Justice under the rug

Unsurprisingly disappointed by politicians of both sides who decided to sweep justice under the rug: the Democratic Party by failing to deliver LEE Jae-myung to justice, YOON Suk-yeol by chosing closer ties with Tokyo over justice for the victims of Imperial Japan's forced labor.

At least, a higher proportion of Korea's Democratic lawmakers chose the high road than their American Republican counterparts: whereas the GOP overwhelmingly supported Trump when he faced a well deserved impeachment. only a tiny majority helped the Korean Trump preserve his immunity. Across the country, a vast majority was in favor of LEE's arrest, but the party made the wrong decision, and had the gall to pretend that democracy was under attack because for the first time, an opposition leader was investigated and issued an arrest warrant, whilst LEE precisely seeked party leadership for the sole purpose of eluding justice one more time! LEE even selfishly stole the safest seat of an incumbent in Incheon to guarantee his personal survival, letting the rest of the ship sink during the elections... 

As we've already seen, this is clearly not the party of KIM Dae-jung and ROH Moo-hyun anymore, but a group controlled by a clique that betrayed their ideals of justice and democracy, and only care about their own interests. I wish the party had seized the opportunity to cleanse their ranks from these thugs. Now lets hope the truly progressive side, that proved it still existed during this vote, will gain enough momentum to reform the party, restore decency, and build a more sustainable, inclusive platform.

Of course, Korea's right remains another kind of mess, but internal debates are a bit more public, even if YOON Suk-yeol managed to get his guy on top for next year's election (not sure KIM Gi-hyeon is a future-proof leader, but the selection of THAE Yong-ho in the Supreme Council sends an interesting message to Pyongyang elites: you can make it in the South if you reject the North Korean regime). If YOON decided to make the most of his lameduckhood to push for reforms that are not necessarily popular, he just played a very risky and unpopular card on the forced labor issue: the victims will receive a financial compensation, but paid by Korean companies that benefited from the controversial 1965 treaty, and without any apology from Japan.

From the start, YOON's eagerness to appease Tokyo seemed heading in this kind of direction. I'm all for diplomacy and warming ties with our neighbors, but I'm not okay with eluding key issues. Again, the victims of Imperial Japan's institutional Forced labor and sexual slavery never received any official apologies from any Japanese government (non binding declarations by individuals? yes, but that's not the same, and I'm not even talking about Shinzo Abe's anti-apologies - see "Decoding the Abe Statement: "why apologize for crimes Japan never committed?"). 

 YOON Suk-yeol was not elected for his obsolete Miltonfriedmanian program but to restore some sense of justice, particularly following the PARK Geun-hye scandals and the MOON Jae-in betrayals. Eluding resolution can't be the solution.

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KIM Yo-jong Crash Landing On You

Within a couple of weeks and with considerable help from the South Korean government, KIM Yo-jong pretty much effortlessly achieved her goals: claiming head of state level, beefing up her military credentials, boosting campaigns against defectors on both sides of the DMZ, paving the way for a conversation with China...

Well that escalated quickly, but without really escalating that badly. Just follow @theSeoulVillage Twitter timeline:

1) KIM Yo-jong's first and decisive victory came within hours, and probably as a surprise to herself: shortly after she asked South Korea to outlaw counter-propaganda leaflets from defectors, Cheong Wa Dae obeyed, and a new law did just that. Regardless of what you think of these leaflets, in a democracy, the executive and the legislative powers simply don't give in that quickly to someone who is not even the head of a dictatorship. Worse, this came as a betrayal to defectors, who got vilified on both sides of the DMZ, ruining overnight decades of efforts to help them overcome discrimination. The move, condemned by Human Rights Watch, echoed last year's appalling surrender of two defectors to North Korean authorities, against all normal procedures.

"MOON Jae-in gives in again. Obeys KIM Yo-jong and bans leaflets..." (@theSeoulVillage - twitter.com/theseoulvillage/status/1268448381019418624)

"A few hours. All it took for the ruling party to come up with a law pleasing #KimYojong. Laws against #discrimination or stalkers? Not a priority. #NorthKorea first it seems" (@theSeoulVillage - twitter.com/theseoulvillage/status/1268692368888225792)

2) In the days that followed, North Korea said they would sever the communications with the South, and refused to answer any call. By anything but a coincidence, and as the DPRK staged demonstrations against defectors, Seoul decided out of the blue (house) to slash their reallocation budgets, effectively stabbing defectors in the back once more:

"Open season for #NorthKorea #defectors, continued: after obeying #KimYojong, #MoonJaein govt keeps destroying decades of work to help them overcome #discrimination in #SouthKorea" (@theSeoulVillage - twitter.com/theseoulvillage/status/1271465125011009538) - Jeongmin Kim @jeongminnkim · Jun 12 - South Korea will cut this year’s budget for North Korean defector resettlement in the South, Seoul’s unification ministry confirmed

 

3) Why stop when you're on a roll and everybody's playing your game? The very same day, KIM Yo-jong rewards this new zealous good deed from MOON Jae-in by upping the ante, and to announce that she will 'exercise (her) power authorized by the Supreme Leader':

"#SaturdayNightFever (Will #KimYojong's latest demand/threat pay off as well as the last one?) (@theSeoulVillage - twitter.com/theseoulvillage/status/1271796329316925442)
Laura Bicker @BBCLBicker · Jun 13 North Korea’s Kim Yo Jong tonight. “We will soon take a next action. By exercising my power authorized by the Supreme Leader, our Party and the state, I gave an instruction to the arms of the department in charge of the affairs with enemy to decisively carry out the next action”

"From Photobomb Queen to Bomb Queen, #KimYojong definitely cementing her badass 😎  profile. Note how Kim The Fourth put Military First (and next) in her pocket. Already calling the shots while Bro #KimJongun downs them?"  (@theSeoulVillage - twitter.com/theseoulvillage/status/1271988923904876545)

4) From then on, we knew that she had to walk the talk, and to do very soon something miliary-ish. Something destructive. Something more spectacular than blowing up Punggye-ri's shack outhouse, but something less lethal and war-like than the Yeongpyeong Shelling or the Cheonan Sinking. Something that would reach over the MDL to hit South Korea:

"There's no defusing, #NorthKorea must strike, and that will cement #KimYojong's credentials as Kim The Fourth. The question is less when (soon) than how." (@theSeoulVillage - twitter.com/theseoulvillage/status/1272684122629042176)
"#DPRK must somehow destroy something, but it should be, on Paekdu Richter's scale, more significant than blowing up #Punggyeri shack outhouse, but less lethal than #Yeonpyeong Shelling or #Cheonan Sinking. Across the #DMZ anyway... #baekduology" (@theSeoulVillage - twitter.com/theseoulvillage/status/1272684124411580416)
"That, of course, with #NorthKorea's ongoing #hacking campaigns..." ((@theSeoulVillage - twitter.com/theseoulvillage/status/1272684764097462272)

4)  As many predicted, KIM Yo-jong ended up blowing up Kaesong's inter-korean liaison office. No DML crossing, but you could at least see something from the other side. The greyish images from the South failed to make this underwhelming event more impressive. Basically, the North shoots itself in the foot to destroy the shoes offered by the South.... Kim The Fourth? More Baby Shark than Jaws.

"A minima disruption: #NorthKorea eventually blew up the Inter-#Korea liaison office minutes before stock exchange closing. Disappointingly predictable." (@theSeoulVillage - twitter.com/theseoulvillage/status/1272788161467265024)

"Didn't even cross the #MDL" (@theSeoulVillage - twitter.com/theseoulvillage/status/1272844777910726662)

"So for her maiden strike, #KimYojong scored rather low (scare-wise, less Jaws, more #BabyShark-doo-doo-doo). Embarrassing, but #SouthKorea's 'retaliation' is simply laughable: cut the electricity of the just blown up liaison office!" (@theSeoulVillage - twitter.com/theseoulvillage/status/1272852891741483014)

5) The next day, North Korea released their own colorful images, more firework-like, with splinters and debris flying everywhere, damaging nearby buildings. Of course the aim was not to neatly demolish a nondescript low rise building, but to simulate a military attack on a Southern landmark. Barely more impressive than blowing up mock-ups of the Blue House, but from a propaganda point of view, mission accomplished for (future?) Marshalll KIM Yo-jong.

"When #NorthKorea blows up something, sparks have to fly. For the #Kaesong inter-#Korea liaison office, debris flew in every direction, probably causing unnecessary damage. But what counts is the photo op, to help Photobomb Queen #KimYojong become Bomb Queen Kim The Fourth:" (@theSeoulVillage - 20200617)

So basically KIM Yo-jong succeeded beyond her expectations thanks to very complacent partners down South. Unification Minister KIM Yeon-chul resigned, and the two names advanced to succeed him used to be activists in favor of reunification under North Korean rule... doesn't look as if the KIM Dynasty should fear much on that front.

Of course, this is not about North vs South. The KIMs don't expect much from there, and want progress elsewhere. The US? They will put more pressure on Donald TRUMP, but closer to November in order to get the best deal / quid-pro-quo against an October Surprise. Depending on the fallout of John BOLTON bombs, opportunities may rise in the short term. What they seem to be needing urgently is support at home and from China.

As THAE Yong-ho noted, North Korea often bullies South Korea in order to get the US involved, and ultimately China called to the rescue. And nowadays, the situation doesn't seem that rosy inside the hermit kingdom, where coronavirus could well be raging. NK News mentioned embassies abroad trying to collect PPEs and other medical resources. Defectors say support seems to be eroding in Pyeongyang, and the lower middle class took a big hit when scores of pigs where culled (unlike cows, they are private properties).

The focus on defectors struck me as telling of a truly dire situation. Yes the regime needs scapegoats to divert from its failures, but acknowledging the importance of people who fled it clearly feeds THAE Yong-ho's growing aura in the North. That's a risk, but punishing those who spread news of him anywhere (North or South) has obviously become a matter of survival.

"#NorthKorea #propaganda focusing on #defectors, giving them extra visibility. Regime taking all sorts of risks on non-state scapegoats during #pandemic: popularity of #Thaeyongho & co is a systemic risk for them. The message: no mercy for 'traitors' who watch defector materials"  (@theSeoulVillage - twitter.com/theseoulvillage/status/1270526531111014400)

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No Collision?

Last year, KIM Jong-un was about to perform historic walks across the demarcation line with MOON Jae-in (see "Chirps vs Tweets"). This time, he was hours away from boarding a train to Vladivostok, and Putin. But where will he be heading for, right after the 2020 Asan Plenum: Japan? Switzerland? NYC? The ICC? And if KJU ends up six feet under, will it be because of a collision with the US? an obstruction of his windpipe? a Saturday Night Massacre caused by the big bang of Mount Paekdu's supervolcano? Who knows?

"#KimJongun: "Vladimir Vladimirovich, can you help me lift #sanctions against #NorthKorea?" Putin: ..." (20190424 - https://twitter.com/theseoulvillage/status/1120932441219145730)

We do know one thing: in these tricky and uncertain times, the Asan Plenum is always a very special moment to better feel the pulse of our very special peninsula, our very special region, and our very only planet. This year felt even more complete with much more female voices among the experts invited on stage*, and a most powerful, liberated North Korean voice: THAE Yong-ho's.

Here was someone who illustrated admirably this year's theme, 'Korea's Choice'. THAE risked his life, and chose Korea. Not North Korea, not South Korea, but as a true patriot, the Korea that he believes all Koreans should aim for.

⚡️ “Asan Plenum 2019 - Korea's Choice” in tweets:https://t.co/lUPXmlByTj #AsanPlenum @asaninst #Korea #ThaeYeongho

— Seoul Village (@theseoulvillage) April 25, 2019

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* see Asan Institute's Asan Plenum 2019 program. If you don't see Trump and China on the menu, they are of course all over the map.

Day 1 (April 23, 2019):
Welcoming Remarks: HAHM Chaibong
Keynote Address: James B. Steinberg
Plenary Session I (G1 or G2?): Choi Kang, Evelyn Goh, Douglas H. Paal, James B. Steinberg, Zhang Tuosheng, Zhao Xiaozhuo
Session 1:
- ROK-U.S. Alliance: Sue Mi Terry, Kim Sung-han, Marc Knapper, Sydney A. Seiler, Soeya Yoshihide, Zhu Feng.
- U.S.-Japan Alliance: Park Cheol hee, Kent E. Calder, Richard McGregor, Tokuchi Hideshi, Wang Dong.
- NATO: Choi Jinwoo, Ian Anthony, Pascal Boniface, Kestutis Paulauskas, Brooke A. Smith-Windsor, Alexander Vershbow.
Plenary Session II (Collective Memory or Collective Future?): Philip Stephens, Hahm Chaibong, David Harris, Aleksandra Gliszczynska-Grabias, Volker Stanzel.
Book Launch (Asan CHUNG Ju-yung's Autobiography 'Born of This Land: My Life Story'): Hahm Chaibong, Chung Mong-joon, Edwin J. Feulner, Karen E. House, Lee Hong Koo, Paul D. Wolfowitz.
Night Sessions:
- North Korea’s Choice: Nuclear Issue: Jung H. Pak, Chun Yungwoo, Bruce Klingner, Nishino Junya, Jonathan Pollack, Scott A. Snyder.
- North Korea’s Choice: Economic Reform: Go Myong-hyun, Thomas Byrne, Furukawa Katsuhisa, John Park (and Hazel A. Smith).

Day 2 (April 24, 2019):
Plenary Session III (Nationalism or Internationalism?): Lee Chung Min, Pascal Boniface, Edwin J. Feulner, G. John Ikenberry, Yuli Tamir, Paul D. Wolfowitz.
Session 2:
- Is Democracy in Crisis?: Gilbert Rozman, Ladan Bouroumand, Chu Yun-han, Martin Fackler, Karen E. House, Philip Stephens.
- Immigrants or Refugees?: Marie McAuliffe, Mely Caballero-Anthony, Gordon Flake, Lee Jasmine, Neil G. Ruiz, Jay Song.
- Values or Interests?: J. James Kim, Kent E. Calder, Fujisaki Ichiro, Gao Fei, Linda Jakobson, T. J. Pempel.
Session 3:
- Free Trade or Fair Trade?: Asif Hasan Qureshi, Ahn Dukgeun, Fukagawa Yukiko, Patrick Messerlin, Tami E. Overby.
- Arms Control: Kato Yoichi, Abe Nobuyasu, Alexander Gabuev, Park Jiyoung, Nicolas Regaud.
- Technology Competition or Cooperation?: Lee Dongmin, Tai Ming Cheung, Min Eun Joo, Michael Sulmeyer, Yaacob Bin Ibrahim.
Plenary Session IV (CVID or “Peaceful” co-existence?): Choi Kang, Evans J. R. Revere, Yamaguchi Noboru, Yao Yunzhu, Thae Yong-ho.