Teflon

On June 3, Korea will pick its next president. We already know that this president won't be a woman, because the nation returned to its usual 'manel' mode:

'Cherchez la femme'... 8 candidates, 8 men.

We also already know that this president will be LEE Jae-myung, bar some last minute surprise. LEE is not running any risks, behind a bulletproof jacket that has become a marketing gimmick ever since he wore one when summoned to court (look, I'm not a bad guy, I survived an assassination attempt, remember*?). 

There is no way PPP candidate KIM Moon-soo can catch up with his rival. Not because he failed to unite with LEE Jun-seop (a blessing in disguise: that toxic mysoginist would have torpedoed him like he almost sunk YOON Suk-yeol three years ago), but because he refused to unite with HAN Duck-soo, which doesn't look good when you aim at uniting a nation.

HAN Duck-soo could have defeated LEE. Like YOON in 2022, less for his own qualities than for the defaults of his rival. HAN would have easily collected the votes of never-LJM democrats: he wasn't the power hungry extremist LEE tried to depict; just a dull civil servant who put country over party, and also worked for KIM Dae-jung and ROH Moo-hyun.

Come to think of it, neither of the two leading candidates should be in this race today. KIM because HAN was not a political animal but a reluctant, suicidal candidate, and LEE because he was ruled guilty of an offense that should prevent him from running for five years, but the Supreme Court didn't go all the way and declare him ineligible. 

The institution simply stated that LEE was guilty and that the Seoul court had to change its ruling accordingly, blaming it on the way for many irregularities. Of course, that partisan court, which already drew criticism and an overrule for the way it dealt with YOON, postponed its own decision until the last moment, did nothing to fix its own misdeeds before the election. 

So just like TRUMP, Teflon LEE will survive a major judicial blow and cruise to victory. But this taint remains particularly embarrassing, and his teams already suggested a few extreme ways of removing it. Among others:

• create a new law to cancel ongoing cases against a newly elected president (his legislative majority already carved many exotic laws over the past years, but even TRUMP 1.0 couldn't pull that one)
• impeach the head of the Supreme Court
• double the number of Supreme Court justices (!)
• ending the Separation of Powers, a keystone of democracy 
• ... 

Not the best way to mend a nation traumatized by 'Martial Law' YOON Suk-yeol... The word 'dictatorship' has even been used to describe what Korea could become under an almighty LEE, should he prolong his legislative overreach of the past few years. Once elected, will he let bygones be bygones, or will he double down and go full TRUMP? Of course, LJM is much smarter and less egotistical than DJT, but there's little chance he will reduce a grip on justice he's been trying to strengthen for years. Korea has been in a constitutional crisis since 2020, and the balance of power is at stake.

Like for all his predecessors, LEE Jae-myung will have a right to make mistakes, but not on the fundamentals of democracy. This nation can't afford one more screw up (well that's what I wrote before the previous elections; and look what happened).

Of course, we'll also see how LEE will handle other hot potatoes such as:

• the economy: more business savvy and less ideological than MOON on the issue, LEE remains a populist, but there's no coffer left to plunder
• demographics: for the first time in a while, the national birthrate ticked up in 2024 - was it a flash in the pan? can Koreans grow more confident in these troubled times?
• North Korea: charged for instructing illegal transfers to Pyongyang and heading a party that suppressed laws against foreign spies, LEE will probably reach out across the DMZ. Also likely to step back from the close collaboration with Japan and the USA (which would profit China, even if he's not pitching that tune ahead of the elections).
• TRUMP: the anti-US LEE could get along very well with The Donald, and that's not paradoxical since DJT himself is pretty much anti-America. Furthermore, these two highly transactional people who totally reshaped their own parties to their image can find lucrative common ground. Expect fewer US troops in the peninsula.

Anyway, whoever wins, his predecessor YOON Suk-yeol will soon, along with his wife KIM Keon-hee, have more facetime with justice. Even though, the disgraced president managed to invite himself in the campaign by attending the projection of a conspiracy theory film about election fraud... 

Won't Korea's tragic comedy ever end? 

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* see 'Assassination attempt on LEE Jae-myung in Busan'

A Fade Out - Not 'The End'

Missing all Cannes Festival selections for the first time in 26 years came as a brutal yet necessary wake up call for Korean cinema.

Everybody knew the figures were bad, but there was always an opportunity to cheer up on the creative side. This year, no one passed the cut for the Croisette.

And business-wise, the maths don't look good:

• Ticket sales nosedived by 46% between 2019 and 2024, from 226.9 to 123.1M. And Korea was not hit as hard by COVID as France, who shrunk by only 16% (from 213.3 to 181M).
• Premium experiences (4D, norebang-style individual projection rooms, k-pop corn, or high tech retailtainment) don't make up for the decline in the average ticket price (8% last year according to KOFIC). More coupons, more promotions for more budget-conscious viewers.

Don't blame only the usual streaming suspects; the local context clearly didn't help: 

• Koreans have been busy worrying about democracy and demonstrating en masse on the streets 
  
• Koreans don't go and stay out as often and as late as they used to. Even before COVID, the nation's nightlife declined sharply due to abrupt labor reforms - now most restaurants close early, and formerly buzzing areas have become eerily quiet

The near future doesn't look bright because there will be a shortage of new films in 2026: the well of COVID-delayed movies is drying up, and risk-adverse Korean majors have divided by two their number of yearly releases.

Of course, Korea wouldn't be this vulnerable if it weren't that blockbuster-dependent. France's resilience is in great part linked to the diversity of movies and documentaries screened nationwide, and I have already stressed the importance of indie cinema to save Korean cinema as a whole for decades (i.e. 'Saving Korean cinema... and even Chaebolplex').

One of Korean cinema's fundamental problems is that, in this country, most movie theaters are not about culture but about real estate. And like with residential or office real estate, diversity and obvious demographics trends are not really taken into account. Worse, when a movie theater has a unique cultural value, authorities destroy it to make room for a parking lot - yes, our dear Wonju landmark ('Wonju's Academy Theater') was eventually obliterated last October.

Yet. The widening gap between these huge pipes and thinning streams might be the kick in the butt multiplex operators needed. If they don't diversify their offer now, they never will, and they will never survive. They can't wait for Korean majors to de-hibernate. They must leverage their assets to act as cultural leaders, like MK2 in France, with weekly events like encounters with players in the film industry or stimulating lectures on science or culture.

We also see new venues searching for the essence of cinema. From CHO Minsuk's new Seoul Cinematheque, which fosters a dialog with film archives and even provides an outdoor venue to Laika Cinema in Yeonhui-dong, a young, well curated, intimate and cosy boutique theater giving meaningful movies the place they deserve.

And by the way, Korean majors must also seize this kick in the butt as an opportunity to improve their failing business model and to leave their comfort zone without risking much: instead of doing business as usual and betting everything on elusive blockbusters, they should devote a greater share of their budgets to small films, to source the new blood Hallyuwood needs. If you invest in startups, you know most of the time you won't hit the jackpot, but taking more small risks allows you to give disruptors and game changers a chance, to nurture the whole ecosystem. And spotting new talents will become even more vital for Korean majors now that technology enables every creator to make a film. Look how an unknown Latvian creator could claim an Academy Award (Gints Zilbalodis with his lovely 'Flow').

Beyond the movie industry, Korea Inc as a whole can play a role by financing original creations. Hyundai had the brilliant idea to sponsor 'Night Fishing', a short film by MOON Byounggon's 'Night Fishing' starring SON Suk-ku and of course one of its electric cars. The short was screened in 15 CGV theaters for a symbolic price of KRW 1,000. That's not just smart advertising and PPL, that's true cultural leadership contributing to the pedagogy of an audience formatted for blockbusters.

All stakeholders can make a positive difference, even local and national authorities. For instance by subsidizing or offering incentives only to venues devoting a significant share of independent films.

Remember that movie theaters are all about projection. Not only about projecting stuff to consumers, but about projecting people into different contexts and mindsets. We're not entering a dark bubble, we're disconnected from our phones and ambient noise, with unknown people focusing at the same time on the same brain stimulators. And when these stimulators are not the usual formatted algorhythms but creative works of art, each member of the audience sees, remembers, imagines something different, almost like we do by reading a good book. 

Don't worry, this is not The End: after this welcome kick in the ass, Korean cinema will kick ass again. 

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Yoon logically removed - One down, one to go.

As expected - and as the smile on its president MOON Hyung-bae confirmed before he even started talking  -, Korea's Constitutional Court removed impeached president YOON Suk-yeol.

 

The unanimous character of this decision was far less guaranteed, and the unprecedented time taken for this decision probably indicates how difficult it was for this divided and controversial institution to craft a consensual declaration. In order to achieve that, it had to draw the full picture, remind some context, and put some blame on the rival party.

So as was obvious from day one*, YOON had to go not because he started an insurrection (he didn't), but because he took a disproportionate measure (declaring martial law) as a desperate man facing unprecedented obstruction from an opposition that indeed undermined the nation.

There was no better way for the Court to save face; a unanimous decision was crucial to prevent further chaos following months of botched processes and at times farcical episodes that cast serious doubts on the whole judiciary system**.

The PPP logically accepted the decision, calling for a quiet transition and a resolution of the problems that caused YOON's doomed declaration, The DKP claimed victory, sweeping under the rug the finger pointed by the Court at its radical behavior.

So here we are, at most 60 days away from another presidential election.

And just like we pointed out from the day one of that martial law drama*, the question is not whether YOON will go, but whether LEE Jae-myung will once again elude justice to become president.

Let's hope Korea will not replace a stubborn idiot with a selfish bully.

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* see 'Double Feature Night: '12.3 The Day' + 'The President's Last (going with a) Bang''

** see  my Korea Times opinion 'Korea deserves better leadership . . . on both sides' also in my previous post 'Yoon released, level playing field next'

Yoon released, level playing field next?

Today, YOON Suk-yeol was released from jail following a ruling exposing his arrest as illegal and the process behind it as questionable. Prosecutor General SHIM Woo-jung refused to appeal this ruling that confirmed the serious doubts surrounding the way justice and democracy were handled following Yoon's stunning martial law declaration (see below 'Korea needs new leadership... on both sides', my article in The Korea Times last month).

If countless legal and constitutional experts have already denounced the abuses committed over the past few months, this is the first official time justice officially rules foul play. And in a striking parallel between two Prosecutor Generals, SHIM Woo-jung took a stand against LEE Jae-myung's abuses of justice similar to YOON's against MOON Jae-in five years ago.

Public opinion has also shifted, younger generations being particularly angered about the unfairness of a system corrupted to an appalling point. Over the past week, we've learned that MOON's controversial reforms didn't stop at creating a constitutional and judicial monster in the CIO (see article below), but also perverted the election commission into another political tool totally exempt from accountability, its top job being even handed down from father to son. Now calls are mounting to investigate the investigation, starting with the CIO. 

LEE Jae-myung himself may face new challenges within his party. In spite of his own legal problems, he's been parading like an acting president, promising everything and its contrary, claiming his DPK is not progressive, courting both TRUMP and XI. The controversial figure has managed to remove all competitors within the DPK, but it's getting every day more obvious that he is the problem. Like TRUMP corrupted Lincoln's GOP from the inside, LEE Jae-myung keeps defacing the party of KIM Dae-jung and ROH Moo-hyun

I've made the parallel between TRUMP and LEE for years, but it's never been more relevant  than today: fundamentally, both are accused of the same attacks on democracy, particularly regarding the separation and balance of powers. The difference is that with DJT the executive is taking over justice and the legislative power, while with LJM the legislative power is taking over the executive and justice. In both cases, a controversial leader struggling with justice puts himself first and last, and doesn't care about the party or the country.

As for YOON Suk-yeol, if he can feel somehow vindicated for his diagnostic (democracy was under threat at many levels), he may still pay for his radical method of raising the alert (declaring martial law).

This watershed moment comes days before the decision of a Constitutional Court itself under scrutiny for obvious bias and for actions that contradicted both law and its own rules. In such a context, ruling YOON guilty of insurrection would cause a major democratic crisis because it would in itself be equivalent to an insurrection or coup d'etat by LEE and friends. On the other hand, no one expect this LEE-friendly body to fully exonerate the impeached president. 

The only decent way out would be to decide not to decide, and to rule that given the doubts surrounding this whole mess, investigation should start from scratch. 

Better get this right this time. 

And make sure that both sides are fully and fairly investigated

History keeps watching. 

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Korea deserves better leadership . . . on both sides

By Stephane Mot

2025-02-03

The chaotic mess that followed Yoon Suk Yeol’s martial law folly is an embarrassment for Korean politicians who, unlike in 2016, failed to rise to the democratic challenge.

Democracy relies on a very delicate balance of power where the independence of justice remains one of the trickiest goals to achieve, and Korea is by no means an exception. Here, justice plays an even more important role since the balance tilts toward the legislative power in a unicameral system with a single-term limit for presidents.

Following an event as exceptional as a martial law declaration, democracy and justice must work flawlessly: History is watching.

In 2016, Korea experienced a rare moment of grace when, except for a minority of hardcore supporters, the whole nation united to demand and obtain the impeachment of then-President Park Geun-hye. Democracy triumphed and its very fundamentals were at the core of everyday discussions: what is justice, what is the separation of powers, what are checks and balances … This unity was also made possible because, from the beginning, the Ewha Womans University students who started the mobilization around the Park scandal demanded that the movement remained apolitical.

The democratic surge against Yoon’s martial law did start on a bipartisan basis (the move was immediately denounced by leaders from both sides, and swiftly canceled in a unanimous vote), but partisan politics quickly took over.

Yoon’s disastrous move logically resulted in his impeachment, but instead of following the natural process led by the Constitutional Court, the opposition launched parallel investigations to speed up the calendar. Because Yoon was not the only target of justice, and from Dec. 3 the key question has never been whether he will be removed from power (he should and he will), nor even when (in any case by mid-May, or six months after his impeachment), but whether Lee Jae-myung will pull a Trump and elude justice until the presidential elections, which must be held within 60 days following the president’s removal.

Substituting the calendar of justice with the calendar of politics is dangerous for democracy, and when you try to score political goals at all costs, you end up scoring own goals in front of history. As the Republican Party just demonstrated in the U.S., you can at the same time win an election and lose your soul. And just like Lincoln would hardly recognize Trump’s GOP, Kim Dae-jung and Roh Moo-hyun would not necessarily condone this Democratic Party of Korea’s (DPK) handling of justice.

Make no mistake, as president, Yoon himself displayed a very selective vision of justice. And of course, his People Power Party is far closer to Trump’s, particularly with its own "basket of deplorables" (from anti-feminists to ultra-conservative bigots, K-MAGA conspiracy theorists and hardcore history revisionists … ). But it takes two to tango, and there are good and bad guys on both sides of the aisle.

The DPK’s first miscalculation was the express and frankly unnecessary impeachment of then-acting President Han Duck-soo. This manufactured crisis confirmed that party leaders were in a rush and didn’t care about the economic or international consequences of their actions.

But weaponizing the Corruption Investigation Office for High-ranking Officials (CIO) was clearly a moral hazard. Yes, it undoubtedly helped the party achieve its goal of speeding up the judiciary calendar and serving Lee, but at what cost?

With its spectacular strikes, borderline legal tactics and at times comical blunders (not to mention unanswered questions regarding its scope and legitimacy), the CIO drew criticism from both sides and replaced the due process of justice with a tragic circus that not only contaminated a Constitutional Court forced to take sides or to turn a blind eye, but also cast serious doubts about the impartiality of the whole system.

Worse: The CIO’s shortcomings also revived the key controversies that surrounded its creation five years earlier. At the core of justice reforms that disrupted the balance of power and brought confusion between justice and police, undermining the core missions of the latter, the new institution appeared like a special purpose vehicle, a partisan tool tailor-made to "search and kill" any investigation against former President Moon Jae-in’s administration and friends.

So using and abusing this very CIO against Yoon, a liberal darling who before falling down his own rabbit hole became the right wing’s champion precisely because he resisted these controversial reforms as well as abuses reminiscent of the despicable prosecutor Woo Byung-woo ... that's not the smartest message to send if you want to restore trust in the system.

Furthermore, this messy, undignified rush is deliberately depriving Korea of a most vital democratic debate on the core issues raised by Yoon’s folly, in particular the accusations of abuse of power made not only against him, but also against the legislative majority. This general lack of transparency, this confusion, fed feelings of frustration and unfairness, logically contributing to the rise of the disgraced president and his party in opinion polls when Yoon should have remained at rock bottom, like Park before him. As much as wild right-wing conspiracy theories, this certainly fueled Korea’s own Jan. 6 moment (the inexcusable yet fully predictable and preventable Jan. 19 assault on the court that issued Yoon’s arrest warrant).

Between Yoon’s suicidal martial law declaration and the opposition’s counterproductive barrage, Korean politicians from both sides only managed to demonstrate their lack of judgment and their unfitness to lead the nation toward actual justice, fairness and unity.

The failed reforms of 2020 must be fixed, checks and balances restored, and new, moderate leadership must emerge on both sides. If now is certainly not the best time to allow a second term for presidents, implementing a two-round system for the next presidential elections would be the best way to let all voices be heard in the first round, to help more transparent alliances form before the second and to erect an additional hurdle against populism.

Stephane Mot is author of “Seoul Villages - Guisin-dong and other Seoul Villages."

Seoul Village Season XIX

At long last, Korea's miserable month of December 2024 is over. You'd think it'd be hard to top two presidential impeachments sandwiched between two major disasters (YOON Suk-yeol's short-lived martial law and Jeju Air's tragic plane crash), but 2025 doesn't bode very well either for a nation on the ropes. 

Whoever is the next president will have a hard time rebuilding hope and trust at home as well as overseas, provided that's on their menu.

In the short term, acting president CHOI Sang-mok is unlikely to achieve anything significant and until the elections at least, the opposition is unlikely to contribute to reviving an anemic economy it's been undermining for years. As for the long term. this Dark December most probably annihilated that recent, timid demographic uptick (belated COVID rebound?) as radically as those politically motivated budget cuts sacrificing Korea's future growth engines (goodbye innovation and quantum computing).

Korea's competitive edge and survival are also at risk with the return of Trump to the White House.

In the 1991 blockbuster Terminator 2: Judgement Day, Arnold Schwarzenegger returned as a force of good in total contrast with a first opus where he pretty much destroyed everything. But that's fiction and in Trump's T2, The Donald is unlikely to fundamentally change characters. Actually, DJT already hired 'Dark MAGA' Elon Musk for the role of Robert Patrick: T-!000, a fitter, slicker, updated version of the bulletproof killing machine programmed to help Skynet / Space X control the World. Anyway, doomsday scenario or not, this sequel promises to be less boring than Kamala Harris' short-lived B2: Statu Quo.

Both sides of the DMZ are watching closely.

KIM Jong-un knows he can't trust Trump, and he's already busy with another transactional buddy, Vladimir Putin. With his 'Juche Line' and 'Sunshine Line' in tatters, KIM somehow balances the 'Beijing Line' with a 'Kremlin Line' that provides oil, currencies, and statesman credentials against disposables (weapons and cannon fodder). 

Whoever is in charge in Seoul, lines will change and the US military presence of South Korea will be reevaluated by a man who already proved he could betray and abandon brothers in arms (ask the Kurds and Afghans if they believe one second Trump's commitment to Koreans is ironclad). We know Trump wants to withdraw, and that Mike Pompeo advised him (as Mark Esper revealed) to delay such a risky move to his second term. We know that this time he'll be surrounded by incompetent yes-men in the White House and in a greater section of Congress. We also know that Marco Rubio wouldn't be okay with abandoning Asia to China, but that he won't be calling the shots...

Should LEE Jae-myeong become the next president, he could even accelerate the withdrawal process. And he certainly wouldn't compensate with a NATO style alliance with Japan and Taiwan, like the one floated here and there as a second Trump mandate looked inevitable.

But LEE himself is a very transactional guy, and he could sing Trump a different kind of serenade than the one YOON sang to Biden. 

Besides, Korea Inc have more than a few chips on the table. Samsung, SK Hynix and Co. also fear another kind of withdrawal: the subsidies guaranteed under Joe Bden's CHIPS act. CHEY Tae-won already warned SK might reconsider its massive investment in Indiana, where both senators are Republicans... like in Texas, where Samsung extends its Austin plant and builds a new one in Taylor...

At worst very conflictual, at best very transactional, this year of the blue snake looks pretty sneaky. 

Nonetheless, let's wish ourselves a happy new year 2025.

"#Trump returns. To #KyoboBookstore, #Seoul:" (20241129 post by Seoul Village on Bluesky)

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Masks off

Impeaching acting president HAN Duck-soo was a predictable yet unfortunate move for LEE Jae-myung. We already knew that he would try anything to rush the full takeover of the judiciary system by his legislative majority before his trials and appeals go all the way, and we already knew that they could create any artificial conflict to impeach officials and paralyze the executive power, but the optics of his latest stunt are not very pretty, and kind of bring his own camp almost down to the level of their opponents.

Don't get me wrong: there's no moral equivalence between YOON Suk-yeol's outrageous martial law declaration and LEE's political tactics, but this botched process that even bypassed standard usages to force new supreme justices only feeds YOON's twisted narrative: LEE's DP is abusing its power to de facto rule the nation, and undermining it by forging unnecessary crises. 

If LEE's hardcore fans will applaud a new point scored 'for democracy', his adversaries, including within his party, may be rejoicing for an own goal.

The question is not whether YOON will be impeached, nor even when, but whether LEE will at long last face justice. And whether the good guys within his party, who'd make much better presidents than he, will have the guts to defy him instead of waiting for five years.

Meanwhile, former finance minister CHOI Sang-mok becomes the new acting president in this Squid Game version of the musical chairs.

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On Seoul Station and Seoullo Station, covered and uncovered railways...

Over a year ago, Seoul initiated an overhaul of Seoul Station area that left all options on the table, including covering railways and removing the Seoullo eyesore ('Tear down that Seoullo?'). Here's what they came up with for 2028.

The good news? 

• As expected, goodbye ugly tracks, hello street level vegetation and pedestrian-friendlier infrastructures.
• The original Seoul Station, now Culture Station Seoul 284, recovers its majesty (don't get me wrong, not talking about its Imperial Japan era origin - besides, the architect was inspired by the Lucerne Station in Switzerland).
  
• At least one traffic lane seems to have been removed on the Tongil-ro / Hangang-daero side, at least in front of the old station.
  
• In the same green vein as the Gyeongui Line Forest Park, railways shall be replaced by a linear park that will go all the way to Hangang. 
  

The usual caveats? High rise multipurpose buildings that will coopete with other hubs. 

On the northen section: a cluster of towers between Seosomun Park and... Seoullo?

Now something puzzles me: Seoullo 7117 is still there. Which means that the project was not fully thought through.

At least, this micro heliotropolis connected to all major means of transportation including Incheon Airport looks more integrated to its surrounding neighborhoods than all previous avatars of this decades-old project. 

***

Speaking of public transportation, another update: the elusive Seobu Line could be back on track. This key vertical LRT axis passed an important hurdle at the Ministry of Finance, but the consortium has to be reactivated. Other more or less new projects are in some kind of pipe (a few of them are familiar):

Like Goyang earlier to the north, Anyang city declared its intention to extend it to the south, along with the Wirye Line, from SNU to Anyang Sports Complex and Pyeongchon New Town. It certainly would help Anyang, but could further delay the Northern side of the Seobu Line, which remains with Pyeongchang-dong the biggest hole in Seoul's grid.

The 6 'new' lines in red on the big map above:

• Seobu Line (Saejeol - Seoul National University Entrance) - see previous posts related to it. Note two extensions (in green on the full map) to the existing network: on the Seobu Line from SNU Entrance to SNU, and on the Shillim Line from Saetgang Station to Seobu's third and easternmost station on Yeouido.

• Gangbuk Hoengdang Line (Mok-dong - Cheongnyangni horizontal) - 25.72km, 20 stations that would connect Pyeongchang-dong to the grid.
  

• Ui Line extension (Ui-dong - Banghak-dong) - 4.13km, 6 stations
  

 

• Myeonmok Line (Cheongnyangni - Sinnae-dong) - 9.05km, 12 stations
  

 

• Nangok Line (Boramae Park - Nangyang-dong)

 

• Mok-dong Line (Sinwol-dong - Dangsan Station) 
  

 

Besides, 2 existing lines are upgraded (in blue on the map):

• Line 4 (Danggogae - Namtaeryeong): express
  

• Line 5 (Dongducheon-dong - Gupundari)
  

See all posts related to Seoul Station, transports, and subways.

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