EXCLUSIVE-Second interview with KIM Jong-un

Three years after our groundbreaking "Exclusive interview with KIM Jong-un", we were contacted by his PR manager Kellyanne Conway during the week she was grounded by her other authoritarian client. Turned out the North Korean leader enjoyed our chat following the purge of his uncle JANG Song-thaek, and wanted a similar 'madvertorial' after removing his half-brother KIM Jong-nam.

Seoul Village: "Thanks for having me again, I hope I'll survive this interview as well".

KIM Jong-un: "It's up to you. Go ahead, make my day."

SV: "... well, I'll then start by congratulating you for your amazing foresight: three years ago, you told me you would get rid of Jong-nam, which you just did, and you envisioned the future of governmental relations with the press through your JDIZ concept."

KJU: "Right. See how Sean Spicer implements Donald Trump's new Journalist Defense Identification Zone? Now that's another YUGE wall all Americans will end up paying for."

SV: "What do you expect from the new Administration in Washington?"

KJU: "I see a 'kindread' spirit, another dangerous malignant narcissist with the potential to blow up the planet. The question is: between the two of us, who will be the first to fulfill his Nero destiny?"

SV: "Wait - your nuclear arsenal is already big enough to destroy the whole planet?"

KJU: "Do you really believe everything Don and I say? Don't you know that our propaganda arm KCNA stands for Kellyanne Conway North Korean Agency? Besides, our WMDs reach far beyond nukes. I love the smell of VX in the morning... "

SV: "I was about to get to this issue. Using Weapons of Mass Destruction in a public space in a supposedly friendly country, how is that supposed to help your push for lifting sanctions?"

KJU: "That was a surgical strike. Here, 'mass destruction' only refers to the overweightness of that ENEMY OF THE PEOPLE."

SV: "KIM Jong-nam was a journalist?"

KJU: "Like Donald, by 'enemy of the people' I mean 'anyone who can expose my personal illegitimacy'. Jong-nam not only came before me in the line of succession, but he also tried to grow even fatter than me. WON'T HAPPEN."

SV: "Are you following South Korean politics?"

KJU: "Of course we are! Vladimir and I have hacked all the candidates. BIGLY."

SV: "And who's your favorite to succeed PARK Geun-hye?"

KJU: "Even with the help of WikiLeaks, our dear LEE Jae-myung will have some problem winning in a truly democratic system: unlike America and North Korea, South Korea doesn't have an electoral college. SAD."

SV: "Looks like you'll have to cope with MOON Jae-in, because BAN Ki-moon is out, and AHN Hee-jung seems too far behind now."

KJU: "Whatever. Anyway, NOT A BAN."

SV: "Last but not least topic..."

KJU: "... CHINA!!!"

SV: "... China yes. How can you recover from their recent tightening on coal imports from North Korea?"

KJU: "No sweat! Donald and I have already started working on bringing back jobs in coal mining, as part of the NATO."

SV: "?!?"

KJU: "NATO, the North Korea - America Treaty Organization. It also includes partnerships in internment camps for migrants. GREAT DEAL."

SV: "While we're at it, how's your Make Army Great Again program doing? Do you still have Songun completely under your belt?"

KJU: "As always - the biggest bowel movement the world has ever seen!"

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AHN Hee-jung joins the fray

Frankly, there is no way out of impeachment for PARK Geun-hye - the sole story about that blacklist of artists should suffice to seal her fate. Now she's just trying to delay the process, wishing her judges were about to retire. 

Meanwhile, her partner in crime CHOI Soon-sil keeps denying the obvious, and pushing arrogance to new levels. The way she counterattacked her prosecutors by demanding proofs and testimonies, you'd believe she knows in which Thai river she had KO Young-tae's remains fed to the fishes.

"Dirty sleep", an art work featured in a special 'freedom of expression' exhibition at the National Assembly hall: PARK Geun-hye sleeps as the Sewol sinks, and CHOI Soon-sil provides syringes - 20170123 Chosun Ilbo "국회 의원회관에 '나체 상태의 박근혜 대통령' 그림 논란"

Again, let's hope justice will prevail (see "Of power vacua and excesses").

Now the question remains who's next in South Korea's doomest office (after acting prez HWANG Kyo-ahn), and in that regard, recent days have brought interesting developments: BAN Ki-moon has totally screwed up his return to Korea, LEE Jae-myung confirmed his candidacy, and AHN Hee-jung pulled out a perfect launch. Can MOON Jae-in maintain his lead until late Spring?

To sum it up: 

1) Korea needs a uniting, moderate, ideology-free leader to leverage on the formidable grassroot movement that saw 96% of the population stand up for democracy.

2) The political landscape is ultra-fragmented: Saenuri completely imploded around pro/anti-Park lines, and rivalries mar the opposition.

3) Two heavyweights lead in the polls, but fail to convince a majority. 

4) MOON Jae-in struggles to pass for a uniter after having embodied systematic opposition for years, and bullied AHN Cheol-soo out of the 2012 race. He's in Hillary's position: the best chance to win on paper, but a jaded politician, and a disliked favorite.

5) BAN Ki-moon had the resume: the UN international aura, ROH Moo-hyun-friendly enough to please the Left, conservative and reform-averse enough to please the Right, a soft spoken gentleman old enough to play the role of the benevolent patriarch of the nation..., but if he shined as a minister, BAN never proved his prowess in the driver's seat, and from the start he let his campaign be hijacked by a Dark Side of the Force desperate to find a leader following PGH's collapse. He had the ideal profile to reach from the center across the aisles, but it will be hard for him to claim the 96% after a week where he distinguished himself by calling PARK Geun-hye and meeting LEE Myung-bak.

6) If LEE Jae-myung gained momentum during the mass demonstrations, his controversial, Trump-style temperament undermines his candidacy. Should he leave the leading trio by the end of next month, his chances would be very slim.

7) It seems that whatever PARK Won-soon says or does, he can't rise in the polls. The Seoul mayor positioned himself as a reformer and an innovator, and counts on the inauguration of Seoul Station 7017 to feed the buzz, but his craze for media attention, very efficient at the local and international levels, tends to backfire at the national level.

8) The third man could turn out to be a different AHN than last time: AHN Cheol-soo did build a political base, but the democratic tsunami reshuffled the whole deck, and ACS is not as inspiring as he initially looked. AHN Hee-jung starts apparently without any base, but he's perfectly leveraging that freedom, and judging by its PR campaign and his no-nonsense, anti-populist positions, he can claim both conservatives and reformers. A convincing interview with Chosun Ilbo, followed by a praising editorial from Maeil Business Newspaper the day before he announced, and he put himself at the center of the map, making LEE Jae-myung's announcement almost inaudible.

As MOON Jae-in flies, BAN Ki-moon stagnates, and the LEE Jae-myung bubble deflates, AHN Hee-jung gains positive reviews for his Chosun interview - 20170122 - twitter.com/theseoulvillage/status/822980039536820224)

If by end of February, polls show AHN Hee-jung closer to - or even part of - the top 3, he stands a clear chance. The weeks to come will clearly test MOON's grip on the lead, and BAN's capacity to reset his campaign.


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Of power vacua and excesses

As expected (see "The Fall Of The House Of Park"), there's a de facto power vacuum in South Korea, where President PARK Geun-hye, plagued by the CHOI Soon-sil scandal, is every day more unlikely to finish her mandate.

The Korean people is quasi unanimous, and honored this nation's democracy through the most massive and perfect demonstration in the heart of Seoul.

If ever the stubborn PGH doesn't seem ready to step down, it's basically a matter of how and when. The opposition demands an immediate resignation, which would allow MOON Jae-in, AHN Cheol-soo, and PARK Won-soon to run, and what's left of the ruling party would prefer an impeachment that would take much more time, and allow BAN Ki-moon to join the race. 

The Saenuri implosion was already acted when the pro-Park faction confirmed its lock on the party, months ago. And such conservative media as Chosun Ilbo and Joongang Ilbo / JTBC are playing active roles in exposing scandals as they come.

Beyond CHOI Soon-sil and PARK Geun-hye, the case of WOO Byung-woo could turn out to be the most crucial for the future of South Korea democracy, because it exposes corruption at the core of justice. Judging by the doubts surrounding the former prosecutor's own prosecutors, it won't be easily done.

I often worry about the fragile balance of powers in South Korea (for instance in 2012 - see "25 years later"). And that essential dimension of democracy must be reaffirmed now that democracy itself is struggling across the globe.

Without waiting for the next lame duck to claim Cheong Wa Dae, the Asia Pacific region is celebrating the arrival of yet another controversial leader with a questionable vision of democracy: this scary motley crew (KIM Jong-un, Vladimir PUTIN, Shinzo ABE, Narendra MODI, XI Jinping, Rodrigo DUTERTE...) welcomes Donald TRUMP, who will soon have an access to both the nuclear and the POTUS twitter account codes. 

What could possibly go wrong?

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The Fall Of The House Of Park

When PARK Geun-hye was elected, I seriously wondered "who won the elections?", and "if she's running her own show" (see "The Anipang Election: Park wins big, but who won?").

Back then, I was mostly thinking about the potential influence of such political cliques as die-hard PARK Chung-hee loyalists, revisionists she never truly distanciated herself from. I had no clue about her dependence to the guru dynasty CHOI Tae-min - CHOI Soon-sil.

That didn't come as a surprise in a nation where so many charlatans gravitate around powerful people, exploiting their weaknesses as easily as they do with 'commoners', only with greater reward.

And in Korea, when the gimchi hits the fan, it can get so grossly messy that you often feel like crying and laughing out loud at the same time (ICYMI read T.K.'s scarily hillarious summary on the CHOI Soon-sil scandal "The Irrational Downfall of Park Geun-hye" - 20161029).

This quasi legally incapacitated president simply has to step down. But this morning, if PARK agreed on inquieries, she was still in denial of being under influence.

She appointed a ROH Moo-hyun-friendly PM, KIM Byeong-joon, and a KIM Dae-jung-friendly Chief of Staff, Han Gwang-ok, to take care of a good part of the business... if not to put some pressure on the opposition, and to welcome them on board her sinking vessel.

By doing that, she also potentially forges a direct competitor to MOON Jae-in and AHN Cheol-soo for next year's presidential elections. Meanwhile, PARK Won-soon tries to seize the president's political suicide as swiftly as he did for his predecessor in Seoul City Hall OH Se-hoon, and to make the most of the few weeks remaining before BAN Ki-moon can declare himself.

One thing seems sure: if the UNSG runs, it won't be under the Saenuri banner. The name was chosen by CHOI Soon-sil, and the party is bound to implode following this latest twist in the destructive pro-anti-Park tug of war.

So much for PARK Geun-hye's heritage. And beyond that, for her family's legacy.

PARK Chung-hee didn't have the guts to terminate the CHOI Tae-min imposture in its infancy, and ever since, his daughter and her siblings have paid the price. Now this family mess has contaminated the whole nation.

Here's how, four years ago, I concluded my remarks on PGH's election: "It's up to her (or to the people who drive the vehicle) to decide where to lead the nation, and what kind of final legacy she wants her family to leave. Let's see how this blank page evolves. And how history is being written. Including and particularly the past, in school textbooks."
 
And timely, school textbooks tainted by CHOI's fingerprints have just be confirmed*...

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* see "Protesting 'Soon-sil textbook'" (The Korea Times 20161103)

Feel The BAN

Each time BAN Ki-moon visits Korea, rumors of a presidential bid get louder, and this time has already set the bar even higher.

As we saw recently with that major 'bankimoonization' attempt (in "Descendants of the Sun(glasses)"), the first bullets have already been fired against a man whose popularity make all his rivals nervous.

Yet BAN owes more his popularity, in this utterly politically divided nation, to his no-drama style and prestigious job than to his substance. Actually, just days ago*, The Economist slammed BAN Ki-moon as "painfully ineloquent, addicted to protocol and lacking in spontaneity and depth", adding that he was "viewed as the dullest - and among the worst" U.N. Secretary-Generals. Ouch. Did they spare him a Godwin's Law moment only because one of his predecessors, Kurt Waldheim, already claimed it - and deservedly so?

Ouch

Again, BAN has a lot to lose in joining the race for a job I wouldn't wish to my worst enemy. Furthermore, his commanding lead in the polls of last February has all but melted**. Should he still decide to run, he probably wouldn't announce it while in the most neutral of all offices, which would leave him almost a year to campaign until the 2017 elections.

Even if BAN has positioned himself above the right-and-left rift, he would need a real political machine to reach power, not just the personal foundation about to be established in his name (see "Speculations circle Ban’s presidential bid"), which will probably serve as a think tank and non-political vehicle.

As it happens, the leaderless Saenuri Party is looking for a uniting figure, particularly following its crushing defeat in recent legislative elections. Not everybody would welcome him there, and even conservative media like Chosun Ilbo mention The Economist's prosecution speech.

And as the ultimate kiss of death, more or less formal invitations to run for Saenuri have been issued by pro-PARK Geun-hye lawmakers, a godsend for rival parties, who can then say that if BAN runs now, that's under that highly unpopular and divisive banner.

That's exactly what PARK Jie-won did. An assembly leader representing the People's Party of AHN Cheol-soo, who also claims the 'uniter reaching across the aisle' sweet spot, PARK said: "BAN has considerable political ambitions, and if the pro-PARK Geun-hye faction in the ruling Saenuri Party rallies around him, he could run for president"***. In other words: if BAN runs, that's because he's not the one he says he is. 

PARK Jie-won's declaration was a bit more subtle than that of Seoul mayor PARK Won-soon, who all but advocated a 'BAN BAN' (as in 'ban BAN', not as in 'fifty-fifty' in Korean - 반반) by saying that BAN should respect the tradition of U.N. Secretary-Generals staying away from national governments after their mandates****.

Unlike AHN Cheol-soo, PARK Won-soon turned his critic in a negative way, and he delivered it himself instead of sending a lieutenant. Make it personal, or stay above the debate?

At least, to feed the buzz in Korea, you don't have to play it Trump-style.

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* see "Master, mistress or mouse?" (The Economist - 20160521)
** Yonhap-KBS (Feb 2016): BAN Ki-moon 28.3%, MOON Jae-in 17.9%. Realmeter (Apr 2016, right after the elections): MOON 42.8%, BAN 42.3% ("Moon, Ban in neck-and-neck race in poll")
*** "UN chief Ban could run for president under right conditions: opposition whip" (Yonhap News - 20160524)
**** "Seoul mayor says Ban should respect U.N. recommendation on political activities" (Yonhap News - 20160525)

Descendants of the Sun(glasses)

I confess I never watched the "Descendants of the Sun" drama. This 2016 military hero sporting sunglasses reminds me too much of that 1986 Tom 'Top Gun' Cruise, if not that 1966 Park 'Retaliator' Chung-hee. Plus I don't feel comfortable with a Korean national broadcaster glamorizing too much the military when on the other side of the East Sea, Shinzo Abe is trying everything he can, from anime to music groups, to promote JSDF to younger generations... Well you do need sunglasses to face such a Rising Sun revival, but still...

I don't know if KBS aired a marathon of the "Descendants of the Sun" drama on election day to keep young voters home, but in spite of a record audience for the shows, the ruling party lost its majority.

That political drama came as a personal blow for Descendant of the Sunglasses PARK Geun-hye, as well as for at least two candidates to her succession:
- KIM Moo-sung bowed out after the debacle. Anyway, he didn't stand a chance for 2017 (at least he won't even need to be "bankimoonized" - see further down)
- OH Se-hoon failed miserably in his risky Jongno-gu bet* - over and out for politics?

Internal wars are likely to rage within a Saenuri Party that already started imploding when PGH pushed for her own candidates, provoking an outflow of defectors. Which currents will emerge around which leaders? And who will play the role of ROH Moo-hyun's MOON Jae-in for PARK, CHOI Kyoung-hwan?

If you think the time has come for BAN Ki-moon to rise, think again: just days after the elections, some of his best enemies made public his embarrassing reports to CHUN Doo-hwan about KIM Dae-jung in exile in the States...

BAN Ki-moon's dream for 2017 stop here (his 1985 reports on KIM Dae-jung to CHUN Doo-hwan) (twitter.com/theseoulvillage/status/721879593443921920 - 20160416)
via @annafifield**

AHN Cheol-soo dreams of drafting disillusioned Saenuri figures with his brand new 38-MP-strong People's Party. If the Minjoo Party claimed much more seats (122), MOON Jae-in can't claim it as a personal victory. His party recorded its first win as soon as he left its leadership - as if even the old KIM Chong-in, who worked for CHUN Doo-hwan and PGH, looked less a figure of the past, and a better leader for the left than him. Worse: Honam (Jeolla-do) voted massively for AHN's camp. And MOON let other faces get the spotlights, like KIM Boo-kyum, who triumphed in conservative Daegu.


If PARK Won-soon didn't run last week, he doesn't hide his ambitions for 2017. Depending on how AHN manages to build on his momentum, the Seoul mayor could have a tough time playing the independent leader. And MOON won't let him hijack Minjoo that easily. 

The months to come could be fun watching... and feature more bankimoonizations.

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* see "OH Se-hoon returns... but did he ever leave?"
** see "반기문, ‘김대중 귀국’ 미국 내 여론 동향 보고…미, 전두환 정부 ‘호헌 지지’ 요청에도 끝내 거절"

Four More Years?

Four years after the passing of his dad KIM Jong-il, KIM Jong-un celebrates the end of his first term as DONK (Dictator Of North Korea).

So far, his reelection campaign looks much quieter, and barely less bloody, than the GOP primaries.

Breaking: Kim Jong-un declares war to Donald Trump (20150821 - twitter.com/theseoulvillage/status/634558694936604672)

So between two rumored purges, KJU can try to improve his limited skills in international affairs, where this Dr. Evil looks more like a Mini-me.

Particularly after a year marked by face-losing moments with China: North Korean envoys getting folding chairs far from the V.I.P.s during the 70th anniversary of the end of WWII, Chinese top brass deciding to not attend the Moranbong concert... So much for Pander Diplomacy: did KJU really think that sending his former girlfriend's band would buy him a ticket to Beijing? and did he have to drop that H-Bomb remark at that moment?

Exclusive: here's the technical schema of North Korea's H-Bomb (20151210 poktanju - twitter.com/theseoulvillage/status/674879744454725632)

2015 was also marked with further pressure from the U.N. on Human Rights issues, and a non-visit by its Secretary General. Resorting to more classic Baekdu-style diplomacy, KJU seems to have sent a formal invitation to BAN Ki-moon by sentencing Canadian pastor LIM Hyeon-soo to a life sentence.

Anyway, expect more weird messages from beyond the DMZ. Preferably not as macabre as those ghost ships drifting towards Japanese shores...


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Seoul Station 7017: Forget 2017?

Seoul city announced Friday that MOUs have been signed with five downtown buildings for connections to the future Seoul Station 7017.

In case you missed the previous episodes listed below, the highly controversial SS7017 (a.k.a. Seoul's Highline) is Mayor PARK Won-soon's pet project to crown his mandate in 2017:

• January (among Seoul's urban regeneration projects): "Diagonal crossings, High Lines, and Business Verticals (how pedestrians and businesses remodel Seoul... and vice-versa)"
• January (focus): "Seoul Station Elevated Park (Seoul Station Project 7017? The Seoul Vine?) - An Update"
• May (Winy Maas wins the competition): "Seoul Station 7017 blooms into Seoul Arboretum"
• July (mention of Seoul's intense lobbying / advertising / calls for suggestions): ""Sejongdaero" competition officially started"

Here are the 5 buildings, all in Jung-gu (I listed their addresses), all around the Toegye-ro / Tongil-ro intersection facing the station:

• Metro Tower (10, Toegye-ro) 
• Daewoo Foundation Building (18, Toegye-ro) 
• Hotel Manu (19, Toegye-ro) 
• Seoul Square (416, Hangang-daero) 
• Yonsei Jedan Severance (Yonsei Severance Foundation - 10, Tongil-ro)

Among other buildings likely to plug in later, the Namdaemun Church, and the Hilton Hotel*, which itself shall serve as a gateway to Namsan Park. Seoul confirmed April 2017 as the target for the inauguration.

*

Now these MOUs were signed in January. So what's the actual message? 

That Seoul Mayor is not giving up his dream.

The Seoul Station  7017 project is officially dead because national authorities have blocked it for many good reasons: major safety concerns, awful design ruining the surroundings of the old Seoul Station, unsolved traffic issues...

One more good reason is the fact that many people don't want PARK Won-soon to parade with a spectacular new landmark just months before the 2017 presidential elections. If Saenuri's KIM Moo-sung is closing the gap, PARK is still leading in polls that, one should note, don't include BAN Ki-moon (will the UNSG run for South Korea's most suicidal job?):

PARK Won-soon still leads in polls for 2017 prez, but KIM Moo-sung up (NB: no BAN Ki-moon): gallup.co.kr/gallupdb/reportContent.asp?seqNo=677
(twitter.com/theseoulvillage/status/632069833425727489)

Every month of delay makes less likely a delivery on time for the elections.

Personally, I wouldn't have bet on this very risky SS7017 as my main option for a landmark. For instance, solving the Seun Sangga conundrum was also very tricky (starting with safety issues), but much more important for Seoul's balance and urban regeneration.

Still time to reassess priorities, I guess.


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* The Hilton was not among the 5, as I wrongly thought last Friday:

Seoul announced 5 MOU with buildings for connection with Seoul Station 7017 (Hilton etc). National authorities nixed projects, PWS needed lobbying power. (twitter.com/theseoulvillage/status/634720342787796996)

The Bulldozer Canal

President-elect-and-under-judicial-threat LEE Myung-bak confirmed his ambition to build a canal joining the Han and the Nakdong rivers during his first (and theorically only, unless he also manages to remodel the constitution) mandate.

One more project on the Seoul - Busan axis ? I'd rather see Korea build a circular bullet train line to balance the country's infrastructures with a milder impact on the environment. Or even better, invest in the much needed restoration of Seoul's subway stations, many of which are plagued with asbestos dust falls (30% of Seoul Metro's employees are rumored to be suffering from this cancerous material).

As the name of his Cyworld blog shows*, "Bulldozer" LEE is ambitious : one year to plan, three years to build (2009-2011), and one year to campaign for a second term. Not much time to think and plenty of time to sink ?

The former CEO of Hyundai Engineering and Construction wants his pharaonic project to be 100% financed by private companies. All chaebols have already been invited to a roundtable, and Middle East investors are likely to pour the bulk of the $15 bn announced.

A quick reality check already showed the actual number would be triple that... and a tedious real estaty check would probably multiply it tenfold.

A streamlet as a Mayor, a canal as a President... should LEE become the next BAN Ki-moon, he'd probably dig a new ocean or at least an Asian equivalent to the Mediterranean sea.


* http://mbtious.cyworld.com/