Seoul 2030 - a software update

Mayor OH Se-hoon unveiled the 'Seoul Vision 2030' he announced on his inaugural address last April*, an occasion to highlight differences with his 'predesuccessor' PARK Won-soon.

By picking the slogan 'Seoul, a fair city that runs again', ever the ambitious OH delivers two not so subliminal political messages:

• I want to rally all citizens who want an end to the unfair system that's controlling local and national politics, and 
• it's not just Seoul that's moving again: I'm running again, with 2027 in sight.
  

The goal remains the same as a few months before he left office: to lift the capital into the World's top 5 cities. The difference is that since then, under PARK, Seoul has lost its momentum and regressed from 10th in 2010 to 17th last year, which makes the task all the more daunting. To foot the KRW 48 tn bill (USD 41 bn), OH bets on a surge in real estate revenues as well as on undisclosed budget trade-offs. Not sure the equation stands, but Seoul must do something to stop the bleeding as its population shrinks and its businesses struggle.

This 'Seoul Vision 2030' is more about software than about hardware. Typically, it doesn't challenge the urban planning part of 'Seoul Master Plan 2030' laid out in 2015, with its triangle of international hubs (historic center / Yeouido-Yeungdeungpo / Gangnam) and its 7 metropolitan hubs (Yongsan, Sangam-DMC-Susaek, Cheongnyangni-Wangsimni, Jamsil, Magok, Gasan-Daerim, Changdong-Sanggye). Such macro projects are freight trains that can't be rerouted at will. OH can't even stop lighter projects such as the controversial Gwanghwamun Square revamping**; only pause to adjust and adapt in order to limit the negative impacts and to improve urban continuity.

But of course, this being Seoul, a lot of real estate remains on the menu. And hundreds of thousands of new dwellings will be added to the existing oversupply.

The bad news is that redevelopment is unleashed on a large scale, with significant deregulation and the removal of key constraints (F.A.R.), and that a lot of the few remaining Seoul villages could suffer.

"Old #Seoul neighborhoods potentially open for redevelopment jumps from 14 to 50% through #Seoul's new #urbanism guidelines... brace for the worst." (20210527 - twitter.com/theseoulvillage/status/1397728062775513090)

Focusing around certain subway stations may help spare some of them, and result in Hapjeong-izing more neighborhoods (no mentions about new subway projects, but that could come, as usual, closer to next year's elections...):

"#Seoul confirms plan to 'revitalize' #subway station areas (250m radius around stations), starting with 13 pilot projects. Higher rise allowed, mixed uses residential / commercial / offices / services. Will #Hapjeong-style clusters multiply? I'd prefer more stations. #urbanism" (20210705 - twitter.com/theseoulvillage/status/1411963191089721346)

On the upside (literally), new neighborhood parks are planned in proto-urban limbos around Seoul mountains. If done properly (that's a big if), it could paradoxically protect the mountains themselves by creating sanitized but green buffer leisure spaces in stead of unlimited, littered gateways that push unruly crowds deeper into the wild. Most visitors would enjoy a pleasant moment without needing to reach any further, leaving more space to wildlife and respectful mountain lovers.

"#Seoul creates new neighborhood parks in decrepit mountainous areas where development projects have failed for 20 years, starting this year in #Cheonwangsan (#Cheongwandong and #Hangdong, #Gurogu) and #Choasan (#Changdong, #Dobonggu and later #Wolgyedong, #Nowongu). #urbanism"

(@theSeoulVillage 20210910 - twitter.com/theseoulvillage/status/1436132137258795017)

Seoul targets a 40% greenhouse gas reduction by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2050, but to achieve that, will it continue to outsource part of the dirty job to Gyeonggi-do (see "Seoul Power Play: One Less Nuclear Plant, One More Coal Plant")?

Obsessed with Seoul's business competitiveness, OH Se-hoon wants to seize a momentum and snatch as much of the Hong Kong exodus away from Singapore as possible, and to attract FDIs getting cautious about Korea's neighbors Japan (who wants to be the next Carlos GHOSN?) and China (hard-soft power supremacy challenged worldwide, investors wary of XI Jinping's authoritarian moves). Foreign media were already flocking in before South Korea's government pushed its own laws stiffling press freedom.  In that context, the creation of an agency modeled after Singapore's EDB makes perfect sense. How it articulates with existing entities (SBA etc) remains to be seen.

How Yeouido can turn into an international finance magnet without structural reforms at the national level also puzzles me.

Like during his first mandate, OH wants to boost international tourism, this time up to 20M visitors a year. He insists on culture which is of course essential, but that will take more than a 'Seoul Festa' and kpop events.

I'm more interested in how Seoul intends to nurture and boost the local startup ecosystem, deep and wide. Hosting 40 unicorns by 2030? that's mostly for the show. Building new clusters? as if there weren't enough already... I prefer the concept of mentoring programs for seniors: recent trends already show more 50-year+ executives joining previously almost exclusively young crews, but there's a need for a much broader-reaching, more inclusive approach. 

The 5 pillars of 'Seoul Vision 2030' are "fairness, coexistence, safety***, future sensitivity, global leadership", and 'future sensitivity' is a nice way of saying the whole population should be involved, innovation requires pedagogy and respect for everyone.

"Fairness", and "coexistence" are the most beautiful and difficult challenges. Seoul aims at equal opportunity, fostering women activity and youth employment, seniors access to lifelong learning programs, Seoul Learn online education platform for underprivileged students... Basic income will even be tested. Ending the gender war among younger generations should be added as a core Seoul Development Goal.

By the way, on Thursday, the 3rd SBAU (Seoul Biennale of Architecture and Urbanism) kicked off. An anticlimatic event in a most complex climate, but always the opportunity to connect a few new dots and to confront different visions of different cities:

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* The launch of a Seoul Vision 2030 Committee was the 5th pledged made by the new Seoul Mayor:

"

The 5 pledges of #Seoul mayor #OhSehoon (NB: good luck with that):" (@theSeoulVillage 20210428 - twitter.com/theseoulvillage/status/1387308187209015300)

** see among others "Gwanghwamun Square 3.0 re-Deep-Surfaces"

*** mostly in a pandemic context.

Trump: The Art of the Dealapidation (Exclusive Interview)

Seoul Village: 'Mr President, Welcome to our Korean Errlines'

Donald J. Trump: 'Thanks for having me. I must confess that I was a bit jealous of KIM Jong-un - you already interviewed him three times*'.
 
SV: 'You seem to envy a lot of things from dictators'
 
DJT: 'Look, the whole people of North Korea is forced to love KIM, to attend his inaugurations, to vote for him, to worship him. All the media are compelled to praise him. He doesn't have to worry about laws, human right or justice... I'm great, but I'm not sure I would be able to achieve that before my third term.'
 
SV: 'And he's not even half your age'.
 
DJT: 'Isn't that awesome? This young lad is so talented, he can even ride horses like a stable genius. No wonder we have such a terrific relationship.'

SV: 'We're talking about a cruel dictator, a torturer who murdered even people from his own family.'
 
DJT: 'I know, I'm still a bit weak..., but I'm working on it! And if Robert Mueller manages to have Don Jr flip on me, I won't hesitate to sic my mob friends at both.'
 
SV 'That's the spirit. And speaking of spirits, how could you get so friendly with KIM without boozing along? You don't drink a drop of alcohol'. 

DJT 'We binged on junk food, and you know I don't need to drink to embarrass myself. Plus we were both so high on ourselves... We spent our time boasting about our private resorts, and I showed him my Big Button, the interior of The Beast...'
 
SV 'That's your armored limo.'
 
DJT 'Right. I refurbished it completely with Trump gold, and portraits of the Trump dynasty: me, myself, and I. He didn't show me his set of wheels, but he got his bodyguards run a marathon around it while we chatted. I loved it so much, I asked Jim Mattis to add this stunt to our next military parade.'
 
SV 'So your Singapore Summit was a perfect honeymoon, yet there's a debate about the deal you made.'
 
DJT 'I know, I know, I basically agreed with everything Jong-un asked, I torpedoed our joint drills with South Korea, and to make things worse I said that my threats of last year were just rethoric, so that he doesn't feel any pressure anymore. Anyway as soon as I agreed to meet him, I opened the door to Xi Jinping, who already eased the sanctions, and guaranteed Little Rocket Man he had his back - Oops, I'd better save this nickname for when he turns bad again.'
 
SV 'You are taking a lot of risks. You insisted on playing it on your gut feeling, so if or rather when KIM betrays you, you will own it 100%.'
 
DJT 'Absolutely impossible: the buck never stops here, remember? I already said that if he betrays me, I won't apologize, but find excuses. As usual, I'll blame Obama, Hillary, Comey, the Democrats, the deep state, CNN, Hillary, China, the Swamp, or maybe, for a change, Hillary.'

'Take me to your leader' 20180606 (Dennis Rodman lands in Singapore for the Trump-Kim Summit)

SV 'This deal is not only a textbook case of terrible negotiation, but also very bad for America'.
 
DJT 'First, I've never been good at deals, and actually I didn't write 'The Art of the Deal' myself. Haven't you noticed that everything I do goes morally and financially bankrupt. Me? I only know how to bully people, and when they are women to grab them by the...'
 
SV '... I get your first point. And the second one?'
 
DJT 'Of course I know it's bad for America. Why do you think Putin chose me? Do you really believe I'm putting America First? It's always been all bout me. In order to exist, I need to re-create the World everyday in the image of myself, each time while making big splashes on prime time. What I always do is first criticizing things as the worst that ever existed, then promising deals better than anything that existed before, then destroying everything without proposing a solution, then seeing what happens, and then accusing others it it fails. And behold, it was very good'.
 
SV 'Amen to that. But in the case of North Korea, you're breaking things that are highly radioactive... Should South Korea and Japan worry?'
 
DJT 'I don't care about them, but MOON Jae-in has been on cloud nine ever since he stopped my 'bloody nose' plans, and Shinzo Abe, who like me adores fellow strongmen, is already planning a trip to Pyongyang. Anyway I told you: North Korea is no longer a nuclear threat. Won't happen! Now please give me my Nobel Peace Prize.'
 
SV 'Not so fast. You know this deal can't work.'
 
DJT 'Of course it can't. That's why I asked Mike Pompeo to tell Jong-un to take his time, and just do something nice a few weeks before each of my reelections, starting in 2020.'
 
SV 'How about this year's Midterms?'
 
DJT 'These don't count as elections: I'm not on the ballot'

The Groundsparing Declaration - 20180612

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* see "Exclusive interview with KIM Jong-un - Season III" (March 2018), "EXCLUSIVE-Second interview with KIM Jong-un" (February 2017), "Exclusive interview with KIM Jong-un" (December 2013) - all fake, like this one of course!

---
(from SeoulVillage on Twitter):
#TrumpKimSummit - never a dud moment?

Kim-Park-Lee Dynasty Updates

North Korea offered their 'deepest condolences' to Singapore for the loss of LEE Kuan Yew. Rodong Sinmun didn't specify whether they were referring to LEE Kuan Yew the dynasty founder, LEE Kuan Yew the capitalist nation builder, or LEE Kuan Yew the 'democrat'. 

Meanwhile, as expected, South Korean conservatives are drawing parallels between Singapore's founder and their icon PARK Chung-hee. Of course, her daughter PARK Geun-hye will attend the funerals: 

Park Geun-hye to attend Lee Kuan Yew's funerals. As far as controversial nation builder father go, Lee Hsien Loong luckier so far - twitter.com/theseoulvillage/status/580173247053889536

PGH didn't attend Nelson Mandela's funerals, but she'd never met him personally. And she did meet LKY, an admirer of South Korea. Korea JoongAng Daily unearthed today the photo of his 1979 visit, between the acting First Lady, and a man who would be assassinated seven days later:

Another KJD cover with Park Geun-hye. With Lee Kuan Yew and her dad Park Chung-hee (7 days before his assassination) - twitter.com/theseoulvillage/status/580504028079091712

As Singapore learns to live in post-LKY times, South Korea seems to distance itself from the towering figure of its recent history. PARK Chung-hee recently dropped behind ROH Moo-hyun as the all time favorite president in the polls, and the recent inauguration of the museum in his Sindang-dong house didn't make a splash - BTW here's a virtual visit, courtesy Chosun Ilbo:



PGH has been eluding the PCH issue ever since she was elected, letting ultra-conservatives run the agenda and damage both her image and that of her father, when to the contrary she should be facing history and showing the right example to Japan and to the world (see for instance 3rd part of "Comfort Women': No Resolution Without Resoluteness. From Everyone, Please."*).

It's even more counter productive that MOON Jae-in, who precisely embodies the ROH Moo-hyun line, has made a significant move towards appeasement by visiting the dictator's grave last month, following his nomination as the opposition leader (NPAD - New Politics Alliance for Democracy).

MOON Jae-in on Sejongno, procession for ROH Moo-hyun funerals (see "A Yellow Sea For Roh Moo-hyun" - May 2009)

The time has come for South Korea to reunite, and for South Korean politics to move on in a dispassionate way. That's possible, particularly now that pro-North Korean extremists have at long last been sidelined (even more after the recent attack on US Ambassador Mark Lippert). Silencing the ultra-conservatives that keep polluting the debate at the other end of the spectrum would definitely help.

Setting PARK Chung-hee's record straight across the aisle is both a necessity and an opportunity for the nation, and the president can't dodge that personal duty / waste that personal golden opportunity any longer.

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* BTW memo to Shinzo: do you also want to rewrite LEE Kuan Yew's autobiography? It includes his personal memories of Imperial Japan abuses, including sexual slavery.

TEMASEK goes shopping

Two thirds of the board of Temasek Holdings are visiting Korea these days, but if it weren't for KIM Jong-un antics, the whole company would have come.

Temasek CEO HO Ching is determined to invest in the country. The wife of Singapore's PM LEE Hsien Loong has run this government's investment arm* for nine years, and boosted its portfolio to S$ 198 bn (US$ 160 bn) end of march 2012.

Why Korea? A mature market doesn't fit into this profitable powerhouse's top priorities (China, India, nations with a growing middle class), but Temasek is also looking for countries with a clear technological and marketing edge, and future leaders in sectors like biomed or IT.

Temasek needs new growth drivers, and usually invests big. But if they were looking for quick bucks, they could also tap into the booming markets of Latin America (1% of their Asia-centered portfolio**) or Africa, Central Asia and the Middle East (2%)



Total Shareholder Return since inception (1974). Temasek took a hit in 2009, rebounded the following year, remained flat afterwards 


First, the holding doesn't seem comfortable far from its comfort zone, and doesn't recruit board members far from the local political sphere - strong ties to the Ministry of Finance.

Second, Singapore is competing with Korea in many fields, and the government may be seeing an opportunity in the the nation's unbalanced ecosystem to shop promising SMEs for its own IT and biomed clusters.

S'pore dispersal?

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* not to be confused with GIC (Government of Singapore Investment Corporation)
** Temasek portfolio as of 2012/03/31: 30% in Singapore (controls many national champions, including Singapore Technologies Group, where HO Ching worked before joining Temasek), 42% in the rest of Asia, 14% in Australia and New Zealand, 11% in North America and Europe, 2% in Africa, Central Asia and the Middle East, 1% in Latin America.