Fire, fury, and de-escalation

As Seoul experiences its first tropical nights of the year, we're all wondering even more acutely how climate change will affect our daily lives in the peninsula.

First, climate change is already happening, and we already know for sure that global temperatures will rise higher than targeted during the Paris Agreement. Key tipping points have already been passed, from the ever-shrinking Amazon rain forest, now emitting more CO2 than it absorbs, to the vanishing glaciers and polar caps, to the geographically closer permafrost collapse.

Permafrost covers a quarter of exposed land surfaces on the Northern Hemisphere, releasing as it melts frightening volumes of methane in our atmosphere already saturated with greenhouse gases. If scientists have already estimated the ginormous volumes to come, it's very hard to predict how, at the local level, they will directly and indirectly disrupt currents that structurally impact (e.g. North Korea's colder seas, the Siberian air masses...). 

After a 20th century where Korea already underwent a rise of +1.8 Celsius in average temperature (more than the rest of the World), this one promises to go medieval: the 2020 South Korea Climate Change Assessment Report (Ministry of Environment and Korea Meteorological Administration) announced that by 2100, the number of heatwave days (over 33 celsius) would more than triple from 10.1 to 35.5 per year. Winters will be shortened by one whole month, and we'll experience more precipitations and extreme episodes.

 

Rise in numbers of heatwave days (business as usual scenario)

Over the past 30 years, I've seen Winters become not only less cold (e.g. the Han River seldom freezes beyond smaller patches), but also much drier, which probably contributes to wildfires that are more violent and difficult to tame (58% of them happen during the Spring, when the nation is at its driest). Mountain soils get washed away at the first rain, landslides and floods multiply, and as seas rise, whole ecosystems are bound to disappear (tidal flats, wetlands)...

Korea wildfires on March 5, 2022 (NASA)

The social, economic, political impacts of climate change can't be underestimated. Beyond competitiveness, that's a matter of survival, sometimes literally: the number of heat-related fatalities is expected to more than double by the end of the century, and diseases or pests that used to be contained to warmer climates are becoming endemic*.

Food security, highlighted by the war in Ukraine that exposed Korea's over-dependence on China for its sustenance, will become even more critical: by 2100, the production of rice will have dwindled by 25%. The stakes are even higher in North Korea, which relies much more on its own, ailing agricultural sector. In the region, logistics and geopolitics are already impacted by warmer seas (East Russia enjoys its own sea ports that don't freeze during the winters, new arctic routes emerge...). 

Korea destroyed its greenbelts, boosted its coal power, and crippled its nuclear power at the worst moment. In spite of a few significant projects, it's nowhere near it should be in renewables. Logically, the country scores very poorly when it should be setting the example:

Climate Action Tracker, Mars 2022

Water, biomass, and forest management is already a strategic challenge, particularly in a country where a lot of the trees share the same age thanks to the massive tree-planting campaign of the 60s. It would be nice to involve, once again, all the population in a collective effort that would benefit generations to come. 

Big cities, starting with Seoul, are already experimenting and benchmarking best practices, because everybody knows that when cities become the solution, differences can be made much faster. Obviously, a lot remains to be done. Making sure every new project should contribute to improving natural temperature control or water collection / management could help.

Korea tends to forget that its landscapes have been degraded far beyond urban environments, and again (see "From zombie maeul to seed village - from fake startup communities to real Communities-as-a-Startup"), the country must start reconsidering and rethinking its rural world as a key asset for the future.

Seoul Village 2022
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* BTW bad news on the pandemic front: experts expect a second massive wave of coronavirus cases from August as people will gather in confined, air conditioned area, and most of them will have lost a lot of resistance to the virus (most received their last dose of vaccine last year). 

Here comes the sun

Seoul city just published* a Request For Proposals for small solar power plants across the city.

Seoul Citizen's Solar Power Coop will operate the following sites:
- the Gangseo Agricultural and Fishery Wholesale Market in Balsan-dong, Gangseo-gu (16,635 sqm, 1,600 KW)
- the treatment station in Sangam-dong, Mapo-gu (3024 sqm, 270 KW)
- the Mangu youth center in Mangu-dong, Jungnang-gu (1,094 sqm, 100 KW)
- the Gangdong Bus Garage in Gangil-dong, Gangdong-gu (895 sqm, 90 KW)
- Dongbu Women's Center (Seoul Women's Foundation) in Jayang-dong, Gwangjin-gu (800 sqm, 80 KW)

The remaining three projects shall be handled by consortia:
- Amsa Water Purification Center in Amsa-dong, Gangdong-gu (10,130 sqm, 1,000 KW)
- Yeongdeungpo Arisu Water Purification Center in Yanghwa-dong, Yeongdeungpo-gu (9,177 sqm, 910 KW)
- Gangnam Resource Recovery Facility in Suseo-dong, Gangnam-gu (3,800 sqm, 380 KW)

Overall: 4.43 MW for 45,555 square meters, a classic ratio of 10 sqm for 1 KW.

Nice, but far from the 230 MW announced last may in Seoul's ambitious plan for hydrogen fuel cell power: by 2014, Seoul will boast power plants, plus 102 cells in buildings. Enough to serve 400,000 households.

Well the economics of solar energy are well known, and you have to start somewhere. And anyway, it's good to see Seoul make good use of its roofs, which are also getting greener by the day. I already mentioned a big boost more than two years ago (see incentives and projects in "Seoul Rooftops Go Green"), and this summer, the above pictured Dongdaemun Design Plaza alone has added 20,330 sqm: 55.3% on the tail, 29.7% on the Convention Hall, 14.9% on the Exhibition Hall. Five different species of sedums have been selected: less demanding than grass or other plants for maintenance, sebum is an interesting CO2 trap that also reduces dust concentration in the air.

Now how to fill the 80,000 sqm inside Zaha Hadid's dramatic empty shell? That's yet another challenge for Seoul Metropolitan Government.

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* "서울시 햇빛발전소 시범사업 제안서 공모 추가 공고" (seoul.go.kr 20120910)

The New Seven Wonders of Green Technologies

Except of course in the case of fair democratic elections, I tend to take popular votes with a grain of salt, particularly in the age of the internet. For instance, last year's intense lobbying to get Jeju-do in the list of the New 7 Wonders of Nature reminded me of that 1999 Time Magazine internet poll supposed to select the Man of the Century: at one point, following a surge by Turkish nationalists, Mustapha Kemal was leading in most categories, from best politician to best scientist and best artist. If the same poll were led today, Pyeongyang would probably ask millions of zombie computers to cast a ballot in favor of KIM Il-sung, or even KIM Jong-il, the most prolific author ever (according to the legend, KIM The Second wrote more than 1,500 books).

I do believe in crowdsourcing, though, and in the benefits of consulting non-experts. But you have to keep a clear editorial line and some level of expertise in order to tame the wildest pet projects (exhibit A, without any picture, please: the infamous 'floating island' built on the Han River after the design of an ordinary Seoul citizen, following an open call for suggestions).

New and exotic ways of tackling environmental challenges have probably come out of a recent brainstorming session organized by Seoul with its citizens ("Great Citizens' Debate On Reducing One Nuclear Power Plant" - April 16, 2012), and I have the confused feeling that there might be some correlation with the list of 7 "Green Technologies" announced last week by Seoul Metropolitan Government for its future R&D investments (KRW 1.5 bn next year).

In Seoul, 90% of greenhouse gas emissions come from buildings and transports, which explains the priority set, until now*, on energy saving technologies and processes, building efficiency, waste management, electric vehicles, fuel cells, public transportation, bikeshare programs, regulations against abuses in air-con / heating... But here, it's hard to find any kind of focus considering the - drum roll please - list of New 7 Wonders of Green Technologies (actually the "Support for Promotion of Green Technology Development in Seoul 2012")**:

1- "development of a power generator using low waterfalls"
2- "elimination of black carbon emanating from meat roasted on open fires in Korean restaurants"
3- "recycling of landfill-bound waste"
4- "development of an anaerobic digestion model and processes for maximizing methane production"
5- "technology for evaluating the performance of LED lighting systems"
6- "development of light LED street lamps focusing on forward lighting"
7- "technology for developing and maintaining natural grass school playgrounds"

Let's start with point 1. If hydropower for low waterfalls is not as worthy of the Ig Nobel Prize as a 50 year long study on knuckle-cracking (for this most essential piece of research, the last Prize recipient used himself as a guinea pig), it doesn't seem to be a priority for a city that does boast splendid mountains, but basically regulates Cheonggyecheon or the Hongjecheon Waterfall by using simple faucets.

To me, point 2 sounds like a bulgogi version of the "Clean Coal" imposture: instead of wasting money on R&D to eliminate "black carbon emanating from meat roasted on open fires in Korean restaurants", why not regulate the use of charcoal altogether? And even I, a BBQ-loving ogre, am fully aware that the best way to reduce the carbon footprint would be to eat less meat.

Now all the way down the list, to point 7. "Developing and maintaining natural grass school playgrounds"? The citizen who suggested this brilliant idea probably never tried to grow natural grass in a country with very dry and cold winters, and very hot and humid summers. No wonder many schools used dirt in the first place, switching to artificial turf when the technology got better and cheaper: you can enjoy green all year round without feeding Monsanto shareholders, and save for genuine biomass over the rest of your campus. If I were Seoul city, I'd rather invest in sustainable low-cost urban farming techniques that can work all year round (soil-less cultivation, vertical crops...), and replace all those acres of "vinyl houses" (the negation of sustainable farming and a visual pollution if I ever saw one), with genuine, "natural" grassland.

Seoul Mayor wants to give away land for citizens to tend small kitchen gardens and I see the point. The concept is very popular in Europe, and has a positive social impact at the micro level of small neighborhoods. It's also good for image, and Lotte Department Store recently installed one on its rooftop as a 'well-being' service to its customers. But implementing it on a large scale, with individuals often abusing chemicals to compete for the best shrubbery, could prove counter-productive. Such initiatives should always remain sincere, and, literally, 'grassroot'.

Until now, big cities have been the problem, and they have to become the solution as most humans live in urban environments. Yes, cities need more nature, and bringing the countryside into the city is always pleasant, but it's no more a solution than bringing the city into the countryside. Smart urban farming may also help solving the tricky food equation our planet is facing, and reduce the negative impacts of agriculture in rural areas.
"Anaerobic digestion" (point 4) or algae biomass could become sustainable alternatives to fossile fuels, knowing that, of course, the aim of the game is not to "maximiz(e) methane production", methane being great fuel, but also a gas much more damaging than CO2 when it comes to greenhouse effect.

"Recycling of landfill-bound waste" (point 3) is not a new idea, and progress can be made simply by optimizing existing processes. For instance, the Nowon-Dongdaemun waste valorization center used to be lagging behind Seoul's three other centers, working at 67% capacity compared to 80% for Yangcheon-gu, Mapo-gu, and Gangnam-gu. Series of reunions helped close the gap within only 100 days, and even led to reductions in production costs.

Since their promotion was already a priority for the previous administration, Seoul is more in the implementation stage for LED technologies (points 5-6). The city just signed a MOU*** with the 206 member strong Korea LED Association (KLEDA - kleda.or.kr) to replace, with a 40% discount on materials and installation, all the lightings in the underground parking facilities of 1.2 million apartments and 800,000 business buildings by 2014, with hospitals and convenience stores as potential future targets. Those who cannot invest even at that discounted price will continue paying on their following electricity bills as if there were no savings, until the investment is fully paid for. Furthermore, the equivalent of 1% of the equipment will help finance energy for underprivileged citizens. The estimated economy of energy is 297 GWh or KRW 32.7 bn per year.

At our micro level, we're far from producing that much energy with our few solar panels, but they do trim off great chunks of our electricity bill. Even considering the fact that, if you play by the rules and install separate counters, you end up paying more VAT than you should. But that's part of the game. When you want green back, you don't always expect greenbacks.

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*see previous focuses on environment, for instance "Electric buses, Smart Chargers : Seoul is really getting serious", "Seoul Rooftops Go Green", "Public bike rental services bloom in Seoul and around"...
**"Technology to be developed to generate hydroelectric power in Seoul"
***"Seoul to distribute 2 million LED lights by 2014"