis since 2020, and the balance of power is at stake.

Like for all his predecessors, LEE Jae-myung will have a right to make mistakes, but not on the fundamentals of democracy. This nation can't afford one more screw up (well that's what I wrote before the previous elections; and look what happened).

Of course, we'll also see how LEE will handle other hot potatoes such as:

• the economy: more business savvy and less ideological than MOON on the issue, LEE remains a populist, but there's no coffer left to plunder
• demographics: for the first time in a while, the national birthrate ticked up in 2024 - was it a flash in the pan? can Koreans grow more confident in these troubled times?
• North Korea: charged for instructing illegal transfers to Pyongyang and heading a party that suppressed laws against foreign spies, LEE will probably reach out across the DMZ. Also likely to step back from the close collaboration with Japan and the USA (which would profit China, even if he's not pitching that tune ahead of the elections).
• TRUMP: the anti-US LEE could get along very well with The Donald, and that's not paradoxical since DJT himself is pretty much anti-America. Furthermore, these two highly transactional people who totally reshaped their own parties to their image can find lucrative common ground. Expect fewer US troops in the peninsula.

Anyway, whoever wins, his predecessor YOON Suk-yeol will soon, along with his wife KIM Keon-hee, have more facetime with justice. Even though, the disgraced president managed to invite himself in the campaign by attending the projection of a conspiracy theory film about election fraud... 

Won't Korea's tragic comedy ever end? 

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* see 'Assassination attempt on LEE Jae-myung in Busan'

Yoon logically removed - One down, one to go.

As expected - and as the smile on its president MOON Hyung-bae confirmed before he even started talking  -, Korea's Constitutional Court removed impeached president YOON Suk-yeol.

 

The unanimous character of this decision was far less guaranteed, and the unprecedented time taken for this decision probably indicates how difficult it was for this divided and controversial institution to craft a consensual declaration. In order to achieve that, it had to draw the full picture, remind some context, and put some blame on the rival party.

So as was obvious from day one*, YOON had to go not because he started an insurrection (he didn't), but because he took a disproportionate measure (declaring martial law) as a desperate man facing unprecedented obstruction from an opposition that indeed undermined the nation.

There was no better way for the Court to save face; a unanimous decision was crucial to prevent further chaos following months of botched processes and at times farcical episodes that cast serious doubts on the whole judiciary system**.

The PPP logically accepted the decision, calling for a quiet transition and a resolution of the problems that caused YOON's doomed declaration, The DKP claimed victory, sweeping under the rug the finger pointed by the Court at its radical behavior.

So here we are, at most 60 days away from another presidential election.

And just like we pointed out from the day one of that martial law drama*, the question is not whether YOON will go, but whether LEE Jae-myung will once again elude justice to become president.

Let's hope Korea will not replace a stubborn idiot with a selfish bully.

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* see 'Double Feature Night: '12.3 The Day' + 'The President's Last (going with a) Bang''

** see  my Korea Times opinion 'Korea deserves better leadership . . . on both sides' also in my previous post 'Yoon released, level playing field next'

Yoon released, level playing field next?

Today, YOON Suk-yeol was released from jail following a ruling exposing his arrest as illegal and the process behind it as questionable. Prosecutor General SHIM Woo-jung refused to appeal this ruling that confirmed the serious doubts surrounding the way justice and democracy were handled following Yoon's stunning martial law declaration (see below 'Korea needs new leadership... on both sides', my article in The Korea Times last month).

If countless legal and constitutional experts have already denounced the abuses committed over the past few months, this is the first official time justice officially rules foul play. And in a striking parallel between two Prosecutor Generals, SHIM Woo-jung took a stand against LEE Jae-myung's abuses of justice similar to YOON's against MOON Jae-in five years ago.

Public opinion has also shifted, younger generations being particularly angered about the unfairness of a system corrupted to an appalling point. Over the past week, we've learned that MOON's controversial reforms didn't stop at creating a constitutional and judicial monster in the CIO (see article below), but also perverted the election commission into another political tool totally exempt from accountability, its top job being even handed down from father to son. Now calls are mounting to investigate the investigation, starting with the CIO. 

LEE Jae-myung himself may face new challenges within his party. In spite of his own legal problems, he's been parading like an acting president, promising everything and its contrary, claiming his DPK is not progressive, courting both TRUMP and XI. The controversial figure has managed to remove all competitors within the DPK, but it's getting every day more obvious that he is the problem. Like TRUMP corrupted Lincoln's GOP from the inside, LEE Jae-myung keeps defacing the party of KIM Dae-jung and ROH Moo-hyun

I've made the parallel between TRUMP and LEE for years, but it's never been more relevant  than today: fundamentally, both are accused of the same attacks on democracy, particularly regarding the separation and balance of powers. The difference is that with DJT the executive is taking over justice and the legislative power, while with LJM the legislative power is taking over the executive and justice. In both cases, a controversial leader struggling with justice puts himself first and last, and doesn't care about the party or the country.

As for YOON Suk-yeol, if he can feel somehow vindicated for his diagnostic (democracy was under threat at many levels), he may still pay for his radical method of raising the alert (declaring martial law).

This watershed moment comes days before the decision of a Constitutional Court itself under scrutiny for obvious bias and for actions that contradicted both law and its own rules. In such a context, ruling YOON guilty of insurrection would cause a major democratic crisis because it would in itself be equivalent to an insurrection or coup d'etat by LEE and friends. On the other hand, no one expect this LEE-friendly body to fully exonerate the impeached president. 

The only decent way out would be to decide not to decide, and to rule that given the doubts surrounding this whole mess, investigation should start from scratch. 

Better get this right this time. 

And make sure that both sides are fully and fairly investigated

History keeps watching. 

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Korea deserves better leadership . . . on both sides

By Stephane Mot

2025-02-03

The chaotic mess that followed Yoon Suk Yeol’s martial law folly is an embarrassment for Korean politicians who, unlike in 2016, failed to rise to the democratic challenge.

Democracy relies on a very delicate balance of power where the independence of justice remains one of the trickiest goals to achieve, and Korea is by no means an exception. Here, justice plays an even more important role since the balance tilts toward the legislative power in a unicameral system with a single-term limit for presidents.

Following an event as exceptional as a martial law declaration, democracy and justice must work flawlessly: History is watching.

In 2016, Korea experienced a rare moment of grace when, except for a minority of hardcore supporters, the whole nation united to demand and obtain the impeachment of then-President Park Geun-hye. Democracy triumphed and its very fundamentals were at the core of everyday discussions: what is justice, what is the separation of powers, what are checks and balances … This unity was also made possible because, from the beginning, the Ewha Womans University students who started the mobilization around the Park scandal demanded that the movement remained apolitical.

The democratic surge against Yoon’s martial law did start on a bipartisan basis (the move was immediately denounced by leaders from both sides, and swiftly canceled in a unanimous vote), but partisan politics quickly took over.

Yoon’s disastrous move logically resulted in his impeachment, but instead of following the natural process led by the Constitutional Court, the opposition launched parallel investigations to speed up the calendar. Because Yoon was not the only target of justice, and from Dec. 3 the key question has never been whether he will be removed from power (he should and he will), nor even when (in any case by mid-May, or six months after his impeachment), but whether Lee Jae-myung will pull a Trump and elude justice until the presidential elections, which must be held within 60 days following the president’s removal.

Substituting the calendar of justice with the calendar of politics is dangerous for democracy, and when you try to score political goals at all costs, you end up scoring own goals in front of history. As the Republican Party just demonstrated in the U.S., you can at the same time win an election and lose your soul. And just like Lincoln would hardly recognize Trump’s GOP, Kim Dae-jung and Roh Moo-hyun would not necessarily condone this Democratic Party of Korea’s (DPK) handling of justice.

Make no mistake, as president, Yoon himself displayed a very selective vision of justice. And of course, his People Power Party is far closer to Trump’s, particularly with its own "basket of deplorables" (from anti-feminists to ultra-conservative bigots, K-MAGA conspiracy theorists and hardcore history revisionists … ). But it takes two to tango, and there are good and bad guys on both sides of the aisle.

The DPK’s first miscalculation was the express and frankly unnecessary impeachment of then-acting President Han Duck-soo. This manufactured crisis confirmed that party leaders were in a rush and didn’t care about the economic or international consequences of their actions.

But weaponizing the Corruption Investigation Office for High-ranking Officials (CIO) was clearly a moral hazard. Yes, it undoubtedly helped the party achieve its goal of speeding up the judiciary calendar and serving Lee, but at what cost?

With its spectacular strikes, borderline legal tactics and at times comical blunders (not to mention unanswered questions regarding its scope and legitimacy), the CIO drew criticism from both sides and replaced the due process of justice with a tragic circus that not only contaminated a Constitutional Court forced to take sides or to turn a blind eye, but also cast serious doubts about the impartiality of the whole system.

Worse: The CIO’s shortcomings also revived the key controversies that surrounded its creation five years earlier. At the core of justice reforms that disrupted the balance of power and brought confusion between justice and police, undermining the core missions of the latter, the new institution appeared like a special purpose vehicle, a partisan tool tailor-made to "search and kill" any investigation against former President Moon Jae-in’s administration and friends.

So using and abusing this very CIO against Yoon, a liberal darling who before falling down his own rabbit hole became the right wing’s champion precisely because he resisted these controversial reforms as well as abuses reminiscent of the despicable prosecutor Woo Byung-woo ... that's not the smartest message to send if you want to restore trust in the system.

Furthermore, this messy, undignified rush is deliberately depriving Korea of a most vital democratic debate on the core issues raised by Yoon’s folly, in particular the accusations of abuse of power made not only against him, but also against the legislative majority. This general lack of transparency, this confusion, fed feelings of frustration and unfairness, logically contributing to the rise of the disgraced president and his party in opinion polls when Yoon should have remained at rock bottom, like Park before him. As much as wild right-wing conspiracy theories, this certainly fueled Korea’s own Jan. 6 moment (the inexcusable yet fully predictable and preventable Jan. 19 assault on the court that issued Yoon’s arrest warrant).

Between Yoon’s suicidal martial law declaration and the opposition’s counterproductive barrage, Korean politicians from both sides only managed to demonstrate their lack of judgment and their unfitness to lead the nation toward actual justice, fairness and unity.

The failed reforms of 2020 must be fixed, checks and balances restored, and new, moderate leadership must emerge on both sides. If now is certainly not the best time to allow a second term for presidents, implementing a two-round system for the next presidential elections would be the best way to let all voices be heard in the first round, to help more transparent alliances form before the second and to erect an additional hurdle against populism.

Stephane Mot is author of “Seoul Villages - Guisin-dong and other Seoul Villages."

Seoul Village Season XIX

At long last, Korea's miserable month of December 2024 is over. You'd think it'd be hard to top two presidential impeachments sandwiched between two major disasters (YOON Suk-yeol's short-lived martial law and Jeju Air's tragic plane crash), but 2025 doesn't bode very well either for a nation on the ropes. 

Whoever is the next president will have a hard time rebuilding hope and trust at home as well as overseas, provided that's on their menu.

In the short term, acting president CHOI Sang-mok is unlikely to achieve anything significant and until the elections at least, the opposition is unlikely to contribute to reviving an anemic economy it's been undermining for years. As for the long term. this Dark December most probably annihilated that recent, timid demographic uptick (belated COVID rebound?) as radically as those politically motivated budget cuts sacrificing Korea's future growth engines (goodbye innovation and quantum computing).

Korea's competitive edge and survival are also at risk with the return of Trump to the White House.

In the 1991 blockbuster Terminator 2: Judgement Day, Arnold Schwarzenegger returned as a force of good in total contrast with a first opus where he pretty much destroyed everything. But that's fiction and in Trump's T2, The Donald is unlikely to fundamentally change characters. Actually, DJT already hired 'Dark MAGA' Elon Musk for the role of Robert Patrick: T-!000, a fitter, slicker, updated version of the bulletproof killing machine programmed to help Skynet / Space X control the World. Anyway, doomsday scenario or not, this sequel promises to be less boring than Kamala Harris' short-lived B2: Statu Quo.

Both sides of the DMZ are watching closely.

KIM Jong-un knows he can't trust Trump, and he's already busy with another transactional buddy, Vladimir Putin. With his 'Juche Line' and 'Sunshine Line' in tatters, KIM somehow balances the 'Beijing Line' with a 'Kremlin Line' that provides oil, currencies, and statesman credentials against disposables (weapons and cannon fodder). 

Whoever is in charge in Seoul, lines will change and the US military presence of South Korea will be reevaluated by a man who already proved he could betray and abandon brothers in arms (ask the Kurds and Afghans if they believe one second Trump's commitment to Koreans is ironclad). We know Trump wants to withdraw, and that Mike Pompeo advised him (as Mark Esper revealed) to delay such a risky move to his second term. We know that this time he'll be surrounded by incompetent yes-men in the White House and in a greater section of Congress. We also know that Marco Rubio wouldn't be okay with abandoning Asia to China, but that he won't be calling the shots...

Should LEE Jae-myeong become the next president, he could even accelerate the withdrawal process. And he certainly wouldn't compensate with a NATO style alliance with Japan and Taiwan, like the one floated here and there as a second Trump mandate looked inevitable.

But LEE himself is a very transactional guy, and he could sing Trump a different kind of serenade than the one YOON sang to Biden. 

Besides, Korea Inc have more than a few chips on the table. Samsung, SK Hynix and Co. also fear another kind of withdrawal: the subsidies guaranteed under Joe Bden's CHIPS act. CHEY Tae-won already warned SK might reconsider its massive investment in Indiana, where both senators are Republicans... like in Texas, where Samsung extends its Austin plant and builds a new one in Taylor...

At worst very conflictual, at best very transactional, this year of the blue snake looks pretty sneaky. 

Nonetheless, let's wish ourselves a happy new year 2025.

"#Trump returns. To #KyoboBookstore, #Seoul:" (20241129 post by Seoul Village on Bluesky)

Seoul Village 2025
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Masks off

Impeaching acting president HAN Duck-soo was a predictable yet unfortunate move for LEE Jae-myung. We already knew that he would try anything to rush the full takeover of the judiciary system by his legislative majority before his trials and appeals go all the way, and we already knew that they could create any artificial conflict to impeach officials and paralyze the executive power, but the optics of his latest stunt are not very pretty, and kind of bring his own camp almost down to the level of their opponents.

Don't get me wrong: there's no moral equivalence between YOON Suk-yeol's outrageous martial law declaration and LEE's political tactics, but this botched process that even bypassed standard usages to force new supreme justices only feeds YOON's twisted narrative: LEE's DP is abusing its power to de facto rule the nation, and undermining it by forging unnecessary crises. 

If LEE's hardcore fans will applaud a new point scored 'for democracy', his adversaries, including within his party, may be rejoicing for an own goal.

The question is not whether YOON will be impeached, nor even when, but whether LEE will at long last face justice. And whether the good guys within his party, who'd make much better presidents than he, will have the guts to defy him instead of waiting for five years.

Meanwhile, former finance minister CHOI Sang-mok becomes the new acting president in this Squid Game version of the musical chairs.

Seoul Village 2024
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One more job to finish

As expected*, YOON Suk-yeol's suicidal martial law folly resulted in his impeachment, and Korea democracy prevailed. Now the following steps are equally foreseeable: 

• PM HAN Duck-soo will act as interim president the time for the Supreme Court to confirm YOON's ousting**, 
• presidential elections will be held and crown a member of the opposition,
• as one of the only 3 PPP lawmakers who had the decency to take part in the first impeachment vote last Saturday, AHN Cheol-soo will once more run and fail to coalesce around a center that can't emerge in such an utterly divided nation. 
• the PPP itself will once more change names and fail to reform, plagued by self-destructive forces (hardcore ultra-conservatives, anti-feminists, bigots, K-MAGA conspiracy theorists...)
  

The only question that matters now is will LEE Jae-myung manage to pull a Trump and succeed in eluding justice and accountability all the way to the elections?

YOON's political suicide gave him a unique opportunity to pose as a hero and gain global attention, even if few international media mentioned LEE's darker sides (let's put that on the demonstration dopamine and the euphoria of witnessing history, if not on fixers who don't always share the same journalistic standards).

The fact that YOON Suk-yeol deserves impeachment doesn't mean LEE Jae-myung doesn't deserve to be judged.

The fact that the LEE Jun-seok and Co. are appalling anti-feminists doesn't mean LEE Jae-myung shouldn't be criticized for labeling his nephew's double femicide as mere 'dating violence'. 

The fact that the PPP must reform and purge itself of rotten apples doesn't mean the DP doesn't have to do the same.

Korea can't afford yet another disappointment. 

Following PARK Geun-hye's impeachment, we've seen two presidents elected to restore justice but failing on their core mission: MOON Jae-in by betraying the memory of ROH Moo-hyun and perverting the balance of power and justice, and YOON Suk-yeol by betraying his promise through double standards for justice and the nation through an outrageous martial law.

If Korea proved once again that it remains a vibrant democracy, it has at least one more job to finish.

'#YoonSukyeol 2nd #impeachment vote starting with floor leader #ParkChandae's speech.' (seoulvillage.bsky.social/post/3ldaqxeojwc2k - 20241214) - The eventual score was 204 yes, 85 no, 3 abstentions, 8 invalid.

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* see "Double Feature Night: '12.3 The Day' + 'The President's Last (going with a) Bang'"

** the opposition may try to impeach HAN in order to put its assembly speaker WOO Won-sik in his shoes, but shan't get a 2/3 vote. Removing the last resistance to LEE Jae-myung in the justice system could prove much easier, but would retrospectively prove YOON right on one of the justifications he used for his appalling martial law.

Double Feature Night: '12.3 The Day' + 'The President's Last (going with a) Bang'

Last night, YOON Suk-yeol's political suicide lasted less than one hour. There was no scenario in which the lamest of all ducks could implement an actual martial law on the ground, and when I saw the media at the National Assembly and MPs walking in, I knew for sure I could go back to sleep.

 

Proving once more that he has no political skill whatsoever (was he following advice from his expert in anal acupuncture?), YOON decided to go with a bang, declaring the first martial law since the Gwangju massacre era, almost on the anniversary of CHUN Doo-hwan's coup...

Last night's double feature: '12.12 The Day' or 'The President's Last Bang'?

All that to make a point and denounce the way the opposition is abusing its legislative majority to undermine the nation.

Even if the argument is not unfounded, YOON has not been a model of probity himself, and using the ultimate political nuclear weapon is not the way for an utterly unpopular president to treat democracy and an assembly democratically elected in a landslide one year earlier. 

Furthermore, unlike the controversial 2020 landslide (international media criticized the timing, which resulted in a referendum on the handling of COVID by the MOON Jae-in administration, who would have lost massively if the elections had been held a few weeks earlier during the Daegu crisis), last year's rout was mostly owned by YOON: yes his record was torpedoed by the legislative branch, but he scored too many own goals to deserve any shot at victory.

Needless to say, both sides of the aisle (HAN Dong-hoon and LEE Jae-myung) denounced yesterday's folly, and now YOON Suk-yeol has no choice but to step down or to face impeachment and give way to the next lame Duck(soo) in line, Prime Minister HAN Duck-soo.

My post right after the announcement of the martial law:

#YoonSukyeol declared #martiallaw in #Korea to make a point: accusing the national assembly of 'dictatorship', of willing to impeach him and take over judicial power, of undernining the nation, and for some MPs, of working for #NorthKorea. A radical move naturally denounced by both sides of the aisle (#HanDonghoon & #LeeJaemyung), who have the power to undo that move by vote, provided they manage to convene.
Reminders: Korea's #balanceofpower worked perfectly to remove #ParkGeunhye but was later distorted under #MoonJaein to protect LJM and friends from #justice. Named by Moon to reform justice, YSY refused that unplanned distortion of #democracy and resisted, eventually rising to win the presidency against LJM, but without a legislative majority.
Like Moon before him, Yoon disappointed on core principles. His outrage vs outrage strategy seems likely to backfire considering his abysmal popularity ratings.

My post after the confirmation of its withdrawal:

Votes cast, #martiallaw withdrawn. As expected, point made totally inaudibly and counter-productively...

The lamest of all ducks, #YoonSukyeol proved once more his total lack of political skills. This suicidal stunt not only fuels the opposition but also undermines the last counterpowers standing.

#Democracy wins, but #Korea's #balanceofpower remains broken, and leadership change remains needed on both sides.

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Short termed, short sighted

For the second time in a row, the left won in a landslide elections they were losing a few weeks earlier: in 2020, COVID19 replaced the election by a self congratulatory referendum on how the nation contained the pandemic, and in 2024, the executive power piled up unforced errors at an almost comical pace. In-between, conservatives did win the 2022 presidential election, but only by the narrowest of margins, a litany of gaffes and disastrous campaign choices almost fully depleting the considerable headstart the unpopular outgoing administration had kindly granted them.

YOON Suk-yeol simply forgot his core mission: restoring Korea's moral compass following the PARK Geun-hye and MOON Jae-in failures. Instead of defusing crises by discarding bad apples early on, he stubbornly protected people who kept undermining his whole administration, and reforms led by moderate pragmatists went unnoticed as reactionaries sparked new outrage all over the place. The former prosecutor never understood what politics and campaigning entail, never realized how disconnected he looks, never measured how good PR at home matters more than easy stunts overseas. 

If we all knew he wasn't much of a visionary leader, we didn't suspect him to be that blind. YOON can't remain this clumsy, old school administrator wasting time and energy micromanaging everything instead of delegating and focusing on the big picture. Typically, why put yourself in the position of the target for a reform as tricky as healthcare, when presidents usually use ministers as fuses they can discard when things go sour?

Now this lame duck has no choice but to take a step back, get rid of the swarm of old* retrogrades torpedoing his every moves, and focus on his core mission with a more inclusive approach. Get the nation ready for its next big crisis (Trump 2?)... If he can.

Now YOON is not the only major loser of these elections.

Yes there was simply no contest between a well oiled blue machine and a rickety red mess, yes the record turnout (67%, a 32-year high) made even clearer the victory of the former, but for all that progressives didn't win either.

The left (in blue, and also on the left of the map) won 63.6% of all districts (81% in the capital region)

Because LEE Jae-myung managed to get rid of all opposition within his ranks, leaving no platform for the progressives and moderates who wanted to restore the values of KIM Dae-jung and ROH Moo-hyun to stand upon.

LEE is clearly not a KIM or a ROH, an inspiring leader with a strong sense of justice. More like TRUMP, he mostly cares about himself and avoiding justice, and his program essentially consists in retribution against his opponents.

Actually, YOON's failure is best illustrated by LEE Jae-myung, CHOO Mi-ae, and CHO Kuk emerging as the ultimate winners. The first words of CHO Kuk, as exit polls predicted a supermajority for the left, said it all: it was all about changing the constitution, impeaching president YOON Suk-yeol and PPP interim leader HAN Dong-hoon. But exit polls were spectacularly off the mark, and the left didn't increase its tally all the way to the 200 seats that would have enabled CHO's dreams.

Where's the hope? Where's the vision for the future?  Who can emerge left or right to prevent a LEE Jae-myung presidency or another disappoinment? 

And how will LEE himself evolve to seize the opportunity? Because LJM is not DJT; he's much smarter, he knows that he can't hide anymore, that he must propose something with his large majority. Maybe expose new faces, new masks to hide behind.

Korea can't hide anymore either. Demographics, the long neglected elephant in the room, have at last become a national emergency. Like the environment, North Korea, the economy, justice, internal divisions.

I keep hoping common sense and common ground will prevail, but time is running out.

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* as well as the young ones. LEE Jun-seok has survived the blue tsunami and remains a toxic nuisance.

Seoul Village Season XVIII

(*NB I was finishing this post when I learned about the Assassination attempt on LEE Jae-myung in Busan - I decided not to alter what I wrote below)

Even if it will only start on February 10 with the lunar new year, happy Year of the Blue Dragon.

We can't tell which flames 2024 will throw at us, but let's wish we won't get too much sabre-rattling from the North (3G KIM Jong-un? 4G KIM Ju-ae a.k.a. Joseon's Morning Star General?), the South (Taiwan strait, East China Sea?). the West (a third front after Eastern Europe and the Middle East?). or even the East (so far, Fumio KISHIDA plays it much smarter and more efficiently than fellow Nippon Kaigi predecessor Shinzo ABE to restore the lobby's Imperial Japan revival dreams).

We know for sure that the new year will bring us critical elections in Korea (April 10) and the US (November 5), and that in both cases, the key issue remains 'will moderate at last manage to get rid of controversial figures that have been undermining democracy and their own parties for years?'

A return of Donald TRUMP would undoubtedly weaken US presence in the region and jeopardize South Korea's security. The lack of courage of moderates within GOP ranks leaves the job of removing this cancer to judges, and should TRUMP make it all the way to the RNC, he would face a struggling Joe BIDEN and get the support of a third candidate likely to siphon a lot of ballots off the incumbent (the inept Robert F. KENNEDY Jr only runs on his name and Republican funds).

Korea can't seem to remove its own destructive cells from both ends of the spectrum, but at least there are signs that moderates are starting to realize that their parties have no future with people like LEE Jun-seok on the right and LEE Jae-myung on the left*. 

Toxic anti-feminist LEE Jun-seok is threatening to found his own party ahead of the elections, and contributed to discourage IHN Yohan/ John LINTON and his short-lived innovation committee supposed to reform an irrelevant PPP.

Korea's own TRUMP, LEE Jae-myung, resists all demands to quit as DP head - like the 45th US president, he only cares about himself and eluding jail. His party courageously accepted to end his impunity but justice, crippled as much as the police by the controversial reforms of YOON Suk-yeol's predecessor, can't reach him, even as deaths linked to the scandals surrounding him keep piling up.

At least, moderates seem to have been gaining some momentum lately. LEE Nak-yon to the left and HAN Dong-hoon to the right, far from being the divisive figures painted as devils by radical media from the opposite sides, are taking the right steps for the future; LEE by taking a moral stand against the DP's controversial leader (at last some hope to restore the values of KIM Dae-jung and ROH Moo-hyuns within the party), HAN by forming a dream team of advisors ticking at least on paper all the relevant boxes to fix the nation's structural divides.

But even before considering any potential presidential face-off for 2017, the unproductive stalemate between an often self-destructive executive power and an assembly controlled by an almost always obstructive opposition must end this coming April. Of course, that may not happen...

Another thing we already know about 2024: Korea will smash its own infamous record low fertility rate, now expected to nosedive down to .62.

A toxic global and local political climate, a toxic climate, period, and toxic tensions at all levels certainly don't help young Koreans (who already struggle to purchase a home) prioritize babies. For the first time this year, more strollers were sold for pets than for kids...

Mainstream media start paying attention to the not so long term consequences for the nation at the economic, social, but also political level - even a stronger than ever K9 unit won't stop tanks at the DMZ.

On one hand, ever more pressure on young Koreans, on the other, already less competition for decent universities... If that could mean down the road less hagwon - budongsan rat race insanity...

Let's talk about mental health, precisely. And not just because the suicide of Parasite actor LEE Sun-kyun ended an already far too tragic year 2023. 'It's okay not to be okay', and to talk about it. So reach out, don't let yourself and others slip down any kind of rabbit hole. And don't judge yourself or them if you or they do. It's a beautiful sign of strength to make a call that can save a life (Korea Suicide Prevention Center: 1393 - Life Line Korea: 1588.9191); it's a sign of great character to keep reading opinions you disagree with. 

We all know peace and love are hard to find, but we all can start by stopping making war at ourselves and each other. And yes, even in the darkest times, we must never forget to laugh. Because humor is all about facing tragedy. And yes again, we must never lose our sense of wonder, because for better or  for worse, life is full of wonder.

Have, literally, a wonderful new year.

UPDATE 202402

Scratch part of that. Days after I wrote these lines, LEE Nak-yon disgraced himself by palling around with the very noxious LEE Jun-seok. A short-lived but damning bromance...

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